If Russia loses Venezuela ...
The sting of world democracy is aimed at a new sacrifice. President of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro was elected as this victim. For months now, many thousands of protest rallies are taking place on the streets of Caracas and other major Venezuelan cities, at which people come out not only of their own free will, but also at the call of the Venezuelan irreconcilable opposition, the leader of which declared himself Enrique Capriles Radonsky - the former governor of the state of Miranda and the ex presidential candidate who conceded Maduro with a slight lag (scored 49% of votes).
This result reveals one of, as they say, the underlying causes of the Venezuelan protest. To concede only a couple of percent, taking into account the possible error in the manual calculations - no one likes. And Capriles, too. 45-year-old Enrique, having twice lost the election - first Chavez, then Maduro - held a dislike for the current government in the soul, and decided, having received approval from there, to arrange a Venezuelan version of Maidan. Moreover, about a month ago, the Supreme Court of Venezuela deprived Capriles Radonsky of the right to hold public office for a term of 15 years. “Resentment” intensified, and Capriles (his maternal grandfather was born in Russia, and then moved to Poland) openly began to urge Venezuelans not only to take to the streets and express their protest, but also to “throw off” from the presidential chair Nicolas Maduro.
At the same time, Capriles felt that the moment for his revenge was the most appropriate. The fact is that Venezuela is actually split into two irreconcilable camps. Moreover, Maduro's opponents in the country are becoming more and more, due to the severe economic crisis facing the country and the people. The crisis affected the citizens in a way that probably did not affect any other country in the Latin American region. The main reason is that the Venezuelan economy is tied to the export of energy resources, the prices of which continue to remain at the level that is clearly not enough to replenish the budget to the necessary volumes.
Venezuela's public debt has exceeded billion dollars for 67. The financial performance of exports is such that 90% of export earnings go to the treasury from the sale of oil. Maduro, realizing the need for economic reforms in his own way, decided to limit the population’s access to foreign currency. This led to the collapse of the national currency (Bolivar). Moreover, the official rate differs from the rate on the black market by more than a third. Government financial authorities have virtually ceased to attract currency flows from the business, the level of investment has collapsed to the level of the middle of the 90-s, and oil is no longer salvaged.
At the same time, the opposition states that both Chavez and Maduro in the years when oil was trading at high levels could not do anything to reduce the country's economy’s dependence on hydrocarbon exports. With this you can not argue. That would just do something Capriles, having received power - a big question that remains unanswered.
The Economist magazine writes that the government also decided to turn on the printing press, hoping to solve problems the way it used to be done in the United States. But what is allowed to Jupiter ... The printing press of Venezuela led to hyperinflation. Manufacturers began to lose interest in creating products, including food. This led to a total shortage of goods, even in major cities of the country. And all these actions allegedly increase among the Venezuelans the authority of the opposition, which, without disdaining to rush into populism, promises that Capriles will definitely bring the country out of the impasse, and the country will heal and step into a bright Venezuelan future.
And here it should be noted that the "friends of Venezuela" tried to do everything so that Maduro began to make one economic mistake after another. First of all, we are talking about the so-called sectoral sanctions imposed on the United States against Venezuela. In general, exactly what the United States tried and continues to do with Russia is to strike at strategically important sectors of the economy, cut off opportunities for external lending, create a protest movement. And with Russia, the United States has much more problems in this regard than with Venezuela ...
The problem for Venezuela is precisely that without the support of the United States, this Capriles, as they say, no one can call him. Therefore, in his speeches one can constantly hear the thesis about the need to "restore confidence between Caracas and Washington." And the fact that the "friendship" of the United States has a strictly defined interest, to say - too much. Already, Venezuela has been flooded with all sorts of public "human rights" organizations, for which the economic problems of Venezuela and ordinary Venezuelans are just what they are willing to consider from the point of view of US interests. Now Venezuelans are interesting to Washington only because with their help it is possible to change the power in the oil-bearing country for the one that will be pulled into a string only with one mention of the United States of America and their “great friendship”.
Western media actively publish materials about the Venezuelan "onizhedetyah", which "oppose the repressive machine Maduro." The fact that Maduro agreed to go on certain concessions to the opposition and convene a Constituent Assembly, which will consider the possibility of political transformation in the country, doesn’t care about Western propagandists.
Despite the fact that last Friday Maduro ordered to cool down the heat of the protesters with water cannons, the situation is unlikely to calm down in the near future. The US Congress has already passed a bill on the provision of "humanitarian aid" to Venezuela. As stated in the explanatory note to the bill, the United States allocates 20 million dollars to "support democracy" in this country. In other words, the Venezuelan opposition is throwing up some money so that it can support the protest in the near future and, if possible, with small means, dismiss Maduro, who is not distinguished by fraternal love towards the States. In general, "onizhedetyam" to disperse from the streets to continue to learn and work, just will not give. Local radicals are also catching up to them, who for American money are capable of anything.
The army and the police are on the side of the current president. And here, perhaps, it is worth considering the question of which place the situation could turn towards Russia if another “democratic peremoga” happens - now in Venezuela - against the background of a hypothetical possibility of the transfer of security forces to the side of the protesters to American funds.
Immediately it should be said that one cannot count on the loyalty of a possible new leadership to Russia. Moreover, Kapriles, even if he has a desire not to break contacts with the Russian Federation, simply will not allow such a desire to be realized. For the carrot in the form of the lifting of sanctions against Venezuela and the Capriles presidential chair, they will simply be forced to idolize the United States, which they are already training in themselves. But Venezuela has a truly impressive fleet of Russian-made military equipment acquired in recent years. Moreover, Venezuela is a stable customer of new Russian weapons, replenishing the budget of Russian industrial enterprises with billions of dollars. To lose such a large customer of armaments and military equipment is to cede the traditional market to American "partners."
By the way, what of the Russian / modernized Soviet technology is available in the Venezuelan arsenal?
These are the Msta-S self-propelled howitzers delivered to Caracas, the Pechora-2М anti-aircraft missile systems (C-125-2М), C-300ВМ (Antey-2500), Buk-2МE, automated machine-based fire control systems M ”, Su-30МКВ fighters, Il-76МД-90 military transporters, Il-78МК tanker, various Russian helicopters (Mi-17В5, Mi-26Т2, multipurpose Mi-35М). Negotiations are underway to supply Venezuela with the latest Russian fighter Su-35, patrol boats.
The loss of Venezuela by Russia does not just discard our country from this impressive market and makes it impossible to make money on maintenance of the equipment supplied, but also deprives the presence of an important partner not only in the military-industrial sphere, but also in the sphere of regulating the hydrocarbon market. Lined up over the years, the risks run off. At the same time for Venezuela itself there are significant risks to plunge into the mouth of the civil war. Chaos ideologists have enough.
From the statement of the Ministry of Defense of Venezuela:
Hopefully, this is true. I would like to hope that today, both in Moscow and in Caracas, they understand the price of defeat from those forces for whom the real interests of the citizens of Venezuela are only a shell for translating the country into the manual control of Washington. It is also necessary to understand that the problem cannot be solved only with a “stick”, and therefore Venezuela as a unified state with enormous potentials cannot simply withstand economic reforms - political hyenas will wait in the wings and drag them to pieces.
This result reveals one of, as they say, the underlying causes of the Venezuelan protest. To concede only a couple of percent, taking into account the possible error in the manual calculations - no one likes. And Capriles, too. 45-year-old Enrique, having twice lost the election - first Chavez, then Maduro - held a dislike for the current government in the soul, and decided, having received approval from there, to arrange a Venezuelan version of Maidan. Moreover, about a month ago, the Supreme Court of Venezuela deprived Capriles Radonsky of the right to hold public office for a term of 15 years. “Resentment” intensified, and Capriles (his maternal grandfather was born in Russia, and then moved to Poland) openly began to urge Venezuelans not only to take to the streets and express their protest, but also to “throw off” from the presidential chair Nicolas Maduro.
At the same time, Capriles felt that the moment for his revenge was the most appropriate. The fact is that Venezuela is actually split into two irreconcilable camps. Moreover, Maduro's opponents in the country are becoming more and more, due to the severe economic crisis facing the country and the people. The crisis affected the citizens in a way that probably did not affect any other country in the Latin American region. The main reason is that the Venezuelan economy is tied to the export of energy resources, the prices of which continue to remain at the level that is clearly not enough to replenish the budget to the necessary volumes.
Venezuela's public debt has exceeded billion dollars for 67. The financial performance of exports is such that 90% of export earnings go to the treasury from the sale of oil. Maduro, realizing the need for economic reforms in his own way, decided to limit the population’s access to foreign currency. This led to the collapse of the national currency (Bolivar). Moreover, the official rate differs from the rate on the black market by more than a third. Government financial authorities have virtually ceased to attract currency flows from the business, the level of investment has collapsed to the level of the middle of the 90-s, and oil is no longer salvaged.
At the same time, the opposition states that both Chavez and Maduro in the years when oil was trading at high levels could not do anything to reduce the country's economy’s dependence on hydrocarbon exports. With this you can not argue. That would just do something Capriles, having received power - a big question that remains unanswered.
The Economist magazine writes that the government also decided to turn on the printing press, hoping to solve problems the way it used to be done in the United States. But what is allowed to Jupiter ... The printing press of Venezuela led to hyperinflation. Manufacturers began to lose interest in creating products, including food. This led to a total shortage of goods, even in major cities of the country. And all these actions allegedly increase among the Venezuelans the authority of the opposition, which, without disdaining to rush into populism, promises that Capriles will definitely bring the country out of the impasse, and the country will heal and step into a bright Venezuelan future.
And here it should be noted that the "friends of Venezuela" tried to do everything so that Maduro began to make one economic mistake after another. First of all, we are talking about the so-called sectoral sanctions imposed on the United States against Venezuela. In general, exactly what the United States tried and continues to do with Russia is to strike at strategically important sectors of the economy, cut off opportunities for external lending, create a protest movement. And with Russia, the United States has much more problems in this regard than with Venezuela ...
The problem for Venezuela is precisely that without the support of the United States, this Capriles, as they say, no one can call him. Therefore, in his speeches one can constantly hear the thesis about the need to "restore confidence between Caracas and Washington." And the fact that the "friendship" of the United States has a strictly defined interest, to say - too much. Already, Venezuela has been flooded with all sorts of public "human rights" organizations, for which the economic problems of Venezuela and ordinary Venezuelans are just what they are willing to consider from the point of view of US interests. Now Venezuelans are interesting to Washington only because with their help it is possible to change the power in the oil-bearing country for the one that will be pulled into a string only with one mention of the United States of America and their “great friendship”.
Western media actively publish materials about the Venezuelan "onizhedetyah", which "oppose the repressive machine Maduro." The fact that Maduro agreed to go on certain concessions to the opposition and convene a Constituent Assembly, which will consider the possibility of political transformation in the country, doesn’t care about Western propagandists.
Despite the fact that last Friday Maduro ordered to cool down the heat of the protesters with water cannons, the situation is unlikely to calm down in the near future. The US Congress has already passed a bill on the provision of "humanitarian aid" to Venezuela. As stated in the explanatory note to the bill, the United States allocates 20 million dollars to "support democracy" in this country. In other words, the Venezuelan opposition is throwing up some money so that it can support the protest in the near future and, if possible, with small means, dismiss Maduro, who is not distinguished by fraternal love towards the States. In general, "onizhedetyam" to disperse from the streets to continue to learn and work, just will not give. Local radicals are also catching up to them, who for American money are capable of anything.
The army and the police are on the side of the current president. And here, perhaps, it is worth considering the question of which place the situation could turn towards Russia if another “democratic peremoga” happens - now in Venezuela - against the background of a hypothetical possibility of the transfer of security forces to the side of the protesters to American funds.
Immediately it should be said that one cannot count on the loyalty of a possible new leadership to Russia. Moreover, Kapriles, even if he has a desire not to break contacts with the Russian Federation, simply will not allow such a desire to be realized. For the carrot in the form of the lifting of sanctions against Venezuela and the Capriles presidential chair, they will simply be forced to idolize the United States, which they are already training in themselves. But Venezuela has a truly impressive fleet of Russian-made military equipment acquired in recent years. Moreover, Venezuela is a stable customer of new Russian weapons, replenishing the budget of Russian industrial enterprises with billions of dollars. To lose such a large customer of armaments and military equipment is to cede the traditional market to American "partners."
By the way, what of the Russian / modernized Soviet technology is available in the Venezuelan arsenal?
These are the Msta-S self-propelled howitzers delivered to Caracas, the Pechora-2М anti-aircraft missile systems (C-125-2М), C-300ВМ (Antey-2500), Buk-2МE, automated machine-based fire control systems M ”, Su-30МКВ fighters, Il-76МД-90 military transporters, Il-78МК tanker, various Russian helicopters (Mi-17В5, Mi-26Т2, multipurpose Mi-35М). Negotiations are underway to supply Venezuela with the latest Russian fighter Su-35, patrol boats.
The loss of Venezuela by Russia does not just discard our country from this impressive market and makes it impossible to make money on maintenance of the equipment supplied, but also deprives the presence of an important partner not only in the military-industrial sphere, but also in the sphere of regulating the hydrocarbon market. Lined up over the years, the risks run off. At the same time for Venezuela itself there are significant risks to plunge into the mouth of the civil war. Chaos ideologists have enough.
From the statement of the Ministry of Defense of Venezuela:
We will not allow chaos in Venezuela and preserve the constitutional order.
Hopefully, this is true. I would like to hope that today, both in Moscow and in Caracas, they understand the price of defeat from those forces for whom the real interests of the citizens of Venezuela are only a shell for translating the country into the manual control of Washington. It is also necessary to understand that the problem cannot be solved only with a “stick”, and therefore Venezuela as a unified state with enormous potentials cannot simply withstand economic reforms - political hyenas will wait in the wings and drag them to pieces.
- Alexei Volodin
- https://sdelanounas.ru, Твиттер
Information