Military Review

What is wrong with the economy of the Russian Federation?

142
What is wrong with the economy of the Russian Federation?



The Eighth Exchange Forum already died down, and we again saw specialists determining the vector of economic development of our country for a long time: the head of the Central Bank E. Nabiullin, Finance Minister A. Siluanov, the permanent chairman of the board of Sberbank G. Gref and, of course, the former minister Finance A. Kudrin. Of course, it is always interesting to listen to the masters, but perhaps the first problem they voiced was the lack of investment in our country. For example, in January, the inflow of foreign investment amounted to as much as 34 million dollars, which by the standards of the economy of the Russian Federation is a very small amount.

But why? Why have we been declaring for a decade the attraction of foreign investments to be the alpha and omega of the development of the Russian economy, and the money hasn’t come to us or is it going?

In fact, from the point of view of economic theory, the absence of massive investments in the economy of the Russian Federation seems to be completely absurd. A simple example is that lending rates in the Russian Federation are much higher than in Europe or the USA, i.e. On the invested capital, Russian banks extract much more profit than their European counterparts. According to economic theory, foreign banks should simply be in line for the right to open their representative offices in the Russian Federation. They can secure super profits by “trading money” at Russian rates, or they can conquer the Russian market by offering much more favorable terms of cooperation to domestic producers. From the point of view of economics, the Russian Federation is simply doomed to a “mass invasion” of foreign capital, after which, over time, the terms of lending in Russia and Europe would gradually be equalized, because banks would fight for the clientele, gradually lowering the cost of credit, t. e. % rates, as long as they (as well as profits earned by banks) would not be compared with average European ones.

But for some reason this does not happen. Where does economic theory fail?

In order to understand this, it is necessary to understand how the economy of the Russian Federation works. First, let's see what it consists of. Below is the structure of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Russian Federation.

• Wholesale and retail trade - 17,2%.
• Manufacturing industry - 15,6%.
• Lease, government services and military security - 12,3%.
• Mining - 10,1%.
• Transport services and communications - 8,7%.
• Social Insurance - 6,6%.
• Construction services - 6,5%.
• Financial activities - 5,4%.
• Health and other social services - 4,2%.
• Agriculture and forestry, hunting - 4,0%.
• Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water - 3,4%.
• Education - 3%.
• Other community, social and personal services - 1,8%.
• Hotel and restaurant business - 1,0%.
• Fisheries - 0,2%.
TOTAL - 100%.

Recall what GDP is. This is the cost of the final product for a certain period of time, usually for a year. And what have the word "finite"? Let us explain with the simplest example. For example, a country's GDP consists of one stool with a market value of 3 ruble. A 3 person lives in the country. One made boards and sold them for a ruble, the second made nails and sold them for a ruble, and the third bought nails and boards made by them from the first two workers and made a stool for 3 rubles. So, GDP is the cost of the final product (stool), and not the sum of all products (ruble for boards, ruble for nails and 3 ruble for a stool - 5 rubles), because according to the results of labor activity, the state has only one stool, boards and nails are used for its production, and they are no more - despite the fact that their cost is taken into account in the market price of the stool.

Now look again at the structure of the Russian GDP. Contrary to the once-widespread assertion that in the Russian Federation, apart from a gas pipe, there is also an oil pipe, and there is nothing else, we are surprised to see that all mineral production, in which, besides oil and gas, is also ore, precious metals and other and other, is some 10,1% of the total volume of production. Hooray?

Let's wait to rejoice and look at the structure of revenues of the federal budget, or the state budget, as it is usually called.



And here we are surprised to find that the very 10,1%, which the mining industry provides, Russia's GDP (actually less, because the oil and gas sector is only a part of the mining industry) provides almost 44% of all budget revenues. Is it a lot or a little? Well, even offhand it is obvious that this is a lot, but we dig a little deeper.

Budget revenues from all other revenues, except for the oil and gas sector, are 7 694 billion rubles. Look at the costs. If you add up the social obligations of our state, those investments that it makes in the economy of the Russian Federation (and without which, obviously, you cannot collect the 7 694 billion mentioned above), education and medicine costs, we will get 8 049 billion rubles.

Thus, it is possible to ascertain a fact that is terrifying in its simplicity.

Even if world peace comes, and we will no longer need any armed forces ...

Even if all people suddenly heal according to conscience and the Law of God, and law enforcement agencies and courts will not be needed ...

Even if the creditors of the Russian Federation, external and internal, one and all, will forgive the Russian government for its debts ...

Even if we don’t spend a penny from the budget on media and culture, environmental protection and sports, we will transfer housing and public utilities to full self-sufficiency ...

And even if all state administration will be carried out completely free of charge, on a voluntary basis ...

... then in this case 90% of the economy of the Russian Federation, all our factories, transport, agriculture, trade, etc. etc. They will not be able to provide with money the level of education, pensions and health care that we currently have.

But, frankly, today's level of education is absolutely not amazing imagination. Free medicine is becoming more and more inaccessible, there are not enough doctors, it is often very difficult to get to specialized specialists, so you have to go to paid clinics, well, or sacrifice your health if there is no money for it. Pensions are on the verge of and beyond the subsistence minimum (real, not what is believed in our government). That is, in a good way, all of the above requires additional investments, but our economy (with the exception of the oil and gas sector) simply does not have the money for this.

Maybe we have scanty taxes? No, as a percentage of the cost of the product, our taxes are quite at the level - if you count all these VAT, personal income tax, tax on income, property, transport, payments to the pension fund, social insurance and other, etc., then the tax burden is quite comparable to Western countries. It is possible that they take a little more from their personal income than we do, but less from the revenues of companies, but the sum does not change from the permutation of the terms. Apparently, the problem is that the revenues, profits and wages of Russian companies are much more modest than in the West, hence the difference in the amount of taxes.

In other words, if the production and trade of almost any Western country provides it with tax revenues sufficient to cover the entire spectrum of state needs, including social security, defense (although they save a lot), and so on, then nothing like this happens in our country. And this suggests that our production, trade and services are in such a deep crisis that without an oil and gas backup they are completely unable to ensure the normal functioning of the state.

This was not always the case. The state budget of the Russian Empire did not have any super-profits from foreign trade, as the budget of the Russian Federation is doing now, and the USSR did not immediately “addict” to the oil and gas “needle”. It can be said that the problems that began in the economy of the USSR in the 60s of the last century gradually increased, but were not solved. As a result, already under Brezhnev, an economic crisis loomed on the horizon before the country. But it was here that high oil prices happened, and the USSR unexpectedly received a source of funding, which, in theory, could contribute to the improvement of its economy. Unfortunately, they did not manage to use this opportunity (although they tried), and high oil prices only delayed the crisis, and then the then leadership headed by M. Gorbachev began to look for a way out of changing the economic model of management.

The model was changed - the market economy replaced the planned economy. And now, and earlier it was argued that the market economy is much more efficient than the planned one. Our citizens have made huge sacrifices for the transition to market rails. Wild 90, indiscriminate lack of money and poverty, rampant crime, a monstrous demographic hole, because people often could not feed themselves, what kind of children are there ... The number of unborn is estimated at least in the millions, and how many people prematurely departed to another world?

But we paid the price, and here we are in a market economy, which seems to be much more effective than planned. But where is this effect? The late USSR could not meet its obligations without gas-oil props, because it lacked income from industry and commerce. 26 years have passed since the death of the USSR, but today's RF is just as incapable of meeting its obligations without high prices for oil and gas!

Thus, the first thing we have to admit is: despite the fact that more than a quarter of a century has passed since the collapse of the USSR, and that the “wild 90s” ended 17 years ago, we, the Russian Federation, have so far failed to create an effective economic model for our productive forces. The key problem of our economy is that it is fundamentally inefficient, and without awareness of this fact, we will never move forward.

As you know, the first step in a cure for alcohol addiction is the recognition of its presence. Until a man realizes that his problems are not in a stern boss, traitors-friends, or a cavalier wife, but in himself, in his craving for alcohol, he cannot recover. No wonder that people at meetings of anonymous alcoholics present themselves: "I am Bill, and I am an alcoholic!" Alas, our leading experts in the field of economics and finance do not want to "ripen to the root", as Kozma Prutkov testified. Instead of recognizing the existence of a problem (that the economic model they built is in fact inefficient), they are looking for an “evil boss” and a “fault-wife”: this time they are “found” in the form of a lack of foreign investment. That lack of investment is not the cause, but merely the result of our distress, they cannot recognize.

And yet - why did this happen? Why is our production less efficient than in many other countries? There are many reasons for this, and perhaps the first of them is that our industry (and trade) is in completely unequal conditions in comparison with the western one.

At some points it is objective. It is clear that the Russian plant in the Urals bears somewhat greater costs than a similar manufacturer in sunny Spain, where the concept of central heating is mostly unfamiliar. And it’s not so easy for a Russian farmer to compete with an Italian one who takes crops twice a year. But all this can be compensated - yes, just below the salary, slightly lower the standard of living ... but not at times!

But the availability of loans - is another matter. It is much more difficult for a Russian production worker to get a loan, and this loan will be three times more expensive than that of its western competitor. In other words, for the same price an “imported” entrepreneur will attract several times more funds! Investment loans are very widespread in the West, when an enterprise is credited for the acquisition of production capacity and returns a loan after many years, while such “long” loans are much cheaper than “short” ones. In the Russian Federation, in order to receive an investment loan, an enterprise needs to demonstrate such good financial performance that it is not at all clear why he needs a kind of loan. It, perhaps, the bank itself will credit, at the most reasonable price ...

As a result, the Russian manufacturer is severely limited in capabilities - his Western competitor is always able to mobilize a large amount of money for any project, to launch the newest production facilities much faster, and all this will cost him less than ours. That is why at one time the author of this article was taken aback from the tireless attempts of the Russian Federation to break into the WTO: how can we strive for equal competition if our industry and agriculture are in initially unequal conditions and there are not the slightest prospects for this to be corrected?

So, the domestic producer is desperately short of money, and those that are are very expensive. What to do? To this our pseudo-economists have a “brilliant” answer. You can not get money in Russian banks or they can not afford? No question - go borrow money in the West, we have a free country ... Formally, it really is - who prevents the average Russian holding from issuing a bunch of additional shares or bonds and selling them on the New York or Tokyo stock exchanges?



Nothing ... except for one thing.

As we see, the instability of the domestic economy obviously leads to the instability of the state budget, and our government cannot and will not tolerate this. But to create a sane economic model for the development of a country in which both the productive forces and the budget will acquire the necessary margin of safety, it does not work. This means that the government will either have to resign or come up with ways in which the sustainability of the budget will depend only minimally on the country's economy. It sounds absurd, but our government has such opportunities.

Here we live with a balanced budget, in which expenses are equal to revenues when the price of oil is about 70 dollars and suddenly - bang - oil falls by 30 percent, say, to 50 dollars. Of course, tax revenues that provide nearly half of the budget immediately subside "About the same 30%, and the money in the budget begins to be missed. But what happens if at this moment to take and bring down the ruble exchange rate to the dollar? Suppose a dollar was worth 30 rubles, but our Central Bank caught up a bit of a market panic, causing the exchange rate to rise to 40 rubles per dollar.

Of course, if it turned out that oil “slipped” to 50 dollars per barrel, it will cost these same 50 dollars, and we will sell for 50 dollars and not a cent more expensive. But if, with a dollar worth 30 rubles, the price of oil in rubles was 1500 rubles, then after the appreciation, it was already 2000 rubles, i.e. there is a “growth” in revenues on 33% ... The fact is that we sell oil for dollars, but we charge taxes in rubles, recalculating a dollar transaction into a ruble equivalent at the current exchange rate - respectively, our tax revenues from exported hydrocarbons will increase at once as much as 33% ...

And so it turns out that, dropping the cost of the ruble, the government increases tax and customs revenues to the budget in rubles. And the budget expenses remain the same as they were - all obligations for pensions, medicine and other things are calculated in rubles, and with a decrease in the exchange rate of the ruble, they no longer become.

Of course, free cheese is only in a mousetrap. By doing so, the state actually shifts the problems of the budget to its people. After all, we do not live in the Soviet Union, which tried to produce almost everything on its own. We live in the Russian Federation, and we all buzzed about integration into the global economy and how it is good. As a result, we have a huge dependence on foreign supplies - even at our own production facilities there are often imported machines that require imported components and consumables. A bunch of imported cars run along the roads, and they need imported spare parts, in the offices, imported computers, etc. Naturally, with the depreciation of the ruble, trading companies cannot keep the old prices for a long time - the stocks that were purchased at the “old” ruble exchange rate will be sold off, and then the prices must be raised ... As a result, prices are rising, and not only for goods we acquire abroad, but also to those that we produce ourselves ... only now we produce and deliver on imported equipment and transport. And this is how inflation begins. And the same pensioners, receiving the promised retirement benefits, see that now they can no longer buy them as much as they used to buy earlier.

But what is surprising is that the government will be able to turn itself to a high level of inflation. In order to understand this mechanism, it is necessary to understand the difference between nominal and real GDP.

Suppose a certain country produced exactly 2015 boxes of matches at the price of 100 rubles each in 1 year. Its GDP was 100 rubles. The following year, 2016, the country produced all the same 100 matchboxes, but because of inflation, they began to cost 1 rubles. 10 cop, i.e. inflation was 10%. Thus, the nominal GDP of this country amounted to 110 rubles. - that is how much 100 boxes of matches in 2016 prices cost. Can we be glad that the country's GDP has grown by 10%? Obviously not: real GDP remained exactly the same as it was in 2015, 100 rubles, because in 2016, the country produced exactly as many products as last year, i.e. 100 boxes.

In other words, real GDP is nominal GDP minus the effect of inflation. The problem is that if the country produced only matchboxes, it would be easy to track inflation just by counting the quantity of goods produced, but if a huge amount of this product is produced, then it will not be counted in pieces, only rubles, and there are already possible manipulations.

Imagine such a situation. In 2015, the country produced 100 boxes of matches on 1 rubles, respectively, GDP = 100 rubles, and in 2016, the country produced only 95 boxes, but on 1 rubles. 10 cop., And nominal GDP amounted to 104,5 rubles. What to do? In fact, real GDP in 2016 g of the total 95 rubles. and decreased by 5% compared to last year, but what if ...

... what if you declare real GDP in 100 rubles. and inflation in 4,5%? Grace. First, we can say that, “despite the difficult economic situation, the economy has reached the bottom and is no longer declining,” and confidently talk about future growth (while production is falling), secondly, the level of indexation of pensions and public sector wages is no longer 10%, but only 4,5%. And if, nevertheless, a decision on indexation is made, the pension will still not restore its purchasing power.

The author does not have reliable information that the government uses this tool. But tell me, dear readers of "VO", when you enter stores, do you think that official data on the level of inflation ... somehow does not correspond to the realities of life?

Well, now, having figured out the impact on the budget of artificially lowering the exchange rate of the ruble and inflation, we will put ourselves in the place of a manufacturing enterprise, which is invited to look for money to develop business abroad.

Most of our enterprises operate mainly on the domestic market, because, having no equal conditions with foreign companies and not having their capabilities, it is difficult for them to compete with products of foreign manufacturers in foreign markets. Therefore, the bulk of the revenue of our companies is ruble. Well, let's say, I placed such a plant somewhere in New York, millions of dollars for 10 dollars, bought 300 million rubles for them (at 30 rubles per dollar) and bought the latest equipment from another Russian factory, thereby stimulating domestic manufacturer. Beauty! The plant operates, sells products, and in order to return foreign debt, it will subsequently need to collect 300 million rubles.

And then the price of oil suddenly fell, the Central Bank "raised the price", and the dollar now costs 40 rubles. And our plant suddenly discovers with surprise that instead of 300 million. Rub. He already owes 400 million rubles! His foreign currency debt has not increased, it still remains 10 million dollars, but in order to return it, the company will need 400 million rubles already. So, quite unexpectedly and from scratch, the plant's debt grew by 33%!

The problem is that the benefit that the Russian budget acquires as a result of the devaluation of the ruble boomerang at companies with dollar debts - they lose money in roughly the same proportion as the budget acquires them. As a result, any dollar loans turn into a real “Russian roulette” for enterprises operating on the domestic Russian market, because if a significant devaluation of the ruble occurs during the period of their operation, then the enterprise can easily be brought to bankruptcy with an unexpectedly increased debt.

Well, now let's return to the question: why foreign investments “do not go” to the Russian Federation?

First of all, you need to realize that, with very few exceptions, no foreign investor will go to us to create a transnational corporation, which will sell the bulk of its products for export, i.e. outside of the Russian Federation. Many foreign investors agree to buy such a corporation, if we have one, but they will not create it with us - why? They will better create such production in their own country. It is quite another thing to invest in Russian production for the development of the domestic market of the Russian Federation, so they are, in principle, ready for this. But ... this means that a foreign investor "comes on the same rake" as the plant, attracting foreign investment from the example described above!

We will put ourselves in the place of an investor who reasons to give or not to give our plant 10 million dollars from the example above. The investor is well aware of the complexity of the situation in which the plant may end up after the devaluation of the ruble - after all, its debt to the investor will increase (in our example) with 300 million rubles. to 400 mln. rub. The investor realizes that this happens, and the risk of default on the bonds he purchased will increase dramatically. Why does a foreigner need this risk? They invest for profit, and for the sake of risk they engage in extreme sports ...

The problem is that the instability of the ruble exchange rate, which is used as a "magic wand" to patch budget holes, is the strongest "scarecrow" for any potential investor. We ourselves push investment away from ourselves, and then we are surprised at something else.

Naturally, no privatization will help anything in this situation. We don’t have to wait for foreign investments, or they will buy out high-yielding oil and gas assets, the sale of which, generally, with the rarest exception, should be considered as a state crime. As for the internal reserves ... in fact, they do not exist in nature.

Of course, Forbes is full of faces of our billionaire compatriots, but you need to understand - very often, if a person has a fortune of 20 billion dollars, this does not mean that he has somewhere in the American bank 20 billion dollars. This means that he is the owner of heaps of “factories, newspapers, steamboats”, which are estimated at 20 billion dollars (and are often estimated by appraisers of our oligarch). But in fact, these plants often do not bring much profit, but they are heavily credited and lack working capital. And it is quite possible that in the state of 20 billion dollars, the oligarch is unable to earn 20 million dollars for investments without resorting to loans. But the loans should be given back, and as a result, a team of “effective managers” immediately sent to the newly privatized enterprise that fell into its ownership, starting as if it were a vacuum cleaner to draw money in order to “beat off” the funds invested in the acquisition ... with clear consequences for enterprises. Credits are immediately attached to it, which are then withdrawn, there is still not enough money in circulation, and in the end the question comes down not to development, but to survival. How to survive? Here comes the downsizing, etc. etc. It goes without saying that no increase in efficiency can be expected from such privatization.

To the great regret of the author of this article, he has to state: it’s not even bad that the economic model of the Russian Federation is not effective. The really bad thing is that the government of our country has long learned to exist and maintain stability in the conditions of a permanent economic crisis, in which the economy of the Russian Federation has been staying for 26 for years. And therefore our government has no reason to change anything - the current situation quite suits him.

Of course, once there should have been a counterbalance to the official economic doctrine, and something like this gradually appears, and no longer at the level of “kitchen talk”: a person like Sergei Yuryevich Glazyev, for example, points to the inadmissibility of the current course. -so is an adviser to the president of the Russian Federation. But one can hardly expect that his ideas will be perceived as a guide to action in the coming years - one, unfortunately, is not a warrior in the field, but who else among the authorities shares his views? ..
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  1. Titsen
    Titsen 2 May 2017 06: 30 New
    +7
    Pro-Western Economists!
    1. Butters
      Butters 2 May 2017 06: 36 New
      +7
      The economy, as it were, was also invented in the West. It would be strange to not look back to the West.
      1. Astart
        Astart 2 May 2017 06: 51 New
        +9
        What does it mean "invented the Economy" When the two Cro-Magnons exchanged their booty, and partly took it to the priest, this is Economics. Do you mean Political Economy as a science? well, since the days of D. Ricardo and A. Smith a lot of water has flowed
        1. Butters
          Butters 2 May 2017 06: 55 New
          +2
          Quote: Astarte
          since the days of D. Ricardo and A. Smith a lot of water has flowed

          Do you think that the fundamental principles of the economy have changed since then?
          Since the discovery of Newton's laws, too, "a lot of water has flowed," but the laws have remained.
          1. Astart
            Astart 2 May 2017 07: 10 New
            +4
            2 + 2 = 4 and this will not change (I hope) What I mean is that it is incorrect to call the Economy a “European invention”
            1. Victor N
              Victor N 2 May 2017 08: 31 New
              +2
              In reality, everything is much more complicated.
              But in any case, each product should have more added value - this means that you need to work more. Earn, not receive. At each specific workplace. Only after that get permission to scold the Government.
              How to add value: do not take out round timber (imagine how much it feeds on illegal harvesting and shipment of round timber); Do not export crude oil; do not sell metal in ingots and hire, and so on.
              1. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
                2 May 2017 21: 47 New
                11
                Quote: Victor N
                How to add value: do not take out round timber (imagine how much it feeds on illegal harvesting and shipment of round timber)

                Well yes. Only when you contact the country purchasing the round timber with an offer to purchase a board at the most reasonable price will you find out that there are such customs duties on these boards that even if you slave the slaves to sawmills and you will steal fuel for the work of the equipment, all the same, your product will not be competitive. And if you go to complain to the WTO, then they will tell you that this country has obtained such preferences for itself when joining the WTO. And why? Yes, because the government of this country is worried about its production and prefers to buy exclusively raw materials.
                1. IS-80_RVGK2
                  IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 22: 46 New
                  +3
                  Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk
                  Well yes. Only when you contact the country purchasing the round timber with an offer to purchase a board at the most reasonable price will you find out that there are such customs duties on these boards that even if you slave the slaves to sawmills and you will steal fuel for the work of the equipment, all the same, your product will not be competitive. And if you go to complain to the WTO, then they will tell you that this country has obtained such preferences for itself when joining the WTO. And why? Yes, because the government of this country is worried about its production and prefers to buy exclusively raw materials.

                  Well, everything is a little more interesting there, as I understand it. In principle, they can give you the opportunity to produce lumber, if it becomes profitable to anyone who can sell it. smile And as for market methods, so here the Jewish comrades somehow complained about the bad USA that they threw them from the European market with some product into the most outrageous non-market method. laughing But yes, the struggle there for the markets is serious. And in their eyes we looked like complete boobies when we merged the socialist camp markets and even our own for no one's dog.
                  1. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
                    2 May 2017 23: 21 New
                    +5
                    Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
                    Well, everything is a little more interesting there, as I understand it.

                    Of course. I took the simplest and most primitive option. But in general - there is no market there, Western guys defend their sales markets like this .... if they defended themselves from Hitler with the same frenzy and ingenuity, Germany would capitulate in 1939 :))
                  2. Dzafdet
                    Dzafdet 3 May 2017 19: 37 New
                    0
                    not we merged, but a group of comrades from the Communist Party. having pocketed ourselves .. wassat
                    1. Pancer
                      Pancer 3 May 2017 21: 41 New
                      +2
                      Quote: Dzafdet
                      not we merged, but a group of comrade

                      This group of dubious comrades, only dragged a card-party card. And the essence of his adaption is a flip-flop for the time being. She hid it for some time, so it’s worthless to throw accusations indiscriminately. Now it’s not fashionable to recall how some people voted against the kingdom ... ate liberalism?
                2. fif21
                  fif21 4 May 2017 22: 41 New
                  0
                  Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk
                  the government of this country is worried about its production and prefers to buy exclusively raw materials.
                  Minimum is a joint venture in the importing country, maximum own. By the way, Lukoil is a good example, gas stations throughout Europe wassat Still to buy oil refineries in Europe and build an organic synthesis hi
                3. Ermak
                  Ermak 5 May 2017 18: 03 New
                  0
                  Andrei from Chelyabinsk
                  • Wholesale and retail trade - 17,2%.
                  • Manufacturing industry - 15,6%.
                  • Lease, government services and military security - 12,3%.
                  • Mining - 10,1%.
                  • Transport services and communications - 8,7%.
                  • Social Insurance - 6,6%.
                  • Construction services - 6,5%.
                  • Financial activities - 5,4%.
                  • Health and other social services - 4,2%.
                  • Agriculture and forestry, hunting - 4,0%.
                  • Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water - 3,4%.
                  • Education - 3%.
                  • Other community, social and personal services - 1,8%.
                  • Hotel and restaurant business - 1,0%.
                  • Fisheries - 0,2%.

                  On this list, manufacturing is the most slippery moment. Where, for example, mechanical engineering, where the military-industrial complex and so on? All this is a list of raw materials appendage. Unpleasant statistics.
                  What are we going to comrades?
                  1. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
                    5 May 2017 18: 07 New
                    +1
                    Quote: Ermak
                    On this list, manufacturing is the most slippery moment. Where, for example, mechanical engineering, where the military-industrial complex and so on?

                    In the manufacturing industry. That is, industry in this case is divided into 2 categories - the one that extracts minerals and the one that does something from these minerals.
                    1. Ermak
                      Ermak 5 May 2017 18: 30 New
                      0
                      Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk
                      Quote: Ermak
                      On this list, manufacturing is the most slippery moment. Where, for example, mechanical engineering, where the military-industrial complex and so on?

                      In the manufacturing industry. That is, industry in this case is divided into 2 categories - the one that extracts minerals and the one that does something from these minerals.

                      This is an unpleasant moment ..... there may be anything, even recycling, but there may not be a real sector at all. As for the article, I support you. It is important to develop, for example, machine tools or other technologies, but they need a need in the form of finished products, but apparently there are no such needs in the right amount. All this is not only jobs, this is the future of our country. But flanges and transitions in large numbers .... oil pump from us perfectly. Minerals are raw materials and not the fact that they will not make pigs, which will also be raw materials. This is also a processing industry.
            2. sds87
              sds87 2 May 2017 09: 52 New
              0
              Quote: Astarte
              2 + 2 = 4 and this will not change (hopefully)

              I've added the numbers from the article about the gross product and in the total I received not 100%, but 82,8%
              Where did the author go 17,2%?
              1. IS-80_RVGK2
                IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 10: 31 New
                +4
                Quote: sds87
                Where did the author go 17,2%?

                Stolen, as always. laughing
                1. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
                  2 May 2017 11: 53 New
                  10
                  Guilty, 17.2% is trade, missed
          2. Alikos
            Alikos 2 May 2017 10: 51 New
            0
            Quote: Butters
            Quote: Astarte
            since the days of D. Ricardo and A. Smith a lot of water has flowed

            Do you think that the fundamental principles of the economy have changed since then?
            Since the discovery of Newton's laws, too, "a lot of water has flowed," but the laws have remained.

            There are a lot of Bukaff, but there is no economy, there are petrodollars
      2. Finches
        Finches 2 May 2017 08: 49 New
        10
        If I’m not mistaken, the term "economy" was introduced by the ancient Greek leader Xenophon, but as a science, then yes, the beginning can be counted from Adam Smith ... However, this is not the point! As for the article and the personalities, in Russia two points of view of economic development have always fought: to be simplified to the form, then the model of a socialist orientation and the market-Western model! And here we see bright representatives: Kudrin, a pronounced Westerner and Glazyev, a pronounced Narodnik!
        1. Basarev
          Basarev 2 May 2017 09: 59 New
          +1
          It is not necessary to expose the market-western model as bloodsuckers of Russia - its supporters just stand for cheap credit and the availability of money to the population and business. In fact, there are two models: market-western and oligarchic-post-Soviet.
          1. Finches
            Finches 2 May 2017 10: 11 New
            +5
            Bloodsuckers, bloodsuckers ... But the oligarchic-post-Soviet is a transitional stage precisely to the market-Western model, characterized by the accumulation of initial capital through the outright robbery of the country ... hi
            1. Basarev
              Basarev 2 May 2017 11: 33 New
              +8
              However, you are wrong. 26 years to accumulate capital - is not it too much? Germany has recovered in 15 years, and this after the defeat in the World War II, territorial division and under occupation. Without any initial capital, she jumped like that. This is the absolute market-western model. And our oligarchic-post-Soviet is completely different, because there is a different goal designation: the western model has the main goal - enrichment of all citizens of their country by encouraging their entrepreneurial activity. The goal of the post-Soviet model is the impoverishment of the citizens of their country through the suppression of entrepreneurship for the benefit of the monopolies that have passed from state to private hands.
              1. Alf
                Alf 2 May 2017 21: 51 New
                +4
                Quote: Basarev
                Germany has recovered in 15 years, and this after the defeat in the World War II, territorial division and under occupation. Without any initial capital, she jumped like that.

                Did she just pick it up and jump? In the Federal Republic of Germany, immediately after the war, loans from the USA poured in, and according to very many information, though partially, the so-called "Reich Gold" was poured into the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany. Moreover, the arms of West Germany were supplied free of charge as part of the assistance, and the USSR was forced to hold a large army. Yes, and the development of nuclear weapons in the USSR consumed enormous amounts of money, while ZG did not spend any pfennig on nuclear weapons because of its absence.
            2. alicante11
              alicante11 2 May 2017 15: 17 New
              +3
              Bloodsuckers, bloodsuckers ... But the oligarchic-post-Soviet is a transitional stage precisely to the market-Western model, characterized by the accumulation of initial capital through the outright robbery of the country ... hi


              This period we have already run in the “zero”. Now it is normal monopoly capitalism. Those. we galloped right into the dead end following our "senior partners" in the West. Almost according to Stalin, just the opposite.
    2. NEXUS
      NEXUS 2 May 2017 08: 53 New
      10
      Quote: Titsen
      Pro-Western Economists!

      The title question is a little weird ...
      What is wrong in the Russian economy? Two things ... the first: corruption, universal and total. And the second, this is a pro-Western development course, the basis of which is petrodollar.
    3. Vend
      Vend 2 May 2017 09: 15 New
      +2
      What is wrong with the economy of the Russian Federation?
      Not so depicted in the photo, but there are still his comrades.
    4. Pravodel
      Pravodel 2 May 2017 09: 19 New
      +7
      The problem of Russia is the liberals who are in power and in power.
      Absolutely true thought: Russia does not have enough capital. But Russia has twice solved this problem in the past: for the first time at the turn of the century until the year 14, which ensured the rise in GDP, calculated in double digits; the second time under Stalin in the 30s of the last century and after the war, when it ensured, an unprecedented rise in productive forces, which made it possible to withstand and win the war, and to restore the country's economy after the war.
      A true and unprecedented rise in Russia can begin only when we, the people of us, will sweep away all liberals from the government and call in the government of nationally oriented patriots, for whom the good of Russia, the people of Russia, are not just beautiful words, but a goal that can be ensured by changing the economic policy of Russia: unbinding the Russian economy from the stranglehold of international bloodsuckers: the IMF, WTO, etc., stopping or reducing speculation in Russian assets, searching for and consolidating domestic resources aimed not at plundering and eating up the budget, but at construction and creation of the industrial potential of Russia, the revival of the economic power of Russia. A necessary condition for this is the extermination of liberals in the government.
      1. Victor N
        Victor N 2 May 2017 10: 44 New
        0
        In the 30s, the belts were tightened so that the people could not gasp. Are you ready now? No!!! They shout in advance - pensions, salaries, health care ........ There are already strict rationals in the government: pension reform, tax reform - who is preparing it? Investments from what to make? And who should do it: the government or the owners. Do not forget that the economic crisis in the USSR was not organized by liberals, but by a completely Communist government. Have you read a lot about mistakes of that time? Here they hide it carefully, their nose is turned back from the proceedings. Fools and fools will be simpletons.
      2. vvnab
        vvnab 2 May 2017 11: 26 New
        +4
        The growth of GDP at the turn of the century was caused by the scientific and technological revolution and is not the merit of the then government. Yes, there has been significant growth, but everything is relative. The growth of GDP in the USA, Great Britain, Germany, France at that time significantly outperformed the Russian one! That is, in fact, the lag from developed countries increased! Here we have an example of typical manipulation.
        I don’t even speak about predatory loans of that time ...
        Google on this topic. Learn a lot of new things.
      3. Deck
        Deck 2 May 2017 11: 34 New
        0
        Here recently at https://topwar.ru/114310-unizhayuschie-koefficien
        ty.html there was such a cackle about military pensions that "a government of nationally-oriented patriots, for whom the good of Russia and the people of Russia are not just nice words" with ideas "like Stalin's", with a standard of living like 30-40 years old in a second sow.
      4. De laert
        De laert 3 May 2017 13: 10 New
        +3
        to do-it-yourselfer
        Some kind of utopia. When did our people call someone? If only during the veche in ancient Russia (and then I think there also quite a different lobby worked for itself). Representatives of any elites always come to power, since the organization of such processes is very expensive. It is necessary to collect the dissatisfied, to explain to them who is the one who will solve their problems. Organize camps, campaigns, food, etc ..... do you think people do it themselves? Therefore, I think that some improvement in the life of the common people, if possible, is simply a side effect of the activities of the ruling elite, as long as they need it.
        But then again, the greater the well-being of the people, the greater the opportunity for self-education, enlightenment, etc., which the authorities don’t need (look at Gref’s scandalous speech at a meeting of Sberbank, he plainly says that ordinary people cannot to give the opportunity to “grow smart”, since it’s difficult to control and manipulate smarts). Therefore, to think that someone will begin to improve the standard of living of the people .... well, I don’t know ... here they have improved, say, the level of medical services, therefore life expectancy has increased, and this is the payment of pensions .... they think they need it ?
    5. cost
      cost 3 May 2017 00: 51 New
      +1
      Titsen: Pro-Western Economists!

      Rather pro-Western orientation
  2. populist
    populist 2 May 2017 06: 49 New
    12
    The eighth Exchange Forum has already died down, and we again saw specialists who for a long time determined the vector of economic development of our country

    But the main specialist (guarantor) "who has been defining the vector for a long time" was not at this forum. crying Wherever he is not lurking, but here he is shy love economic miracles of their subordinates. stop
    1. Victor N
      Victor N 2 May 2017 08: 35 New
      0
      A "guarantor" cannot be a specialist in everything. And leading economists cannot agree on actions. Can not! Complicated! Those who are on the TV do not understand this.
  3. Astart
    Astart 2 May 2017 06: 56 New
    +8
    The article is interesting. But here does not leave a feeling, the partisan detachment led
    "E. Nabiullina, Minister of Finance A. Siluanov, Permanent Chairman of the Board of Sberbank G. Gref and, of course, former Minister of Finance A. Kudrin."
    in the rear of the Russian economy
  4. Kostya Andreev
    Kostya Andreev 2 May 2017 07: 02 New
    +2

    The problem in the economy is the large expenses of this state on the economy! Our state is the largest employer! And the author (in my opinion) offers to increase them even more!
  5. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 2 May 2017 07: 09 New
    +2
    To understand the Russian economy of today and its tugs (the names are given in the article), you must first drink a couple of glasses of vodka, and then disassemble this economy by bones in a circle of friends. But the conclusion will still be the same - it’s not good (another word is appropriate here) we live citizens.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 2 May 2017 07: 41 New
      10
      Quote: rotmistr60
      you must first drink a couple of glasses of vodka, and then disassemble this economy by bones in a circle of friends

      Now I understand why the Soviet economy collapsed. Get drunk
      1. IS-80_RVGK2
        IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 09: 24 New
        16
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Now I understand why the Soviet economy collapsed. Get drunk

        The storyteller tell us about the powerful economy of the Republic of Ingushetia, which was a shmog.
      2. My address
        My address 2 May 2017 10: 50 New
        11
        Alexander!
        Especially for you on the topic of economics. As you know, since 1861, the economy of the Russian Empire has grown at a faster pace compared to the growth of the Naglosacs and the Storage with Alemanias. It seems necessary to sing praises to emperors. True, there is still the MA-A-LITTLE hitch. And this "LITTLE" in that gross income grew at an incomparably slower pace from this indicator in the above Nglostran. Simply put, the economy of imperial Russia was pumped up with insolent investments, the Russian economy was growing, and profits were being taken out! Nothing like the present tense? When are billions of 400 dollars being kept from the Brazen and waiting for investment and privatization from the Brazen?
        I don’t cite specific numbers and links, I don’t want to search for a long time. I read or heard about it for a long time.
        A great author hi . And the proposal to find and publish the numbers for 1861 - 1917.
        And now the joke on this topic:
        - Seryoga, when will the long-promised growth of our economy begin?
        - Vityok, it will be when a barrel of oil passes for 100 $. Only in this case they do not have time to steal everything and the difference goes to the development of Russia.
    2. Victor N
      Victor N 2 May 2017 08: 42 New
      +5
      Here! But we live! In these conditions. The Italians evaluate the natural conditions in Moscow as Muscovites do Taimyr. With this in mind, your own standard of living can not be categorically compared with the standard of living of Italians.
      And now here, in VO, such comparisons are being made.
      Wrong it guys!
  6. demiurg
    demiurg 2 May 2017 07: 14 New
    +8
    The costs in Russia are greater than in India or China. Yes, there is better transport, climate, workers are cheaper. But to consider that the main trouble in the absence of investments, or at least loans, is too much. The state has 500 billion in various funds that can be invested anywhere in national projects. Or create a bank for interest-free lending to small / medium-sized non-business, avotfig, production. For loans / investments, take Libor + 1-2%, and it will be profitable for the state. Moreover, the national project could be the construction of a factory purchased from Siemens or Samsung for the production of microcircuits (and under their control), a factory of modern engines or industrial electronics. If the state can take on (tax deductions) additional costs from the climate and higher transport costs plus additional preferences for export sales, I don’t think that large producers will want to come here.
    1. krass
      krass 2 May 2017 07: 37 New
      +6
      Quote: demiurg
      But to consider that the main trouble in the absence of investments, or at least loans, is too much.

      Can you create something without money?
      Although you are right - first you need to invest where - so that there is minimal risk and digestible profit
      Quote: demiurg
      . The state has 500 billion in various funds that can be invested anywhere in national projects.

      anywhere --- is this where?
      Quote: demiurg
      Or create a bank for interest-free lending to small / medium-sized non-businesses, auto finance, production

      money is like in the law of conservation of energy - if you received an interest-free loan, then at least someone should pay the leveling of inflation. If the state bank - then of course the budget is those with taxes, i.e. from your money.
      Quote: demiurg
      Moreover, the national project could be the construction of a factory purchased from Siemens or Samsung for the production of microcircuits (and under their own control), a factory of modern engines or industrial electronics

      Under whose control?
      Quote: demiurg
      additional costs from the climate and higher transportation costs

      And what does this have to do with it?
      What do you blame the climate all the time? You probably think that heating is much more expensive than cooling (conditioning).
      1. demiurg
        demiurg 2 May 2017 08: 12 New
        +4
        1.
        2. There are interests of the state. He wants to sell plastic and gasoline instead of oil? We are building chemical plants and refineries. We buy from the same BASF, and the plant is managed by TNCs. The state remains taxes, plus employment. This is not a required example; it is an option.
        3. Read carefully, I mentioned about the election + 1-2% more profit when buying the same treasury bonds the state will not receive.
        4. See item 2
        5. Interestingly, but from the heat heaps the earth? Do you need to bury pipes at a temperature of 3 meters at least? Foundations below the freezing depth? Which is easier, cool from +40 degrees to +25 or warm from -30 to +25? What is analogous to snow in the tropics?
        And this, with air conditioning in the tropics, not all buildings and even more so production.
        Did you work with small metal parts at -30 in the wind? And my fingers are frostbitten, now I can’t hold anything metallic for even minus 10 for a long time, they start to hurt. But in the heat, even plus 35, I work perfectly. I just sweat and drink a lot of water.
        1. krass
          krass 2 May 2017 08: 26 New
          0
          Quote: demiurg
          Read carefully, I mentioned about the election + 1-2% more profit when buying the same treasury bonds the state will not receive.

          , You said
          Quote: demiurg
          Or create a bank for interest-free lending to small / medium-sized non-businesses, auto finance, production

          Libor + inflation - how much will it give?

          Quote: demiurg
          Interestingly, but from the heat heaps the earth? Do you need to bury pipes at a temperature of 3 meters at least? Foundations below the freezing depth? Which is easier, cool from +40 degrees to +25 or warm from -30 to +25? What is analogous to snow in the tropics?

          in such enterprises (high-tech) —that all this dregs — such as the foundation and pipes — are such pennies that should not be taken into account, especially since it makes it difficult to build in the southern regions of Russia
          Quote: demiurg
          And this, with air conditioning in the tropics, not all buildings and even more so production.

          Come on you. Don't tell me
          Quote: demiurg
          Did you work with small metal parts at -30 in the wind?

          Have worked.
          By the way, are you going to assemble chips at -30, in the wind?
          Quote: demiurg
          But in the heat, even plus 35, I work perfectly.

          Have you worked at +35 in the shade? And in the sun + 45-50.
          Worked great? I don’t believe it.
          add that it is at least 7-8 months a year.
          1. IS-80_RVGK2
            IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 09: 02 New
            +4
            Quote: demiurg
            Did you work with small metal parts at -30 in the wind?

            Quote: krass
            Have you worked at +35 in the shade? And in the sun + 45-50.

            Work blacks, the sun is still high. And when the sun goes down you will work in the moonlight. laughing
          2. demiurg
            demiurg 2 May 2017 09: 38 New
            +3
            1.
            2. Libor is, as it were, inflation of the currency.
            3. Yeah, and cleaning the penny snow and removing it from the territory is generally worthless. Yes, and steelmaking and energy-intensive also dragging south? Ore and energy, how are we going to deliver it and how much will it be, where will we find the personnel?
            4. All India is air-conditioned. There is no electricity in the shack, but there is air conditioning. lol
            5. But with ultrapure production, where the air should all change every 10-15 minutes, generally an ambush.
            6. If +35 would be more dangerous than -15 at least, then 90% of the world's population would live in Siberia and Canada, and not in the tropics. It’s hard to work in the heat, but you can. You can’t work in the cold for a long time, especially if you are busy with something that does not require much effort.
      2. IS-80_RVGK2
        IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 09: 17 New
        +3
        Quote: krass
        What do you blame the climate all the time? You probably think that heating is much more expensive than cooling (conditioning).

        And you want to say that the climate does not need to be taken into account? And yes, do you have any kind of research on hand so as to immediately equalize the costs of the influence of positive temperatures with the costs of the influence of minus?
      3. Suhov
        Suhov 2 May 2017 15: 40 New
        +4
        Quote: krass
        money is like in the law of conservation of energy - if you received an interest-free loan, then at least leveling inflation someone has to pay. If the state bank - then of course the budget is those with taxes, i.e. from your money.

        If the loan is spent on speculation, like bought for cheap and sold for expensive - then Yes,
        but if you build industrial production (investment in production) on the loan received, then No!
        The article is about investments in industrial capital,
        and not about "lending" to speculative capital.
        The difference is that speculators need short money and the interest on the loan can be quite high,
        For production, and this is long money, the value of the loan is a critical thing and, in principle, cannot exceed the rate of profit of an industrial enterprise.
        In other words, in our country conditions have been created for speculators, but not for production workers.
        It drives banking capital, not industrial capital.
        The reason is the high cost of the loan.
    2. Victor N
      Victor N 2 May 2017 08: 57 New
      +6
      Fundamental mistake: to believe that the economy is oversaturated with smart specialists !!!
      In the late 90s - early 00s, authorities at various levels massively collected investment offers from all possible business entities - they completed, published, offered investors all kinds of things. In the bustle of analysis completely neglected.
      The subsequent calm analysis revealed the monstrous absurdity of the overwhelming majority of sentences! Full bullshit !!! But on smart paper, to attract suckers. It was impossible to imagine such nonsense! And here - massively!
      Here investors and rushed. From here.
  7. Same lech
    Same lech 2 May 2017 07: 15 New
    11
    Thanks to ANDREY from CHELYABINSK for the article ... very intelligibly explained complex things in simple language. hi
  8. midshipman
    midshipman 2 May 2017 07: 25 New
    15
    It's amazing that this article was prepared by Andrey from Chelyabinsk. Thank you, Andrey. It should be prepared and published by the Institute of Chemical Economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ak Ivanter V.V., my esteemed long-standing comrade). Everything was correctly stated by Andrey. Andrew, in Chelyabinsk, I was under the command of Flight. 16 thousand specialists worked, at present 1200 and there is no work. Our products are needed in the Russian Federation and abroad. I declare this, because I know the needs of countries for aviation products. Andrei did not reveal the essence of the innovation economy. Our enterprises, unlike foreign ones, have zero value of intangible assets. Patents are worth nothing in the Russian Federation, but abroad this is wealth. In the USSR, patents were included in the carrying amount of the enterprise. But Kudrink, Gref and the like do not need it. They have another vicious theory for the country that the Government supports. I have the honor.
    1. krass
      krass 2 May 2017 07: 29 New
      +2
      Quote: midshipman
      Patents are worth nothing in the Russian Federation, but abroad this is wealth. In the USSR, patents were included in the carrying amount of the enterprise. And Kudrink, Gref and the like it is not necessary

      Sorry, the question is, why is it of such fundamental importance that in your opinion this is practically the main cause of the problems of the Russian economy?
      Quote: midshipman
      They have another vicious theory for the country, which is supported by Provincial

      ?????
    2. Victor N
      Victor N 2 May 2017 09: 01 New
      0
      If everything is so beautiful, the enterprise should flourish without curls and grefs.
      And if it is bent, you are mistaken somewhere, it is you.
    3. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
      2 May 2017 19: 00 New
      +3
      Quote: midshipman
      It's amazing that this article was prepared by Andrey from Chelyabinsk. Thank you, Andrey.

      Not at all, glad that our views are similar
  9. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 2 May 2017 07: 26 New
    +7
    Foreign investment is a "quiet" way to enslave the country ... Where will foreign investors take profits? That's the same.
    And about Glazyev - Glazyev is, IMHO, the reincarnation of Gaidar! Those who don’t remember the horror, with inflation of one thousand percent and a “dollarized” economy through and through - we are asking for mercy.
    1. krass
      krass 2 May 2017 07: 31 New
      +4
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      Foreign investment is a "quiet" way to enslave the country ... Where will foreign investors take profits? That's the same

      So where?
      China has flourished on investment and has in many ways already overtaken the Russian Federation.
      Is China an example for you?
      South Korea, Japan (at one time), etc. etc. - hundreds of examples.
      1. IS-80_RVGK2
        IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 09: 29 New
        +3
        Quote: krass
        Is China an example for you?

        To us, following the example of China, to return the leading role of the Communist Party as the successor to the CPSU and proclaim the construction of communism again? smile
    2. Victor N
      Victor N 2 May 2017 09: 14 New
      0
      The bold but not entirely responsible judgment of a layman.
      We need to figure out: where are the sheep, where are the wolves, and where are the draft horses.
      Who to shoot at ?!
  10. korvin1976
    korvin1976 2 May 2017 07: 29 New
    +5
    I'm certainly not an economist, but my personal opinion is an article from the category: We started for health, finished for peace.
    At the time, about six months ago, I was also interested in the topic of GDP and other related indicators, and made for myself "some squeeze." So in this “squeeze” a slightly different idea of ​​the economy and economic indicators, in my opinion more realistically reflects the picture of the economy. (All data is taken from open sources, from the same Wikipedia and is easily verified)
    I concluded for myself that the economies of the “developed” countries are based on the principle of “malicious creditors,” with a lack of funds, he takes a new loan, then a new one, then a new one, on the basis of what you will not have to repay. This is about what Ukraine is now leading to, and at one time Russia was failing.
    1. would
      would 2 May 2017 08: 42 New
      +5
      then a new one, based on what you don’t have to give.


      Immediately visible very poorly interested in the topic. All of those same "malicious creditors" in the person of, for example, the United States are not just steadily paying creditors, but are credited directly based on what they have to give. That is why American debt obligations are so eagerly invested, including in the Russian Federation. Tales of the imminent collapse of the United States and the dollar tales, and investments on schedule.

      The size of the debt does not decrease, but even increases due to the fact that such countries constantly take new loans and constantly give them back. We paid with one, took another, if simplified. And this system will work as long as such a country can pay the due to external lenders. While she pays, she will be able to take new loans. This is actually one of the bubbles in the global economy.

      With domestic loans, the situation is more complicated, the system is more complicated there, but in short the government is even easier with them. And in fact, this is precisely what Russia is not even being led to right now, but it itself has failed, they have already begun selling federal loan bonds to the population.
      1. korvin1976
        korvin1976 2 May 2017 11: 20 New
        +3
        Quote: rait
        The size of the debt does not decrease, but even increases due to the fact that such countries constantly take new loans and constantly give them back. We paid with one, took another, if simplified. And this system will work as long as such a country can pay the due to external lenders. While she pays, she will be able to take new loans. This is actually one of the bubbles in the global economy.

        The fact of the matter is that it is a system of “malicious creditors”, to take out a loan to repay the previous one, or to repay interest on a previous loan. I agree that on the one hand everything seems to be tip-top, the credit history is normal, you can freely take new loans. What is the result? I understand that, in essence, the same OSHs occupy themselves in essence, at a minimum percentage, but this does not change the essence. Osh take loans, as they don’t plan to give them back, at least as long as they feel the strength. And it has been proved more than once, with the same Chinese (fake) gold, with the same German gold and so on.
        Regarding domestic loans (government loan bonds). The state takes from its citizens, thereby pursuing many goals aimed at maintaining the sovereignty of the state
        1. Cube123
          Cube123 2 May 2017 16: 02 New
          +3
          Your mistake like not an economist, is that you consider money to be the ultimate value. In fact, money is not a goal, but only a means. Otherwise, they could be printed an unlimited number, and everyone would be happy, only not for long. The meaning of monetary relations in the OPTIMIZATION of human development. To understand this is quite simple. If there is a real problem that reflects the real needs of mankind, money begins to go there, there they begin to spin and satisfying the real needs of people begin to make a profit. The amount of money in this area is increasing, which allows us to solve ever larger problems. If money accumulates in an area that does not solve the real problems of mankind, then people don’t need it, people don’t buy it and money in this area starts to disappear, causing bankruptcy and market collapse. That is, inefficient areas "die off" and cease to "suck" resources. T.O. a self-regulating mechanism appears linking the economy with the utility function for people. This is the meaning of money. And the total amount of money in the state does not matter. You can issue any amount. If after this this amount is fixed, then automatically, after some time, the money will be redistributed to the effective areas. The main thing is not to make these emissions too often and uncontrollably.

          And your tablet simply reflects a long-known truth: countries with "hard currency" usually produce debt, and countries with "soft" produce goods bought up by the first countries for "drawn candy wrappers".
          1. korvin1976
            korvin1976 2 May 2017 16: 24 New
            +2
            Regrettably, I am sorry to forgive the question.
            But if you can translate what you wrote into normal Russian.
            In principle, I understood what you wrote about, but somehow I don’t get it all connected with the general conversation and the general theme. Simply:
            Quote: Cube123
            If there is a real problem that reflects the real needs of mankind, money begins to go there, there they begin to spin and satisfying the real needs of people begin to make a profit. The amount of money in this area is increasing, which allows us to solve ever larger problems.

            It leads me to think that OSHA is the biggest problem of mankind.
            1. Cube123
              Cube123 2 May 2017 16: 47 New
              +1
              I just wrote about the mechanisms that allow the economy to allocate and spend resources as efficiently as possible, including human resources. Together with the mechanisms of Darwinian selection, in fact, this allows to OPTIMIZE the development of mankind.

              The "general theme" is so wide that it can be discussed endlessly smile

              Is the USA the biggest problem of mankind? I dont know. I think that they are a very good incentive for the rest. This is that "pike in the river so that crucian carp does not doze off." A sort of real predator. Not one crucian will like it. But this is only the opinion of crucian carp. And you can’t survive in a competitive struggle, die off and give way to a more fit one. It is sad, but it is a law of nature.
              1. korvin1976
                korvin1976 2 May 2017 22: 36 New
                +2
                Quote: Cube123
                I just wrote about the mechanisms that allow the economy to allocate and spend resources as efficiently as possible, including human resources. Together with the mechanisms of Darwinian selection, in fact, this allows to OPTIMIZE the development of mankind.

                That is, in fact, you have taken a thesis about economics that is completely unrelated to this situation, and on the basis of this thesis you have concluded that my thoughts were incorrect. Logically enough of course.
                Quote: Cube123
                Is the USA the biggest problem of mankind? I dont know. I think that they are a very good incentive for the rest. This is that "pike in the river so that crucian carp does not doze off." A sort of real predator. Not one crucian will like it. But this is only the opinion of crucian carp. And you can’t survive in a competitive struggle, die off and give way to a more fit one. It is sad, but it is a law of nature.

                Please note, I concluded that OSA is the biggest problem of mankind, based on your thesis about the economy. At the same time, unfortunately, I did not read the answer to my request:
                Quote: korvin1976
                if you can translate what you wrote in normal Russian.


                If you think that the economic policy of the “eternal rising loan” is correct, then unfortunately, I do not adhere to your point of view.
                1. Cube123
                  Cube123 3 May 2017 06: 50 New
                  +2
                  Practice is the criterion of truth. Eternal Loan Policy this is just an example of a financial pyramid. When it ceases to be true - the pyramid will collapse. But for now she exists, even though relying on not always economic methods, She COMMODY is of great benefit. Otherwise, it would not exist. Just personally, you are not its beneficiary. And from your point of view, it is not true. And from the point of view of beneficiaries, it is TRUE. It’s like two teams in a game.

                  A answer to "if you can translate what you wrote into normal Russian" I am not capable. Each person has his own normal language for him. So that I can translate my language into normal for YOU language, I have to know it. And I know too little about you to know your language. Ask questions. If I can, I will answer.
                  1. korvin1976
                    korvin1976 3 May 2017 07: 29 New
                    +1
                    Quote: Cube123
                    not always economic methods

                    Then it’s not clear why all your points about the economy were
                    Quote: Cube123
                    Just personally, you are not its beneficiary

                    If I am not a beneficiary, it does not mean that I can judge its error or insolvency. For example: if I do not sit in the cannibal's boiler at the moment, it does not mean that I should not understand that cannibalism is bad.
                    Quote: Cube123
                    And I’m not able to answer "if you can translate what you wrote into normal Russian"

                    No comment.

                    I do not plan to continue the dispute with you, I see no reason, and even more so there is not any information component. To write posts, in order to write them, sorry, but this is not in my rules. Let me take my leave.
                    1. Cube123
                      Cube123 3 May 2017 11: 16 New
                      +1
                      You are probably still a very young man, judging by the categorical judgments. With age you will understand that in life there are very few questions that can be answered unambiguously “YES” or “NO”.
                      Continue or not continue the dialogue is definitely your choice. One of those questions that can be answered categorically is “YES”. Good luck smile
                    2. Cube123
                      Cube123 3 May 2017 11: 33 New
                      +1
                      Sorry, but returning to the economy, I decided to still answer your last post.
                      It seems to me that you don’t understand one thing that is essentially simple about a market economy: a market economy is always uncertainty. At any given time, approximately half think that you need to "sell." The other part believes that you need to "buy." And deals are made between those and others. If there is certainty, for example, everyone believes that they need to "sell", then no one will buy from them, because everyone knows that they need to "sell". This is the death of the market.
                      This is the essence of our disagreement with you. Do you think that any situation can be defined as “right” or not “right” for everyone indiscriminately. It seems to me that in an economy, with any decision, there are always those for whom this situation is beneficial and those for whom it is not.
                      1. korvin1976
                        korvin1976 5 May 2017 13: 00 New
                        +1
                        I apologize the same way, but apparently you consider me a complete moron. I can reassure you, I know that 2 + 2 = 4. I have mastered the main points for once.
                        I wrote only that the economy of "perpetual credit", in my opinion, is not acceptable for our country, that this type of economy leads to a dead end. And that’s why I think it’s not right.
                        It’s like a tribe of cannibals, for them there are people, this is normal, but for the rest, it is immoral. Same thing with this situation.
                        On the other hand, the economy of "perpetual credit" is a decadent economy, whatever one may say, and whatever you call it. As they say, how much the rope does not curl, and the end will be.
                        For example, the BRICS countries just do not support the economy of the “perpetual loan”, I think for the most part this is what unites them, and this is exactly the opposite pole, to those countries that are on the “credit needle”. If you look at the big 7 countries, it’s just there that they’re basically weird. Canada + Japan, countries essentially under the external control of OSHA.
                        And precisely because of this, I believe that the "credit" economy is not right, because I do not want our country to be under external control
    2. region58
      region58 3 May 2017 01: 26 New
      +1
      Quote: korvin1976
      I'm certainly not an economist

      Quote: korvin1976
      I concluded for myself that the economies of the “developed” countries are based on the principle of “malicious creditors,” with a shortage of funds, he takes a new loan, then a new one, then a new one, on the basis of what you will not have to repay.

      Strange ... I'm not an economist either ... I once became interested in this issue, and came to the same conclusions that are confirmed by world inflation, including the dollar (inflation calculator - http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ )
      Quote: rait
      This is actually one of the bubbles in the global economy.

      And this bubble will be supported by all means (including those who invest in it), otherwise the consequences are unpredictable - IMHO.
      PS I would like to think that our little gold is not bought up by chance ...
      PPS A good article, read with interest ...
      1. would
        would 5 May 2017 06: 54 New
        0
        And this bubble will be supported by all means (including those who invest in it), otherwise the consequences are unpredictable - IMHO.


        Will be supported, will be. Just because it is one of the main bubbles of the world economy on which it rests, it is precisely due to the mechanism of public debt and credit that all states and a huge number of companies are kept afloat. This is one of the main mechanisms of modern economic activity in general. Take away the loan, in fact destroy these states and companies. By the way, we are also among them.

        The truth is to say that while the system is working so that the public debt is constantly and stably paid, this bubble is relatively stable and does not threaten to burst in the near future.
  11. IS-80_RVGK2
    IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 08: 48 New
    +1
    What is wrong with the economy of the Russian Federation?

    Posted by Andrey from Chelyabinsk

    Where about the ships? What was it? what
  12. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 2 May 2017 09: 19 New
    +2
    The wretched economy of patchworking trishkina kaftan holes. And they are all happy. Who is asking us?
  13. olimpiada15
    olimpiada15 2 May 2017 09: 25 New
    10
    The article is good. The author, using simple and understandable examples, was able to show how an economic impasse is being formed in the country. The enormous income of the people who manage the finances and economy of the country is the payment for the destruction of the economy and people of the country. They are not engaged in economic growth, but form a virtual reality in the form of figures of GDP growth due to the impoverishment of the population. If you admit this fact, then you can find a way out of this situation. The largest income to the treasury is VAT, i.e. if the population's incomes increase, then purchasing power will increase and the treasury will replenish. Unsatisfied demand due to the lack of normal incomes, tens of millions of citizens deny themselves the purchase of the most necessary. So it is necessary to increase the production of our own goods in the country, to create enterprises that will work effectively. 2558 trillion rubles are invested in the national economy. So do not give them into private hands, but create state-owned enterprises: 49% to the state, 51% to the labor collective. Regulate the salary by the tariff scale, where the management will have a salary slightly higher than the most qualified employee of the enterprise. If you want to have a high income, make the company work efficiently, then the manager will receive bonuses for good work in the amount of several salaries, and you can also establish a percentage of the profit. Why 51% of the shares to the labor collective, because the workers of the enterprise are the most interested party to have a job and a decent salary, which means they can plan their lives, support their families, and the state appoints its people from among the officials who know that from one the seats will be transferred to another, they are not expensive. And the labor collective can choose its leader. This is not fiction, such enterprises worked in the late Soviet period and were destroyed in the first place, when outsiders became the owners of the controlling stake. By the way, Putin spoke about the injustice of secured auctions, so let's begin to eliminate injustice. The money invested by the state will be paid off at the expense of the profit of the enterprise. And social spending on the state will decrease: such an enterprise will spend part of the profit on improving conditions for workers: on rehabilitation, on children's institutions. And today in the country the “elite” is a role from the play, for it is Russian only by the presence of a Russian passport, often not only a Russian one, and they have interests in the West (real estate, deposits, children), and for the West they are not the elite, but only agents defending the interests of the West in the supply of strategic raw materials for the Western economy under the mantra of GDP growth. How these indicators improve are very well told by the author of the article.
    1. yuriy55
      yuriy55 2 May 2017 11: 14 New
      +5
      Damn ... And we can not find a replacement for Medvedev ... We do not see people representing the ways and means of development of production ...
      good fellow
    2. fif21
      fif21 2 May 2017 15: 18 New
      +1
      Quote: olimpiada15
      and create state-national enterprises: 49% to the state, 51% to the labor collective.

      laughing I recalled the times of privatization. If the hard worker had shares of the enterprise, he was forced to sell these shares by bosses under pain of dismissal. Not many who have withstood this press and, as a result, have a violet worker at their factory. hi
      1. olimpiada15
        olimpiada15 2 May 2017 16: 20 New
        +2
        fif21 in your comment, the most important thing is that “the boss threatened to dismiss him and forced him to sell his shares” because she wrote that 51% of the property is for the work collective.
        Of course, I know how to deal with the shares of workers. We have not paid anything at all. But there is such a form of ownership, share. Those. a working person has a share that is not sold freely, like stocks. If a person leaves, he is paid the earned share. And 51% is the percentage of the work team, so that the decision rests with the team, which has the right to express distrust to the leader and dismiss. The rights of people in the protection of private property must be specified in the employment contract. Understand that today people value a well-paid place, and therefore they will be active in decision-making. Is it possible that she wrote? Yes, this is taken from a particular enterprise. And the directors were chosen and defended. The company ruined the fact that the team did not have 51% of the shares.
        1. Cube123
          Cube123 2 May 2017 18: 01 New
          +3
          Quote: olimpiada15
          fif21 in your comment, the most important thing is that “the boss threatened to dismiss him and forced him to sell his shares” because she wrote that 51% of the property is for the work collective.
          Of course, I know how to deal with the shares of workers. We have not paid anything at all. But there is such a form of ownership, share. Those. a working person has a share that is not sold freely, like stocks. If a person leaves, he is paid the earned share. And 51% is the percentage of the work team, so that the decision rests with the team, which has the right to express distrust to the leader and dismiss. The rights of people in the protection of private property must be specified in the employment contract. Understand that today people value a well-paid place, and therefore they will be active in decision-making. Is it possible that she wrote? Yes, this is taken from a particular enterprise. And the directors were chosen and defended. The company ruined the fact that the team did not have 51% of the shares.

          And it was precisely that period (lasting less than a year under Gorbachev) when the directors were chosen by the employees that finally convinced me of the futility of this scheme. Well, it cannot, excuse me, herd, choose a shepherd. The modern manager is primarily a specialist in the field of management, and then they mainly chose populists who promised not paying attention to reality. The meetings that I saw then chose the most idiotic solution out of those proposed. How can one not recall the well-known phrase: "The disadvantage of democracy is that the opinion of two idiots with it means more than the opinion of one academician."
          1. olimpiada15
            olimpiada15 2 May 2017 19: 38 New
            +1
            We had a director, in which the company resolved all issues: providing food - a subsidiary farm, a dispensary, 5 kindergartens, a camp site, a boarding house in the south, three dormitories, and housing construction - they chose it.
            1. Cube123
              Cube123 3 May 2017 06: 19 New
              +1
              You're lucky. The opinion of the team is too unreliable selection criteria. The delay is too great. Usually the team will begin to notice the impasse of a situation when it is already too late. Only the top of the enterprise has a more or less adequate picture. Therefore, the chairman of the collective farm or cooperative should be elected by the general meeting - he is in full view around the clock. And cooperative ties are simple and clear. But the director of a modern enterprise, in my opinion, is not. The team, by virtue of its individual specialization, is not able to evaluate the whole complex of qualities necessary for the leader. And the success of the enterprise depends not only on the team, but also on the ability of the head to work with partners and the State, whose opinion is not taken into account when voting only within the team.
      2. Cube123
        Cube123 2 May 2017 17: 48 New
        +3
        fif21 today, 15:18
        At the Diamond was even more interesting. Salaries were not paid for half a year or more. With hunger, people exchanged their shares for a meat pie in stalls near the metro. Then, at a meeting of shareholders, a young director of a nearby market appeared and said: "I have a controlling stake."
  14. Solidarist
    Solidarist 2 May 2017 09: 32 New
    16
    What is wrong with the Russian economy? In a nutshell - it is colonial. Its basis is the sale of raw materials and semi-finished products at low prices to European trading companies and the withdrawal of the proceeds to the offshore of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, may Allah extend her years.
    Basic principles of the Russian economy: privatization of profits and nationalization of debts.
    1. Basarev
      Basarev 2 May 2017 10: 12 New
      +3
      She is not colonial. A more correct name is rent-inflationary. Inflation is one of the key sources of replenishment of the budget. It's simple: oil and gas almost exclusively monopolizing the country fell in price, the authorities dropped the value of the ruble in order to compensate for the fall, creating inflation. The budget has leveled off, the number of rubles in the budget is no less than before the fall in oil prices. Only the weight is not at all the same.
    2. Ermak
      Ermak 5 May 2017 18: 13 New
      0
      Quote: Solidarist
      What is wrong with the Russian economy? In a nutshell - it is colonial.

      It is, although the media sphere draws different. He convinces ... everything will be fine .... the advertising service of the Russian radio ..
      All on the organs ... understand when you wake up (((
  15. Kudrevkn
    Kudrevkn 2 May 2017 09: 57 New
    0
    Hello Andrey! What was it? Cry from the heart? As one of our fellow countrymen and a true colonel, Mayor of Chebarkul Andrei Orlov used to say: "Brought a problem to the leader? Suggest a solution !? For the leader is not obliged to solve your problem for you - he is busy solving STATE QUESTIONS!" What is the essence of this article? In addition to blah blah blah, do you have any concrete suggestions or ideas? Or how do your idols Delyagin and Glazyev: "Everything is gone !? The client leaves, the plaster is removed ..."
    1. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 10: 28 New
      +5
      Quote: KudrevKN
      he is busy addressing STATE QUESTIONS

      Something about our state is not particularly visible. Maybe because instead of government issues, these leaders mainly solve their own issues? And yes, most of your leaders are stupid bosses, without any vision of perspective. Within the framework of the already created system, they can somehow manage, but alas, something to move on.
    2. yuriy55
      yuriy55 2 May 2017 11: 43 New
      +5
      Quote: KudrevKN
      What is the essence of this article? In addition to blah blah blah, do you have any concrete suggestions or ideas?

      There above guys offer. And you yourself? Or Medvedev's mediator? He also offers nothing ... And from Putin we do not hear new ideas for economic development, as well as new people in his circle and government. I mean competent and with experience of building ... Shuffles the old speckled deck.
      I’ll tell you more, our misfortune lies in our slavish submission and unconditional absolute agreement ... Bought with offal by trade unions and fake opposition. But idols cannot be created from anything. A person has achievements, let him try a larger volume ... But even with thieves caught by the hand, they don’t do anything. They are waiting for the people to forget ...
      1. Kudrevkn
        Kudrevkn 2 May 2017 21: 35 New
        0
        To be honest, I already zae ... l the Presidential Administration with my "proposals"? And honestly and honestly, I admit that we have a complete understanding in the Administration, but .... For the implementation of our proposals (my ideas and administrative instructions at the level of the deputy head of the Administration), all materials are sent to the Ministries (Government) and Would you see ANSWERS? Language will not turn out to call this heresy or Bullshit Bullshit outright sabotage - people write notifications with no education, but also with basic literacy? And Mr. Medvedev. like Rogozin. like hundreds of other top ones, they are more concerned with their own well-being than with “thoughts about the fate of the Motherland,” the fate of their offspring. relatives and friends? You, for example, know. that Svetlana Medvedeva and Evgeny Vasiliev are sisters? So I recently found out !? Are you a Medvedev mediator?
    3. fif21
      fif21 2 May 2017 15: 05 New
      0
      Quote: KudrevKN
      "Is everything gone !? The client leaves, the plaster is removed ..."

      1. Allow the work of Western banks in Russia.
      2. Gradually reduce the sale of raw materials from the Russian Federation
      3. Prohibit the sale of Russian goods for currency.
      4. Legislatively consolidate the payment of dividends at a level of at least 50% of profits.
      5. Introduce a progressive tax scale.
      6. Transfer health care and education to private hands.
      7. Complete confiscation of property for theft.
      And much more, but this will not be done, since those in power are not interested in the interests of the people of Russia. hi
      1. Kudrevkn
        Kudrevkn 2 May 2017 21: 36 New
        0
        Are you from the Zyuganov or Zhirinovsky clan?
        1. fif21
          fif21 4 May 2017 22: 44 New
          0
          Quote: KudrevKN
          Are you from the Zyuganov or Zhirinovsky clan?
          I don’t understand your question enough! I am Russian, and the clans in the USA (Rodschilds, Rockefellers, Kennedy ...) Are you my friend spies? wassat
          1. Kudrevkn
            Kudrevkn 5 May 2017 18: 52 New
            0
            "Spien" and "old man" you finally convinced me - you are Zyuganov.!
    4. fif21
      fif21 2 May 2017 15: 30 New
      +1
      Quote: KudrevKN
      For the leader is not obliged to solve your problem for you - he is busy solving STATE QUESTIONS! "
      I understand this, the state does not want to solve my problems. But why, then I must solve the problems of the state then? Why then all these calls to people? Create enterprises, go into business, raise productivity, engage in self-education! And what in return? Beggarly salary, the prospect of not surviving to retirement ..... They rejoice! In Russia, cheap labor (cheaper than in China), but for these words alone, these "economists" must be put on the wall! hi
    5. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
      2 May 2017 19: 03 New
      +2
      Quote: KudrevKN
      What is the essence of this article?

      In analyzing the causes of our sad state
      Quote: KudrevKN
      In addition to blah blah blah, do you have any concrete suggestions or ideas?

      Naturally, there is, I thought to myself that if this article arouses interest, then write the following with how to get out of this situation
      1. olimpiada15
        olimpiada15 2 May 2017 19: 47 New
        +2
        Andrew! Please write the following article. You have so simply and clearly explained the essence of economic processes that you really want to know your vision of a way out.
      2. IS-80_RVGK2
        IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 19: 59 New
        +3
        Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk
        In analyzing the causes of our sad state

        That is, he knew how to judge,
        As the state grows rich,
        And what lives, and why.
        He does not need gold,
        When a simple product has.
        Father could not understand him,
        And he pledged land. (C) laughing
      3. Kudrevkn
        Kudrevkn 2 May 2017 21: 37 New
        0
        Alas, I didn’t see just the “analysis of our sad state”, sorry!
    6. Ermak
      Ermak 5 May 2017 18: 46 New
      0
      Quote: KudrevKN
      Hello Andrey! What was it? Cry from the heart? As one of our fellow countrymen and a true colonel, Mayor of Chebarkul Andrei Orlov used to say: "Brought a problem to the leader? Suggest a solution !? For the leader is not obliged to solve your problem for you - he is busy solving STATE QUESTIONS!" What is the essence of this article? In addition to blah blah blah, do you have any concrete suggestions or ideas? Or how do your idols Delyagin and Glazyev: "Everything is gone !? The client leaves, the plaster is removed ..."

      There will be no solution without identifying problems, is that at least clear?
  16. Shadow of darkness
    Shadow of darkness 2 May 2017 10: 14 New
    0
    After the author added up all the mentioned components of the GDP and received 100% ... then I read diagonally. lol
    1. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
      2 May 2017 15: 46 New
      +3
      Quote: Shadow of the Dark
      After the author added up all the mentioned components of the GDP and received 100% ...

      I apologize. When copying an article, I missed the top position - "wholesale and retail trade." Thanks for seeing the error, fixed it.
      Unfortunately, when you write an article your eyes become blurry, so even after re-reading it 4 times sometimes you can make some kind of mistake.
      1. Shadow of darkness
        Shadow of darkness 2 May 2017 20: 38 New
        +2
        I would not trust Glazyev, once Gref was also a nightingale, and now, besides toothache, he doesn’t cause any more emotions. The largest investments could come from our "business", but in most cases, by hook or by crook, they take everything abroad and invest there. Who will invest in production or science if local people themselves are trying to move their business abroad? Technologies that would be interesting to us also do not want to be shared with us. Many high technologies remained banned for Russia, and after the imposition of sanctions, this will not be the case. The analysis has some one-sidedness, but everyone who is trying to deal with our economy is guilty of this. Thank you for your article in which you expressed your point of view!
        1. yehat
          yehat 5 May 2017 12: 16 New
          0
          you would first listen to what Glazyev is talking about!
          he also proposes to significantly improve the climate for producers - from simplifying a capital loan to changing a number of laws, tax rates, etc.
          The development of targeted financing is not formal (as in cx or Rosnano or in Skolkovo), but real.
          What could be mistrust of this? For production, the conditions are the same everywhere, you just need to create them in practice, and not in words - this is the basis of Glazyev’s program.
          To diversify the economy, simplification of the work of small business is needed - this is also Glazyev trying to lobby. The same thing is done wherever the economy develops.
          And there are also programs to reorganize the financial apparatus, which is now de facto dropping the ruble, artificially reducing the country's GDP and welfare for the sake of a formal accounting outcome of the budget.

          nothing has changed in the work of the economy from ancient Egypt and the Sumerian state - the basic necessary conditions for development are the same, Glazyev only offers to deal with them in practice.
  17. Alex_59
    Alex_59 2 May 2017 10: 54 New
    +4
    Ahead of! Andrey, bravo! I had sketches of an article with a very similar plot and conclusions, but I did not get at all to bring it into a salable condition. Well, okay - the main content!
    By the way, it is indicative that similar thoughts completely occur to me and the author quite independently from each other.
    I would also add that in the context of the supposedly universal equality that is being imposed on us through the WTO and other international structures, we can never be effective and compete with the West. Due to at least the same climate. And nobody will give us concessions on climate costs. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce amendments, to deal with the protectionism of their enterprises, of course in moderation - but it is necessary.
    And at the moment, how do we live? We buy imported phones, cars, equipment ... like for rubles. But in fact - for dollars or euros. It's just that the store has already rewritten the price tag from dollars to rubles. The seller bought these goods for dollars in the west. Where did he get the dollars? Changed in the bank. Where are they from the bank? From the Central Bank. Where in the Central Bank? Someone passed them, selling something outside the Russian Federation for dollars. And what do we sell outside the Russian Federation for dollars? Oil and gas. Those. if we remove the extra links in the chain, we changed a certain amount of oil to a certain number of cars or phones. Dollars in the Russian Federation are not taken from nowhere - this is revenue from foreign trade operations. Giving our natural resources in return we get the opportunity to buy all sorts of trinkets for these dollars. Moreover, trinkets after some time fall apart and become obsolete. And new ones will be needed - again, oil and gas must be sold.
    1. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
      2 May 2017 19: 07 New
      +2
      Quote: Alex_59
      Ahead! Andrey, bravo!

      Thank you, glad that we came to similar conclusions!
  18. yuriy55
    yuriy55 2 May 2017 11: 09 New
    +2
    Perhaps they take a little more from personal income than ours, but less from the revenue of companies, but from a rearrangement of terms, the sum does not change. Apparently, the problem is that the revenue, profits and salaries of Russian companies are much more modest than in the West - hence the difference in tax amounts.


    What an interesting argument. When necessary, arithmetic, when not necessary, geometry. In a village of the 30s of the last century, you would be listened to like this: belay
    The problem is that the revenue of our companies is distributed somewhat differently. Fixed assets of the enterprise do not grow, and all profits go to salaries and bonuses of management. Therefore, the worker has no interest in raising labor productivity. When you take a large tax from the enterprise, you cut down the possibilities of this enterprise in development. And when you increase the tax on physical. face - limit his indefatigable appetite. bully In addition, in Russian production, the states of nothing-producing workers are too inflated ... NOTHING !!! am

    At some points it is objective. It is clear that the Russian plant in the Urals bears somewhat greater costs than a similar manufacturer in sunny Spain, where the concept of central heating is mostly unfamiliar. And it’s not so easy for a Russian farmer to compete with an Italian one who takes crops twice a year. But all this can be compensated - yes, just below the salary, slightly lower the standard of living ... but not at times!


    Maybe there is no heating there, only there is no oil and gas there either. The difference is that when they come into production there they plan to do this all their lives and transfer the business by inheritance. Our production is poisoned by appointments to senior positions of one-time people, temporary workers. The purpose of which is to maximize the benefits for themselves and change their place of residence ... That's the whole difference ...
    1. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 11: 49 New
      +1
      Quote: yuriy55
      In addition, in Russian production, the states of nothing-producing workers are too inflated ... NOTHING !!!

      We have a post-industrial economy. bully
  19. Tektor
    Tektor 2 May 2017 11: 25 New
    0
    Andrey from Chelyabinsk, good morning, just woke up ... We have been living like this for 26 years ... Yes, our budget is monstrously dependent on oil and gas exports ... But this is not a minus, i.e. there is nothing wrong with that, but these are the "boundary conditions" from which we are trying to get out. And the abundant revenues of petrodollars during the fat years did not allow other sectors of our economy to rise. Now we are just trying to "get off the oil and gas needle" by introducing a budget limit on these revenues at the level of 2700 rubles per barrel, i.e. all revenues above this level will be withdrawn from the economy to the reserve fund. This will not allow the ruble to regroup, and will not strangle other sectors of the economy.
    1. uskrabut
      uskrabut 2 May 2017 11: 47 New
      +3
      Quote: Tektor
      those. all revenues above this level will be withdrawn from the economy to the reserve fund.


      and then, as it was in 2008, the funds from the reserve fund will be transferred to support the activities of the banking sector, they will buy currency for them, but the real economy will not see this money.
    2. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
      2 May 2017 19: 06 New
      +2
      Quote: Tektor
      Andrey from Chelyabinsk, good morning, just woke up ... We have been living like this for 26 years ...

      It seems to have written about that. And I didn’t “just wake up”, I just had a desire to write an article on economic topics.
  20. uskrabut
    uskrabut 2 May 2017 11: 44 New
    +4
    "The really bad thing is that the government of our country has long learned to exist and maintain stability in the conditions of a permanent economic crisis, in which the economy of the Russian Federation has been living for 26 years. And therefore, our government has not the slightest reason to change anything - the current he’s quite happy with the situation. "

    Gold words! Anyway, the government will have enough money for its own ah, what big salaries. But what about the people? And what about the people? Somehow smack. The salary of any minister does not depend on the standard of living of an ordinary Russian.
    1. yehat
      yehat 5 May 2017 12: 20 New
      +1
      salaries? government lobbying earns 3-4 orders of magnitude more.
      remember our valiant bottom finder Siluanov.
  21. AA17
    AA17 2 May 2017 11: 55 New
    +9
    Bravo, to the author. I have not met such an article for a long time. Everything is clear and intelligible. I fully share all the thoughts of the author. I really liked the comparison in the article - "... the first step in curing alcohol dependence is to recognize its presence ..." Our economists must admit that they are "alcoholics." For this reason, our homegrown "economic alcoholics" want to privatize everything (many Russian citizens on the forums note that our government as the last drunkards take everything out of the house to get hangover). Alcoholics are sick people, they must be treated. If they refused treatment, then they were treated forcibly. Previously, these were treated in LTP (medical and labor dispensary). Our economic block in the government has long been SEND to "LTP".
    1. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
      2 May 2017 19: 05 New
      +5
      Quote: AA17
      For this reason, our homegrown "economic alcoholics" want to privatize everything (many Russian citizens on the forums note that our government as the last drunkards take everything out of the house to get hangover).

      good Bravo! This comparison did not occur to me
      1. IS-80_RVGK2
        IS-80_RVGK2 2 May 2017 20: 24 New
        +5
        Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk
        Bravo! This comparison did not occur to me

        Here even more sad analogies come to mind. For example, the fact that these fighters with the cartoonish communist “take away and share” essentially offer the same thing with their privatization 2.0. And the fact that critics of the socialist economy for 26 years were not able to organize their efficient economy under the incomparably better initial starting conditions. Where, where is their effective economy that they would organize from scratch and without the help of the state they hate so much that they constantly want to throw out of the economy? Where are these "garage geniuses" our Bill Gates and Steve Jobs? They shouted that “advice depends on oil prices” and they themselves depend in the same way. And if the state’s expenses had not been cut wherever possible, so that only the people would not raise them to the pitchfork, it would now be the same nightmare as in the late 80s. Everyone arrived, the communists were bad at monopolizing power, cheers comrades, now we have, in fact, again one party, with the whole country hesitating with a line. Awww, boobies of all political colors, it may now come to you that it was not so much the Communists who were in charge as the stupid, greedy and selfish bureaucrats to whom now the same quirky businessmen were added. And yes, they didn’t come from Mars, they are we.
    2. Grandadmiral
      Grandadmiral 3 May 2017 16: 34 New
      +1
      Quote: AA17
      Our economic block in the government has long been SEND to "LTP".

      Better in ITL and indefinitely.
  22. den-protector
    den-protector 2 May 2017 15: 24 New
    +8
    After the death of the USSR back in 1991 as a result of the bourgeois-oligarchic coup, we are now eating away the remnants of the Soviet heritage. Apparently, these remnants are also slowly being taken away from private shops, including foreign. There is no money, but you stay there. For the elite there is always money. Holes in the budget are not measured, they need to be plugged with something, while at the same time transferring the most profitable assets to the right hands. Under capitalism, Russia has one perspective - the Time of Troubles. Only the transition of our country to socialism, taking into account the mistakes of the USSR, can save the country.
    In this situation, there are golden words I.V. Stalin: “We must build our economy so that our country does not become an appendage of the world capitalist system, that it is not included in the general system of capitalist development as its subsidiary enterprise, so that our economy does not develop as an auxiliary enterprise of world capitalism, but as an independent an economic unit based mainly on the domestic market, based on the link between our industry and the peasant economy of our country. ” (from the report of Stalin at the XIV Congress of the CPSU (b)).
    As I looked into the water. And now everything is exactly the opposite.
    1. olimpiada15
      olimpiada15 2 May 2017 17: 05 New
      +3
      The above quote by I.V. Stalin shows the path that a strong and independent country should follow. But, read this quote again and compare it with the position of the current government, the financial and economic bloc — all their postulates are diametrically opposed to the Stalinist ones, precisely because what happens is happening — they press on the country, slander, and violate the interests of the Russian state. And there would be a strong, independent country, it would be reckoned with. Why it happens ? Yes, because we are integrating, for any chain of integration, the West is grabbing to strangle the country. And when was it different? Over the centuries, all generations of our ancestors fought because we were attacked, and it was the West that nurtured Nazi Germany, and the West will always do everything for Russia to lose its statehood. This is what you must not forget, you can and should be good neighbors, but you cannot be a part of the West, because in this case Russia is assigned the role of the part on which they wipe their feet. No need to be simple-minded, you need to remember your story.
  23. Denimax
    Denimax 2 May 2017 16: 59 New
    0
    Economics is the same mechanics. We need economic engineers and inventors. Apparently, today's economists are acting stereotyped, just like they taught at a university.)
    1. olimpiada15
      olimpiada15 2 May 2017 20: 13 New
      +2
      Quote: Denimax
      Economics is the same mechanics. We need economic engineers and inventors. Apparently, today's economists are acting stereotyped, just like they taught at a university.)

      Today's economists do not just act in a stereotyped fashion, but in a pattern imposed by the West for the sole purpose that Russia's wealth serves to strengthen their power, while Russia is weakened and subordinate to them. If you do not get away from this pattern, the West will achieve its goals. Therefore, economists trained in Western patterns must be replaced. The production workers, both production and economists, must command. In production, money is like blood in the body: it must move and provide for the needs of technological processes. And profit in production gives rise to profit. The principle of withdrawing money from production into a personal pocket, then partially returning it in the form of investments, on the security of withdrawing future profits, acts on production like a dead poultice: body temperature can be raised, but it will not work out.
  24. 16112014nk
    16112014nk 2 May 2017 20: 01 New
    +4
    What is wrong with the Russian economy?
    Siluanov, Naebulin, Gref, Kudrin, Chubais, Shuvalov, Dvorkovich, Sechin, Miller, and "cherry on the cake" - "Nedimon", these are the reasons for all this "not so." Economy + above listed = "wrong."
  25. Nikolay Vozisov
    Nikolay Vozisov 2 May 2017 20: 33 New
    +3
    Everything is spelled out clearly. Clearly, understandably, to a simple citizen of the Russian Federation. But why is our economy hanging on the neck of a common people? When will the light appear at the end of the tunnel? And how long will the Russian people endure mediocre economists who have managed in the richest country to arrange devastation and support it for 25 years now? Where is that Danko who, with a torch in his hands, will lead our people out of economic bondage?
  26. opus
    opus 3 May 2017 01: 11 New
    +1
    + + +
    I’m writing from a cocoa iPhone. There is not much to add, but Hotz: there are thoughts.
    Let them read Naebulin with powder and ... and laugh in silence
  27. iouris
    iouris 3 May 2017 10: 46 New
    0
    She drowned in the oil and gas.
  28. DPN
    DPN 3 May 2017 11: 44 New
    +1
    There are many superfluous people in Russia, but economists don’t know what to do. The West said that in Russia there will be enough 15 million people, and we will have 150 million., And they are cute all the Westerners, that's all.
  29. Tishka
    Tishka 4 May 2017 01: 33 New
    +1
    But our Central Bank, headed by Elvira Nabiulina, at a meager percentage, invests in the development of the American economy, instead of building factories, with this money, which, ultimately, will create jobs and generate revenue for the treasury, albeit not big. but income! And we are assured that it is necessary to sell everything that remains in the country to private individuals, they say they will increase efficiency, modernize and increase labor productivity, and will not beat back the money spent on the purchase of a plant or factory! A logical impasse is created until money has been repulsed, there is nothing to invest in modernization, it is not possible to take out a loan, and taking a loan over the hill, it’s more expensive for yourself, you can be bankrupt! So, during the 25 years of rule, the government could not cope with the task, and shifted the entire burden onto the shoulders of the people, they say survive, as you like, there is no money, but you hold on!
    1. yehat
      yehat 5 May 2017 12: 22 New
      0
      But our Central Bank, led by Elvira Nabiulina, at a meager percentage, invests in the development of the American economy

      and then he takes a loan at a much higher percentage.
  30. Kudrevkn
    Kudrevkn 4 May 2017 13: 55 New
    0
    Just now. watching the meeting of the State Council, drew attention. that our Oreshkin and "their" Macron are similar as "twins - brothers": both in face and in spirit? Only ours is fatter and swollen !? Probably the "wrong bees" bit?
  31. Penzyac
    Penzyac 4 May 2017 18: 50 New
    0
    Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
    Quote: krass
    What do you blame the climate all the time? You probably think that heating is much more expensive than cooling (conditioning).

    And you want to say that the climate does not need to be taken into account? And yes, do you have any kind of research on hand so as to immediately equalize the costs of the influence of positive temperatures with the costs of the influence of minus?

    I’ll add, but there are also countries where minus 35 does not happen, and plus 35 is rare, for example: Germany, Britain, most of France and the USA, and even Poland and the Scandinavian countries and many others ...
    So, Israel is an unsuccessful example, in general, what would it do without the constant help of the USA? ...
    Among the countries other than Israel, "hot" countries, I do not observe anything particularly developed (without oil) ...
    Among the "cold" countries, the climate is similar to Russia with only one single relatively sparsely populated Canal, and that too, like we with oil and forest ...
  32. tank64rus
    tank64rus 4 May 2017 18: 56 New
    +1
    Interesting Andrew from Chelyabinsk intelligently explained everything. And our government and the HSE not only do nothing because they cannot steer differently. In addition, most of them represent the interests of a particular oligarch. There is nothing to say about HSE. Having the fat herds of pseudo-scientific economists leave the state without economic leadership. This must be able to.
  33. Former battalion commander
    Former battalion commander 4 May 2017 23: 13 New
    +1
    Against Russia, there is a REAL war for the extermination of both external and internal enemies (the same grefs and kudrins). What kind of investments from the west or FROM the country can we talk about? Everything that the people of Russia create HERE IS STEELING and money is hiding in the west. And no one, neither the president nor even the prime minister, EVEN AND THOUGHTS do not allow anything to change! What kind of future country can we talk about if the Russian "elite" purposefully destroys and plunders the country?
  34. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 5 May 2017 09: 53 New
    0
    What is wrong with the economy of the Russian Federation?


    This "not so" is shown in the first photograph in the article.
  35. yehat
    yehat 5 May 2017 12: 05 New
    +1
    it is worth noting that the government still does not disdain to play the ruble exchange rate seasonally, still welding on this in comparison with average inflation. In general, monetarism is in its most dubious form of application.
  36. Boris Shramov
    Boris Shramov 5 May 2017 22: 08 New
    0
    They steal everything and sundry. The budget feeder is open and only the death penalty with confiscation of property, if it is impossible to go beyond the "hill" of all officials and their relatives within 5 years after leaving the post and being on it.
  37. Forever so
    Forever so 5 May 2017 23: 52 New
    0
    While the scum in power, which in 1937 was immediately set against the wall, was in power, Russia could not see the end of the tunnel anywhere. Although if it has not yet come to anyone’s mind that Russia is just a feeding trough for the West, and Medvedev and Putin are a bad-good cop to prevent a social explosion, then everything fits together. Blacks do not need industry.
  38. nickname7
    nickname7 6 May 2017 08: 47 New
    0
    The problem of where to get the money can be solved if the money is taken from the rich.

    The author did not mention such a thing as progressive taxation, which can increase the budget. In the states, a progressive scale, and in the Russian Federation is flat, that is, Russian billionaires are taxing like a locksmith, or a pensioner.


    In the United States, federal income tax rates (PIT) are levied according to a multi-stage scheme and as of 2014 start at 10% and reach a maximum of 39,6%. The boundaries of taxation levels depend on the family status of the taxpayer. The following categories are distinguished: one (single) subject, married couple and single parent. In the case of a couple, a joint tax return is filed. The widow or widower who receives a pension for their spouse or spouse belongs to the same category (pensions are also taxed). In addition to the federal tax, each state additionally charges its own tax. As a result, the total tax can reach 50%.
    It would be interesting to recount the budget of the Russian Federation on the basis of progressive taxation, it is possible that it is not only possible to eliminate budget deficits and begin construction of roads and repair of dilapidated housing stock, but also to build aircraft carriers.
    And then here the forum users lament why the Russian Federation has a deplorable state of the fleet compared to the West, so the West nibbled its billionaires, hence they have aircraft carriers and destroyers.
  39. trenkkvaz
    trenkkvaz 6 May 2017 11: 30 New
    0
    Quote: The Truth
    The problem of Russia is the liberals who are in power and in power.
    Absolutely true thought: Russia does not have enough capital. But Russia has twice solved this problem in the past: for the first time at the turn of the century until the year 14, which ensured the rise in GDP, calculated in double digits; the second time under Stalin in the 30s of the last century and after the war, when it ensured, an unprecedented rise in productive forces, which made it possible to withstand and win the war, and to restore the country's economy after the war.
    A true and unprecedented rise in Russia can begin only when we, the people of us, will sweep away all liberals from the government and call in the government of nationally oriented patriots, for whom the good of Russia, the people of Russia, are not just beautiful words, but a goal that can be ensured by changing the economic policy of Russia: unbinding the Russian economy from the stranglehold of international bloodsuckers: the IMF, WTO, etc., stopping or reducing speculation in Russian assets, searching for and consolidating domestic resources aimed not at plundering and eating up the budget, but at construction and creation of the industrial potential of Russia, the revival of the economic power of Russia. A necessary condition for this is the extermination of liberals in the government.


    Well, again, about a certain good Russian words, and the people at the same time in the ass.
    When will the good of the people of Russia come first?
    After all, the whole history of Russia means good for her, shod, dressed, well-fed and well-armed Russian soldier. That’s all the blessings end. And the people at the same time usually eat the last horseradish without salt with the thought that there would be no war.
  40. Cube123
    Cube123 6 May 2017 11: 37 New
    +1
    korvin1976,
    Calm down, nobody considers you a moron. The problem is mutual understanding. It is in different languages. Just because, you hope, you understand that you will explain the same things in different ways (in different words and with different concepts) to a kindergarten graduate, a schoolboy, a candidate of science in economics, an academician ... Therefore, you always need an initial grinding in order to make sure that by the same words both interlocutors understand the same thing.

    Now essentially your post.

    "I wrote only that the economy of" perpetual credit ", in my opinion, is not acceptable for our country, that this type of economy leads to a dead end. And that is why I think it is not right."

    Yes, for Russia as a whole, this type of economy is extremely unprofitable. But both inside the country and from the outside there are many interested in imposing this particular type of economy on the country. A simple example of how this was done in Venezuela. In the seventies, when they found oil there, they began to bombard the country with foreign loans. There are so many currencies inside the country that it has lost value. The salary of a cleaning lady in kindergarten exceeded $ 2 per month. But this continued only until the moment when the amount of interest on loans issued equaled the value of exports in foreign currency. Loans were cut off and from that moment all exports went free of charge in interest payments, with no hope of repaying debts sometime. It was at this stage that Chavez came to power. They tried to do something similar with Russia in the 500s and early 90s. These are related processes - cheap currency and bacchanalia with its unreasonable waste. When non-renewable resources are taken out of a country for currency, and replenished ones are imported into the country for the received currency, and those that are in the toilet the next day (food), or very quickly in a landfill (foreign cars, computers, cell phones ...), or money is taken out by tourists or guest workers (just with a cheap currency it’s easier to hire someone than to do it yourself).

    Here we coincide and there is nothing to argue with us here.

    And the problem here is that it’s not enough to understand the harmfulness of this course (in Russia, very many already understand this, including the country's leadership), we need to fight this. That is why there is a systematic decrease in Russia's total debt. The last few years at $ 73 billion per year. Despite the fact that now it really reduces the living standards of the population. The problem is that the dogs were made at the high cost of oil, when there were a lot of currencies in the country and it seemed easy to repay the debts. When oil fell in price, it turned out that the currency in the country began to come not enough to cover interest and debts themselves. And now, already here, I had to maneuver with the exchange rate. The depreciation of the ruble primarily reduces the outflow of currency from the country. Less cars are bought, fewer tourists, fewer migrant workers .... And a decrease in the outflow of foreign currency allows saving for the repayment of debts.

    There is a good book by J. Perkins, Confession of an Economic Killer. There, the globality of the scheme is painted, almost point by point. I highly recommend it.
  41. Borus017
    Borus017 6 May 2017 15: 17 New
    0
    Damn, what a sensible article! This was probably written by the State Department agent to rock the boat ...
  42. The comment was deleted.
  43. Bf109e7
    Bf109e7 7 May 2017 14: 43 New
    0
    Well, the conclusion is which of the article? But the conclusion is this: only a closed economic system will allow Russia to develop and live. And now we have an open economic system (entrance yard)