Military Review

Russia is predicting a military, economic and political battle for Cyprus

37
After a large-scale gas field was discovered on the Cyprus shelf by the American company Noble Energy at the end of last year, problems between official Nicosia and the authorities of the partially recognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus have heated up to the limit. For obvious reasons, official Cyprus believes that about 200 billion cubic meters of gas, located in the depths of the shelf, belong to it, therefore Cypriots are going to manage their unexpected wealth. Nicosia is not going to recognize the independence of Northern Cyprus, as well as its claims on blue fuel.


The gas field is really impressive. If you translate its contents into monetary units, it is almost 80 billion dollars, which in turn exceeds the GDP of the Republic of Cyprus exactly three times. The development of such a gas field can cover all the debts of Cypriots, which they managed to accumulate in recent years. In addition to the fact that there is gas on the Cyprus shelf, experts do not exclude that in the near future an oil field can also be found in the same region of the Mediterranean Sea. If so, then Cyprus is quite capable of becoming one of the largest exporters of hydrocarbon raw materials in southern Europe. But things are not as simple as they might seem.

Firstly, as already noted, problems immediately arose with the development, as Northern Cyprus, with the active support of Turkey, stated that without any consent of its authorities, there could be no development. You can imagine the reaction of Northern Cyprus, because all the proceeds from the sale of gas can pass by it. In this regard, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus will try to prevent Nicosia from starting the development of a gas field on the shelf. One of the reasons for this is the unresolved territorial dispute, the second reason is the classical reproaches of the possible damage to the ecosystem of the region after the start of development on the shelf.

Secondly, the problem also lies in the fact who Nicosia will entrust to work on the extraction of gas. American, Israeli and Russian companies are among the applicants for mining. The Americans say that Nicosia should provide them with this opportunity, because it was thanks to the efforts of Noble Energy that gas reserves were discovered. The Israelis say that cooperation with them is economically feasible, since Israel is just closer, so it can start producing blue fuel in the shortest possible time. Russia, on the other hand, presented its rivals with a trump card that can fundamentally solve the situation in favor of Gazprom. This trump card represents the allocation of Cyprus 2,5 billions of euros in assistance to overcome the financial crisis. While Israelis and Americans are convincing Nicosia with the help of their arguments, Nicosia has already managed to receive the first tranche from Russia in the amount of almost 600 million euros. It is reported that such a loan from Moscow is provided at a very benign interest. That is why Gazprom has the right to expect that the contract will be concluded with him, and not with competitors from Israel and the United States.

By the way, financial assistance to Cyprus has caused really heavy disputes among Russian economists. It was also fueling the fact that, for the first time in the last 11 years, expenses in January for 2012 exceeded revenues. Specialists managed to tie it up not only with a multiple increase in the monetary allowance of servicemen in Russia, but also with the very preferential loan to the Republic of Cyprus. Someone managed to announce that the Russian authorities made a completely thoughtless move, helping Europe in its struggle with the crisis. However, as it turned out, economic assistance to Cyprus, which, by the way, is financially closely connected with Greece in distress, can allow it to breathe life-giving power into the economy of the island. In addition, Cyprus can receive the status of the gas power. Naturally, Gazprom also expects to increase serious dividends from its activities on the shelf near the island.

However, here a few more problems emerge, which cannot be said about. To begin with, consider the situation when Cyprus will indeed become one of the gas exporting countries. In this case, if we consider the long-term perspective, Russia can already be in a rather unpleasant situation. Why should Southern Europe buy Russian gas when, one can say, the very same 80 billion cubic meters of gas from Cyprus are under her hand. Whatever one may say, Russia will either have to lower the selling prices for its gas, or accept the appearance of a competitor, which it is trying to grow. Another thing is if Gazprom gets a controlling stake over a field on the Cyprus shelf, and then Russia will acquire the right to control the flow of blue fuel from the island of Cyprus to Europe. The prospect is certainly tempting for the same Gazprom, but ... Will the West allow itself to miss the real chance to diversify the supply of hydrocarbons from Russia. The probability is close to zero.

In this regard, on the site there is another very powerful regional player who can confuse all the cards both to the West and Russia. This is Turkey. For Ankara, in general, any positive situation with the development of a gas field on the Cyprus shelf means its own defeat. Firstly, Northern Cyprus will finally turn into Nicosia’s poor and unrecognized neighbor. The flow of emigrants from the TRNC to the territory of the Republic of Cyprus will obviously increase due to the emergence of additional jobs and the inflow of investments. Secondly, Turkey cannot allow Israel or Russia to take away such a tidbit as offshore gas from under its nose. Today, Turkey’s fears have resulted in Erdogan’s decision to strengthen the grouping of warships in the Mediterranean and Aegean seas. The Turks even came up with a name for their plan, which, frankly, confuses hearing and causes unhealthy associations - the “Barbarossa Plan”. This military action was named after the Ottoman Admiral Barbarossa II, who, rather, can be called a pirate. The speaking title fully describes the contours of Turkish claims. In fact, without having any legal basis for participation in the development of a gas field on the Cyprus shelf, Erdogan is going to prevent others from starting development in this region.

Hotheads are already predicting a possible war for Cyprus gas between Israel, Russia and Turkey, and the war itself is quite real. However, the appearance of another hotbed of tension, and even on the territory of the European Union, seems rather vague. But the manifestations of economic confrontations and political "hairpins" can be expected in the near future. The indisputable fact is that Russia will really have to fight for Cyprus, because several tens of thousands of Russian-speaking people live on the island, here the Russian business has big interests (besides the gas companies), and Cyprus has long become an offshore paradise for Russian oligarchs. Therefore, the battle for Cyprus of political and financial titans, in which ordinary Russians will become only outside observers, can be viewed as a plot that will be demonstrated in a short time.
Author:
37 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. domokl
    domokl 20 February 2012 09: 45 New
    +7
    I sit high, look far away ... I really have to fight ... Nothing personal, just business ... Cypriot gas really confuses the cards for everyone, but ... Let me continue the topic ... Do you think that gas has become a catalyst for what is happening in Greece? Isn’t the dog buried here? You didn’t take into account that the Greeks control this region, and Greece is Germany’s largest borrower .. It is Germany that can practically rule this country alone ... So not all participants in the game are named ... Germany will get even stronger positions than Russia and Turkey ...
    1. StrategBV
      StrategBV 20 February 2012 09: 49 New
      +9
      To be honest, there will be a different struggle, for Russia, resources like gas and oil are not critical, we have enough, but political influence and taking resources from overseas potential not quite friends is sacred drinks
    2. Ltree
      Ltree 20 February 2012 14: 32 New
      +3
      done right.
      1. recitatorus
        recitatorus 20 February 2012 18: 18 New
        +5
        Cyprus, Gazprom, offshore companies, oligarchs, and 600 million. For some reason, state-owned, read - the people? Strange! ..
    3. Pancho
      Pancho 20 February 2012 19: 15 New
      0
      “It is Germany who can practically single-handedly rule this country.” Come on, Hitler did not succeed, but where did the new Germans succeed?
    4. damba
      damba 20 February 2012 19: 18 New
      -1
      Dear domoki Germany, although it rules Greece, but not Greece, than the Greeks can oppose the Turkish and Israeli Navy in the near future, the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be rebuilt again and will be a mahach where we will simply demolish the Turks and Israel in an open battle
      The thing is different what kind of war it will be. If the large-scale Turks don’t live especially if Syria falls and they have enough problems on the same side, Israel will not be able to greet it powerful but not by opposing our and Turkish forces it can flow from its shores.
  2. itr
    itr 20 February 2012 09: 56 New
    +7
    The Greeks are our allies, even though they are poor and Russia will always support Greece, since they have only enemies of the Turks and they are our potential enemy. Che, they forgot that they took away all the Azov and half of the Black Sea. Yes, and the fleet there I can place about Cyprus. Oil and gas have nothing to do with it. the problem has been going on for centuries
    1. does it
      does it 20 February 2012 10: 17 New
      +3
      (Che they think they forgot that they took all the Azov and half of the Black Sea) you mean the Turkish territories, which used to belong to the Byzantine Greek empires! and now part of it belongs to us, did I understand you correctly?
      1. itr
        itr 20 February 2012 11: 06 New
        +1
        Yes, it was about these territories that I wrote
    2. Cripple cross
      Cripple cross 20 February 2012 12: 32 New
      +7
      Greece and Russia are also the closest comrades-in-religion, since the time of the baptism of Russia. Orthodox need to be supported smile
      1. does it
        does it 24 February 2012 18: 44 New
        +1
        I do not argue with you but! will they support us .......
    3. Ltree
      Ltree 20 February 2012 14: 30 New
      +1
      supports? Turkey itself is supplying its gas, which Russia bought from Greece, due to the crisis in the country. Something I have not heard that Russia is doing the same, although Russian gas.
      1. core
        core 20 February 2012 16: 37 New
        0
        dear, you must have made a mistake, now neither one, nor anyone, nor what gives, but only sells.
    4. Denis
      Denis 20 February 2012 18: 13 New
      +7
      Quote: itr
      Greeks are our allies

      Do they know about it?
      1. itr
        itr 21 February 2012 06: 48 New
        -1
        Most likely through whose territory our troops entered Yugoslavia?
    5. kagorta
      kagorta 21 February 2012 08: 04 New
      +2
      Cyprus is an English base.
  3. 755962
    755962 20 February 2012 11: 04 New
    +3
    Now all the countries of the world have rushed to look for oil and gas on their shelves. I imagine what will happen when the body movements begin to discover and how this will end, one can only guess. Here are at least examples with Argentina and Ireland.
  4. Ziksura
    Ziksura 20 February 2012 11: 07 New
    +4
    Yes, there is something to fight for. And we have already gotten into this fight. Success will not only give us economic dividends.
    That's why they do not want to see a strong Russia - why do they need such a competitor.
  5. PabloMsk
    PabloMsk 20 February 2012 11: 09 New
    +2
    Yes, a bleak picture .....
    Just gathered in old age to move to Cyprus ......
  6. papss
    papss 20 February 2012 11: 11 New
    +6
    Russia is regaining its influence in the Mediterranean Sea. But here the approaches must be weighed. Both Turkey and Greece are members of NATO. And long-standing rivals. On the edge of their contradictions, it would be nice to gain a foothold on the shelf.
    1. Kyrgyz
      Kyrgyz 20 February 2012 19: 24 New
      +3
      without the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, we can’t see any serious positions in the Mediterranean
  7. Born in USSR
    Born in USSR 20 February 2012 11: 23 New
    +2
    And in Cyprus, a bunch of offshore companies that belong to our elite are open ... So the motivation for the face ...
  8. Brother Sarych
    Brother Sarych 20 February 2012 11: 29 New
    0
    As long as it is possible to understand that the so-called "National Heritage" has already laid out 600 lemons just like the people's money for the pie in the sky?
    It is possible that all companies involved in such a heated dispute really belong to the same people, because for a long time no one knows the owner in person ...
  9. General
    General 20 February 2012 12: 41 New
    +2
    ours yesterday announced that they would not participate so that the article is unrealistic
    1. Bear52
      Bear52 21 February 2012 05: 09 New
      +1
      Wow! Well, okay! What a fucker is there, what for we need it!
  10. itr
    itr 20 February 2012 14: 13 New
    0
    Well, and how after this the Ukrainians (Dear admins) are not called Ami?
    1. itr
      itr 20 February 2012 14: 44 New
      -1
      Ha didn’t write the sedan in the right place. laughing
      1. montemor
        montemor 20 February 2012 18: 20 New
        0
        Che smoked ?????????????????????????????????????? ???????????
  11. Ltree
    Ltree 20 February 2012 14: 27 New
    +6
    Barbarossa sailed only under the Ottoman flag. Although he acted like a pirate, he was not a pirate. Just as he behaved at sea, so did other European navigators. And the Europeans began to call him a pirate. And nothing hurts the ear this name! He was a great navigator. One could repel the fleets of 7 countries. And it is silly to write disgustingly "hurts the ear." Everything hurts your ears, not beautiful, not clever, that is not connected with you. And Barbarossa is worth respect at least for what, he was not afraid to be one against everyone.
  12. figwam
    figwam 20 February 2012 15: 26 New
    +3
    One way out is to build a military base in Cyprus.
  13. SoVIet ZiMBo_O
    SoVIet ZiMBo_O 20 February 2012 15: 36 New
    0
    Hmm, as I see it is a delicate matter. Yes, you need to come and pick up this Cyprus with all its losses, that’s it! This has strengthened Russian superiority over energy carriers in Europe, I think so.
  14. montemor
    montemor 20 February 2012 18: 24 New
    +2
    The countries of southern Europe are diversifying their gas supplies. Today, Gazprom is not the main market player in this region, a lot of gas comes from Algeria. but if Gazprom gains control of the Cypriot field, this will be the number good
  15. Senza
    Senza 20 February 2012 21: 32 New
    +3
    A few months ago I read the predictions of Elder Paisius from Athos.
    Greek officers came to him and asked - what is the fate of Constantinople?
    It seemed to me fantastic, and then I suddenly saw this news about Cyprus.
    And he immediately remembered the old man ... That's what he answered the officers (these are clippings, there are a lot of text):

    Russians want to enter the Mediterranean Sea. It will be a spring. But this is not entirely true. The truth is that God will call them as his warriors. Going down, they will destroy the Turks in one week. And when the friends of Turkey - NATO come down to save her, then there will be a big clash, and they will be killed.
    .................................................. .........

    In Constantinople there will be a big war between Russians and Europeans, a lot of blood will be shed. Greece will not play a big role in this war, but Constantinople will be given to it. But not because the Russians respect us so much, but because they will not find a better solution to the issue and will complete their actions with this agreement with Greece.
    The Greek army does not even have time to enter Constantinople, as it will be given to it.
    .............................................................

    Today, who reads the prophets' predictions, as if reading the “newspaper” of the Future, everything is written so clearly. Logic tells me that big events will happen: the Russians will understand the plans of Turkey, and Turkey as a state will disappear from the map: because one third of the Turks will become Christians, one third will die, and one third will go to Mesopotamia. The Middle East will be a field of war in which the Russians will conquer part of the territory. A lot of blood will be shed, and two hundred million Chinese troops will cross the Euphrates River and move to Jerusalem. A characteristic sign that these events are approaching will be the overthrow of the mosques of Omar, for this overthrow will mean the beginning of the restoration of the Temple of King Solomon, which when it was built on this very site.
    .................................................. .......................

    Jews, because they will have the strength and help from Europe ... become insolent, proud and will boast of their arrogance, and try to rule Europe. Then two-thirds of the Jews will become Christians.
    .................................................. ...................

    Those that destroyed Byzantium were not Turks, they were crusaders - Europeans, Catholics, who provoked the Turks to ruin Byzantium. God will gather them all in one place, they will be killed. You are still young, you will see it. A great crash will happen soon, Armageddon. What has begun in the Balkans can no longer be stopped. Anyone who wants to prevent the Russian leadership from unfolding will be destroyed. Only the Russian people will drop them. And the Christian peoples of the Balkans will get stronger.

    http://sv-afon.orthodoxy.ru/svjatye/paisi_af/paisiy.htm
    1. Born in USSR
      Born in USSR 22 February 2012 07: 46 New
      +1
      Will 200 million Chinese move across the Euphrates River to Jerusalem? How much do you need to smoke and why would such a picture arise in the brain? Where is the Euphrates and where are the Chinese? What did they forget in Jerusalem? Moreover in such quantity? Are they locusts?
      1. grizzlir
        grizzlir 22 February 2012 07: 56 New
        -1
        Yes, yes, the Chinese will leak everywhere. In small groups of 200 thousand people laughing
      2. vikingost
        vikingost 20 January 2015 03: 08 New
        0
        v biblii napisano GOG I MAGOG
  16. CaptainBlack
    CaptainBlack 21 February 2012 06: 23 New
    -1
    “Anyone who wants to prevent the Russian leadership from deploying will be destroyed. Only the Russian people will throw them off. And the Christian peoples of the Balkans will get stronger.” It is clearly and clearly stated !!! Putin will deal with this! In just a week it will be done. At the same time with Chechnya, along the way, under the sly, so that the water does not muddy anymore, bully when such a movement begins on the world stage ...
  17. Klerk
    Klerk 21 February 2012 20: 40 New
    0
    Joint development of a gas field with Nicosia is certainly good! good But this game can get by (military conflict). The Germans will not "butt" with us about the gas field, because they have their own investments in Siberia, the Achimov natural gas field, which will be developed on a parity basis. Its reserves are estimated at more than 200 billion cubic meters. yes Gas production may begin in 2015