Russia as a gas "threat" to the West
Eduardo Saravalle, Researcher at the Energy, Economy, and Security Program at the Center for New American Security (Washington) "Politico" told about how dangerous Russians can be with their gas and pipes.
Washington has been arguing for several months about Russia's interference in the presidential election. Similar problems are voiced by the European allies of the United States: France and Germany. Moscow’s actions are a direct threat to the authority of Western presidential elections.
However, "the Russian campaign to undermine the United States goes beyond the ballot boxes," the expert said. It also extends beyond the annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea and the support of the Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, the author is sure. One of the current directions of Russian foreign policy, which is not given enough attention, is Moscow’s energy strategy.
Being the second largest producer of natural gas in the world, the analyst recalls, Russia "has leverage over its European customers." Threats to cut off gas supplies are used to incite hostility among European countries. The new pipeline, which Moscow intends to build, can significantly increase this lever of influence: in the future, Russia will increase its share in the German gas market to more than fifty percent. Such a policy in general and this new pipeline in particular “represent a direct challenge to the interests of the United States after World War II regarding stability in Europe,” the author writes.
At the end of April, 2017, the Russian gas giant Gazprom, signed a financial deal for the Nord Stream - 2 pipeline, through which gas from the Ust-Luga district in Russia (located west of St. Petersburg) will go straight through the Baltic Sea to Germany, from where it will be distributed to other European countries. Gas infrastructure is expensive and difficult to build. Once built, pipelines can change gas flows for decades and, at the same time, relations between countries receiving or not receiving gas. If Nord Stream 2 approves environmental impact assessment, this project will strengthen the EU’s dependence on Russian gas and strengthen Moscow’s leverage on key US allies.
Nord Stream - 2 will expand Russia's strong position in European gas markets, already linked to the Nord Stream - 1 pipeline. In 2016, Russia supplied 34% of natural gas to the EU. Nord Stream - 2 will complement the export capacity of Nord Stream - 1. In general, the new pipeline can provide 26 to millions of households with energy in Europe every year!
According to some analysts, Nord Stream 2 will increase the share of Russia in the German gas market by more than 50 percent (in 2015, the figure was 43 percent). Poland already today receives more than two thirds of the consumed natural gas from Gazprom. In addition, supporters of Nord Stream 2 note that over the next twenty years, the European proposal for domestic gas will decrease by 50%. Hence, there are fears: the Russian pipeline compensates a significant part of this potential deficit, further strengthening the European dependence and preventing at the same time gas supplies from other places.
The success of Nord Stream 2 is a reminder to the West that security depends not only on military power, but also on a healthy media environment. The pipeline is a clear attempt by Russia to “divide and conquer Europe,” the author is convinced. The people of the Kremlin are “very smart” and “insidious”: yes, Gazprom has developed an attractive business project, but at the same time the Russians will weaken Europe through the Nord Stream 2 in “three key ways”.
First, the new “stream” will allow Russia to get more leverage over Germany and other European countries. With such a significant share of the natural gas market, Germany will simply be hostage to gas supplies from Russia, especially if Russia decides to raise the price or at the very least reduce supply. This is a “big lever” for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the US and Germany should not think that Russia will never dare to use it.
Secondly, continues Eduardo Saravalle, Nord Stream 2 will allow Russia to bypass Ukraine with gas supplies to the European Union. In other words, if Moscow wishes to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine, it will be able to do this without violating its obligations to Germany and other strong Western European states.
Third, (“perhaps this is the most important thing”), the new gas pipeline may intensify disagreements between the EU states and weaken their resolve regarding sanctions against Moscow imposed for the annexation of the Crimea. By strengthening the links between the EU and Russia’s energy markets, Nord Stream 2 will squeeze other suppliers and draw European countries into complex economic relations with the Russian Federation. This creates a risk to maintain sanctions against Russia: European countries with strong economic ties with Russia will reject these sanctions. Ultimately, the new pipeline will exacerbate the existing split between Europeans, concerned about the growing strength of Russia and opposing its market dominance, and those Europeans who welcome cheap Russian energy and cooperation with Russia in general.
Moscow has already demonstrated in the past its willingness to use its influence as the dominant supplier of natural gas. For example, the Kremlin stopped supplying natural gas to Ukraine in the 2006 year, during the winter 2008-09. and during the conflict in 2015. Historically, the author points out further that Russia also “strategically” sold gas to its customers at various rates and, following its geopolitical ambitions, threatened to cut off energy supplies.
Given the “potential consequences” of Nord Stream 2, the analyst points out that it’s not surprising that many European countries consider energy to be “an important issue of national security.” The small countries of Eastern Europe tend to be less important for the EU’s energy policy than their larger neighbors, but they are especially vulnerable.
It cannot be said that the EU and US politicians do not understand these problems and are not trying to prevent the construction of the Nord Stream - 2. EU officials tried to use regulatory tools and prevent the approval of the next “stream”, and US diplomats urged Denmark to refuse to approve the project. Opponents of the pipeline on both sides of the Atlantic are hoping that "the draconian application of the EU energy rules or the possible decision of the Danish national security authorities may at the last moment disrupt the construction of the pipeline." But today, the expert notes with sadness, we can say the opposite: the gas pipeline “will almost certainly be built.”
The US should also find other ways to reduce Russia's growing influence. For example, Washington needs to "support the construction of LNG export terminals, help create a global market for liquefied natural gas, which will reduce the role of bilateral long-term contracts that allow countries like Russia to block supplies on favorable conditions."
And there are already "some encouraging signs from the Trump administration." In April, Energy Minister Rick Perry announced 2017 approval of the Golden Pass LNG export terminal, and Gary Cohn, director of the National Economic Council, called for an increase in LNG exports.
Countries wary of Russia's energy expansion are aware of the need for potential protection provided by the supply of natural gas from the United States, I'm sure, Saravalle. Lithuania even gave its LNG terminal the name Independence.
The expert’s message is obvious: the “security” expert is convinced that the Russians, along with gas, transport the ideas of “political intervention” to Europe and are preparing to manipulate the EU countries with a view to further splitting them and refusing Brussels from sanctions. Such a strategy, of course, "creates a threat to the interests of the United States," because it is the United States, according to the expert, "maintain stability in Europe after World War II."
This expert writes nothing about the independence of Europe from the USA. He also does not write about why the United States chooses to solve gas competition issues through political means.
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