"Step to war? ..." (assessment of the current state of control over the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons on the example of the Middle East countries)
The current stage of development of international control over nuclear nonproliferation weapons characterized by increased attention on the part of the world community to the problem of the effectiveness of control, as well as to the ways and possibilities for its enhancement. Such a statement of the question is caused by the fact that in recent decades the facts of concealment of the creation and development of military nuclear programs have been revealed. Thus, during the war in the Persian Gulf 1991 of the year in Iraq, an underground nuclear weapons production program was discovered; in Iran, the creation of weapons of mass destruction in South Africa created nuclear weapons; in the DPRK, undeclared military nuclear activities are conducted. The central role in exercising control over the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons belongs to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), so the Agency’s activities — its strengths and weaknesses — attracted the attention of various status and level of importance of institutions, departments, research and development groups of almost all states - Members of the Organization. At the present stage, further measures to strengthen and improve control and expand its scope of application are being developed both within the framework of the IAEA itself and in collaboration with the above-mentioned institutions. The paper discusses the modern problems of control over the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in historical terms, it highlights and explores historical stages of the creation and functioning of an international regime for controlling non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The study of the problems of control over the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons by referring to the history of its creation and development seems quite relevant right now.
IAEA - an international organization to develop cooperation in the field of peaceful uses of atomic energy. Founded in 1957 year. The headquarters is located in Vienna (International Vienna Center). The Agency was created as an independent intergovernmental organization in the UN system, and with the advent of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, its work took on special significance, since the NPT made it mandatory for each State party to conclude an agreement on safeguards with the IAEA. The goal of the Agency’s work in the country is to state that work in the peaceful nuclear field does not switch to military objectives. The state, signing, such an agreement, as it were, guarantees that it does not conduct studies of a military orientation, therefore this document is called the safeguards agreement. At the same time, the IAEA is a purely technical body. It can not give a political assessment of the activities of a state. The IAEA does not have the right to speculate - the Agency works only with present facts, basing its findings solely on a tangible result of inspections. The IAEA safeguards system cannot physically prevent the diversion of nuclear material from peaceful to military purposes, but only makes it possible to detect the diversion of safeguarded material or the misuse of a secured facility and initiate consideration of such facts at the UN. At the same time, the conclusions of the Agency are extremely cautious and correct.
The functions of the Agency include:
encouraging research and development on the peaceful uses of atomic energy;
encouraging the exchange of scientific advances and methods;
formation and application of a system of guarantees that civilian nuclear programs and developments will not be used for military purposes
In the 1963 year, when only four states had nuclear arsenals, the United States government predicted that over the coming decade there would be from 15 to 25 nuclear weapon states; other states predicted that this number could even increase to 50. As of 2004, the year is known that only eight states have nuclear arsenals. A strong non-proliferation regime — embodied by the IAEA and the NPT Treaty — helped dramatically slow down the assumed proliferation rates.
The unofficial name of the group of countries possessing nuclear weapons is “Nuclear Club”. It includes the United States (with 1945), Russia (originally the Soviet Union: with 1949), Great Britain (1952), France (1960), China (1964), India (1974), Pakistan (1998) and the DPRK (2006). The United States, Russia, Britain, France and China are the nuclear five - that is, the states that are considered to be nuclear powers under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The remaining countries possessing nuclear weapons are called unofficial nuclear powers. Israel does not comment on information about the presence of nuclear weapons, but, according to some experts, it has an arsenal of 200 charges (according to estimates of former US President Jimmy Carter). In addition, in the territory of several states that are members of NATO, there are US nuclear weapons. In certain circumstances, these countries can use it. South Africa had a small nuclear arsenal, but all six collected nuclear warheads were voluntarily destroyed. South Africa is believed to have conducted nuclear tests near Bouvet Island in 1979. South Africa is the only country that independently developed nuclear weapons and voluntarily abandoned them. According to many experts, some countries that do not possess nuclear weapons are able to create them within a short time after a political decision is taken. These are Germany, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, the Netherlands, possibly also Belgium, Australia and Sweden. Brazil and Argentina were conducting military nuclear programs, but by the middle of the 90s. they were folded for various reasons. Over the years, Libya, Iraq, South Korea, Taiwan, Syria, and now Iran were also suspected of having military nuclear programs.
A brief overview of the use of nuclear weapons:
The United States carried out the first ever nuclear explosion with a capacity of 20 kilotons 16 July 1945. 6 and 9 August 1945 nuclear bombs were dropped, respectively, on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The first thermonuclear test (the first in history) was conducted on October 31 1951 on the Bikini Atoll.
The USSR tested its first nuclear device with a 22 kiloton 29 August 1949, at the Semipalatinsk test site. The first thermonuclear test - there 12 August 1953 of the year.
The UK produced the first surface nuclear explosion with a capacity of about 25 kilotons 3 of October 1952 of the year in the area of the Monte-Bello Islands (north-west of Australia). Thermonuclear Test - 15 May 1957 on Christmas Island in Polynesia.
France conducted ground tests of a nuclear charge with a power of 20 kilotons of February 13 1960 of the year in the Regangan oasis in Algeria. Thermonuclear test - 24 August 1968, the atoll Mururoa.
China detonated 20 kiloton 16 october 1964 nuclear bomb near Lake Lobnor. The 17 June 1967 thermonuclear bomb was also tested there. [2]
Note: Data for the USA and Russia for 2002 — 2009. include only ammunition on deployed strategic carriers; Both states also have a significant number of tactical nuclear weapons that are difficult to assess. 2009 UK data for the year include the number of warheads ready for use; the total number of blocks, taking into account the reserve units, is “up to 225” units. [1]
The number of nuclear warheads in the US and the USSR / Russia (including tactical nuclear weapons)
According to the treaty signed in May of 2002, the United States and Russia should reduce their nuclear arsenals by two thirds to the level of 31 — 2012 of warheads on each side by 1700 in January of 2200. 9 countries possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel (supposedly) and North Korea. Of these, only five countries have signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (USA, Russia, United Kingdom, France and China). The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons was approved by the UN General Assembly 12 on June 1968, open for signing on July 1 on 1968 in Moscow, Washington and London. The Treaty entered into force on March 5 1970 after depositing instruments of ratification.
Ratified by the USSR 24 November 1969. Parties to the Treaty are 190 states. Outside the NPT remain India, Pakistan, Israel. DPRK announced its withdrawal from the NPT. [1]
After the end of the Cold War, the American concept of counter-proliferation has become a new concept of limited nuclear war. It was first announced in December 1993 by US Secretary of Defense Less Aspen.
According to this theory, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is in crisis and it is impossible to stop the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction through diplomacy. In critical cases, the United States must deliver disarming strikes on nuclear facilities of “dangerous regimes”. In November, 1997 in America adopted presidential directive No. 60, in which the US armed forces were tasked to be ready to strike at facilities for the production and storage of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. In 2002, the counter-proliferation strategy became part of the US National Security Strategy.
Currently, the counter-proliferation strategy includes 5 options for action:
“Buyout” of a nuclear program from a potentially dangerous state;
establishing control over nuclear facilities of “problem” (from the US point of view) countries;
partial recognition of the nuclear status of the violator in exchange for his compliance with certain agreements;
power threats;
impact on the largest uranium mining companies and countries supplying uranium raw materials.
In any case, the United States reserves the right to use force, which is fraught with the beginning of a military conflict. As part of the counter-proliferation strategy in America, the possibility of destroying the nuclear facilities of countries such as Iraq, Iran or about establishing its control over their nuclear facilities is being discussed.
To do this, consider the history of the development of nuclear programs in these countries:
Iraq's nuclear program
Its beginning is the Iraqi nuclear program since 1959, on August 17, the USSR and Iraq signed an agreement that
provided for exclusively peaceful purposes, providing technical assistance to Baghdad in the construction of a small research reactor, isotope laboratory, as well as in conducting geological exploration for radioactive ores and in personnel training. In 1968 in the Thuvaity Desert, not far from the capital of Iraq, the research reactor IRT-2000 (power 2 MW) was launched. In April 1975 Iraqi Vice President Saddam Hussein arrived in Moscow with the aim of obtaining a more advanced nuclear reactor. Moscow agreed on the condition that the project be held under the control of the IAEA, which categorically did not suit Iraq.
Cooperation with France:
Six months later, in France, in the framework of the official visit, Saddam Hussein quickly and easily agreed with French Prime Minister Jacques Chirac about what he could not agree in April with Moscow. In November, an agreement was concluded with the following conditions:
delivery of powerful reactor "Ozirak"
supply of research laboratory "Izis"
one-time supply of annual fuel supply for the reactor (in the amount of 72 kg of uranium enriched to 93%).
the project is carried out without IAEA supervision
The transaction amount is about 3 billion dollars.
Such an agreement allowed Iraq to get everything needed to make several bombs, with a power similar to Hiroshima.
1976 - Baghdad has contracted with Italy for the purchase of “hot cells” suitable for separating plutonium from reactor fuel elements.
The Franco-Italian combination made it possible to create a plutonium bomb for several years.
The 1979 nuclear reactor for Iraq was built and delivered to the port of La Sien-sur-Mer near Toulon to be sent by the Iraqi ship to Basra, but in
On the night of April 7, the Israeli Mossad, using their ten agents, blew up a transport ship in the port and the reactor was destroyed. The French government has announced that it will supply Iraq with a new reactor.
1980 - the second Osirak reactor was safely delivered to Iraq and located in the Thuvaith Desert, where it was launched. The IAEA Commission visited the nuclear center in the Thuvaity desert, but did not find violations of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, but Israel had its own opinion on 1980 that Baghdad did not violate the nuclear non-proliferation regime and 29 on October . 1980 Jun7 in 1981 bombed the nuclear center of Iraq. Iraq’s nuclear program has been halted.
Iran's nuclear program
Iran’s nuclear program began in 1967, when the United States transferred the Shah of Iran to Mohammed Reza Pahlavi an atomic reactor with a capacity of 5 MW. Then Germany and France provided technological assistance in the construction of reactors. Iran signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1968 and ratified it in 1970.
1974 - The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (AEOI) was created, which developed a plan for the construction of 23 nuclear power units worth about $ 30 billion with the support of the United States and Western European countries. The program was designed for 25 years. In the middle of this year, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi made a public statement: “Iran will have nuclear weapons, no doubt, sooner than some believe” [6] - however, under US pressure, he later disavowed this statement.
In the same year, Iran bought 4 nuclear reactors - two in France and two in Germany.
1977 - FDR has supplied Tehran with another 4 reactor.
1978 - Iran gets an American research reactor with a capacity of 5 MW.
Cooperation with Iran in the field of nuclear energy began and Argentina. West Germany has begun construction of two NPP units at Bushehr.
1979 - the Islamic revolution has taken place in the country, the Shah has been overthrown, the new Iranian government has abandoned the nuclear power plant construction program. Not only foreign specialists left the country, but also a large number of Iranians who participated in the nuclear project.
A few years later, when the situation in the country stabilized, the Iranian leadership resumed the implementation of the nuclear program. With the help of China, a training and research center with a heavy-water research reactor was established in Isfahan, and uranium ore mining continued. At the same time, Iran was negotiating the purchase of uranium enrichment technologies and the production of heavy water with companies in Switzerland and Germany. Iranian physicists visited the National Institute of Nuclear Physics and High Energy Physics in Amsterdam and the Petten Nuclear Center in the Netherlands.
1992 - an agreement on cooperation in the peaceful uses of atomic energy has been concluded between Russia and Iran, providing for a number of areas: the use of nuclear technologies in medicine, agriculture and industry, basic research in the field of nuclear physics, etc.
1995 - Russia has signed an agreement to complete the construction of the first unit of the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
The Russian specialists of Atomstroyexport conducted an analysis of the state of affairs, as a result of which a decision was made about the possibility of using building structures and equipment left on the site after the departure of the German contractor from Iran. The integration of various types of equipment required, however, a huge amount of additional research, design and construction works.
Atomstroyexport completed the installation of equipment at nuclear power plants at the beginning of 2007. The delivery of fuel elements to nuclear power plants from Russia took place on 2006. 1995 - The United States unilaterally imposed trade and economic sanctions against Iran, and after signing the memorandum of Gore-Chernomyrdin, Russia froze deliveries of military equipment to Iran. The United States accuses Iran of secretly conducting work on the creation of nuclear weapons. Back in 2002, US President George W. Bush ranked Iran among the “axis of evil” countries that finance terrorists and seek to seize nuclear weapons. The United States is trying to achieve an international isolation of Iran in order to prevent the country from creating a nuclear bomb. However, US efforts are facing opposition from France, Germany and the UK, as well as Russia, which is associated with Iran with contracts for the supply of military equipment and the construction of a nuclear power plant in Bushehr.
In recent months, one of the key problems of international politics is related to Iran’s nuclear program. The United States suspects Iran of covertly developing nuclear weapons and is ready to strike at its nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Iran accuses the United States of pursuing a “double standard” policy, assures the peaceful focus of its nuclear program, but seeks to create a full nuclear fuel cycle.
Leading European countries: Great Britain, Germany and France - offer Iran to completely stop uranium enrichment in exchange for peaceful nuclear technologies and the expansion of economic relations with the EU. [5]
9 in November, the IAEA published a report on the Iranian nuclear program, according to which the program is of an exclusively military nature and aimed at creating weapons of mass destruction. The IAEA presented a satellite image of nuclear facilities as evidence of the development of a military program in Iran.
The report said that Iran has been conducting extensive research and testing since 2003, which can be associated exclusively with the development of nuclear explosive devices. But, despite the fact that more and more evidence is being provided for the existence of nuclear weapons in Iran, the leadership of this country continues to deny the work on creating weapons of mass destruction.
Is there a way out of this problem, which has acquired an international character and has a direct impact on the level of international security of countries?
With Iraq and Libya, everything is already in full openwork, these countries have received from the West a vivid lesson on human rights with the help of death-carrying American and NATO bombs. Thousands of dead and wounded, complete chaos and the redistribution of national wealth in favor of Western "democracies." But at the same time, the US military action against Iraq, which led to the change of the regime of Saddam Hussein, caused concern of the leadership of a number of countries in the Near and Middle East. As a result, the political elites of these states began to approve of the prospect of the emergence of nuclear weapons in their countries as a reliable means of protection against any encroachment from the outside, as huge energy resources are concentrated here, without the use of which the very existence of the US and European economies becomes impossible. The Iranian leadership is in a difficult situation. On the one hand, Iran legally creates its own atomic energy. He is a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and has signed an Additional Protocol to it from 1997, allowing the introduction of IAEA safeguards. On the other hand, Iran is creating an almost complete closed nuclear fuel cycle, some of the objects of which can be used to develop weapons-grade nuclear materials. Iran’s leadership believes that it has the right to acquire and develop enrichment technologies for nuclear materials, if the relevant production facilities are under the control of the IAEA. Indeed, the NPT allows this (the DPRK, which was a member of the NPT and, while being in the Treaty, secretly created the scientific and technical prerequisites for developing nuclear weapons, and then came out of them, is alarming for the world community). Another reason for creating a complete closed nuclear fuel cycle, in the opinion of the Iranian authorities, is the need to ensure reliable fuel supply to its own nuclear power plants. By investing huge financial resources in nuclear energy, the country's leadership does not want to depend on fuel suppliers. Given the complex relationship of Iran with a number of countries, one cannot exclude the use of this factor to exert pressure on the country's leadership. Currently, the world community is not ready to provide Iran with convincing guarantees of uninterrupted supply of nuclear power to its nuclear power plants at affordable prices. At the same time, the very need to create a strong nuclear power industry is questioned by many experts because of the considerable reserves of oil and natural gas. The United States plays a significant role in solving the Iranian nuclear issue. Without a settlement of US-Iranian relations and the provision of non-aggression pledges to Iran by the United States, progress on this issue is hardly possible. Iran cannot accept the EU’s proposals and eliminate a number of key links in the nuclear fuel cycle if the possibility of the use of force by the US remains. In this case, the leadership of Iran, apparently, will be forced to take a course on creating its own nuclear weapons to preserve sovereignty.
The position of the United States on this issue is clearly hopeless and does not allow the search for mutual compromises. But there is a way out of this situation:
- Iran’s acceptance of EU proposals for the complete cessation of work on uranium enrichment and plutonium accumulation in exchange for peaceful nuclear technologies and expansion of economic relations with European countries;
- Iran’s ratification of the Additional Protocol to the NPT (1997) and the cessation of plutonium accumulation;
- Iran’s cessation of all types of support to terrorist organizations and the beginning of the normalization of relations with Israel;
- the settlement of US-Iranian relations and the provision of US guarantees of non-aggression against Iran;
- providing Russia with guaranteed supplies of reactor fuel at fixed, lowest prices, as well as export of spent nuclear fuel to its territory.
All this will lead to a radical improvement in the situation in the Middle East and to economic well-being.
After assessing the current state of control over the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons by media sources, we came to the conclusion that since the creation of nuclear weapons, they are monitored for nonproliferation by the IAEA, with the consent of the nuclear weapon states, and tacit control by the US. We believe that the reason for this policy of the United States is to establish control over the natural resources (oil, gas) of the countries of the Middle East, since the US economy is completely dependent on the natural resources of these countries.
REFERENCES
Materials and articles from Internet sites
1.MAGATE and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons - material from Wikipedia
2. Security Analysis and Assessment Tools (article)
3. The search for the atomic bomb in Iraq, Iran and North Korea is in vain (article)
4. Iraq’s nuclear program - Wikipedia entry
5. On Iran will strike from several sides- (article)
6. Iran's Nuclear Dossier and International Relations (article)
7. Nuclear club (article)
8. Unofficial nuclear powers of Europe
9. Manhattan Project (article)
Information