Military Review

Sergey Glazyev: Seven Scenarios for Russia

50
Sergey Glazyev: Seven Scenarios for RussiaAcademician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergei Glazyev believes that Russia cannot continue to go with the flow in conditions when two geo-economic centers - the United States and China - are waging a fierce struggle for global leadership.


“Our economic policy is passive. Not having our own strategy, we give up the initiative to develop our economic space to foreigners. They dominate the financial market and manipulate it, dominate the market of machinery and equipment, consumer durable goods, ”says Glazyev.

The interests of foreign investors are subject to monetary policy. According to him, the issue of rubles is conducted mainly for the purchase of foreign currency.

This means that the evolution of our economy is directed by external forces that are interested in consuming Russian natural resources and marketing their goods, Glazyev notes.

“The initiative in our financial and economic orientation is still owned by“ Western partners ”- the United States and the European Union. But as a result of the sanctions they introduced, the initiative gradually passes to the Chinese comrades, ”said Glazyev.

At the same time, the Russian ruling elite takes a wait-and-see attitude: “The comprador oligarchy expects the abolition of Western sanctions, and manufacturing enterprises are trying to get through to Chinese financing and the market.”

Seven scenarios for Russia

Preserving such a situation of passive waiting “between two fires”, more precisely, the two centers of the world economy, is very dangerous. There is a risk that, with a passive policy, Russia can again become a “bargaining chip” and “an object of aggression by the competing world powers,” as has already happened many times in our stories: in 1812, 1853 – 1856, 1905, 1914 – 1922, 1941 – 1945.

With theses about what to do in this situation, Glazyev spoke at a seminar of the Izborsk club. He elaborated and commented on his report theses for Gazety.Ru.

According to Glazyev, in the next decade, seven scenarios of changes in Russia's geo-economic position in the world are possible as a result of the current shift in technological and world economic structures.

Partnership for three: USA, Russia and China

This is the most positive and, unfortunately, the least likely scenario associated with the cessation of American aggression, the US joining the strategic partnership of Russia and China.

This implies the abolition of anti-Russian sanctions and the “joint responsibility of the great powers for the preservation of peace in the process of global structural changes”.

According to Glazyev, the arrival of US President Trump to the summit of heads of state participating in the Economic Belt of the Great Silk Road initiative in Beijing this May may be a criterion for the realism of this option. This is the most comfortable for Russia, but unstable option, it is fraught with the fact that with the passive position of Russia, events can move into the rut of the next, most negative scenario.

Isolation and intervention

This scenario can be realized if the American leadership, instead of the current confrontational line, returns to the previous policy of engaging the PRC in economic symbiosis with the United States — the so-called “chimerica” (Chimerica — from China + America).

If we assume that highly influential pro-American forces take the upper hand in China, Russia may find itself in complete isolation, losing both foreign exchange reserves and foreign markets. If the current economic policy is maintained, this will entail a significant drop in the standard of living and will create a threat to Eurasian integration.

“This turn of events will be accompanied by an increase in American aggression and the transfer of the hybrid war they are leading to the territory of the EAEU with a view to dividing it into spheres of influence between the old and new centers of the world economy (that is, between the US and China),” Glazyev said.

Isolation and mobilization

The essence of this scenario is that “the research and production, military-technical, natural-resource and intellectual-spiritual potential still existing in Russia” will allow the country to survive and even develop on the basis of the formation of a mobilization version of the economy.

“However, the current economic management system is fundamentally incapable of doing this. This will require new personnel both in government and in business, ”warns Glazyev.

American colonization

Prerequisites for such a scenario - the US is trying to maintain global dominance by unleashing a hybrid war for control of its economic periphery, the key element of which the American ruling elite considers Russia. The United States subordinates the Russian economy to its influence through control over monetary policy and the financial market; the rise of the Chinese economy is gradually encompassing adjacent regions and industries of neighboring countries.

This is how Glazyev represents the realization of this scenario: in the conditions of increasing socio-economic difficulties in Russia, the dominance of pro-American forces in domestic politics is restored. In order to lift the sanctions, concessions are being made to pressure from the West. This provokes a sharp increase in American aggression, including the organization of a "color revolution" and the establishment of a puppet regime, as it was in 1991 and 1993.

With his hands, nuclear disarmament and the final disintegration of the post-Soviet space is carried out. The Russian economy is being privatized by US-European transnational companies, and Central Asia is becoming a dominant zone of China.

Glazyev notes that the change of administration in the United States has given rise to hopes for an end to anti-Russian aggression. “First of all, the Russian ruling elite hopes for the abolition of economic sanctions. Apparently, certain changes in relation to Russia in Washington will occur. In any case, the value of subjective factors associated with personal accounts of people who left the political scene will decrease in relation to the Russian leadership and Ukraine, ”Glazyev said, adding that it is hardly possible to write off the objective factors of American aggressiveness.

There is the opposite scenario for the geo-economic vector of colonization.

Chinese protectorate

If Russia does not move to the strategic planning of economic development based on its own sources of credit, then the real content of the "strategic partnership with the PRC" will be to subordinate the evolution of the Russian economy to the growth interests of China, Glazyev said.

In this case, thanks to the Chinese financing, which engineers and designers dream of, joint programs of pairing the EAEU and the new Silk Road doctrine are being implemented.

“Massive Chinese investments are directed to the development of the Russian fuel and energy, agro-industrial and transport complexes, which are shifted to the needs of the Chinese market. The MIC is being developed in accordance with the objectives of external protection in the interests of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The remnants of the potential of the civilian high-tech industry are being mastered by joint Chinese-Russian enterprises. Russia maintains political sovereignty and equal military-political partnership with the PRC, ”predicts Glazyev.

Now China is winning economic competition with the United States, but to successfully counter American aggression, the Chinese economy needs a Russian raw material and energy base, not to mention a military-industrial complex.

And in this scenario, the Russian economy "becomes the Chinese periphery."

A set of disparate enclaves

Glazyev also considers the status quo scenario. In this case, the economy of Russia and the entire Eurasian Union "will hardly withstand the test of breaking the opposing pressure from the United States and China, between the old and the new centers of the global economy."

In the end, the Russian economy, in this scenario, will become a set of weakly interconnected enclaves serving different segments of the world market.

This will create prerequisites for destabilization of the political situation and the transition to the “American colonization” option.

Up to 10% GDP growth

Finally, Glazyev is considering the most desirable scenario for Russia, supported by impressions of a recent trip to Beijing. In this case, Russia will have to strain in order to move to a strategy of advanced development through the forced creation of new technological and production institutions of the new world economy. This is a scenario for the successful implementation of the initiative to create the Great Eurasian Partnership put forward by President Putin. Based on the EAEU and the SCO member countries.

In this case, Russia and the EEU could claim to fully participate in the new center of the world economic system, that is, to keep up with China. Currently, the EEU accounts for all 3,5% of world GDP and 2,8% of international trade.

It is possible to compensate for the relatively small weight of the EAEU in the world economy only within the framework of the external contour of Eurasian integration, building preferential trade and economic cooperation with the rapidly growing countries of Eurasia - China, India, the countries of Indochina, the Middle East, Glazyev is sure.

The first agreement on the creation of such a regime in the format of a free trade zone (FTA) has already been concluded with Vietnam. There is a study of agreements on the FTA of the Eurasian Union with Egypt, India and Israel. Other potential partners, according to Glazyev, are South Korea, Iran, Syria, Indonesia.

The implementation of the initiative of the heads of Russia and China to link two transcontinental integration initiatives - the EAEU and the Silk Road - opens up opportunities for sustainable economic development of Eurasia. These initiatives can be organically combined, complementing and multiplying the integration effect of each of them.

In this scenario, predicts Glazyev, the growth rate of the Russian economy reaches maximum values ​​- up to 10% annual GDP growth and 20% investment growth.

In this case, the creation of a “broad anti-war coalition led by Russia, China and India” will also be required.

This scenario implies "a significant renewal of the Russian ruling elite." And the “early introduction of the institutions of the world economic structure that have proved their effectiveness in China”.

In this regard, the academician proposes to implement 12 recommendations for the creation in Russia of a modern economic development management system. But this is a separate topic for publication.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.km.ru/economics/2017/02/27/ekonomika-i-finansy/796412-sem-stsenariev-dlya-rossii
50 comments
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  1. CYBERNINJA
    CYBERNINJA 5 March 2017 15: 12
    +6
    Glazyev forgot the Russian proverb:
    Two fight, the third do not go.
    And if you climb, then no one would guess that you are participating there.
    1. Was mammoth
      Was mammoth 5 March 2017 20: 34
      +9
      There is also a proverb, eastern:
      "When two horses fight, the donkey that is caught between them gets the most."
      Who is anyone to guess without a problem? wink
      1. vladimirZ
        vladimirZ 6 March 2017 06: 02
        10
        Russia's current economic situation will inevitably end in Russia's defeat in rivalry with world economic development leaders in the United States and China.
        And everyone perfectly understands this, only the ruling elite, who is satisfied with the current status quo - a raw materials appendage, and stuffing their own pockets by the momentary robbery of Russia, do not want to understand.
        Nobody knows how long the current situation will last, but the fact that it will end in defeat according to the above scenarios of academician S. Glazyev is a predictable certainty.
        Economically weak states with unprecedented reserves of raw materials and natural resources in the world cannot remain integral and sovereign.
        1. Cat man null
          Cat man null 6 March 2017 06: 09
          +1
          Quote: vladimirZ
          Nobody knows how long the current situation will last, but the fact that it will end in defeat according to the above scenarios of academician S. Glazyev is inevitable

          - here get drunk with kerosene they read all the Glazyesonov’s, and begin ... to slander ... ugh negative
          - vladimirZ, Are you still tired of repeating monotonously the same mantra: # all bad_and_ all-wise and #necessary to change_system? wink
          1. Ingvar 72
            Ingvar 72 6 March 2017 07: 21
            +5
            Quote: Cat Man Null
            # all bad and all four and # need change system?

            Are you satisfied with the economic policy of our government? belay
            1. Cat man null
              Cat man null 6 March 2017 07: 26
              +2
              Quote: Ingvar 72
              Are you satisfied with the economic policy of our government?

              - neither yes nor no. I don’t understand her enough to say something confidently.
              - while I certainly do not like the constant whining of Glazyev, Katasonov, ..., and joined them vladimirZ.

              You have motivated objections? wink
              1. Ingvar 72
                Ingvar 72 6 March 2017 07: 28
                +4
                Quote: Cat Man Null
                Do you have a motivated objection?

                Of course -
                Quote: Cat Man Null
                - neither yes nor no. I don't understand herto say something confidently.

                How can one accuse an opponent of nagging without understanding the subject? belay
                1. Cat man null
                  Cat man null 6 March 2017 07: 51
                  +1
                  Quote: Ingvar 72
                  How can one accuse an opponent of nagging without understanding the subject?

                  - ask the question so that it can be understood wink
                  - “subject” - what kind of “subject” do you think I do not understand?
                  - What does the “subject” have to do with the nagging of the individuals I have listed ...?

                  Thank you yes
                  1. Ingvar 72
                    Ingvar 72 6 March 2017 08: 14
                    +2
                    Quote: Cat Man Null
                    - “subject” - what kind of “subject” do you think I do not understand

                    Monday, morning is hard to see! laughing You yourself wrote that the economic policies of our government are not well understood.
                    And nagging is your nagging in your interpretation, but from my point of view it is justified criticism.
                    On the "subject" - what was the need to sell shares of Rosneft, and in installments provided by VTB? The company is not profitable? Wouldn’t it be easier to sell our beloved treasuries with you, and much less profitable than the shares of Rosneft?
                    1. Cat man null
                      Cat man null 6 March 2017 08: 26
                      +1
                      Quote: Ingvar 72
                      And whining is in your interpretations it is a whining, but from my point of view it is justified criticism ...

                      “Are you talking about this or something?”

                      Quote: vladimirZ
                      The current economic condition of Russia will inevitably end in the defeat of Russia ...

                      - and where is the criticism here? Especially "reasonable"?
                      - And where does the economic policy of the Russian government?
                      - right, nothing to do with it ... and there is no criticism, but there is pure whining request

                      He wrote about Rosneft more than once, in short - it is a "package" and a very political deal, and the loot is somewhere in the last place ... although it, of course, is not out of place.

                      By the way, this has nothing to do with the whining of your colleague laughing
                      1. vladimirZ
                        vladimirZ 6 March 2017 08: 41
                        +5
                        "Happy ignorant in their ignorance!" - A soft wording about people who know little, such as Cat Man Null, whose minds are littered with liberal media, and unable to think on their own, only troll other people's comments.
                        Watch at least a video of people more enlightened in this matter, and constantly discussed on the Red Line channel.
                      2. St Petrov
                        St Petrov 6 March 2017 11: 07
                        0
                        vladimirZ looked vidyushki on the Internet and became the guru of economic realities

                        Watch at least a video of more enlightened people


                        well this edge is simple. look at the video and become as smart as me.

                        Maybe Glazyev and Panarin or Katasonov can give some kind of expert assessments - but when characters far from economics listen to their theses - and then they scream with these theses about everything on the Internet - without a database or information - it looks funny.

                        Well, let's trump your “own” knowledge - and lay out some other video with some kind of expert - who can talk on the video - and to give growth to the economy when becoming a position is far from a fact.

                        So then on the video and Kudrin will talk about how he can achieve economic growth at 10% under certain conditions

                        PS I believe in Glazyev. But my faith is purely at the level of faith - and to check in fact what he is talking about is not a fact of what happens

                        On paper and with Medvedev everything is smooth. And in theory, Ostap should have a spaceport in that place, but in the end the Spaceport was built under the control of Rogozin laughing This uncle who is so disliked by video experts in a country where, according to the characters, there is no development

                        vladimirZ generally lives somewhere in communism and from the world of capitalism he abstracted himself and sat on the VO forum

                        .
                      3. levfuks
                        levfuks 7 March 2017 18: 01
                        0
                        I have written about Rosneft more than once, in short - this is a "package" and very political deal

                        The “scheme” is already known to all interested and is not at all like privatization. And people were told - "... privatization ... the money arrived in full ..." But this is not entirely true. Cheated?
        2. CYBERNINJA
          CYBERNINJA 6 March 2017 06: 20
          0
          Glazyev's whining has already been going on since the deputies got into it
          1. levfuks
            levfuks 7 March 2017 17: 49
            0
            That's what academics are, aching and aching! No to pooryakat and throw caps!
            The man outlined the likely options, identified the optimal (in his opinion) way. I am sure that he can justify his every word, unlike the vast majority of local experts.
            Someone does not understand, someone is not happy, someone believes, someone does not believe. And while not any arguments. Only labels have time to stick.
      2. CYBERNINJA
        CYBERNINJA 6 March 2017 06: 18
        0
        as I understand it, they shared a donkey, these two zoophile horses, horses do not excite them wassat
  2. antivirus
    antivirus 5 March 2017 16: 58
    +6
    Maintaining such a situation of passive expectation “between two fires”,
    - You’ll chase after two hares and you’ll find yourself between two fires.
    you need to milk your cow. rather than hunting.
  3. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 5 March 2017 17: 04
    +7
    Something tells me that I’ll have to choose from only two “scenarios”: "American colonization" and "Chinese protectorate" .... Putin, alas, is not forever ....
    1. vadsonen
      vadsonen 6 March 2017 16: 02
      +1
      Putin, speak?
      Glazyev apparently forgot whom he serves as an adviser. What kind of economy? What is the development? Give more pipes! For the century of that same Putin, oil / gas is enough.
  4. Semurg
    Semurg 5 March 2017 17: 41
    +1
    Glazyev, an academic from economics, was engaged in economics live or purely a theorist in life. His last version of conjugation of the Silk Road and the EAEC is trying to implement the NAS, though it seems that everything will end with the supply of resources to China in exchange for consumer goods and equipment, unless of course China itself bursts from competition with the United States.
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 6 March 2017 13: 04
      +2
      Semurg

      Did you offer Glazyev to bargain the sausages on the nearest corner?

      Academicians give advice summarizing the experience of previous generations. These are their direct responsibilities.
  5. vlad007
    vlad007 5 March 2017 20: 37
    +4
    1. China now has many problems and the main one is the low population growth, which was limited until the 2016 of the year - there are no free workers. In 2016, they abolished the birth control, but the effect will come in years through 10-15.
    2. The scenario "Growth of 10% of GDP" is described very vaguely, more precisely not described - "continued in the next series."
    3. All scenarios are almost tied to the arrival of investments - the difference is where it comes from - from the east, west or elsewhere. There is only one plot - just to do nothing ourselves! And where did Stalin take the investment? After all, entire industries have actually been built.
    1. Reptiloid
      Reptiloid 6 March 2017 04: 22
      0
      Quote: vlad007
      1. China now has many problems, and the main one is the low population growth, which was limited until 2016 - there are no free workers. In 2016, they abolished the birth control, but the effect will come in 10-15 years ..

      I don’t think that the effect of the abolition of birth control will begin in 10-12 years. Young Chinese have already felt how good it is to reduce their worries. Traditionally, the Chinese always take care of the elders. And China has always been known for its centenarians, their %%% will continue to increase .----- population growth in a large part is due to them
    2. Stanislas
      Stanislas 6 March 2017 08: 00
      0
      Quote: vlad007
      China now has many problems, and the main one is the low population growth, which was limited until 2016 - there are no free workers
      Unclear. What does free hands mean? In terms of population, China today does not reach a bit to one and a half billion. There are enough working hands there. In the USSR it was about 5 times less; Civil and World War II also created demographic distortions in our country towards the aging of the nation, like "family planning" in China, but there were hands on breakthrough projects.
  6. den-protector
    den-protector 5 March 2017 21: 07
    +4
    But is Glazyev who in the system of the so-called Russian "elite"? Who listens to him at all, and what are his recommendations and forecasts influencing? What is known about him? He’s kind of a statesman-patriot and an adviser to the Guarantor (I don’t know the current one or the former) ... Somehow at VO I saw an old group photo of the 80s, where Mr. Glazyev on a business trip (like Austria) poses with Aven, Chubais and other guides. Bad meeting, to say the least. He may be an intelligent uncle, but judging by the domestic policy pursued in the country, he is the last spoke in the chariot. And who he really is is not clear.
  7. fif21
    fif21 5 March 2017 21: 23
    +4
    To be or not to be!? That is the question. lol Not to be - if Russia remains a raw materials, world appendage. To be - if it becomes a highly technological power with a developed industry. Oil is a bird in the hands of oil, and industrial development is a crane in the sky. We need a team of “Kremlin dreamers,” while the government has “effective managers.” Politics are changing in the USA, EU, England, and this does not significantly affect the economy; in Russia, the economy depends on politics. Everything is much more complicated than Glazyev believes. hi
    1. Stanislas
      Stanislas 6 March 2017 08: 49
      0
      Quote: fif21
      We need a team of “Kremlin dreamers,” while the government has “effective managers.”
      Dreamers, albeit "Kremlin" ones, grew up in an atmosphere of an idealistic worldview. In the European world, the secularization of consciousness (materialization of worldview) has occurred in recent centuries. In the West, the religious ascetic was disadvantageous to the capitalist; this is not his client. For Marx, he also would not go to “kindle a world fire”, therefore both the capitalist and Marx saw in religion the vast majority of people on the planet their enemy. In the early USSR there were still idealists who were ready to work hard for the idea, between Trotsky and Khrushchev there was even an easing of "militant atheism" from a former seminarian, but by the end of the USSR they could be found only among young and "stupid" ones. Got power without ideas, all of whose dreams are due to increased craving for a "beautiful" life. Like on a picture. The church condemns this picture, does not allow the dream to get stuck in villas, yachts and bank accounts. What is the point of persisting in the current Communists in their attacks on religion, it is not clear. Inertia.
  8. A1845
    A1845 5 March 2017 22: 53
    +6
    Isolation and Mobilization

    catch up and overtake with two Stalin five-year plans bully
    but our bydloelites will not allow this negative
  9. Barakuda
    Barakuda 5 March 2017 23: 22
    +2
    Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergey Glazyev

    Eper Theater! In Russia, 524 academicians ....? And who will work with brain-hands? Or most will only earn magazine articles, write forecasts about forecasts request I understand yes - invented, implemented, studied, published, benefit the whole country. I didn’t even rummage through how many doctors in Russia and candidates fake sad Ugh ...
  10. Just a man
    Just a man 6 March 2017 06: 00
    +5
    I think that many, like me, both subconsciously and rationally understand that the existing system of political, economic, social, and ideological relationships has come to a standstill. Things are a little better on the front of moral guidelines. And even then, due to the prevailing centuries-old foundations and the nature of the common people, one can say reflex resistance to the perverted desires of the so-called "European civilization". The question arises, and then what? It can be assumed that Medvedev (it will not be said at breakfast) will make the feat by leaving Facebook and, together with the government, with Putin’s approval, will rush through cities and towns, visit all at least some significant enterprises, plunge into the sea of ​​real problems of the country's people and economy . Then, China will study the positive aspects and methods of strategic development. And on the basis of analysis and scientific justification, remembering finally what they were set for, repenting for their mediocre and dependent life, they will rush to work breaking their hair, devoting themselves only to serving the people and the fatherland. And then I woke up. And I see that, as before, the main criteria for evaluating the work of the authorities remained - a possible forecast for the development of the situation and the degree of budget utilization. Naturally, we will not see real plans and figures. After all, then you may have to answer for laziness. It used to be called sabotage and sabotage.
  11. Cat man null
    Cat man null 6 March 2017 09: 02
    +1
    Quote: vladimirZ
    ... soft wording about ignorant people like Cat Man Null, whose minds are littered with liberal media

    - in, I’ve already been diagnosed, a trifle, but it's nice wink

    Quote: vladimirZ
    Watch at least a video of people more enlightened in this matter, and constantly discussed on the Red Line channel

    - Well, looked ... so what?
    - water on water, in between:
    - “we need a change of regime” (why - it’s not explained ... here it’s needed, that's all!)
    - our weakness (see picture) - also without explanation, what kind of weakness, what to treat?
    - vladimirZWhy did you slip this bullshit to me? There is information - zero integers, zero torn request

    SLA-A-AA-AABOST !!! belay
    1. St Petrov
      St Petrov 6 March 2017 11: 26
      0
      Why did you slip this bullshit to me?


      he calls you into the sect

      Want to talk about Economics? wassat
  12. BAI
    BAI 6 March 2017 12: 57
    0
    500 days of Yavlinsky. Everything rests on a change of elites, and this can only happen according to the Ukrainian version.
    1. St Petrov
      St Petrov 6 March 2017 14: 06
      0
      and this can happen only in the Ukrainian version.


      let's leave such options to Ukrainians - they have pots on their heads - they will not be so hurt
  13. gladcu2
    gladcu2 6 March 2017 13: 00
    +4
    c-t Petrov,
    You are Art. Petrov Do You Know What Capitalism Is? Do you know how to determine the difference between socialism, capitalism? Do you know that capitalism always leads to crises?

    In a nutshell I’ll explain.

    The difference between the two systems is determined by surplus value. Surplus value is the markup to the value of the goods. For example, the cost of goods is the cost + surplus value. So here we are talking about this surplus value. If it exists and belongs to private owners of the means of production, then this is Capitalism. And if this surplus value is in favor of the state, and the state develops social protection and basic sciences, then this is socialism.

    Why is a crisis of capitalism inevitable?

    Because this surplus value allows the transfer of resources from the hands of many to the hands of units. And this process can be accelerated by commercialization. Resale.

    Whatever they do, if you do not change the very principle of the economic system, there will be no improvement.
    Communism is, separately. There are other methods.
    1. St Petrov
      St Petrov 6 March 2017 13: 22
      +1
      You are Art. Petrov Do You Know What Capitalism Is? Do you know how to determine the difference between socialism, capitalism? Do you know that capitalism always leads to crises?


      Not that socialism has led us all to a brighter future. Yes?

      Why is a crisis of capitalism inevitable?


      Give me an example of a stable system in which there is no crisis.

      Whatever they do, if you do not change the very principle of the economic system, there will be no improvement.


      Humanity is still looking for the perfect system. But everywhere has its own - but.
      1. St Petrov
        St Petrov 6 March 2017 13: 48
        0
        and on paper the system can and will be ideal - and when a person enters the business with his list of sins - it becomes clear that dreams of ideals - there is only a whim)
  14. Klaus
    Klaus 6 March 2017 13: 47
    +2
    The situation is really delicate. Money, bills, real estate, yachts, bonds, children - to the West. And they want to orient the market to the East. I do not think that the Chinese comrades are so hopelessly stupid to trust us as a partner in such a situation. Yes, and in general, it is clear that in addition to talking, business with the Chinese is not going on. Although there is still little potential for cooperation, in the same space, aircraft manufacturing and military-industrial complex. However, the Chinese economy is 15 times larger than ours, so cooperation will be, to put it mildly, not in our favor.
    As for America, we cannot offer ANYTHING to them in the current situation. If only brains, and then, the best is gone after the collapse of the USSR.
    In my opinion, a good solution was the idea of ​​Europe - from Lisbon to Vladivostok. Europe needs our resources, and we need their technology and production. Mutually beneficial. But ... the pots are broken, and now everything is muddy.
  15. sds87
    sds87 6 March 2017 14: 23
    +2
    If we do not get away urgently from the magic hand of the market, which itself will decide everything for a mobilization economy, then Russia will end. It will be like in the movie Babylon N.E. It perfectly shows how the West sees Russia in the future: division into parts, poverty, banditry, disorder. Now there is deterrence by a nuclear arsenal, but only from full-scale intervention. Russia is being destroyed through the purchased elite, which has given the entire economy into the hands of direct Western proteges. Part of another elite, leading its game, plunders the country, but at the same time tries to shake its muscles: they say we ourselves haven’t eaten up yet ... And so it scares the West with military toys and participation in various military conflicts. In this case, most of the money goes into service, huge amounts are deposited on the accounts of the oligarchs. Huge amounts are trivially stolen and exported. Naturally, with such a leak of money, budgets and social programs are cut. The hand of the market continues the collapse of the country. The shelf in the Crimea was given to an unknown private company for development. Here is our Crimea, and its wealth is private again / again.
  16. Ostromirov
    Ostromirov 6 March 2017 14: 58
    0
    Glazyev in general did not mention "united by gays europe" as something economically and politically sovereign.

    What is it for?
  17. vladimirZ
    vladimirZ 6 March 2017 15: 02
    0
    c-t Petrov,
    PS I believe in Glazyev. But my faith is purely at the level of faith - and to check in fact what he is talking about is not a fact that it will work out - St. Petrov

    But if you, St. Petrov, have no knowledge and are not able to make out what the leading economists say, this does not mean that others do not understand them.
    And I give these videos in order for people to watch this material, which they will never see in the liberal media, and perhaps begin to understand the current economic and political situation, begin to think critically and perceive the events surrounding them.
    They will begin to see the root of Russian problems, not to be stupid "cheers-patriots" who do not understand the essence of what is happening in our country. And from understanding they will come to the right actions in the same elections, they will know who to vote for and who to ignore.
    I do not hope for an understanding of people like you or like Cat Man Null, everything is clear with you, others, so that you understand who is interested in "What to do?" and "What to do?"
    1. St Petrov
      St Petrov 6 March 2017 15: 30
      0
      But if you, Mr. Petrov, do not have knowledge, and are not able to make out what leading economists say, this does not mean that others do not understand them.


      laughing Your education? In theory, I understand how a rocket engine works - you know what I mean?
      Are you somehow connected with economics and management? Maybe you are a lawyer? And then the area of ​​your criticism is wide))

      You and in the management of the master - you can give advice to anyone - the same with the economy.

      And I give these videos in order for people to watch this material, which they will never see in the liberal media, and perhaps begin to understand the current economic and political situation, begin to think critically and perceive the events surrounding them.


      this is the water you have poured here.

      They will begin to see the root of Russian problems, not to be stupid "cheers-patriots" who do not understand the essence of what is happening in our country. And from understanding they will come to the right actions in the same elections, they will know who to vote for and who to ignore.


      for the Communist Party?)

      I do not hope for an understanding of people like you or, like Cat Man Null, everything is clear with you


      OK))

      You would open your office for interest - you would manage personnel of at least 10 people.

      And then Putin and the whole bloc in the government gave advice. Although it’s clear that you are standing here in a white coat - but all around are fools.

      But this is not serious.
      1. vladimirZ
        vladimirZ 7 March 2017 09: 01
        0
        You would open your office for interest - you would manage personnel of at least 10 people. - s. Petrov

        Managed. He was both the head of the workshop and the director of the plant. In the post-Soviet era, he was engaged in entrepreneurship.
        So I understand how many understand.
        If you do not have knowledge, it would be better than trolling, we learned to understand what is happening.
  18. Ostromirov
    Ostromirov 6 March 2017 15: 37
    +1
    When academics talk about the "global economy" get for his reasoning, the Nobel Prizes, and at that time somewhere in Africa or Asia people starve to death with such the global economy, then maybe academics are not talking aboutworld", But about some"privately owned"- for a certain circle of countries - the economy?
    1. St Petrov
      St Petrov 6 March 2017 15: 42
      0
      there is nothing global - there is competition of nations and states.

      The rest is a whim. Famine and war are a consequence of this competition.

  19. Vladimir K
    Vladimir K 6 March 2017 15: 46
    +4
    I completely agree with what is written in the article before the description of the "scenarios." 90s weeds still pull us back. You do not have to be a great economist to understand the absurdity of the current economic situation, when in the country of great opportunities stomping on the ground is presented as the planned improvement of the situation. Against this background, the growth of the Chinese economy at 6,7% per annum looks like a mockery of our grief managers. But the trouble is that stomping on the spot is not only an internal problem, but also that it understates our position in the global economy, and, accordingly, in global politics. Our administration, which mainly focuses on global politics, should not forget that without a solid rear it will soon be impossible to dream of global politics.
  20. Cat man null
    Cat man null 7 March 2017 18: 05
    0
    Quote: levfuks
    I have written about Rosneft more than once, in short - this is a "package" and very political deal

    The “scheme” is already known to all interested and is not at all like privatization. And people were told - "... privatization ... the money arrived in full ..." But this is not entirely true. Cheated?

    - actually I try ... not to feed. But it was too funny, you framed wink
    - Your version of the "scheme", which is "known" - in the studio. Be sure to indicate the source of information.
    - where and why "cheated" - details - in the studio. Again, indicating the source of the information.
    - then we’ll talk ... if you don’t merge, of course yes
  21. stas
    stas 9 March 2017 12: 13
    +1
    Quote: CYBERNINDJA
    Glazyev's whining has already been going on since the deputies got into it

    Urya-I patriots are even worse, it is thanks to them that lawlessness also happens in Russia.
    But at least a count on their head will not help.
    Garbage is going on in the Russian economy, and everything suits the idiots.
    Here also they once supported Gorbaty, and then into the bushes, it was his fault and we had nothing to do with it, we respect the authorities.
  22. Kudrevkn
    Kudrevkn 9 March 2017 12: 19
    +2
    Glazyev discovered the "next America" ​​- "seven Stalinist attacks on the enemy"? I would recommend the academician from economics, and other "specialists in forecasts" - re-read two Leninist works "The United States ... Europe" and "Imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism"! Written 100 (!) Years ago, but relevant today - it is easy to read (despite my view on the rather complicated Leninist style of presentation) and is understandable enough, especially taking into account the lessons (results) of the story. Read it and you, Sirs Experts! And then compare - who is a genius and a Master, and who is an apprentice? I call these talking heads from the TV, daily repeating the same thing (BSK) "budgies" - chirping, scurrying ... in a cage !? The main thing is to change their water and feed them on time!
  23. gladcu2
    gladcu2 12 March 2017 01: 22
    0
    vladimirZ,
    Vladimir

    I read the red line, and follow it carefully. Your professor behaves like a gopnik. Look at his behavior.

    Political scientist, more realistic. But, the conclusions are not correct. In the USA, dual power. D. Trump wants to return the power of the state. And he will do this without reckoning with the victims. Russia and China are interested in D. Trump as tools. They will help, well, they will not help, well, and they went on a long saxaul path.

    The red line should not be based on ideology ... In ideology, the red line is a set of noobs ... They do not understand a damn thing in ideology ...

    The red line should be based on logic.

    How to do business? It must be remembered, Marx.

    After all, it is said that monopolies conduct planned production. Then what needs to be done? repeal antitrust laws. Give an opportunity to win affective production and take it under state control.

    All things.