Russia as a gas "threat" to the West

49
Russian intervention in the American elections, the annexation of the Crimea, the support of the dictator Assad, and finally, gas pipes in Europe - all this, according to some Western experts, is a direct challenge to American influence and European stability.





Eduardo Saravalle, Researcher at the Energy, Economy, and Security Program at the Center for New American Security (Washington) "Politico" told about how dangerous Russians can be with their gas and pipes.

Washington has been arguing for several months about Russia's interference in the presidential election. Similar problems are voiced by the European allies of the United States: France and Germany. Moscow’s actions are a direct threat to the authority of Western presidential elections.

However, "the Russian campaign to undermine the United States goes beyond the ballot boxes," the expert said. It also extends beyond the annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea and the support of the Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, the author is sure. One of the current directions of Russian foreign policy, which is not given enough attention, is Moscow’s energy strategy.

Being the second largest producer of natural gas in the world, the analyst recalls, Russia "has leverage over its European customers." Threats to cut off gas supplies are used to incite hostility among European countries. The new pipeline, which Moscow intends to build, can significantly increase this lever of influence: in the future, Russia will increase its share in the German gas market to more than fifty percent. Such a policy in general and this new pipeline in particular “represent a direct challenge to the interests of the United States after World War II regarding stability in Europe,” the author writes.

At the end of April, 2017, the Russian gas giant Gazprom, signed a financial deal for the Nord Stream - 2 pipeline, through which gas from the Ust-Luga district in Russia (located west of St. Petersburg) will go straight through the Baltic Sea to Germany, from where it will be distributed to other European countries. Gas infrastructure is expensive and difficult to build. Once built, pipelines can change gas flows for decades and, at the same time, relations between countries receiving or not receiving gas. If Nord Stream 2 approves environmental impact assessment, this project will strengthen the EU’s dependence on Russian gas and strengthen Moscow’s leverage on key US allies.

Nord Stream - 2 will expand Russia's strong position in European gas markets, already linked to the Nord Stream - 1 pipeline. In 2016, Russia supplied 34% of natural gas to the EU. Nord Stream - 2 will complement the export capacity of Nord Stream - 1. In general, the new pipeline can provide 26 to millions of households with energy in Europe every year!

According to some analysts, Nord Stream 2 will increase the share of Russia in the German gas market by more than 50 percent (in 2015, the figure was 43 percent). Poland already today receives more than two thirds of the consumed natural gas from Gazprom. In addition, supporters of Nord Stream 2 note that over the next twenty years, the European proposal for domestic gas will decrease by 50%. Hence, there are fears: the Russian pipeline compensates a significant part of this potential deficit, further strengthening the European dependence and preventing at the same time gas supplies from other places.

The success of Nord Stream 2 is a reminder to the West that security depends not only on military power, but also on a healthy media environment. The pipeline is a clear attempt by Russia to “divide and conquer Europe,” the author is convinced. The people of the Kremlin are “very smart” and “insidious”: yes, Gazprom has developed an attractive business project, but at the same time the Russians will weaken Europe through the Nord Stream 2 in “three key ways”.

First, the new “stream” will allow Russia to get more leverage over Germany and other European countries. With such a significant share of the natural gas market, Germany will simply be hostage to gas supplies from Russia, especially if Russia decides to raise the price or at the very least reduce supply. This is a “big lever” for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the US and Germany should not think that Russia will never dare to use it.

Secondly, continues Eduardo Saravalle, Nord Stream 2 will allow Russia to bypass Ukraine with gas supplies to the European Union. In other words, if Moscow wishes to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine, it will be able to do this without violating its obligations to Germany and other strong Western European states.

Third, (“perhaps this is the most important thing”), the new gas pipeline may intensify disagreements between the EU states and weaken their resolve regarding sanctions against Moscow imposed for the annexation of the Crimea. By strengthening the links between the EU and Russia’s energy markets, Nord Stream 2 will squeeze other suppliers and draw European countries into complex economic relations with the Russian Federation. This creates a risk to maintain sanctions against Russia: European countries with strong economic ties with Russia will reject these sanctions. Ultimately, the new pipeline will exacerbate the existing split between Europeans, concerned about the growing strength of Russia and opposing its market dominance, and those Europeans who welcome cheap Russian energy and cooperation with Russia in general.

Moscow has already demonstrated in the past its willingness to use its influence as the dominant supplier of natural gas. For example, the Kremlin stopped supplying natural gas to Ukraine in the 2006 year, during the winter 2008-09. and during the conflict in 2015. Historically, the author points out further that Russia also “strategically” sold gas to its customers at various rates and, following its geopolitical ambitions, threatened to cut off energy supplies.

Given the “potential consequences” of Nord Stream 2, the analyst points out that it’s not surprising that many European countries consider energy to be “an important issue of national security.” The small countries of Eastern Europe tend to be less important for the EU’s energy policy than their larger neighbors, but they are especially vulnerable.

It cannot be said that the EU and US politicians do not understand these problems and are not trying to prevent the construction of the Nord Stream - 2. EU officials tried to use regulatory tools and prevent the approval of the next “stream”, and US diplomats urged Denmark to refuse to approve the project. Opponents of the pipeline on both sides of the Atlantic are hoping that "the draconian application of the EU energy rules or the possible decision of the Danish national security authorities may at the last moment disrupt the construction of the pipeline." But today, the expert notes with sadness, we can say the opposite: the gas pipeline “will almost certainly be built.”

The US should also find other ways to reduce Russia's growing influence. For example, Washington needs to "support the construction of LNG export terminals, help create a global market for liquefied natural gas, which will reduce the role of bilateral long-term contracts that allow countries like Russia to block supplies on favorable conditions."

And there are already "some encouraging signs from the Trump administration." In April, Energy Minister Rick Perry announced 2017 approval of the Golden Pass LNG export terminal, and Gary Cohn, director of the National Economic Council, called for an increase in LNG exports.

Countries wary of Russia's energy expansion are aware of the need for potential protection provided by the supply of natural gas from the United States, I'm sure, Saravalle. Lithuania even gave its LNG terminal the name Independence.

* * *


The expert’s message is obvious: the “security” expert is convinced that the Russians, along with gas, transport the ideas of “political intervention” to Europe and are preparing to manipulate the EU countries with a view to further splitting them and refusing Brussels from sanctions. Such a strategy, of course, "creates a threat to the interests of the United States," because it is the United States, according to the expert, "maintain stability in Europe after World War II."

This expert writes nothing about the independence of Europe from the USA. He also does not write about why the United States chooses to solve gas competition issues through political means.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
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    1. +6
      23 June 2017 05: 56
      the "notorious valve" is already referred to as the Strategic Missile Forces ... both are not applied. Assad, Oleg mentioned in passing ... and who dares to voice the version of "Russia's intervention in the Syrian war, because of these" ventels and pipes "... weak? After all, the" hedgehog "is clear that there are not so many" bearded "threats, but their the opportunity, if successful, to influence the affairs of our commodity economy.
      1. +1
        23 June 2017 09: 07
        Europe’s northern neighbor is CIVILIZING. Russia doesn’t have gas everywhere. ((As of 1, the average gasification rate in Russia is 01%, in the countryside - 2016%, Gazprom head Alexei said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin Miller.) And Europe is naughty .. However ..
        1. +3
          23 June 2017 10: 12
          Quote: To be or not to be
          Europe’s northern neighbor is CIVILIZING. Russia doesn’t have gas everywhere. ((As of 1, the average gasification rate in Russia is 01%, in the countryside - 2016%, Gazprom head Alexei said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin Miller.) And Europe is naughty .. However ..

          Everything is simple .. Gas prices in Russia and in Europe differ several times .. alas, until the population can pay gas at European prices, everyone will not be able to see, and given that the gas supply infrastructure in Russia is again much more expensive than in Europe (for distances and take a look at the climate) it’s completely sad .. And indeed, the canceled gas switch off factor has not been canceled ..
          pc: Raising the welfare of citizens of the Russian Federation to the point that they can pay for gas at EU prices is an order of magnitude more difficult than graters for the construction of all kinds of flows .. And by the way, the construction of these flows is one of the tools to raise this welfare ..
          1. +6
            23 June 2017 10: 55
            Quote: max702
            Prices in Russia for gas and in Europe differ several times .. alas, until the population can pay European prices for gas, everyone will not see
            crying
            Quote: max702
            Raising the welfare of citizens of the Russian Federation to the level that they can pay for gas at EU prices
            belay Oh how. Excuse me, but who are you paying for the crop grown in YOUR GARDEN? Look, right to anyone. So why do we have to pay for our gas as in Europe, which they do not have and they buy it. hi
            1. 0
              24 June 2017 05: 37
              So get gas in your garden and don’t pay anyone request
              1. 0
                24 June 2017 15: 35
                Quote: Prjanik
                So get gas in your garden and don’t pay anyone request

                fool It's forever. Just did not try to read.
              2. 0
                25 June 2017 14: 52
                Are you sure that if you, as a citizen of the Russian Federation, get Russian gas at a price for Europe, then you will immediately be happy? Or remember that the bowels of the country and their natural wealth once belonged to all residents, and not to individual businessmen? Do not jerk about the gardens, according to the rules of the hostel of some Eurosports, instead of 13% of the tax, you can get all 50% taxed. Then you just have to fence the garden. On the balcony.
          2. +1
            23 June 2017 11: 59
            "Gas prices in Russia and in Europe vary several times"
            Wages in Russia and in Europe vary several times .. And why ???????? Why a unit of labor of one type in Europe is paid higher under more favorable working conditions. For example: -Doctors. teachers. miners ....
      2. 0
        23 June 2017 11: 54
        Well, a threat. So what? Any normal man who is anally concerned is perceived as a threat. laughing
    2. +5
      23 June 2017 06: 30
      Everything that this Eduardo Saravalle drew to us can only be explained as follows: "Everyone judges to the extent of his depravity." In our place, all these Westerners would have done just that, for them it’s all the norm of things. They, but not us. What were our “ringing” relations with Turkey after the downed SU-24? But we did not stop or reduce gas supplies there. Everything is under the contract. And they’re all exactly on this, oh how they counted! That is exactly what they would have done. But we have proven to the world our reliability as partners in fulfilling our obligations. Let them whisk as they like, paper, as you know, can endure everything, and we prove our reliability by SPECIFIC deeds.
      1. +2
        23 June 2017 06: 38
        Quote: LÄRZ
        What were our “ringing” relations with Turkey after the downed SU-24? But we did not stop or reduce gas supplies there. All by agreement

        Hi Victor, yes it is ... modern geopolitical relations, implicated in money. hi
        1. +3
          23 June 2017 06: 47
          Quote: Andrey Yurievich
          modern geopolitical relations, implicated in money.

          Here are the Americans and dirty tricks to us as soon as they can. Yes, but we are already different (not like in the 70-ies and in the 90-e, ate, understood, received sight) and their strengths decreased, although there was still a lot left. We will "butt"!
          1. +5
            23 June 2017 07: 02
            Quote: LÄRZ
            Yes, but we are already different (not like in the 70s and 90s, ate, understood, received sight)

            we will not talk about low-profit "valuable American papers" purchased by our rulers, about their papers in offshore zones, about their children over the hill, who, having "studied", will return to Russia by no means patriots ... everything is complicated Victor. recourse But we’ll butt, only with whom? Everything is so confused.
            1. +4
              23 June 2017 07: 16
              First, I apologize for starting to respond to the previous message without saying hello. I welcome categorically !!! wink
              we will not talk about “valuable American pieces of paper” purchased by our rulers, about their pieces of paper in offshore zones, about their children over the hill, who, having “learned”, will return to Russia by no means patriots ... everything is complicated Victor.
              When I wrote this, I did not mean these slippery snakes, but all of our majority living in Russia. So to speak, during this time we lost our illusions regarding the Western world. And they realized how different we are in many views, assessments, conclusions ... They have ripened. Have changed. And what they were, they remained so; they froze in their development. They do everything against us from fear of us. Something like this.
              1. +4
                23 June 2017 07: 23
                Quote: LÄRZ
                First, I apologize for starting to respond to the previous message without saying hello.

                yes lan ... his ... Yes
                Quote: LÄRZ
                most living in Russia.

                this is the majority Victor, more and more reminiscent of the Partisan detachments, undernourished, undeveloped, scattered, suspicion
                won by the Supreme Headquarters, and limited in resources. winked
                1. +2
                  23 June 2017 07: 27
                  And what do we have in the "bottom line", how can we answer this Eduardo Saravalle?
                  1. +2
                    23 June 2017 07: 32
                    Quote: LÄRZ
                    And what do we have in the "bottom line", how can we answer this Eduardo Saravalle?

                    Well ... to us with your shock work on our 6 hundredths, so that we depend less on everyone, and the State ... "turn on the brain." Satanovsky said everything over the past "at the nightingale", and here: https: //www.youtube.com/watch? V = wDugY7Rtjlk directly, correctly and honestly. even scared for the man.
                    1. +3
                      23 June 2017 07: 38
                      Quote: Andrey Yurievich
                      well ... to us with shock work on our 6 hundredths

                      God was merciful, I don’t have any hundred. And thanks for the video! I copied the link, later I’ll look through it ("... with feeling, with sense, with separation ...") hi
                      1. +2
                        23 June 2017 07: 46
                        Quote: LÄRZ
                        God was merciful, I don’t have any hundred.

                        Well, you know better Victor. And they help me out. winked hard but his own. Yes But I don’t look at prices for potatoes and carrots, onions and cabbage. But the harvesting generally saves the whole winter.
                        1. +3
                          23 June 2017 08: 01
                          Quote: Andrey Yurievich
                          But I don’t look at prices for potatoes and carrots, onions and cabbage. But the harvesting generally saves the whole winter.

                          1. Nowhere to store from the word "general"
                          2. I live alone. Do you need a lot?
                          3.Familiar acquaintances are, I get for their electrical / electronic work, that would only convey. lol

                          Me (or rather, us) these hundredths also helped out a lot. And the list of preparations for the winter is similar to yours. But that’s all in the past.
                    2. 0
                      23 June 2017 14: 50
                      An independent peasantry is not beneficial to the state.

                      How the Bolsheviks acted with them, you can read here in the articles.

                      Now they are unlikely to starve, but it’s easy to introduce a tax on garden trees and a garden;)
    3. +1
      23 June 2017 07: 07
      And what else can an American "security specialist" say? Only about the Russian “threat” and benefactor of the whole of Europe. United States.
      aware of the need potential protectionprovided by natural gas supplies from the USA

      This "potential protection" will result in a very tidy sum for Europe.
    4. +1
      23 June 2017 07: 21
      Absolutely EVron confused. Do you need gas? I need it. At any price? No, you need cheaper. Here is the pipe. No, you are an insidious Russian bear, you eat me ... Do you need gas? Of course! But you ...
      Well, let's see.
      It’s good, all the same, that Russia has a Strategic Missile Forces. Already these "enlightened geyropeytsy" together with amers Russia would have torn to shreds.
    5. 0
      23 June 2017 07: 21
      the new “flow” will allow Russia to get more leverage over Germany and other European countries. With such a significant share of the natural gas market, Germany will simply become a hostage to gas supplies from Russia, especially if Russia decides to raise the price or, as a last resort, reduce supplies.
      It’s bad with logic and arithmetic, today the gas sphere of Europe is highly dependent on the mood and appetites of Kiev, with the launch of the SP-2 this dependence is greatly reduced or disappears altogether, and it is being replaced by a new one - Germany, but it's the European state, you’ll figure it out. SP-2 is designed to completely intercept the gas flow passing through Ukraine (with a small margin of power). So, after all, the power of the SP-1 is almost exhausted ...
      new gas pipeline may increase disagreements between EU states and weaken their resolve regarding sanctions against Moscow imposed for the annexation of Crimea. By strengthening ties between the EU energy markets and Russia, Nord Stream 2 will squeeze other suppliers and draw European countries into difficult economic relations with the Russian Federation. This creates a risk for maintaining sanctions against Russia
      - and this is the essence all fears of the EU countries !!!
    6. 0
      23 June 2017 07: 26
      This expert writes nothing about the independence of Europe from the USA. He also does not write about why the United States chooses to solve gas competition issues through political means.

      Money is everything. Tense up your tired memory and remember how Europe got excited when the negotiations on the Power of Siberia gas pipeline were held in China. And the EU will remain without gas and other lotions. But nobody remembered about American LNG.
    7. 0
      23 June 2017 07: 35
      All right. That's about what we are planning. And it is right. Do not bomb the same ....
    8. 0
      23 June 2017 09: 37
      Our liberals screamed for a very long time about the oil and gas needle on which we were sitting. And it happened! We heard their calls and put all of Europe on it. The liberals are again not happy, what do they want this time? laughing
      1. +1
        23 June 2017 09: 43
        Connect the logic. The fact that they put Europe on a gas needle, although this has not arguably abolished the fact that we ourselves are sitting on it. Europe can then change the supplier. But it’s more difficult for us
        1. 0
          23 June 2017 11: 13
          Quote: Ken71
          not abolished the fact that we ourselves are sitting on it.

          You are mistaken! Only 30% of the budget is oil and gas money for the future: it would be the greatest stupidity on our part not to take advantage of what God has allocated the Russian land and what the United States is chasing around the world, carrying democracy on the wings of its bombers to various rich in natural resources countries that are unable, unlike us, to protect them from the aggressor.
          Yes, and let's say Boat 100% sits on a pipe - so what? They have something that is not a citizen - that is a sheikh.
          1. BAI
            +2
            23 June 2017 11: 22
            Yes, oil and gas are god with them. We have Baikal - 19% of the world's fresh water. And when you consider that not all fresh water is good for drinking (and Baikal is good), this is where the excitement will soon rise. It was not for nothing that Albright declared that Russia unjustly owns Siberia, to take it away and divide it (in the interests of the USA, of course).
            1. 0
              23 June 2017 11: 29
              Quote: BAI
              Yes, oil and gas are god with them. We have Baikal - 19% of the world's fresh water

              This time the liberals were worried about the fresh water of Lake Baikal laughing
              Can you imagine how much fresh water is in the Arctic and Antarctic? And in Africa?
          2. +1
            23 June 2017 11: 38
            Quote: Boris55
            Only 30% of the budget is oil and gas money

            As oil prices went up a bit, the share of oil and gas revenues in the country's budget began to grow. According to the results of two months of 2017, oil revenue amounted to more than 44% of total revenues to the treasury of Russia.
            Quote: Boris55
            it would be the greatest stupidity on our part not to take advantage of what God endowed the Russian land

            Wow! If we have forests, then they need to be cut down and sold, and Baikal should also be sold to tea houses. It’s stupid not to sell it, but God endowed wassat
            And you didn’t try to sell a kidney, there is a demand for tries, and you can live without it wink
            1. 0
              23 June 2017 11: 55
              Quote: Stroporez
              According to the results of two months of 2017, oil revenues amounted to more than 44%

              Arabs for some reason do not bother about this.
              Quote: Stroporez
              If we have forests, then they need to be cut down and sold.

              Forests - renewable resources and what is the problem?
              You are interested in the fact of trading and are not at all interested in how the income from this trade is distributed. Why?
              1. +2
                23 June 2017 12: 50
                Quote: Boris55
                Arabs for some reason do not bother about this.

                Arabs are third world countries, and we are also “Arabs”?
                Quote: Boris55
                Forests - renewable resources and what is the problem?

                The tree is a second to fill up, but it may not be enough to grow life ...
                Quote: Boris55
                You are interested in the fact of trading and are not at all interested in how the income from this trade is distributed. Why?

                This is exactly the fact that interests me Yes
                1. 0
                  23 June 2017 15: 02
                  Quote: Stroporez
                  This is exactly the fact that interests me

                  Well, write about it, and not that our wealth should be preserved for the overseas owner.
                  1. +1
                    23 June 2017 15: 15
                    Quote: Boris55
                    Well, write about it

                    SchA what
                    You mean for pumping out natural resources? OK!
                    The masters of oil are produced more than the USSR, and they share money between shareholders, well, at the future, and at the beginning they will make the first ones among themselves, then they throw the bone to the chain dogs, but what remains for the pensioners, they didn’t throw the Schaub at the election, for patching the main streets remote cities and of course in the glorious city of Apatity 3 kopecks for healing.
                    Quote: Boris55
                    that our wealth must be preserved for the overseas owner.

                    Our riches are given to the overseas owner for free, that is, for green papers, which they then inject into their overseas economy.
                    argue the bush?
                    Quote: Boris55
                    But why crazy? Liberals are not interested in this. It’s important for them to blame Putin and tear the country apart.

                    So he is the most capital liberal.
                    Whose will you be? tongue

                    Threat. Incidentally, I forgot to tell you the news, the Russian Federation will soon be renamed the USSR- (joint ownership of the Sechins-Rotenbergoff)
              2. +1
                23 June 2017 13: 57
                Quote: Boris55
                Forests - renewable resources and what is the problem?

                Correctly! In place of cut down valuable conifers, birch and aspen begin to grow instantly. That is why the Chinese take care of their forests and buy our wood.
                Quote: Stroporez
                The tree is a second to fill up, but it may not be enough to grow life ...

                Especially valuable breeds. Not only pine and larch, but also oak, elm, beech, (beech should not be confused with SAM).
                1. 0
                  23 June 2017 15: 01
                  Quote: Amurets
                  In place of cut down valuable conifers, birch and aspen begin to grow instantly.

                  Well, a constructive conversation has begun. And then, no way, no way. It is possible, but wisely. And here is why crazy - this issue needs to be discussed.
            2. 0
              25 June 2017 12: 52
              Envy silently.))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
          3. +1
            23 June 2017 13: 57
            Thirty percent is not enough .... give up 30 percent of your budget. I'll look at you. And in Qatar, put me
            1. 0
              23 June 2017 14: 58
              Quote: Ken71
              ... thirty percent is not enough ....

              Reread my post (Today, 11:13) again and preferably to the end.
              1. +1
                23 June 2017 15: 35
                If I answered about Qatar, I read it to the end. In the middle, you have a little misunderstanding of the essence of the modern economy. For the sake of resources, they will not capture us. It’s more profitable to buy resources, especially since we do not set prices.
    9. 0
      23 June 2017 09: 53
      The author holds readers for me it seems))
    10. The comment was deleted.
    11. BAI
      0
      23 June 2017 11: 17
      Is monopoly financial leverage for US pressure on all countries a norm?
    12. 0
      23 June 2017 12: 09
      Russian intervention in the American elections, the annexation of the Crimea, the support of the dictator Assad, and finally, gas pipes in Europe - all this, according to some Western experts, is a direct challenge to American influence and European stability.

      Russia alone threatens state hygemony.
    13. +1
      23 June 2017 13: 45
      wassat
      because the United States, according to the expert, "maintains stability in Europe after the Second World War."

      I liked this ..................... wassat
      1. 0
        24 June 2017 05: 48
        If only on a short leash support.
    14. 0
      24 June 2017 05: 58
      Russia is another energy supplier. And at the moment, far from the only one. So as before, knocking on the platform with a slipper will not work, and it will not work to threaten to turn off the gas.
    15. 0
      25 June 2017 12: 48
      And why does Russia need such hemorrhoids as the construction of SP-2? There are Russian hackers. They even choose preziks in AI.)))

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