Yemen sticking

8
The situation in Yemen, at first glance, is fairly linear. In the civil war, detachments of northerly Housits ​​and their ally, former president A. A. Salekh, are fighting against the forces of the Arabian Coalition, which are based on KSA and UAE military contingents.

The coalition intends to formally extend to the entire territory of Yemen the power of its protégé, the “internationally recognized” president A. M. Hadi, who is not very much supported even by the southerners on whom he theoretically relies. Behind the northerners is Iran. For the monarchies of the Gulf - the United States. The scheme is as simple as far from the truth. In fact, the relationship of the Housits ​​and Saleh is as confusing as Abu Dhabi and Riyadh and all of them with Washington. Each group has its own interests and is somehow connected with the United States. Consider what is happening in Yemen, based on the materials of P. P. Ryabov prepared for the IBV.





American restructuring

Pentagon leaks about the operation of the American special forces 29 in January in the Yemeni village of Yakla confirm that it failed. The Pentagon does not recognize that the sally was preparing a month and for the collection of data the Americans turned to the former President of Yemen, Saleh. The goal was the release of two American hostages, working on one of the Yemeni oil rigs. But at the same time, the command of US special operations forces (US SOCOM) decided to liquidate the head of Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Kasem Al-Rimi, based on data from the Saudis, more precisely, the information they received from the agents of the special services of the "legitimate Yemeni government." The information was a lie.

American analysts point to sharply narrowed US intelligence capabilities in Yemen after the cessation of official contacts with the special services of this country three years ago. Americans do not have their own agents. They operate based on data from partners and radio intelligence.

The operation in Yakle was carried out by “fur seals” and special forces of the United Arab Emirates. At night, they flew by helicopter from the Al-Anab base at Aden, landed on Shouum hill near the village and were ambushed. The battle lasted about 45 minutes. As a result, one American died, one helicopter was damaged and abandoned. Abu Dhabi does not report the loss of UAE forces, without advertising participation in this raid. The operation at night in an unfamiliar area looks very controversial, albeit with night-vision devices. Such landings are made in daylight, better in an hour or two days, when Yemenis are resting.

The scenario of the failure of the original plan by the Americans was clearly not calculated. In this regard, Pentagon analysts believe that the Islamists were ready for the raid, noticing the night before the US UAV, which was conducting additional reconnaissance of the area. In connection with the statements of the Pentagon that the target of the operation was K. al-Rimi, the question arises: it would not have been easier to hit drone around the Dahab house? Why staged a raid and sent special forces? As a result, the losses among the civilian population are going through the roof. There were no hostages at the battlefield.

The failure demonstrates the inconsistency of the system of actions in Yemen, built under Obama. Recall that its main creator was the former director of the CIA, J. Brennan. He worked in contact with the security forces of Saleh, organized training for local special forces (they are now fighting in alliance with the Khousits ​​against Hadi), supported the alliance with KSA, including intelligence sharing, the use of radio intelligence and the UAV to eliminate the leaders of AQAP. The Americans possessed intelligence exchange data with Amn Siyasi (“Political Security”) of Yemen and the General Intelligence Agency (CRO) KSA. At the same time, both special services are actively using the “Islamist factor” in Yemen. Riyadh has links with AQAP and Tariq al-Fadli, a jihadist from Abjian. Saleh, as a more pragmatic politician, sometimes turned in prominent Islamists like the former US military intelligence agent A. al-Awlaki to the Americans.

In 2015, the CIA severed ties with official Yemeni structures with the motivation of the “Houssit military coup,” retaining one-time contacts with Saleh. The same is supported with the Housewits - through Oman, and sometimes Switzerland. Under Obama, the CIA and the State Department demanded from Riyadh "incorporation of the Housits ​​into the future institutions of the executive and legislative power of Yemen." Hence, the repeated recommendations of the KSA Americans "to take San 'by storm is impractical." It strained their relationship. As for the Trump administration’s policy in Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula as a whole, it will be adjusted. According to data from the entourage of the new US Secretary of State R. Tillerson, who has long-standing contacts with influential figures in KSA, he intends to base his restructuring of the system of relations with Riyadh. That is, the position of the previous US administration will be changed, which implied a departure from the strategic partnership with KSA, including in the field of security.

The basis of Obama’s policy was to create a system of checks and balances in the Middle East after the lifting of sanctions against Iran. The Trump administration is ready to step up security coordination with Riyadh. This will affect the information exchange between the special services, the admission of the Saudi side to satellite intelligence data online - a step towards lifting the embargo on the sale of GE technologies to GE (GEOINT) (geospatial intelligence) technologies.

Iranian Sea Range

The UAE MFA summoned 2 on February of Iran's charge d'affaires in Abu Dhabi due to the military support Tehran provides to the Khousits. A note of protest was handed over to the Iranian diplomat. UAE authorities accuse Tehran of illegal arms shipments to units that staged a coup in Yemen. The UAE MFA stressed that these actions are in direct violation of the decisions of the UN Security Council, including resolution 2216, which requires the khoshits to surrender weapon and leave the territories they control. Meanwhile, in Yemen, from August 2014, the confrontation between the government forces and the Housits ​​continues. The UN reported a sharp exacerbation of the situation in the provinces of Taiz and Hodeidah in western Yemen, where the number of coalition air strikes led by KSA is growing.

At the same time, the UAE has been participating in the coalition for a long time, and the protest to Iran is announced for the first time. Abu Dhabi has always maintained a special relationship with Iran, tied to operations in the banking sector and maritime logistics. The main export-import operations of Iran go through the UAE. Despite the disputes over the occupied Emirate Islands, bilateral relations between them have always been businesslike. The UAE did not aggravate them with diplomatic demarches, but this time they did.

There are two explanations for this. First, Abu Dhabi was forced to support Riyadh, which categorically demanded from all members of the GCC, especially the members of the Arabian Coalition, a public reaction to the supply of the Housits ​​and the forces of the former Yemeni President Saleh with Iranian weapons. More precisely - mostly Chinese, but bought with Iranian money. His smuggling goes through Oman and Somalia, which was the reason for the conflict in the GCC and diplomatic pressure on Muscat from Riyadh. Partial freezing of smuggling through Dofar has activated the Somali direction, increasing the funding and combat potential of the Islamists there tenfold. That immediately felt peacekeepers from AMISOM.

Secondly, the note of the Emirates was stimulated by the shelling of “unknown” Chinese anti-ship missiles by transport vessels of the United Arab Emirates and destroyers of the USA at the end of 2016, and the recent attack of the Saudi frigate by boats with suicide bombers. The Pentagon thinks that those behind the attack suggested that the suicide bomber was attacking a US warship, or it was working out a strike similar to that of the American destroyer Cole (Cole) in October 2000.

The commanders of the coalition forces regarded the attack on the Saudi frigate as a terrorist attack, which was carried out by the supporters of the Ansar Allah movement (the Housits). In fact, it was an attempt of the classical Iranian attack by speedboats with shelling of an enemy ship from an RPG. The crew of one boat was killed, and the boat collided with a frigate. If there was a suicide bomber, the frigate would get a hole, which did not happen.

Housity in this case, as in the shelling of a US destroyer, nothing to do with. They conduct intensive secret negotiations with the Americans in Oman about the conditions for ending the civil war and position themselves as real forces that can resist jihadists. That is what makes the United States reckon with them and insist on incorporating the Housits ​​into the political architecture of Yemen, despite attempts by the KSA to accuse them of terrorism. According to the experts of IBM, the Iranians carried out the attack in the first and in the second case. This is evidenced by data of radio interceptions. In the first case, approbation of a modernized Chinese RCC was under way. In the second, in addition to causing damage to the KSA, the goal was to test the method of attacking military and civilian speedboats and RPGs at sea. At one time, the Iranians blocked the passage of oil tankers in the Gulf in this way. Now the model, bearing clear risks to shipping, is being tested in the Red Sea. And this is Tehran’s second attempt to send a signal. This alerted the UAE, for which it is important to ensure safe navigation in the Horn of Africa and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. From here their sharp reaction.

Consultation in the terrarium

According to the experts of the IWB, informal consultations are now taking place between KSA, the UAE and representatives of the so-called Yemeni government about changing the head of the Cabinet. This post is held by a native of Hadramaut, a former member of the Central Committee of the Yemen Socialist Party, later one of the active supporters of the former President of the country, Saleh Abdul Aziz bin Saleh Habtur. He was nominated for this post by the President of Yemen, Hadi, at the suggestion of Riyadh, who thus removed the United Arab Emirates appointee, Khaled Mahfouz Bahha, from the post of cabinet chairman. The current rotation of the prime minister is the continuation of this conflict due to Abu Dhabi’s dissatisfaction with the “sharp roll” of the head of government towards the Muslim Brotherhood represented by the Islamist Islam party. The Muslim Brotherhood is considered in the UAE a threat to national security on a par with Iran.

Yemen stickingThe main split between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in the Yemeni direction is related to this. Saudi Arabia, which, at the first stage of the crisis, abandoned its former ally in the face of Islah (the party leadership, the Ahmar brothers and the half-brother of former President Ali Mohsen were in Qatar’s orbit), now relies on this party as a force that can break the resistance of the Housits and take the capital of Yemen - Sanou. Rather, not a party, but the Hashed tribal militia that stands behind it. It is for this purpose that Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar was appointed vice president in 2016. Experts estimate his relationship with Hadi as “workers”. True, the militia of Hashed behaves passively, accumulates weapons and is not in a hurry to become the “spearhead” of the “Arabian Coalition”.

Secret consultations on the change of prime minister began in Riyadh after the events at the airport Aden 13 – 14 in February. Then the detachments of the Yemeni Armed Forces, which were based on the supporters of the Islah party, executed the order of Hadi and tried to take the airport building and its infrastructure under guard with an eye to the cargo terminal. Full-scale hostilities unfolded. Airport security was recruited in one of the South Yemeni harakats, funded and controlled by the UAE military command in Aden. The column of military equipment and vehicles "representatives Hadi" of the UAE air force struck. The death toll was close to a hundred with many wounded. But among the defenders of the airport were the victims.

Subdivisions of a private security company, led by the founder of Blackwaters E. Prins, are responsible for the protection of the main infrastructure and headquarters of the UAE mission. They strengthened the security of the terminals, but the fighting had ended by that time, and supporters of the Islach party had withdrawn. This led to a crisis in the relations between Abu Dhabi - on the one hand, and A. M. Hadi and Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, to whom the supporters of "Islah" obeyed, on the other. As a result, the “interested parties” gathered for consultations in Riyadh.

Why did A.M. Hadi and Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar try to control the airport in Aden? The fact is that the UAE does not allow weapons and ammunition purchased in Ukraine, arguing that the weapons are used to strengthen the fighting potential of the Muslim Brotherhood. At the same time, most of the Ukrainian weapons were resold to African countries through Housit channels. Until last month, they controlled the port of Moha on the Red Sea, through which the main smuggling took place. Housity took their "percentage." The smuggling scheme of the Ukrainian weapons of A.M. Hadi and Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar (he was also engaged in 90’s from Russia) was destroyed: the Hodeidah port was under the control of the Housits ​​and under the increased attention of the Navy of KSA and Egypt, and the airport of Aden and the port of Moha - under the control of the UAE. What does not interfere, through Somali territory, is to send Chinese weapons to the Housits ​​to Yemen, but the Iranians are already engaged in this.

The operation of the United Arab Emirates and the South Yemeni harakats under their control in mid-January - early February to free Mohi was intended to stop this channel. It was completed recently, costing large casualties, and the port of Mocha was not fully taken. February 22 there, as a result of a rocket attack, killed the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of government troops, General Ahmed Seif al-Yafi and killed several of his assistants. We emphasize that the reasoning that after the Mokhs the emirates move further to Hodeida does not have serious reasons both due to the unclear situation in Moss and large losses, and due to the fact that the UAE does not have significant interests in the north of the country.

At the above-mentioned consultations, the former chairman of the Cabinet in the Democratic Republic of Korea H. Attas became a promising candidate for premiere. He, despite his age (for 70 years), is familiar to the Saudi leadership, lived in KSA and receives a monthly “pension” of 100 thousand dollars from Riyadh. Enjoys influence in the south of the country as a supporter of secession, which suits Abu Dhabi, putting on the state separation of South Yemen. Attas does not like "Islah", which is important for the UAE. They know him in Russia. He came to Moscow in January, held informal meetings at the Foreign Ministry and is considered conditionally pro-Russian politician. Before visiting Washington. Attas's figure is the most appropriate, although he put forward a number of conditions that could make his candidacy impassable. In particular, he demanded to transfer to him a part of the powers in the executive power, which Hadi exclusively monitors.

Consultations in Riyadh ceased due to the uncompromising position of Abu Dhabi, or rather, the crown prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahayan. Representatives of CSA and Hadi proposed to put the airport under joint control, which the UAE envoys had rejected. After the failure of this round, the delegations of Hadi and the military KSA left for Abu Dhabi. From Yemen, it included the president’s son, General Nasser Hadi, and the “second man” in the office of Abdullah al-Olaimi. From KSA - the commander of the special forces Fahd bin Turki Al Saud. They carried a revised plan for the section of “zones of influence” at Aden Airport, which implies the transfer of part of cargo terminals to the protection of Presidential Protection Units (PPU) under the command of the son of President Hadi, the backbone of which are members of the Islah party from South Yemen. The unified delegation for three days unsuccessfully tried to persuade Muhammad bin Zayed Al-Nahayan to accept this plan.

The Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates justified a sharp rejection of the proposals of A.M. Hadi and his Saudi patrons by the fact that this way violated the tacit agreement between KSA and the United Arab Emirates regarding the “zones of influence” in Yemen. In August, 2015 of the year in the Moroccan Tangier determined that the Emirates sector includes the south and east of the country, and the Saudi sector - the north. The oil-rich area of ​​Maariba was to be jointly controlled. The current clearly inspired KSA attempts by their creators in the person of A. M. Hadi to take control of Aden Airport violate the agreement. In this case, Riyadh in such a maneuver is trying to strengthen the financial position of A.M. Hadi through the proceeds from arms smuggling and increase its weight in the political elite of the country. Abu Dhabi categorically does not welcome this scenario, which he showed, provoking the most serious crisis of relations with Riyadh over the past year.

Some experts believe that the relationship between the UAE and KSA is experiencing a "boiling point". This crisis of the global interests of the GCC partners in the Yemeni direction could have the most negative impact on the offensive dynamics of the Arabian Coalition troops and their allies on Sana'a. Moreover, he is unlikely to be the cause of the collapse of the coalition. Abu Dhabi regards its presence in Yemen primarily as a way to establish control over the water area and logistics of transport routes in the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa and will not leave this country. From their point of view, it is time to firmly outline the red lines in front of Riyadh, for which he should not overstep. And Saudi Arabia, as far as can be judged, will be forced to accept these rules of the game.

Allowed to lose the UAE in Yemen as an ally Riyadh can not - KSA so stuck in the Syrian conflict and spends on him such money that to keep Yemen under control at current oil prices, the deplorable state of the Armed Forces of the kingdom and the level of confrontation with Iran condition. What in the UAE, of course, understand and take advantage of. Normal for the Middle East "like-minded terrarium".
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8 comments
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  1. +2
    4 March 2017 06: 43
    Yes, they all went to the forest !!!
  2. 0
    4 March 2017 06: 51
    Everything there is more complicated than it seems, but the bottom line is that everyone wants power, and unlimited power.
  3. 0
    4 March 2017 06: 53
    The information turned out to be a lie

    Trust but verify. Especially if the "friends" are Saudis. The article is good and sheds light on certain points. In this area, few people have an opportunity to argue with E. Satanovsky.
  4. 0
    4 March 2017 08: 11
    based on the data of the Saudis, more precisely, the information they received from the intelligence agencies of the "legitimate Yemeni government." The information turned out to be a lie.


    ... lit up the merikatosny - "like suckers" !!! and by the way, why “how”, they are the same ... laughing
  5. +1
    4 March 2017 08: 17
    The East business is so “subtle” that there Satan’s “breaks his leg” ... In the east there is no such thing as “constantly” - everything changes hourly there. In addition, there are so many large and small foci of force that gravitate among themselves, gravitating to one or the other, that even the eastern comrades themselves cannot say who will be with whom tomorrow and for how long ... "maktub" is one word .. .
  6. 0
    4 March 2017 11: 18
    Today they showed how the Saudis “fought” in Yemen. Sheer cowardice, lack of mutual assistance and simply the absence of elementary professionalism. Barefoot Yemeni partisans openly laugh at them, delivering their sharp blows mainly from simple weapons. And the Saudis with sophisticated American technology rush about like hares in the field.
    1. 0
      4 March 2017 15: 38
      Yemen Yemen's army and the Hussites partisans:

      we need to support the Hussites and Iran and in the future to create a “Shiite belt” from our allies, as opposed to the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other accomplices of terrorism.
  7. +1
    7 March 2017 00: 34
    They are strange. The same Howsites and their cover Iran. Than it is useless to land missiles across Riyadh, it is better at the KSA oil terminal in Jeddah. The range is the same. If at least one of the 3-5 missiles is more or less successful, then Saudi exports will fall by 20-30% by six months. And they already have a budget deficit of $ 50 billion. At the same time, the price of oil will rise to $ 100. You can also catch a moment when there is a Jewish tanker under loading. Strange they are shorter.

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