Russia's interests in Kyrgyzstan are under threat
Following his visit to Moscow, Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev stated that Bishkek is not interested in the existence of a Russian 999 airbase located in Kyrgyzstan (in Kant). However, the question of closing the base has not yet been resolved. However, the Kyrgyz president made it clear that he is determined. In the light of the new, no longer political, but economic relations, which Kyrgyzstan intends to build with the Russian Federation, not only the strategic object in Kant, but also other Russian projects in Kyrgyzstan are under threat. According to the newspaper Kommersant, we are talking about controlling stakes in Kyrgyzgaz, Kyrgyzneft, the Dastan plant and the construction of four hydroelectric power plants.Consequently, Moscow’s hopes of securing the loyalty of the Kyrgyz leadership — after the overthrow of ex-President Kurmanbek Bakiyev — did not materialize. According to Kommersant sources, Atambayev’s statement came as a clear surprise to Moscow. On the eve of the elections in the fall of 2011, Atambayev had a reputation as a “pro-Russian” politician and promised to fulfill all his obligations to the Russian Federation.
Last Saturday, Atambaev sharply criticized the Russian authorities, saying: “The base only consoles the pride of the Russian generals, does not pay rent, does not fulfill its obligations. Why do we need this?
According to the Kyrgyz president, at the meeting it became clear that President Medvedev has no idea about the situation with the base in Kant. The rent for the base, according to Atambayev, was not paid for four years. Accumulated debt of nearly fifteen million dollars. But information about this duty, the Kyrgyz president said, the Russian leader first heard from him.
The surprised Dmitry Medvedev immediately ordered the Ministry of Defense to pay off existing debts - within ten days. However, Atambayev stressed, the position of the leadership of Kyrgyzstan on this issue remains unchanged: most likely, the base will soon be closed.
The consolation for Moscow is Atambayev’s statement of intent to simultaneously get rid of the American military base Manas. Yes, consolation - but very weak.
Russia - after a short lull - forced to renew the struggle for influence in Kyrgyzstan. As Kommersant found out from its own sources, as an initial precautionary measure, Moscow has already given Bishkek a refusal of new loans to refinance debts.
A senior source in the Russian government told the newspaper that Russia plans to use Kyrgyzstan's outstanding debts as a tool to force it to fulfill its existing obligations. The source explained: "We already gave Bakiyev a loan for unfulfilled promises, so we don't want to step on the same rake. There is no longer any talk of issuing a loan of thirty million." In addition, the Kremlin press service reported that the solution to the problem of paying off Kyrgyzstan's debt to Russia (which is 493 million dollars) largely depends on the position of the Kyrgyz leadership.
However, President Atambayev, in an interview with the newspaper, emphasized that from now on Kyrgyzstan would not “beg for loans”, however, it would not give up credit assistance unless it was offered. The Kyrgyz leader explained such a dramatic change in government behavior with the high growth of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP over the past year and the firm continuation of the emerging trend.
Recall that Atambayev’s approach towards Russia has changed dramatically following his election.
As a presidential candidate in Kyrgyzstan, Atambayev was very generous with promises. So, he promised to close the American airbase at Manas airport - in accordance with the interests of the Russian Federation. Further, in exchange for writing off the debt in 180 of millions of dollars, he promised to transfer to Russia the building of the trade mission in Bishkek and another 48% of the Dastan plant producing torpedoes VA-111 Shkval. Also presidential candidate Atambayev gave hopes to Moscow to unite all Russian military facilities in Kyrgyzstan into a single base - under a lease agreement for forty-nine years with automatic prolongation. Before the overthrow of Bakiyev, Bishkek promised to open a training center in the south of Kyrgyzstan under the auspices of the CSTO.
In addition, Kyrgyzstan planned to sell interest to KyrgyzGas and Kyrgyzneft to the Russian state-owned 75. Together with Inter RAO, Bishkek planned to build hydropower plants Kambarata-1 and Kambarata-2 and with RusHydro - 4 hydropower plants on the r. Naryn In exchange for the fulfillment of these conditions, Russia expressed its readiness to issue a concessional loan in the amount of thirty million dollars to Kyrgyzstan and an additional loan for 106 million dollars from the EurAsEC anti-crisis fund.
As Kommersant found out, now Bishkek is thinking of revising almost all preliminary agreements. Bishkek refuses to promise to open the CSTO center, demands to pay at the market price for Kyrgyzgas. As for the Dastan plant, Bishkek is ready to pay only 48% to write off debt, the rest will be sold at the market price. If the Russian Federation refuses these unfavorable conditions, the assets can be offered to other countries interested in influencing the region — the United States, China, and Turkey.
Further, in an interview with Kommersant, Atambayev explained his attitude towards the Russian base in Kant. The president declared a significant economic growth in the country and made it clear that henceforth Bishkek will start building relations with the Russian Federation in a new way - from the point of view of a mutually beneficial partnership.
The Kyrgyz president noted that the state of affairs in which the Russian base is not fulfilling its obligations and does not pay rent is not satisfied with the Kyrgyz government. According to Atambayev, for all the years of existence of this base in Kant, the authorities themselves pay for electricity, water, heat, communications, and nothing in return.
Atambayev summed up: “It's not just rent payments. There were still a number of commitments. For example, our pilots should have been trained there. None have been trained! So the question arises whether we need such a base. ” The president denied claims that the base performs defense functions.
As the president noted, if Russia leaves Kant, the authorities will be able to use the airfield as civilian.
Responding to a question about the old agreements of Russia with ousted Kurmanbek Bakiyev about opening a training center for the CSTO, Atambayev said: “With Bakiyev, a lot of things were signed, a lot of things were allocated for him. But Bakiyev himself should be responsible for this. There are written commitments on behalf of Kyrgyzstan. We are ready to fulfill all obligations, but we insist that relations be equal. But you also fulfill obligations. ”
The leader of Kyrgyzstan in an interview also confirmed the intention to close the American base Manas. He said that the Americans did not believe him for a long time when he explained to them that there should not be a military base in Manas. The president, he said, with great difficulty, convinced the Americans that he was not trying to get extra money from the USA for himself or his family. He patiently explained his decision by saying that "there should not be a military base at any civil airport."
He added that many do not understand this and, as a result, “are looking for some dark motives. They say Atambayev wants to close the American base in order to ask Russia for a loan. Yes, I haven’t asked Russia for a single penny - neither credits nor grants! ”After all, Kyrgyzstan was able to increase budget revenues last year. “Kyrgyzstan is now another country. This is not a country that will beg someone for loans. If someone wants to help us, we will not refuse, ”said the President of Kyrgyzstan. He added that if the Chinese provide loans on more favorable terms than Russia, Kyrgyzstan will take them.
However, experts express doubts that the Kyrgyz government will be able to solve its problems without Russian loans. A. Vlasov, General Director of the Center for the Study of the Post-Soviet Space of Moscow State University, noted in an interview with Kommersant that Bishkek urgently needs financial resources today. The analyst says that Turkey has written off the country's debts, but did not give new money. And the PRC gives money on very tough terms. The analyst concludes that the only source of financial income remains the blackmail of Moscow and Washington over aviation bases. According to A. Vlasov, the statements of President Atambayev may well be regarded as an attempt to put pressure on Russia before the elections.
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