Where the pendulum of power will swing

Where the pendulum of power will swingThe closer the election day of March 4, the more clearly I realize: the victory of Vladimir Putin is inevitable and predetermined. He has such arguments in his assets that none of his opponents are able to present. At one time he accepted a country that is, in fact, already beyond the collapse, and in a state of complete political and economic collapse. In 2008, he handed over to his successor another Russia that had reached a certain stable position.

But if Putin succeeds in winning the current election in the past, I understand perfectly well how difficult the situation will be. In order for the country to once again rally around him, as happened at the beginning of the two thousandth, Vladimir Putin will have to build a new configuration of political power and control, or to restructure the existing one in a major way, which is likely to be even more difficult. Why? Yes, because today, on the eve of his next victory (let's call a spade a spade), he found himself on the ruins of a political system he had once built. The confrontation between the authorities and society, always inherent in Russia, and it, which has calmed down in the last decade, has become apparent again today. Moreover, the opposition is already visible within the government, within the Putin team, and this is also a very alarming symptom.

When Vladimir Putin came to power, he had one strategic goal - to recreate a strong Russia. And this, in turn, implied the solution of many internal problems in the political, economic and social life of the country, sometimes very unpopular and infringing on the interests of the political elite that had been formed by that time. As the air, the president needed a strong team of associates who were able to resist both the very old elite and the security threats to the country, of which there were a great many. And Putin has created such a team in full accordance with the tradition of those years in the system of checks and balances. So in the Kremlin, two clans were formed: the “siloviki”, with their inherently conservatively tough approach to solving any problems and the more liberal “civilians”. It is believed that the former were headed by Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, and secondly - by the deputy head of the presidential administration, Vladislav Surkov. Probably, initially the idea was absolutely correct. By using tough methods, the “siloviki” had to quickly rally the country at the level of regional political elites, consolidate domestic business and direct its interests primarily towards solving the country's problems. The “civilian” task lay more in the economic plane - the development and implementation of reforms in this area.

And everything, probably, would have turned out well, if not for one important circumstance. The head of state, of course, governs, and the environment governs on his behalf. And in the environment there was a construction in which two competing groups, on the one hand, worked for the good of the country, and on the other hand, having completely different views, approaches to problems and strategies of actions, in real life fought each other. For strengthening the personal power of the president, this is undoubtedly convenient, and for effective government of the country, it seems, not so much. Although, one cannot but admit: at the first stage, at the beginning of the two thousandth, it was the dominant policy of the “siloviki” that led to the strengthening of the country. Both on the domestic, Russian field, and in relations with the outside world surrounding it, a certain stability has appeared. But stability should not turn into stagnation, so there is no paradox that, in an atmosphere of relative prosperity achieved, the power and with it the threads of operational management began to gradually pass into the hands of "civilians." It was necessary to look into the future, build a platform for the next upcoming economic transformations.

The pendulum of power finally swung in the 2008 year, when Vladimir Putin chose as his successor not a “strongman” (in the political lobby then Sergey Ivanov’s candidacy was actively discussed), but Dmitry Medvedev and the clan of “civilians” with him. Perhaps, in this way, Putin wanted to preserve a certain well-established balance of power, only slightly shifting the emphasis in the domestic political hierarchy, and not priorities in the current power structure. But everything turned out exactly the opposite: the balance of power between the Kremlin clans was broken. The imperious resource of the “siloviks” has narrowed, and the proposals of the “civilians” to curtail the ideology of centralizing the economy and control over big business have completely removed the ground from under their feet. The clan "silovik", although it retained influence on a certain part of the bureaucratic corps and some major campaigns, began to crumble and go into the shadows.

Perhaps there would be nothing wrong with that. In the end, nothing lasts forever and certain elements of political structures are generated by the dictates of time, and over time, when there is no need for them, they die off. But it turned out that relations inside the “civil” clan are not developing in the best way. He never, unlike the “siloviki,” was distinguished by great cohesion and, in the absence of external opponents, began to search for them in their own ranks. Disputes between the "civil" about what is best to carry out reforms in the economy, domestic political and public life, how to do it, began to significantly affect the situation in the country. The global economic crisis also had a strong negative impact on their plans. In addition, the growing disagreements within the clan could not be kept secret, their echoes spilled over the Kremlin wall. Thus, the country learned about the conflict between Surkov and President Dmitry Medvedev, and the Russians saw a public quarrel between the head of state and the now Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin on live television. As a result, the latter, having gone to seemingly in voluntary retirement, began to flirt with the non-systemic opposition and more and more often speaks in favor of creating a new party. And with the transfer to the government to the unintelligible innovative direction of Surkov, the “civilians” lost their leader and political influence. In the end, both of the once powerful clans lost power, and if they didn’t collapse as yet completely, they certainly lost most of their influence on Russian politics. And it is on the eve of the election. And this, precisely at the moment when the anti-Kremlin movement began to gain momentum. By and large, however, not so much anti-Kremlin as anti-Putin.

The latter also needs explanation and understanding. Stability, even if it, in spite of economic difficulties and small political upheavals by inertia, soothes the country, is far from being understood by all its citizens. Years of relative prosperity led to the fact that the Russians had a sense of security. They are not afraid of the possibility of economic, social or political crises. And some of them developed the opinion that the “savior of the fatherland,” namely, Putin, by virtue of his previous merit to Russia, claiming this role, no longer needs them. Also, by the way, the miscalculation of the authorities and all its constituent clans and groups. They didn’t even think that over the past years a generation of people will grow up, having survived a transitional period still not at a conscious age and certainly not knowing what the Soviet Union is. And they did not think it through and, moreover, did not make any changes in their policies.

The situation has to be corrected on the go, in a terrible rush and using simple tools, such as rallies and processions in support of Putin. But no matter what benefit they bring, in opposition to the opposition, rallies will not replace the understanding of what course the country will take after the elections. Its formation has just begun and it is known that this is the successor of Surkov in the presidential administration Vyacheslav Volodin. It is also known that he, unlike his predecessor, is not a sophisticated politician, according to experts, is mostly straightforward.

But even with this introductory, Putin has almost no time to change the political landscape. Before the elections, it is hardly possible to cope with this task at all. But it is not necessary to expect that the wave of protest after them will subside. To confront it, as well as all the political, economic and social problems of the country, Putin will have to fully. But with whom will he do this, what will his environment be like? This is important because the strategic course of the state’s development depends on the environment.

At the end of January, Vladimir Putin promised that after the elections, there will be major personnel changes. But he didn’t explain the essence, making it clear that there will not be mass layoffs. What should this mean –the restoration of the established system of clans and groups with the same personalities?

But, in fact, the Russians are waiting for President Putin to do something completely different. Today, society is in great demand about the development of the political system, about reforming the ruling party with the obligatory appearance of completely new people in its ranks, with new programs that are primarily unifying, about creating a civilian filter to prevent politicians and rogues from appearing in politics. And there are many such ideas. Let's see which of them will be included in the new course of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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  1. +1
    28 February 2012 06: 53
    An opinion article, as I understand it, is also a review of the political results of the past "Putin" years. Well. Well - wait ...
    1. Sergh
      28 February 2012 07: 15
      Hi Valera! If you pay attention to the beginning of the article, I would like to say that the Russian people love troubles, every decade we have to get together, well, tired of quietly existing, it seems like everything is smooth, ordinary, boring. Over in the world, such as what huge events, but we are behind!

      The mass of people is completely reckless, stupid and stupid, not thinking about the consequences, but just to PR, there is already some kind of illness. Secondly, they sensed complete impunity and an imaginary revolutionary impulse, as the chirii on his ass jumped up, so you have to run somewhere headlong, the main thing is it doesn’t matter, just go ahead.
      These frisky ones, we must immediately besiege them, even by any methods it will work, the main thing is that the result be!
      1. +9
        28 February 2012 07: 42
        I also got the impression that the author made a certain review of his perception of Putin’s activities ... You can argue with many, much is obvious ... It is clear that at different times the country has naturally different tasks, it is clear that different people must solve different tasks ... In the situation with Medvedev, everything is clear .. His task was to stabilize the country, society, instill confidence in the future ... And in short, to make the Russians have something to lose .... With this task he coped ... And brilliantly ... Now, in the light of revitalization and opponents, as it doesn’t sound gloomy, we need to pursue a policy of tightening our belts and a kind of militarization of the economy .. We have declared ourselves as one of the main players in world politics, and you will have to pay for it ... Therefore, Putin will now fit into the situation with his tough stance on all issues is excellent ... And so is the article plus ... Really interesting opinion ...
  2. dark silver
    28 February 2012 07: 16
    everything is well-defined, but it’s necessary to survive before the elections, otherwise one attempt has already been revealed on the GDP sad
    1. Neighbor
      28 February 2012 07: 38
      That would not have yelled all
      Quote: Sergh
      The mass of people completely crazy, stupid and stupid

      Anal-Nemtsov mongrel is shorter, Putin is great and worthy to be president. Namely SPAS he is Russia in the 90s. Saved from schism, poverty and bandits. He raised production and the army to his feet. He put things in order. Thanks to him now - the Sea of ​​work, Pensions are paid, salaries are increased for the emergency workers, factories are plowed, the army receives weapons, medicine is developing, roads are being built, etc. etc. He rolls around the country - solves problems, and does not sit on .ope like Zyuganov, and does not yell rubbish like Zhirik.
      For the future of Russia-means For Putin !!! drinks
      1. negabaritnyy
        28 February 2012 11: 09
        That SPAS he Russia in the 90s

        But isn't he the president since May 7, 2000? He did everything he could, time to rest. Just who to replace him with?
    2. +3
      28 February 2012 07: 44
      We will survive ... And it’s stupid to encroach on Putin now ... After the election, it’s much more urgent to destroy any opponent of Putin ... Then you can play on the idea of ​​state terror ... Westerners would love to accept such an idea ...
    3. negabaritnyy
      28 February 2012 11: 06
      Yeah, right before the election! Work well, well done!
  3. Volkhov
    28 February 2012 08: 11
    According to the standard of modern information, the main purpose is the picture - on it is an ancient coat of arms, stylized showing a picture of the physical fields of the Earth in section, plotted on a pendulum, which only remains to swing ...
    The text carries only the information that the population is completely off topic.
    The topic is the top, including Putin, but he shows the herd exciting prospects, and not a cliff underfoot, and the herd, with the help of curatorial agitators, rushes forward, but the sheep do not fly ...
    There is a whole year ahead to think or fly.
    1. Volkhov
      29 February 2012 15: 41
      The picture was replaced with a wise face - is it the author, or big brother?
  4. +6
    28 February 2012 08: 25
    In man, and in society as a whole, the economic law of increasing needs is genetically laid down. Only 11 years passed and many began to forget:
    1. Where was Russia in the nearby 2000?
    2. Where were all the current "democrats" and saviors of Russia and what were they doing?
    3. Who brought Russia out of a state of general degradation and inevitable collapse?

    Everyone knows the answer, but alas, not everyone remembers!
    1. Neighbor
      28 February 2012 09: 25
      For Putin !!! drinks
    28 February 2012 09: 04
    Time will show everything that comes next ..
  6. Evil Tatar
    28 February 2012 09: 08
    If you can really talk about Surkov and Sechin and other comrades, you can understand who these people are ... Truth is, as always, deeply hidden, and not many of us will be given to find out where, by whom it is hidden, who keeps it ...
    I don’t dare to impose my opinion, but I read about these and several other characters of today's top officials at the beginning of the already distant 2008, when these faces had not yet appeared on television, when about the Barbarossa-3 plan, and about the Farvest company, its goals and objectives, very few people knew, in the environment of the world, vaasche no one ... In this sense, I am very interested in the person of Mr. Kurginyan, and Svnidze ... Och intrigues their joint project - "Court of Time" ...
    And now, the Burtsev.ru group is not represented by its revealing materials, but in a wide open space ... Like, if you are interested, you will find out about us ...
    The guys give out reference materials, show the physical links of the publication heroes, reveal the historical reasons for the appearance of such people, point out the motives of their game on the side of the enemies.
    I do not dare to say that the group of analysts Burtsev.ru is a cathedral of true patriots of Russia, and not an alternative wing of an anti-Russian gang that is hating its competitors ...
    But, materials from five years ago, already then very clearly describe the reasons and tasks of the enemies, the desire of "some" who wish, and specific people from the special services, to have fun in the vastness of Russia, under the wing, under the roof of the state ...
    Determine the degree of danger of such fun. They talk lucidly, without hysteria, about people - potentially representing bourgeois forces aimed at dismantling Russia as such.
    They indicate the origins and motives of the appearance of these people on the horizon of Russian politics, point to their role in world aggression against the Russian world.
    Who cares: http://left.ru/burtsev/
    I am very interested to know your opinion about this ...
  7. +2
    28 February 2012 09: 40
    I’m not wandering around the Internet dumps, to be honest. It's a pity. You can find compromise there for any more or less active politician (and not just politics). The info-war began immediately after Putin came to power, so I don’t really believe in such castings. I judge people’s affairs. I’m also not authorized to give advice. I think that during the premiership, the GDP looked at Russia from one side (which is very noticeable in the rise of our economy) and learned how to select sensible people in a team. Therefore, I don’t see an alternative to it, and I believe what will do as it should after the election.
    1. Evil Tatar
      28 February 2012 11: 24
      Quote: sergo0000
      The GDP looked at Russia from one side (which is very noticeable in the rise of our economy) and learned how to select sensible people in a team, so I don’t see an alternative to it, and I believe that it will do as it should after the election.

      It was not about Putin, it was about huddled along the road ...
      T.S. jumping on the go.
      It's not about compromising information, but about analytical calculations with elements of historical information ...
      What the hell am I?
      I did not intend to persuade, just information, as about Stirlitz ...
      Name, place of service, character, communication, etc.
  8. grizzlir
    28 February 2012 09: 54
    I am waiting for 4th, sooner this nausea campaign on the site would end.
    Quote: Neighbor
    For Putin !!! drinks

    Dear neighbor, you can sleep well.
  9. 916-th
    28 February 2012 10: 06
    Pendulum? There, here, back - you and I are pleased ...
    The swing time of the pendulum between power clans or between Putin and Medvedev is over. No more time to swing the pendulum!

    The pendulum must transform into a cannonball, fired by the strong and rigid hand of the leader of the nation. The nation demands this and will not tolerate another.

    The leader, in turn, must unite all healthy patriotic forces around him, regardless of the inter-party differences. There are a lot of them, talented, knowledgeable people, thinking on a national scale, but scattered on different political platforms. Leonid Ivashov, Zhores Alferov and many others. It's time for them to get out of the nests and flock into a single flock.
  10. +5
    28 February 2012 10: 33
    One simple recipe is to give a damn about Roman law and return to Russian Truth. Those. live not by legal verbiage, but by conscience. Why are bureaucrats sovereign? Because the judges are members of the same clan of "celestials". And they will always find something in legal terms to justify a pedophile (thief, murderer), and imprison an innocent person. A man killed a pedophile in Vladik, he was imprisoned. For what? Does he pose a threat to society? Or to discourage others to kill pedophiles? And if not the first or the second, then why did they go to jail?
    Either the state will figure out how to judge by conscience, or the people will start to organize lynching (as it happened in Blagoveshchensk and happened in Sagra). There is no third.
  11. +1
    28 February 2012 11: 03
    And what! I fully support! MAGADAN +
    Russian Truth is the way out. Let the Islamists live according to Sharia law, Europe and the states according to Roman law. And we are according to the Russian truth! And where the law is violated, answer according to these laws.
  12. 0
    28 February 2012 11: 40
    Angry Tatar.
    It was not about Putin, it was
    goes about snuggled by
    the road ...
  13. Dmitry.V
    28 February 2012 11: 42


    One policy on the Internet is this video for all orange hamsters and plankton.
  14. Odinplys
    28 February 2012 13: 44
    You just need to believe in Russia ...
    Putin needs to be trusted, he is OUR ... he is not a traitor ... he knows what to do ...
    Russia is on its feet ..and ... will go further ...
    Putin must be supported by all ... who consider themselves patriots ...
  15. Uralm
    28 February 2012 17: 15
    There is such a thing as the Spirit of the winner, the Spirit of the first! And here, after the revolution, we still lost sight of it. So do not. Putin has this spirit! and God forbid not to lose
  16. +2
    28 February 2012 22: 34
    Today, ideas about the development of the political system, about the reform of the party in power with the obligatory appearance of completely new people in its ranks, with new programs that are primarily unifying in nature, about the creation of a civil filter to prevent the appearance of corrupt officials and crooks in politics are in great demand by society. And there are many such ideas. Let's see which of them will be included in the new course of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    That's right ... Putin is now the champion weightlifter. Raised an extremely record weight (did not let destroy Russia), now you need to set an absolute record (restore former greatness and strength).

"Right Sector" (banned in Russia), "Ukrainian Insurgent Army" (UPA) (banned in Russia), ISIS (banned in Russia), "Jabhat Fatah al-Sham" formerly "Jabhat al-Nusra" (banned in Russia) , Taliban (banned in Russia), Al-Qaeda (banned in Russia), Anti-Corruption Foundation (banned in Russia), Navalny Headquarters (banned in Russia), Facebook (banned in Russia), Instagram (banned in Russia), Meta (banned in Russia), Misanthropic Division (banned in Russia), Azov (banned in Russia), Muslim Brotherhood (banned in Russia), Aum Shinrikyo (banned in Russia), AUE (banned in Russia), UNA-UNSO (banned in Russia), Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People (banned in Russia), Legion “Freedom of Russia” (armed formation, recognized as terrorist in the Russian Federation and banned)

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