The crisis is not in cash
The crisis around the Emirate of Qatar began with the Kingdom of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen breaking off diplomatic relations with him, this buried President Trump's initiative to create a "Middle Eastern NATO."
This idea was doomed to failure because of the traditionally strained relations between Qatar and its GCC partners. Characterized by a restrained reaction to the situation of the US State Department. Consider what is happening in the region, based on materials prepared by the IBI expert Y. Shcheglovin.
Old story
The diplomatic and trade pressure of Doha from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is not the first case of this level. Two years ago, on the initiative of Riyadh, the ambassadors of KSA, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain in Qatar were recalled. Then the parents of the emir of Tamim intervened in the situation, they through the UAE were able to normalize the situation and establish relationships, including the participation of the troops of the principality in the Arabian coalition in Yemen. The main initiator of pressure on Doha was Riyadh because of the “subversive activities” of Qatar in Yemen. Today the situation is different. The official reason for the break in relations, whether the pro-Iranian statements by the Emir of Qatar, made up by journalists, is irrelevant to the case, as well as the accusations of Manama of interfering in the internal affairs of Bahrain.
Since the beginning of 2000-ies, Doha has been a contender for the role of the leader of the Muslim Ummah, being active in the affairs of the Middle East and Africa and everywhere entering into conflict with Riyadh. The KSA has two levers of spreading influence: funding of political and theological elites, for which the network of charitable foundations and organizations was used, and the force - Al-Qaida. Doha created the influential television channel Al-Jazeera, and as a tool of ideological influence, the Muslim Brotherhood global movement began to apply, during the Arab Spring, which sharply increased its influence in the Arab world. It introduced Ankara into the circle of Doha’s close allies, whose military potential is much higher than KSA and the UAE, not to mention Turkey’s political and economic influence. Informal support for military operations in Qatar at the same time was banned in the Russian Federation "Islamic State" (IG). All the “branches” of the Islamic State in the countries of the Muslim world are local nationalist movements that received support from Doha. So Qatar clearly outplayed KSA, although the reason for the current demarche is different.
Relations between the UAE and KSA in Yemen have escalated today. Abu Dhabi is opposed to reliance on the local “Brothers” from the Islah party, who organize KSA, and demands that the creature of Riyadh, President A.M. Hadi, be suspected of contact with Islamists be removed from power. It came to the stimulation of the United Arab Emirates of the option of “dividing South Yemen” and curtailing military participation in the Arab coalition, which in this case ceases to exist. Not everything is simple in the KSA relations with the UAE-Egypt axis in the Horn of Africa, where the parties occupy opposing positions on the construction of the Rebirth dam in Ethiopia on the Blue Nile. In the same region, intending to open military bases in Uganda and Somalia, the Qatar-Turkey axis operates, competing with both KSA and the United Arab Emirates-Egypt. Doha and Ankara stimulate a guerrilla war in Sinai and terrorism in Egyptian cities while simultaneously confronting the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates in Libya.
Claims to Qatar in Cairo and Abu Dhabi are tougher than KSA. At the same time, Saudi Arabia supported the UAE’s request to President Trump during his last visit to KSA not only to reduce the level of relations between the United States and Qatar due to his support of the Muslim Brotherhood (once the US president declared that he considered them terrorists), but also to withdraw his bases from Qatar. The White House did not go to it, but in Abu Dhabi they considered the hands untied. The UAE and Egypt initiated the current collective anti-Cathar demarche, and KSA with Bahrain supported it for the sake of preserving the union of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in Yemen, since the secession of South Yemen and the collapse of the Arab coalition meant a fiasco of KSA’s defense minister and heir to crown prince M. Ben Salman .
Compromise through aggravation
In the development of the crisis around Qatar, the interim government of Libya, the Republic of Maldives, Mauritius and the Comoros declared the severance of diplomatic relations with it. The emirate’s charges of supporting terrorism led not only to the closure of embassies and the departure of diplomatic personnel, but also to the blockade of the emirate. We stopped the air traffic and closed the airspace for UAE emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The KSA banned the entry of any ships under the Qatar flag into its ports, closed the land border with the emirate, suspended the work of the sea and land border terminals. Egypt interrupted postal and transport messages. Saudis have banned banking operations in Qatari currency. In this regard, political scientists and traders talked about possible problems with the export of LNG from Qatar, which should inflate the price of oil and gas.
In fact, what is considered an escalation is, in fact, preparation for consultations to find a compromise. KSA, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (the remaining participants in the blockade of Qatar can be ignored) are blackmailing and scaring the authorities of the emirate. After a while, the dialogue will begin. Kuwait and Oman made the usual “efforts to bring positions closer” in such a situation. Doha is holding on confidently, as nothing threatens its welfare, its financial situation is firm, nothing threatens the source of economic welfare - LNG exports, and financial holdings and assets in the United States and Europe are so weighty that the question of freezing them is not discussed. To prevent gas exports, it is necessary to introduce sanctions from the UN Security Council. However, permanent members of the Security Council and political heavyweights - the United States, the Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China and the European Union - distanced themselves from both sides of the conflict. Doha would be frightened only by "gas" sanctions and the withdrawal of US military bases. However, this will not be what Trump actually announced during his visit to Riyadh.
Crisis initiators want Doha concessions on all regional policy issues. It should stop promoting terrorism in Sinai and in the cities of Egypt, stop the support of the Muslim Brotherhood and curtail activity in Libya and Syria. It is clear that Qatar will not do anything of this, although it will promise everything that is demanded of it. After waiting, Doha will answer - he can begin with the deportation of 300 thousands of Egyptians working in the emirate, finance African mercenaries in Libya, ask Turkey to stop the supply of pro-Saud groups in Syrian Idlib. Doha’s opponents do not have a “hot” solution to the situation due to weak military potential and unwillingness to fight. At the same time, Riyadh understands the danger to QAA of Qatar’s accusations of sponsoring international terrorism. The Saudi kingdom with its links to al-Qaeda and other Islamist radicals will definitely suffer.
Thin red lines
The fact that Qatar is not ready to change the foreign policy course for the settlement of the conflict, 8 June was declared by Foreign Minister of the Emirate M. Bin Abdel Rahman Al Tani: "We are not ready to surrender and will never give up the independence of our foreign policy." The bargaining began, and it is time for Qatar to lay out the trump cards. The statement of the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is a “red line”, denoting the position of the country in future consultations, for which Doha will not pass. The Qataris will not cease to support the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, to reduce their level of influence in Libya. We don’t talk about support for the militants in Sinai, since nobody officially sponsors them, and participation in Doha (and Ankara) has to be proved. Political scientists are talking about a possible Gulf war and the overthrow of the Emir of Tamim. It is rumored that the conflict is based on territorial disputes between KSA and Qatar. In fact, it is almost impossible. A change of emir means surrender. The intra-carparian opposition, the emir’s uncle and former prime minister H. bin Jassim bin Jaber Al-Thani, cannot do anything here. The demands of the UAE, KSA and Egypt unite the Qatari elite.
What is being done in foreign policy is the position of the Qatari elite and the population, and not the adventures of a young emir. Its change to fundamental changes will not lead. H. Bin Jassim could have tried to take revenge three years ago, when the emir had not yet strengthened and had not taken control of the main financial flows. He did not do it when he was in force and tried to create a personal army on the basis of a Western private security company, and, moreover, he could not now, when he was removed from the levers of influence in the country. The prospect of a politically and financially powerful H. bin Jasem taking power prompted the parents and the emir to imitate a deviation from foreign policy towards increasing the influence of Doha in the Islamic world. Then it was interpreted by political scientists as a change of course, but in fact it was only a political maneuver.
Doha goes on the offensive. 7 June, the Turkish parliament approved a law allowing the deployment of Turkish troops at a base in Qatar. 240 deputies of the ruling Justice and Development Party and the opposition Nationalist Movement voted in his support. Turkish President R. Tayyip Erdogan said that the isolation of Qatar, the imposition of sanctions will not help resolve the crisis in relations with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. 8 June, the head of the Emirate’s Foreign Ministry said that the Turkish military contingent heading for Qatar would contribute to security in the Middle East region. Then he confirmed Iran’s readiness to supply food to the emirate. "Iran is ready to provide food supplies to Qatar and open three seaports for it," the minister said. He assured that the authorities are not worried about the food situation in the country.
Earlier, Western media reported on the negotiations of Doha, Ankara and Tehran to provide Qatar with food and water. This is an allusion to the fact that there are prerequisites for creating an Iranian-Qatari alliance in case opponents of Qatari continue to behave as they lead, which is extremely dangerous for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Even the hypothetical possibility of gaining Iran in close proximity to the borders has always been for the Arabian monarchies a decisive argument in favor of choosing a compromise. Moreover, the contacts of the Qatari Foreign Minister and Russia mean an appeal to a serious center of power, demonstrated by the United States. Fortunately, President Trump, having involved KSA and the United Arab Emirates in a clash with Qatar, washed his hands, taking the position of arbitrator.
Rusty gears
"US Secretary of Defense J. Mattis held a meeting with Qatari State Secretary of Defense H. bin Mohammed al-Attiyah to discuss the final steps to buy Qatar's American F-15 fighter jets," said Pentagon spokesman R.Caines, quoted by CN-CN. -en According to him, the 12 deal of billions of dollars will enhance cooperation and security cooperation between the United States and Qatar. As the Pentagon spokesman pointed out, Mattis and al-Attiyah discussed mutual security interests, including the course of operations against ISIS and the importance of de-escalating tensions between Qatar and several Arab countries, so that all partners in the Gulf region could focus on achieving common goals.
The exact number of F-15, which the US is ready to deliver to Doha, is not indicated in the message of the Pentagon. Agency "Bloomberg" previously reported that we are talking about 36 aircraft. At the same time 18 November 2016, it became aware of the sale to the United States of Qatar 72 F-15QA fighters and related equipment and weapons for 21,1 billion dollars. It is possible that we are seeing an explanation of the real nature of the conflict in the GCC, provoked by President Trump during his May visit to Riyadh. Restoring the previous level of trust between America and the Arabian monarchies is a big problem. To believe the States, which declares Qatar a state that sponsors terrorism, which means putting it on the black list of the US Department of Justice and then selling it to weapon, complicated. In Riyadh, they do a good face-up with a bad game due to Trump's anti-Iranian rhetoric, but it’s obvious that KSA doesn’t trust its partner to the end because of his pragmatism, which is good for a businessman, but not for the president.
Having staked on reanimation of the alliance with KSA and its allies in confrontation with Qatar, among which the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, can be considered purely situational, Washington did not resolve the issue of creating a "Middle Eastern NATO". The current US administration is able to calculate investment risks and is aware of the utopian nature of this idea. In addition to the contradictions between potential partners in such an alliance, none of them (except for Egypt and Jordan) have serious combat potential. This is not Israel, not shah's Iran with the third largest army in the world and not Turkey during the reign of the military. It is not necessary to search for effective regional military partners in this situation. Washington proposed a deal: toughening the anti-Iranian position and guaranteeing security from outside interference, in return for which the Arabian monarchies begin to purchase American weapons in enormous amounts without alternative from European suppliers. Tribute in the form of defense orders in exchange for security. A clear scheme, except for the fact that the attack on the monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula will go not to the army, but a few groups of partisans from Yemen and Iraq, against which the American troops are powerless.
Qatar, until recently chosen between French and American military aircraft, against the background of the crisis, decided on a frank bribe to the Americans. The emirate does not need so many cars. In Yemen, there were only six in the Arab coalition and the same in Libya in the overthrow of Gaddafi. When it became clear that the French rivals were eliminated, the State Department began consultations on appeasing the conflicting Arabian monarchies. In addition to financial benefits, the United States demonstrates the potential of a mediator: they stimulated the crisis and put it out themselves, although the fundamental disagreements between Qatar, KSA, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have not gone away. At the same time, Trump not only forced Qatar to move away from sponsoring the Democratic Party and limited the flow of money from the Arabian monarchies to the Democratic cashier, but also muffled the opposition in the Republican Party in the person of Senator McCain and his circle, sponsored by Riyadh. On the transition to the side of Trump most of the US military-industrial complex to talk too.
As for the discussion of the “joint struggle” between the US and Qatar against terrorism, the pressure on Doha, as one of the main sponsors of the IG, is of practical importance. Americans need Qatari help even not to force IG supporters to leave Mosul and Raqqa (the storming of these IG strongholds has been delayed), but to prevent Sunni troops from disturbing the American contingent with terrorist attacks after these cities formally come under the control of Baghdad or US allies in Syria. Although the issue of withdrawal of supporters of IS from Raqqa is now being resolved. With Iraq it is more difficult, there guarantees of tranquility will not be able to give even in Doha, until Baghdad does not go for the real incorporation of Sunnis into power. And in Syria, this task is on the shoulder of Doha (and Ankara), and it will now begin to be solved.
The main thing for the United States, through the mediation of Qatar, is to transfer IG supporters under Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor (the Americans do not object if the IG takes it, then giving way to the loyal US opposition) to create conditions for the control of this province and preparation security zones across the border agreed with Amman. Without calm in the north and guarantees from IG attacks in the south (especially on the border between Iraq, Jordan and Syria), Americans will not be able to fully implement the plan to create two strongholds in Syria, from where the opposition will expand inland. Washington is trying to implement in the SAR the old idea of creating security zones with actual no-fly regime. They are not created to divide Syria according to a confessional basis. The main task of any administration in Washington will be the change of the regime of Bashar Assad. Taking into account the connection of Damascus and Moscow, this becomes an unalternative priority. The removal of Assad from the power of the United States is a tool for squeezing Russia and Iran out of Syria.
It’s not so important for Assad to replace Washington, because the Americans, through the taming of Riyadh and Doha - the main sponsors of Islamist terrorism - form a new instrument of influence on the jihadist segment of the Muslim world. That is, they are trying to revive the Afghan mechanism of influencing the situation of the times of presence in this country of the USSR, through the “Islamic factor”. Through him, they hope and control the Syrian opposition after the regime change, including through Doha. The latter in the same Afghanistan is now under pressure from the United States will begin to dictate the line of behavior of the Afghan supporters of the IS, who are under its control.
These are fairly simple and transparent schemes based on the new US policy in the Middle East and North Africa. It is impossible to conduct it without the involvement of the CSA and Qatar in the American orbit. Hence the roots of the current scandal within the GCC, the anti-Iranian rhetoric and, as a result, the incorporation of Arabian monarchies into American politics. At the same time, Riyadh and Doha have considerable experience in communicating with US presidents and are familiar with the concepts of American foreign policy, which do not leave them a different role. But this never prevented them from solving their own problems, ignoring the wishes of Washington, and it is unlikely to interfere in the future, whatever they might see. The White House is clearly not fully aware of this ...
This idea was doomed to failure because of the traditionally strained relations between Qatar and its GCC partners. Characterized by a restrained reaction to the situation of the US State Department. Consider what is happening in the region, based on materials prepared by the IBI expert Y. Shcheglovin.
Old story
The diplomatic and trade pressure of Doha from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is not the first case of this level. Two years ago, on the initiative of Riyadh, the ambassadors of KSA, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain in Qatar were recalled. Then the parents of the emir of Tamim intervened in the situation, they through the UAE were able to normalize the situation and establish relationships, including the participation of the troops of the principality in the Arabian coalition in Yemen. The main initiator of pressure on Doha was Riyadh because of the “subversive activities” of Qatar in Yemen. Today the situation is different. The official reason for the break in relations, whether the pro-Iranian statements by the Emir of Qatar, made up by journalists, is irrelevant to the case, as well as the accusations of Manama of interfering in the internal affairs of Bahrain.
Since the beginning of 2000-ies, Doha has been a contender for the role of the leader of the Muslim Ummah, being active in the affairs of the Middle East and Africa and everywhere entering into conflict with Riyadh. The KSA has two levers of spreading influence: funding of political and theological elites, for which the network of charitable foundations and organizations was used, and the force - Al-Qaida. Doha created the influential television channel Al-Jazeera, and as a tool of ideological influence, the Muslim Brotherhood global movement began to apply, during the Arab Spring, which sharply increased its influence in the Arab world. It introduced Ankara into the circle of Doha’s close allies, whose military potential is much higher than KSA and the UAE, not to mention Turkey’s political and economic influence. Informal support for military operations in Qatar at the same time was banned in the Russian Federation "Islamic State" (IG). All the “branches” of the Islamic State in the countries of the Muslim world are local nationalist movements that received support from Doha. So Qatar clearly outplayed KSA, although the reason for the current demarche is different.
Relations between the UAE and KSA in Yemen have escalated today. Abu Dhabi is opposed to reliance on the local “Brothers” from the Islah party, who organize KSA, and demands that the creature of Riyadh, President A.M. Hadi, be suspected of contact with Islamists be removed from power. It came to the stimulation of the United Arab Emirates of the option of “dividing South Yemen” and curtailing military participation in the Arab coalition, which in this case ceases to exist. Not everything is simple in the KSA relations with the UAE-Egypt axis in the Horn of Africa, where the parties occupy opposing positions on the construction of the Rebirth dam in Ethiopia on the Blue Nile. In the same region, intending to open military bases in Uganda and Somalia, the Qatar-Turkey axis operates, competing with both KSA and the United Arab Emirates-Egypt. Doha and Ankara stimulate a guerrilla war in Sinai and terrorism in Egyptian cities while simultaneously confronting the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates in Libya.
Claims to Qatar in Cairo and Abu Dhabi are tougher than KSA. At the same time, Saudi Arabia supported the UAE’s request to President Trump during his last visit to KSA not only to reduce the level of relations between the United States and Qatar due to his support of the Muslim Brotherhood (once the US president declared that he considered them terrorists), but also to withdraw his bases from Qatar. The White House did not go to it, but in Abu Dhabi they considered the hands untied. The UAE and Egypt initiated the current collective anti-Cathar demarche, and KSA with Bahrain supported it for the sake of preserving the union of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in Yemen, since the secession of South Yemen and the collapse of the Arab coalition meant a fiasco of KSA’s defense minister and heir to crown prince M. Ben Salman .
Compromise through aggravation
In the development of the crisis around Qatar, the interim government of Libya, the Republic of Maldives, Mauritius and the Comoros declared the severance of diplomatic relations with it. The emirate’s charges of supporting terrorism led not only to the closure of embassies and the departure of diplomatic personnel, but also to the blockade of the emirate. We stopped the air traffic and closed the airspace for UAE emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The KSA banned the entry of any ships under the Qatar flag into its ports, closed the land border with the emirate, suspended the work of the sea and land border terminals. Egypt interrupted postal and transport messages. Saudis have banned banking operations in Qatari currency. In this regard, political scientists and traders talked about possible problems with the export of LNG from Qatar, which should inflate the price of oil and gas.In fact, what is considered an escalation is, in fact, preparation for consultations to find a compromise. KSA, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (the remaining participants in the blockade of Qatar can be ignored) are blackmailing and scaring the authorities of the emirate. After a while, the dialogue will begin. Kuwait and Oman made the usual “efforts to bring positions closer” in such a situation. Doha is holding on confidently, as nothing threatens its welfare, its financial situation is firm, nothing threatens the source of economic welfare - LNG exports, and financial holdings and assets in the United States and Europe are so weighty that the question of freezing them is not discussed. To prevent gas exports, it is necessary to introduce sanctions from the UN Security Council. However, permanent members of the Security Council and political heavyweights - the United States, the Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China and the European Union - distanced themselves from both sides of the conflict. Doha would be frightened only by "gas" sanctions and the withdrawal of US military bases. However, this will not be what Trump actually announced during his visit to Riyadh.
Crisis initiators want Doha concessions on all regional policy issues. It should stop promoting terrorism in Sinai and in the cities of Egypt, stop the support of the Muslim Brotherhood and curtail activity in Libya and Syria. It is clear that Qatar will not do anything of this, although it will promise everything that is demanded of it. After waiting, Doha will answer - he can begin with the deportation of 300 thousands of Egyptians working in the emirate, finance African mercenaries in Libya, ask Turkey to stop the supply of pro-Saud groups in Syrian Idlib. Doha’s opponents do not have a “hot” solution to the situation due to weak military potential and unwillingness to fight. At the same time, Riyadh understands the danger to QAA of Qatar’s accusations of sponsoring international terrorism. The Saudi kingdom with its links to al-Qaeda and other Islamist radicals will definitely suffer.
Thin red lines
The fact that Qatar is not ready to change the foreign policy course for the settlement of the conflict, 8 June was declared by Foreign Minister of the Emirate M. Bin Abdel Rahman Al Tani: "We are not ready to surrender and will never give up the independence of our foreign policy." The bargaining began, and it is time for Qatar to lay out the trump cards. The statement of the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is a “red line”, denoting the position of the country in future consultations, for which Doha will not pass. The Qataris will not cease to support the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, to reduce their level of influence in Libya. We don’t talk about support for the militants in Sinai, since nobody officially sponsors them, and participation in Doha (and Ankara) has to be proved. Political scientists are talking about a possible Gulf war and the overthrow of the Emir of Tamim. It is rumored that the conflict is based on territorial disputes between KSA and Qatar. In fact, it is almost impossible. A change of emir means surrender. The intra-carparian opposition, the emir’s uncle and former prime minister H. bin Jassim bin Jaber Al-Thani, cannot do anything here. The demands of the UAE, KSA and Egypt unite the Qatari elite.What is being done in foreign policy is the position of the Qatari elite and the population, and not the adventures of a young emir. Its change to fundamental changes will not lead. H. Bin Jassim could have tried to take revenge three years ago, when the emir had not yet strengthened and had not taken control of the main financial flows. He did not do it when he was in force and tried to create a personal army on the basis of a Western private security company, and, moreover, he could not now, when he was removed from the levers of influence in the country. The prospect of a politically and financially powerful H. bin Jasem taking power prompted the parents and the emir to imitate a deviation from foreign policy towards increasing the influence of Doha in the Islamic world. Then it was interpreted by political scientists as a change of course, but in fact it was only a political maneuver.
Doha goes on the offensive. 7 June, the Turkish parliament approved a law allowing the deployment of Turkish troops at a base in Qatar. 240 deputies of the ruling Justice and Development Party and the opposition Nationalist Movement voted in his support. Turkish President R. Tayyip Erdogan said that the isolation of Qatar, the imposition of sanctions will not help resolve the crisis in relations with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. 8 June, the head of the Emirate’s Foreign Ministry said that the Turkish military contingent heading for Qatar would contribute to security in the Middle East region. Then he confirmed Iran’s readiness to supply food to the emirate. "Iran is ready to provide food supplies to Qatar and open three seaports for it," the minister said. He assured that the authorities are not worried about the food situation in the country.
Earlier, Western media reported on the negotiations of Doha, Ankara and Tehran to provide Qatar with food and water. This is an allusion to the fact that there are prerequisites for creating an Iranian-Qatari alliance in case opponents of Qatari continue to behave as they lead, which is extremely dangerous for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Even the hypothetical possibility of gaining Iran in close proximity to the borders has always been for the Arabian monarchies a decisive argument in favor of choosing a compromise. Moreover, the contacts of the Qatari Foreign Minister and Russia mean an appeal to a serious center of power, demonstrated by the United States. Fortunately, President Trump, having involved KSA and the United Arab Emirates in a clash with Qatar, washed his hands, taking the position of arbitrator.
Rusty gears
"US Secretary of Defense J. Mattis held a meeting with Qatari State Secretary of Defense H. bin Mohammed al-Attiyah to discuss the final steps to buy Qatar's American F-15 fighter jets," said Pentagon spokesman R.Caines, quoted by CN-CN. -en According to him, the 12 deal of billions of dollars will enhance cooperation and security cooperation between the United States and Qatar. As the Pentagon spokesman pointed out, Mattis and al-Attiyah discussed mutual security interests, including the course of operations against ISIS and the importance of de-escalating tensions between Qatar and several Arab countries, so that all partners in the Gulf region could focus on achieving common goals.
The exact number of F-15, which the US is ready to deliver to Doha, is not indicated in the message of the Pentagon. Agency "Bloomberg" previously reported that we are talking about 36 aircraft. At the same time 18 November 2016, it became aware of the sale to the United States of Qatar 72 F-15QA fighters and related equipment and weapons for 21,1 billion dollars. It is possible that we are seeing an explanation of the real nature of the conflict in the GCC, provoked by President Trump during his May visit to Riyadh. Restoring the previous level of trust between America and the Arabian monarchies is a big problem. To believe the States, which declares Qatar a state that sponsors terrorism, which means putting it on the black list of the US Department of Justice and then selling it to weapon, complicated. In Riyadh, they do a good face-up with a bad game due to Trump's anti-Iranian rhetoric, but it’s obvious that KSA doesn’t trust its partner to the end because of his pragmatism, which is good for a businessman, but not for the president.
Having staked on reanimation of the alliance with KSA and its allies in confrontation with Qatar, among which the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, can be considered purely situational, Washington did not resolve the issue of creating a "Middle Eastern NATO". The current US administration is able to calculate investment risks and is aware of the utopian nature of this idea. In addition to the contradictions between potential partners in such an alliance, none of them (except for Egypt and Jordan) have serious combat potential. This is not Israel, not shah's Iran with the third largest army in the world and not Turkey during the reign of the military. It is not necessary to search for effective regional military partners in this situation. Washington proposed a deal: toughening the anti-Iranian position and guaranteeing security from outside interference, in return for which the Arabian monarchies begin to purchase American weapons in enormous amounts without alternative from European suppliers. Tribute in the form of defense orders in exchange for security. A clear scheme, except for the fact that the attack on the monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula will go not to the army, but a few groups of partisans from Yemen and Iraq, against which the American troops are powerless.
Qatar, until recently chosen between French and American military aircraft, against the background of the crisis, decided on a frank bribe to the Americans. The emirate does not need so many cars. In Yemen, there were only six in the Arab coalition and the same in Libya in the overthrow of Gaddafi. When it became clear that the French rivals were eliminated, the State Department began consultations on appeasing the conflicting Arabian monarchies. In addition to financial benefits, the United States demonstrates the potential of a mediator: they stimulated the crisis and put it out themselves, although the fundamental disagreements between Qatar, KSA, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have not gone away. At the same time, Trump not only forced Qatar to move away from sponsoring the Democratic Party and limited the flow of money from the Arabian monarchies to the Democratic cashier, but also muffled the opposition in the Republican Party in the person of Senator McCain and his circle, sponsored by Riyadh. On the transition to the side of Trump most of the US military-industrial complex to talk too.
As for the discussion of the “joint struggle” between the US and Qatar against terrorism, the pressure on Doha, as one of the main sponsors of the IG, is of practical importance. Americans need Qatari help even not to force IG supporters to leave Mosul and Raqqa (the storming of these IG strongholds has been delayed), but to prevent Sunni troops from disturbing the American contingent with terrorist attacks after these cities formally come under the control of Baghdad or US allies in Syria. Although the issue of withdrawal of supporters of IS from Raqqa is now being resolved. With Iraq it is more difficult, there guarantees of tranquility will not be able to give even in Doha, until Baghdad does not go for the real incorporation of Sunnis into power. And in Syria, this task is on the shoulder of Doha (and Ankara), and it will now begin to be solved.
The main thing for the United States, through the mediation of Qatar, is to transfer IG supporters under Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor (the Americans do not object if the IG takes it, then giving way to the loyal US opposition) to create conditions for the control of this province and preparation security zones across the border agreed with Amman. Without calm in the north and guarantees from IG attacks in the south (especially on the border between Iraq, Jordan and Syria), Americans will not be able to fully implement the plan to create two strongholds in Syria, from where the opposition will expand inland. Washington is trying to implement in the SAR the old idea of creating security zones with actual no-fly regime. They are not created to divide Syria according to a confessional basis. The main task of any administration in Washington will be the change of the regime of Bashar Assad. Taking into account the connection of Damascus and Moscow, this becomes an unalternative priority. The removal of Assad from the power of the United States is a tool for squeezing Russia and Iran out of Syria.
It’s not so important for Assad to replace Washington, because the Americans, through the taming of Riyadh and Doha - the main sponsors of Islamist terrorism - form a new instrument of influence on the jihadist segment of the Muslim world. That is, they are trying to revive the Afghan mechanism of influencing the situation of the times of presence in this country of the USSR, through the “Islamic factor”. Through him, they hope and control the Syrian opposition after the regime change, including through Doha. The latter in the same Afghanistan is now under pressure from the United States will begin to dictate the line of behavior of the Afghan supporters of the IS, who are under its control.
These are fairly simple and transparent schemes based on the new US policy in the Middle East and North Africa. It is impossible to conduct it without the involvement of the CSA and Qatar in the American orbit. Hence the roots of the current scandal within the GCC, the anti-Iranian rhetoric and, as a result, the incorporation of Arabian monarchies into American politics. At the same time, Riyadh and Doha have considerable experience in communicating with US presidents and are familiar with the concepts of American foreign policy, which do not leave them a different role. But this never prevented them from solving their own problems, ignoring the wishes of Washington, and it is unlikely to interfere in the future, whatever they might see. The White House is clearly not fully aware of this ...
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