Secret fairway commander Putin. Part of 2: Poll Results
The previous part of the "Secret Fairway" (http://topwar.ru/10030-sekretnyy-farvater-komandora-putina.html) was devoted to the burning question of the political course of the Commander. If the foreign policy aspect of this course is de facto clear for the majority - a strong and independent Russia as an independent player on the world stage, then the domestic political priorities of the current prime minister and the future president of the country are still less obvious. At the same time, many people ask this very topical question and find, from their point of view, the most correct answers. Since there are many answers, and all of them are different, an attempt was made to summarize various opinions by conducting a survey among the visitors to the Military Review website.
PURPOSE PURPOSE
Indeed, the first 11 years of going into the power of Vladimir Putin were never supported by any serious software (the so-called “Putin’s Plan” performed by United Russia is not counted). Impartial people literally had to look for grains of reliable information as to whose names the Commander still represents and protects?
The question, what is called, from the category of domestic netlenki. Suffice it to recall the classic of Soviet cinema, the film “Chapaev,” and the tricky question that inquisitive peasant walkers rolled to the legendary division commander: “Vasil Ivanovich, who will you be for the Bolsheviks, or the Communists?”. And so we, like those walkers, are gnawing all the same doubt: “Vladimir Vladimirovich, and who will you be for — the common people, or the oligarchic elite?”. Chapaev’s answer “I am for the International!” Threw the questioning peasants into a stupor. Putin’s diplomatic response, if he had sounded, “I am for United Russia!”, Would have seemed at least short-sighted today.
However, without an answer, it is clear that Putin, as a real and moderately cynical politician, works on two fronts at once, not forgetting neither about elite cream, nor national milk. In this case, our simple peasant question is transformed into a more complex structure: “If we take all Putin’s efforts to serve Russian society for 100%, then in what proportion, in your opinion, are they distributed between the interests of the domestic elite and the interests of the people?”. In this form, this question was proposed to the readers of the 1 of the “Secret Fairway” and supplemented with a request to give a percentage distribution by year, starting with 2000 and ending with 2016 (2012, 2014 and 2016 - forecast).
RESULTS OF RESPONSE: A FARMER IS ALMOST VID
The article received an 93 response, of which 20 contained the answer to the proposed question. At first glance, the number of answers suggests “Not enough will be!”, But if we take the general population of survey respondents as 93 site visitors who actually left their comments under the article, then the 21,5% result is not bad.
Website visitors expressed different opinions regarding the distribution of the Commander's efforts between the common people and the elite elite of Russian society. Some are inclined to see Putin as a 100% conductor of the interests of the elite club during all 11 years of his rule. Their point of view is consonant with the statement of the “aluminum king” of Russia, Oleg Deripaska, who called Putin a junior partner in building a new type of society (in my opinion, the Commander has long outgrown the junior partner and turned into a senior partner of the oligarchs). Others, on the contrary, perceive Putin, especially against the backdrop of the lawlessness of the era of Tsar Boris, as a defender of the interests of the common people, who managed to "stall" presumptuous oligarchs and channel their illegally privatized assets to the revival of Russia. The majority of the respondents realistically assess the internal policy of the Commander, finding in it features of both a popular and an oligarchic orientation.
To obtain a generalized picture of the survey results, two simple statistical procedures were used - the calculation of the arithmetic mean of the individual responses and the calculation of the average deviation from the arithmetic mean. If the average value makes it possible to catch a pattern and a tendency, then the average deviation makes it possible to estimate the measure of the spread of individual opinions and to determine the limits of change of the revealed patterns or trends. Let's start with patterns and trends.
The average values of the percentage distribution of Putin’s efforts over the years.
The graph shows that, according to survey participants, Putin began his presidential career in 2000, as Yeltsin’s successor, focusing mainly on the interests of the elite elite (59% for the elite against 41% for the people). This is understandable, because the successor is not a revolutionary by definition, but rather the opposite, a supporter of gradual changes. Sharp gestures at the time and in the situation when the Yeltsin “family” (Boris Yeltsin’s close circle and the oligarchs authorized by him) were in force and their team had not yet occupied key heights were fatally contraindicated to the commander. And not in the committee's habits publicly, to the whole wide world, to voice their plans and plans.
Nevertheless, the tendency to reorient Putin’s efforts from the oligarchic elite to the common people, according to the respondents, can be traced quite clearly. Qualitative changes, in their view, occurred in the 2010 area of the year, when Putin was in the shadow and served as prime minister. Then the orientation on the interests of the people for the first time exceeded the mark 50%. According to the survey respondents, in the 2016 year, the Commander’s orientation towards the interests of the people will almost twice exceed those of the oligarchic elite.
This is a general trend, based on averages. The real picture, as a rule, differs from the averaged data, therefore fluctuations are possible both in that and in the other direction. It's like in that joke: "The average temperature in the 36,60 hospital, and in particular this patient is close to zero." To determine the possible limits of fluctuations, the average deviations from the general trend were calculated.
Average deviations from the general trend of reorientation to the needs of the people over the years.
As can be seen from the graph, there are two extreme scenarios for the realization of the general trend of Putin’s growing orientation toward the interests of the people. Let's call them pessimistic and optimistic.
Pessimistic scenario (“Lower Deviation” chart), the general trend remains, but at a much more modest level. The start of Putin's presidential career was marked by a 19,7% share of the Commander's interest in the needs of the people; accordingly, the remaining 80,3% of his efforts were aimed at the interests of the elite. By the end of the first presidential term, the "people's" share had grown to 29,1%, during the second presidency of the Commander it stabilized and even dropped slightly to 27,8%. A further insignificant rise in Putin's efforts aimed at the needs of the people, according to the respondents, falls on the period of his prime minister's activity. According to expectations related to the possible return of Putin to the highest government post, his orientation towards the needs of the people will begin to grow at a relatively faster pace, reaching 2016% in 42,3. As you can see, according to the pessimistic scenario, the Commander in the period under review rules closer to the elite coast, although gradually, by a minuscule amount, shifts the steering wheel towards the people. If the pessimistic trend continues, then sometime in the 30s, Putin will fully turn to face the people.
Optimistic scenario (Upper Deviation graph), Putin initially started his career 62,3% concerned about the aspirations of the common people. Further - more, the internal political course of the Commander is increasingly moving away from the elite shores so that by 2016 it will almost come close (88,3%), and in the year 2020, it will moor at the People's Shore, will enter it after 20 summer swim and will triumphantly reunite with his electorate. Perhaps, he will sit down tiredly on the bank, bite the pile brought up, sniff with bread and salt and sparingly drop: "So I fulfilled Putin's plan!" The opposite, elite coast by that time will be empty and sad - who will be imprisoned, who will have time to emigrate to Foggy Albion, and the most conscientious oligarchs and other elite will swim, without yachts, to the opposite bank, repent before the people and willingly give up their bins and overseas accounts for the further revival and prosperity of Russia.
It is clear that the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios are the extreme, boundary frames of the fan of possible implementations of Putin’s domestic political course. But it's not for nothing that they say that one head is good, but twenty, as in our case, is better. Let us hope that the survey participants, for the time being, “raised” quite well the secret channel of the Commander, and that his real course takes place precisely at the alignment of buoys exposed by them. For a better understanding of the real domestic policy of Putin, it is necessary to keep in mind another factor - the Commander is too much in the long swim. During this time, changes not only the course itself, but also the coast, between which he maneuvers.
COAST FARVATERA
Elite beach
If we talk about the elite coast, then its inhabitants can be conditionally divided into three waves, successively replacing each other:
First wavelet's call them "Rattus bills of materials"(Nomenklatura rats) - pioneers, or rather, the pioneers of the elite coast, settled it in the 90-ies. They come from the Soviet party-economic nomenclature. Those who actually became the foremen of Gorbachev's perestroika, and calling things by their proper names, destroyed the Soviet Union and, on its ruins, engaged in rattling - the privatization of national wealth. Now, few have stayed out of this first wave - there are no others, and those are far away. Is that, roly-haired Chubais regularly spud super-profit beds, transplanting from one high chair to another. The most odious and arrogant rats pioneers gradually cleared the Commander, preparing the territory for their own elite.
Second wave inhabitants of the elite coast - "Cricetus democraticus"(Hamsters democratic). These are modern oligarchs, who have accumulated start-up capital in the muddy water of rampant democracy and legal mayhem of 90-x - the beginning of 2000-s and managed to find a common language with the Commander. Here are the magnificent seven of the richest of them as of 2011 year (according to the magazine "Forbes"):
1. Vladimir Lisin - $ 28.3 billion, a controlling stake in Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant.
2. Mikhail Prokhorov - $ 22.7 billion, President of the private investment fund ONEXIM Group, General Director of OJSC Polyus Gold, owner of large stakes in well-known raw material companies.
3. Alisher Usmanov - $ 19.9 billion, co-owner of the largest Russian metallurgical companies: Mikhailovsky and Lebedinsky mining and processing plants, Ural Steel, Oskol electrometallurgical plant.
4. Oleg Deripaska - $ 19 billion, owner of Basic Element.
5. Roman Abramovich - $ 17.1 billion, chairman of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Duma.
6. Alexey Mordashov - $ 17,05 billion, CEO and main owner of OJSC Severstal.
7. Suleiman Kerimov - $ 16,9 billion, member of the Federation Council from Dagestan, owner of the financial and industrial group "Nafta Moskva".
Evil tongues say that all of them (and not only them) are under the "roof" of the Commander. Meanwhile, Putin himself expresses himself in the spirit that the time has come to take the domestic oligarchs under tight control and put them in the stall of state interests (http://www.baltinfo.ru/2011/12/15/Putin-Nado-postavit-rossiiskikh -oligarkhov-v-stoilo-i-zastavit-rabotat-na-stranu-247842).
third wave - "Homo progressus"(Man Progressor). This is the elite of the future, belongs to the area of dreams Commander. According to Putin, it is, above all, the intellectual, creative and managerial cream of society, working not for their own pockets, but for the benefit of the whole society. From myself I would add - God forbid that modern "effective managers" like Chubais, Serdyukov and others like them did not fall into the elite pool of the future.
People's Beach
The people’s shore is also subject to change, based on a natural change of generations with different value orientations, morals, public views and attitudes.
10 years ago, the predominant population was “homo soveticus»(Soviet man) - people with deep roots of upbringing and living in the conditions and morality of a socialist society. People for whom public priority over personal was a natural way of life. It’s a paradox, but those who ruined the Soviet Union and started to engage in rats on its ruins also belonged to this generation.
Now agedHomo soveticus"Are becoming less and less common, and the basis of the national population is"Homo postsoveticus"(A post-Soviet person) - those who were born in a period of stagnation, when the first violin in society began to play"rattus bills of materials", And the Soviet society itself began to resemble the Kingdom of Curved Mirrors. The share of this generation fell difficult test - young people are faced with the domestic orgy of vague 90-ies, seasoned with extensive brainwashing in support of the Western way of life. Democracy, liberalism, the primacy of consumer values over the spiritual. It is good if family traditions and upbringing were able to protect them from this intervention, since society itself could no longer perform security functions.
It is believed that now it is easier to live for the people than in the 90s. But in modern Russian society, there are enough systemic problems behind the eyes. One of them is a total rampant of corruption that has hit all sectors and echelons of state power. His Majesty Officer is in charge now. He himself comfortably settled on the elite coast, and ordinary people from the opposite bank besieged bribes like wolves with red flags. People are forced to adapt to live according to the perverted rules dictated by parasites, and willy-nilly it is saturated with their rotten morality.
Let's look in the near future. Children "Homo postsoveticus"Will form the basis of the Russian society for years through 20, precisely when the Commander, according to our respondents, will fully face the people. What they will be by that time, our "Homo future", people of the future? The future is laid in the present. Total ignorance of your stories (at best, from parents) a poor educational system, ongoing informational interventions of the pro-Western lifestyle, orientation towards material consumption, advertising gum and brainwashing instead of spiritual development, the same corruption. These are far from all the “flattering” characteristics of the environment in which future citizens of Russia are growing.
END WOMB
Here we come to the question of questions - what is the ultimate goal of Putin, what type of society and state appears in the foggy distance of his channel? Smart textbooks and management guides strongly recommend that you first formulate a goal, and only then determine the best ways to achieve it, taking into account external and internal conditions. Now we are faced with the opposite task - on the basis of the reconstruction of the Commander's fairway and the realization of what are the banks along which he leads the galley of Russian power, to try to understand what awaits us at the end of the road? It is obvious that the USSR-2 cannot be built in the state in which Russian society is now. If only not to revive the dictatorial slogan: "We will drive the country into a happy future with an iron hand!" But, apparently, no one is going to drive them. It seems that the Commander has a different vision of the future structure of the Russian state.
Moses led the Jewish people in circles in the Sinai desert for 40 years before showing them the Promised Land. He played tricks for so long in order to completely get rid of the slavish feeling of humiliation in the new generations of Jews, so to speak, the Egyptian aftertaste. The Russian people have been led along the coast after the death of the USSR for 20 years already. The question is for what? To get rid of the feeling of belonging to a socialist society, so to speak, a Soviet aftertaste? To build a different type of society from scratch?
I would venture to suggest that it will be a kind of symbiosis of two shores, a kind of "Corporation Russia" (the super task is the transnational corporation "Eurasian Union"), where there will be a place for both national oligarchic elites and the common people. Why are corporations in business created? In order, firstly, to maximize the efficiency of its own activities and, secondly, to successfully resist competitors - other corporations. With competitors, everything is more or less clear - in the era of globalism, these are international transnational corporations and the financial backstage, which has a dollar printing press at its disposal. It is their interests that are protected by the armed forces of NATO member states and, first of all, of course, the United States. Now about internal efficiency. In order to be effective itself, a corporation must have a certain hierarchical structure - top management, line management, specialists and performers. If we project the strata of society onto the hierarchical structure of the corporation, then the following correspondence emerges: top management - the oligarchic and power elite, line management - the lower echelons of power and “effective managers” in the terminology of the Commander, specialists - “Homo progressus»In our terminology, the performers are other popular masses. An indirect confirmation of these plans can be found in V. V. Putin’s Ph.D. thesis. "Strategic planning of the reproduction of the mineral resource base of the region in the conditions of the formation of market relations". (My webpage). Quote: "Without the support of the state and the creation of large financial and industrial corporations ... it is impossible to compete on equal terms with the transnational corporations of the West."
If this is so, then the Commander is just working in the sweat of a rejuvenated person over the combination of two structures - state and corporate. Judging by the recent events related to the elections, this work is proceeding with difficulty. In particular, the oligarchs are creaking and grumbling, apparently unwilling to stand up in a public state-corporate "stall". Otherwise, how to explain the self-promotion of one of them, Mikhail Prokhorov, an independent presidential candidate? Anyway, now, on the eve of the presidential election, Putin is looking for support on the people’s shore, appealing to him when preparing his election program. For this, the Commander opened a special site (http://putin2012.ru), where everyone can leave their suggestions for inclusion in this document. It is possible that this is just a pre-election move, calculated on the effect of participation, but it’s a sin not to use it.
"FIVE KOPEEK" IN PRESIDENTIAL PROGRAM
The following is a list of items that, in my opinion, should be reflected in the presidential program of the Commander:
1. A proper assessment of the period of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent illegal privatization of the national property. The "heroes" and "foremen" of perestroika must be called by their proper names. And the main "perestroika", Mikhail Gorbachev, should be tried by the people's court.
2. Nationalization of the ruble, restoration of the sovereignty of the Russian currency, the return of the Stabilization Fund and the Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserve to the country. This topic was not covered in this article. The essence of the problem is that in the 90s, Yeltsin legalized (including through the Constitution) the entry of Russia into the global Jamaican financial system, according to which the ruble, as a national currency, lost its independence, was tied to a paper dollar playing the role world money, and through the dollar - to the US Federal Reserve System, behind which is the world financial behind the scenes. At the same time, according to the Jamaican system, Russia cannot, at its discretion, dispose of a part of its own Stabilization Fund and the Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserve. For those interested, I give links: Nikolay Starikov "Nationalization of the ruble - the path to freedom of Russia" (My webpage); Martynenko V.V. "Unknown policy of the Bank of Russia" (http://www.martynenko-info.ru/index1.html).
3. The principles of selecting a team of associates and associates. Putin does not hide the fact that when he came to power in 2000, he formed a rigid vertical of power, recruiting people to the team based on the principle of acquaintance and personal loyalty. Now this principle no longer works, the original team began to grow through second and third hands with incompetent people, concerned not with business, but with their own well-being. Hence - the appearance to the people of a galaxy of "pseudo-effective managers" such as A. Serdyukov. It is time to change the principles of selection of the presidential team, moving from the criterion of personal loyalty to the criteria of professionalism, competence and patriotism.
4. Fight against corruption and crime. This point is closely related to the previous one. Corruption has always been Russia's Achilles' heel. But its modern level has surpassed all conceivable limits. Regardless of what type of society Putin is going to build, it must have effective mechanisms for self-cleaning state structures from this infection.
5. Attention to the younger generation. Here we mean reforming the education system - enough to blindly copy samples of the Western education system alien to Russia. We have our own rich and positive experience. Once the whole world recognized the high level of training and erudition of our specialists. The second, no less important aspect is social education. Here it is necessary to radically shift the emphasis from consumer values to moral, ethical and patriotic values. It is necessary to put a solid barrier to the propaganda of the Western way of life, especially in the media, in particular, on TV.
If I were asked to briefly summarize the contents of the 2-x parts of the “Secret Fairway” and express my opinion about the Commander, then I would reply with the words of Franklin Roosevelt regarding Anastasio Samosy: “Even if the Commander and the son of a bitch, this is наш Son of a bitch!". Other наших unfortunately, there are no sons of bitches among the presidential candidates. Presidential elections are approaching. I hope this material will strengthen those who are confident in their innocence, and will encourage those in doubt to make the right decision. May God grant you all to make the right choice on March 4, 2012!
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