Black future of Montenegro. Why does Podgorica rush to the West?
Recently, the "black cat ran" in Russian-Montenegrin relations. Montenegro is one of the oldest and closest historical allies of Russia in the Balkans. Even after Montenegro separated from Serbia in 2006, this did not become an obstacle in Russian-Montenegrin relations. On the contrary, Russia has invested heavily in the economic development of Montenegro. It was Russian entrepreneurs and tourists who invested enormous amounts of money in the development of a small state. But this did not affect the decision of the Montenegrin leadership to join NATO and the European Union. The West set a key condition for the country's authorities - to free themselves as much as possible from Russian influence, both political and economic.
Today we see how the efforts of Western countries, dissatisfied with Russian influence in the Balkans, are beginning to bear fruit in Montenegro. The authorities of this small republic were not able to resist the influence of the West and hurried to dissociate themselves from the centuries-old traditions of friendship between Montenegro and Russia, thus betraying the memory of the greatest sons of the Montenegrin people who collaborated with the Russian state and loved Russia.
Back in April, 2014, Montenegro joined the sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia. By the way, neighboring Serbia did not declare sanctions. Thus, the Prime Minister of Montenegro Milo Djukanovic stressed the loyalty to the European Union and NATO. The anti-Russian attitude of the Montenegrin policy is manifested not only in joining the sanctions and in the critical statements of Djukanovic against Moscow. Inside Montenegro, the country's authorities have embarked on the open extrusion of Russians. The presence of a large number of Russian citizens in the country, their active participation in the Montenegrin economy is viewed by the country's leaders as a potential danger to the existing pro-Western status of the republic. In addition, Montenegrin businessmen, many of whom are essentially criminal figures involved in corruption schemes, are extremely interested in appropriating property created and promoted by other businessmen, in this case Russian ones. The business of a number of Western countries, for which Montenegro is also of particular interest and which Western European entrepreneurs do not want to give in to Russia, would not mind taking advantage of someone else’s.
At first, the Montenegrin government set about creating unbearable conditions for Russian business. Even in the epoch of existence of the SFRY, Zhelezara Nikšić steel foundry was built on the territory of Montenegro, which was supposed to produce high-quality steel for products used for the needs of the Yugoslav armed forces. Then, already today, the Montenegrin leadership actually condoned the actions of the company's employees, who blocked the export of products. The Russian company, which by that time owned the plant, was forced to leave the Montenegrin market - in addition to the blockade of the company, unknown persons blew up the car of the general director. After that, the country's leadership confiscated the company.
The sad history of Russian investment in a steel mill was not the only example of squeezing our business out of Montenegro. So, the government of the country actually seized the aluminum production enterprise, a stake in which belonged to CEAC, which was part of Oleg Deripaska’s structures. As far back as 2014, the billionaire himself declared the confiscation of his share in the enterprise by the Montenegrin state unlawful, but the country's leadership did not essentially respond to these claims. Using administrative levers, the authorities appropriated the enterprise, and then sold it for a symbolic sum to Veselin Peyović, a well-known Montenegrin businessman, not alien to political activity. True, now Veselin Peyovich does not cease to boast that he managed to literally lift the enterprise off its knees and now it is able to work without subsidies from the state. However, persistent rumors are circulating that Peyovic will sooner or later sell this plant to European structures - it is they who are interested in squeezing Russian capital out of Montenegro.
Further deterioration of the investment climate for the Russians in the once fraternal Montenegro manifested itself in the fact that Russian businessmen actually ceased to admit to tenders for the construction of facilities in the country. Problems began with hoteliers, who in the middle of 2000's. launched a powerful construction of hotels and entertainment complexes on the Montenegrin coast. For example, the authorities of the country confiscated Astra Montenegro - an “amusement town”, the construction of which was started by the well-known Russian entrepreneur Sergey Polonsky. He was not allowed to finish the project, but Astra Montenegro quickly got his hands on it - now Montenegrin structures are actively exploiting it.
Even more unpleasant for Russians is the line of the Montenegrin leadership - incitement to hatred of Russia, Russian culture and Russian citizens. Until recently, the Russians felt very comfortable in Montenegro. The country inhabited by the Orthodox Slavic people was regarded as a much more acceptable place to relax or invest in real estate than other “resort countries” popular in Russia - Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia. Many wealthy Russians managed to acquire their own real estate in Montenegro, an even greater number of our fellow citizens began to regularly come to this country to rest. The presence of Russian tourists in the country brought a lot of money to the Montenegrin budget. Given the size of Montenegro and the weakness of its economy, the tourism sector provided the bulk of the country's income. In turn, tourists from Russia accounted for at least 30% of the total number of foreign tourists coming to the country. In addition to individual tourists, there were holiday camps in Montenegro, created by the Russian Ministry of Education.
However, after the anti-Russian turnaround, the Montenegrin leadership proceeded to squeeze not only businessmen from the country, but also ordinary Russian citizens. First of all, the country's police have become far less active in responding to incidents of theft and robbery committed against citizens of the Russian Federation. Anti-Russian posters and graffiti appeared on the streets of Montenegrin cities, and the media controlled by the country's government began to compete with each other in the delights of anti-Russian propaganda. All this, of course, created a very difficult moral and psychological environment for the presence of Russians in Montenegro.
In the end, Russia, which had long endured the antics of the Montenegrin leadership, began to curtail its presence in this country. The Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation closed the summer camps in Tivat. Now, Russian children will not go to Montenegro to rest - so it is quieter. Russian athletes from the water polo federation, previously trained in the same Tivat, will now continue to train in Serbia - unlike Montenegro, Serbia, even in a difficult situation with the imposition of sanctions, was able to show political resilience and stayed with Russia. Some more drastic measures the Russian authorities have not yet implemented, but if, say, Moscow will go to a significant restriction of charter flights to Montenegro, then the small Balkan country will remain without an overwhelming majority of Russian tourists. Who will benefit from this? Obviously not Montenegro!
It should be noted that the policy of the Montenegrin leadership with disapproval is perceived by very many ordinary citizens of the country. This is understandable. First, Montenegro is still linked by a very old friendship with Russia. The Russian and Montenegrin peoples have been friends for centuries, have successfully passed the tests of the First and Second World Wars - the Montenegrins have always been on the side of the Russians. Many Montenegrins are sure that adventurers will not be able to spoil the Russian-Montenegrin friendship.
Secondly, that in modern conditions it is significantly less - Russia carries money to Montenegro. The tourism industry is the most important formative sector of the Montenegrin economy. Revenues from it are approaching 60% of GDP. The beaches of the Adriatic Sea make Montenegro very attractive for tourists. But they go to Montenegro, first of all, Russian citizens. For Europeans, the level of Montenegrin service seems to be underdeveloped, and for Asians and Africans, prices in Montenegro are high. Therefore, if there are no Russian tourists, the socio-economic situation in the country will become much worse. One must be an extremely naive person to believe that European or American subsidies will reach ordinary Montenegrins. Montenegrin will receive a salary at the hotel, money from renting a house too. Receive money from the sale of goods and fare, if it will earn a taxi driver. But the "slice" from the Western subsidies to the ordinary citizen does not shine - "Brussels sprouts" will be distributed even at the highest level of the Montenegrin establishment. In the best case, some money will be transferred to middle-level officials and “siloviki”.
Many Montenegrins are increasingly demonstrating dissatisfaction with the policies of their government. Especially negative in the country is the figure of Milo Djukanovic, who recently left the post of head of the Montenegrin government. Although the West is very fond of talking about democracy and the "change of power", Djukanovic has firmly attached himself to the Montenegrin government chairs. The post of prime minister of Montenegro was a hereditary partnomenklatur (his father was also a major functionary in the Union of Communists of Yugoslavia, and Milo himself joined the Central Committee of the Union of Communists at the age of 26 years old when only other institutions ended), Djukanovic took in 1991 a year when he not yet thirty years old. Since that time, he has 26 years, steadily "wanders" from one powerful post to another. In 1991-1998 Djukanovic was the Prime Minister of Montenegro, in 1998-2002. - President, in 2003-2006. - Prime Minister again, in 2006 - Acting Minister of Defense, in 2008-2010 and 2012-2016 - again the prime minister of Montenegro. During this time, Djukanovic managed to be a supporter of the former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, and his opponent, and an ardent supporter of integration into NATO and the EU. In 2016, Mr. Djukanovic as the country's prime minister was replaced by Dusko Markovic. This is a politician of the same cohort, deputy Djukanovic for the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro.
In October, a coup attempt was prevented in Montenegro in 2016. According to government officials, a group of Serbian citizens attempted to overthrow and kill Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic. The country's police reported on the arrest of twenty citizens of neighboring Serbia, who, according to the intelligence services, constituted the “backbone” of the conspirators. Allegedly, they planned to seize power in the country, kill Djukanovic and change the foreign policy of Montenegro, reorienting it to cooperation with Moscow.
Almost immediately, they blamed Russia for involvement in the preparation of the coup. The leaders of the conspirators, according to the Montenegrin authorities, were Bratislav Dikic, a colonel of the Serbian police, a former gendarmerie chief of the Serbian Interior Ministry and the leader of the Serbian Patriotic movement, Alexander Singelić, the leader of the Serbian Wolves movement, and Nemanja Ristic, the leader of the Zavetnica movement. In addition, in November 2016, the authorities declared that citizens of the Russian Federation were involved in the preparation of the coup. The Montenegrin Prosecutor’s Office has named names - this is 36-year-old Vladimir Popov and 46-year-old Edward Shishmakov, who were called agents of the Russian special services. Citizens of Russia, Montenegrin special services announced in the international search. The Russian Foreign Ministry denied the allegations of Russia's involvement in the preparation of a coup in Montenegro and called them unfounded.
However, even without Russian participation, the positions of supporters of the notorious European integration in Montenegro look very shaky. A certain part of the Montenegrins, as in their time, and Ukrainian citizens, managed to be fooled by the promises of almost fabulous life after the country's integration with the European Union. But many adequate Montenegrins are well aware that after the final break with Russia they don’t shine any “milk rivers”. Most likely, a serious economic crisis will begin in the country, on the wave of which European companies will buy property that has fallen in price to impossibility. It turns out that Djukanovic and his supporters actually play against the real interests of both Montenegro and the Montenegrin people. But integration into Europe is very beneficial to the corrupt and criminalized part of the Montenegrin political elite, and, alas, it is very numerous. Montenegrin officials and businessmen close to them look at the numerous properties of Russian companies and Russian citizens in their own country with appetite and expect that if there is a final break with Russia, this property will be confiscated under a specious pretext and then redistributed to them.
The only thing you can predict for sure - while maintaining the anti-Russian course, Montenegro does not expect anything good to come. The termination of Russian investments will entail a deterioration of the economic situation in the country, and corrupt clans with strong positions in the Montenegrin leadership will further strengthen their influence, this time with the direct support of the West.
Today we see how the efforts of Western countries, dissatisfied with Russian influence in the Balkans, are beginning to bear fruit in Montenegro. The authorities of this small republic were not able to resist the influence of the West and hurried to dissociate themselves from the centuries-old traditions of friendship between Montenegro and Russia, thus betraying the memory of the greatest sons of the Montenegrin people who collaborated with the Russian state and loved Russia.
Back in April, 2014, Montenegro joined the sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia. By the way, neighboring Serbia did not declare sanctions. Thus, the Prime Minister of Montenegro Milo Djukanovic stressed the loyalty to the European Union and NATO. The anti-Russian attitude of the Montenegrin policy is manifested not only in joining the sanctions and in the critical statements of Djukanovic against Moscow. Inside Montenegro, the country's authorities have embarked on the open extrusion of Russians. The presence of a large number of Russian citizens in the country, their active participation in the Montenegrin economy is viewed by the country's leaders as a potential danger to the existing pro-Western status of the republic. In addition, Montenegrin businessmen, many of whom are essentially criminal figures involved in corruption schemes, are extremely interested in appropriating property created and promoted by other businessmen, in this case Russian ones. The business of a number of Western countries, for which Montenegro is also of particular interest and which Western European entrepreneurs do not want to give in to Russia, would not mind taking advantage of someone else’s.
At first, the Montenegrin government set about creating unbearable conditions for Russian business. Even in the epoch of existence of the SFRY, Zhelezara Nikšić steel foundry was built on the territory of Montenegro, which was supposed to produce high-quality steel for products used for the needs of the Yugoslav armed forces. Then, already today, the Montenegrin leadership actually condoned the actions of the company's employees, who blocked the export of products. The Russian company, which by that time owned the plant, was forced to leave the Montenegrin market - in addition to the blockade of the company, unknown persons blew up the car of the general director. After that, the country's leadership confiscated the company.
The sad history of Russian investment in a steel mill was not the only example of squeezing our business out of Montenegro. So, the government of the country actually seized the aluminum production enterprise, a stake in which belonged to CEAC, which was part of Oleg Deripaska’s structures. As far back as 2014, the billionaire himself declared the confiscation of his share in the enterprise by the Montenegrin state unlawful, but the country's leadership did not essentially respond to these claims. Using administrative levers, the authorities appropriated the enterprise, and then sold it for a symbolic sum to Veselin Peyović, a well-known Montenegrin businessman, not alien to political activity. True, now Veselin Peyovich does not cease to boast that he managed to literally lift the enterprise off its knees and now it is able to work without subsidies from the state. However, persistent rumors are circulating that Peyovic will sooner or later sell this plant to European structures - it is they who are interested in squeezing Russian capital out of Montenegro.
Further deterioration of the investment climate for the Russians in the once fraternal Montenegro manifested itself in the fact that Russian businessmen actually ceased to admit to tenders for the construction of facilities in the country. Problems began with hoteliers, who in the middle of 2000's. launched a powerful construction of hotels and entertainment complexes on the Montenegrin coast. For example, the authorities of the country confiscated Astra Montenegro - an “amusement town”, the construction of which was started by the well-known Russian entrepreneur Sergey Polonsky. He was not allowed to finish the project, but Astra Montenegro quickly got his hands on it - now Montenegrin structures are actively exploiting it.
Even more unpleasant for Russians is the line of the Montenegrin leadership - incitement to hatred of Russia, Russian culture and Russian citizens. Until recently, the Russians felt very comfortable in Montenegro. The country inhabited by the Orthodox Slavic people was regarded as a much more acceptable place to relax or invest in real estate than other “resort countries” popular in Russia - Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia. Many wealthy Russians managed to acquire their own real estate in Montenegro, an even greater number of our fellow citizens began to regularly come to this country to rest. The presence of Russian tourists in the country brought a lot of money to the Montenegrin budget. Given the size of Montenegro and the weakness of its economy, the tourism sector provided the bulk of the country's income. In turn, tourists from Russia accounted for at least 30% of the total number of foreign tourists coming to the country. In addition to individual tourists, there were holiday camps in Montenegro, created by the Russian Ministry of Education.
However, after the anti-Russian turnaround, the Montenegrin leadership proceeded to squeeze not only businessmen from the country, but also ordinary Russian citizens. First of all, the country's police have become far less active in responding to incidents of theft and robbery committed against citizens of the Russian Federation. Anti-Russian posters and graffiti appeared on the streets of Montenegrin cities, and the media controlled by the country's government began to compete with each other in the delights of anti-Russian propaganda. All this, of course, created a very difficult moral and psychological environment for the presence of Russians in Montenegro.
In the end, Russia, which had long endured the antics of the Montenegrin leadership, began to curtail its presence in this country. The Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation closed the summer camps in Tivat. Now, Russian children will not go to Montenegro to rest - so it is quieter. Russian athletes from the water polo federation, previously trained in the same Tivat, will now continue to train in Serbia - unlike Montenegro, Serbia, even in a difficult situation with the imposition of sanctions, was able to show political resilience and stayed with Russia. Some more drastic measures the Russian authorities have not yet implemented, but if, say, Moscow will go to a significant restriction of charter flights to Montenegro, then the small Balkan country will remain without an overwhelming majority of Russian tourists. Who will benefit from this? Obviously not Montenegro!
It should be noted that the policy of the Montenegrin leadership with disapproval is perceived by very many ordinary citizens of the country. This is understandable. First, Montenegro is still linked by a very old friendship with Russia. The Russian and Montenegrin peoples have been friends for centuries, have successfully passed the tests of the First and Second World Wars - the Montenegrins have always been on the side of the Russians. Many Montenegrins are sure that adventurers will not be able to spoil the Russian-Montenegrin friendship.
Secondly, that in modern conditions it is significantly less - Russia carries money to Montenegro. The tourism industry is the most important formative sector of the Montenegrin economy. Revenues from it are approaching 60% of GDP. The beaches of the Adriatic Sea make Montenegro very attractive for tourists. But they go to Montenegro, first of all, Russian citizens. For Europeans, the level of Montenegrin service seems to be underdeveloped, and for Asians and Africans, prices in Montenegro are high. Therefore, if there are no Russian tourists, the socio-economic situation in the country will become much worse. One must be an extremely naive person to believe that European or American subsidies will reach ordinary Montenegrins. Montenegrin will receive a salary at the hotel, money from renting a house too. Receive money from the sale of goods and fare, if it will earn a taxi driver. But the "slice" from the Western subsidies to the ordinary citizen does not shine - "Brussels sprouts" will be distributed even at the highest level of the Montenegrin establishment. In the best case, some money will be transferred to middle-level officials and “siloviki”.
Many Montenegrins are increasingly demonstrating dissatisfaction with the policies of their government. Especially negative in the country is the figure of Milo Djukanovic, who recently left the post of head of the Montenegrin government. Although the West is very fond of talking about democracy and the "change of power", Djukanovic has firmly attached himself to the Montenegrin government chairs. The post of prime minister of Montenegro was a hereditary partnomenklatur (his father was also a major functionary in the Union of Communists of Yugoslavia, and Milo himself joined the Central Committee of the Union of Communists at the age of 26 years old when only other institutions ended), Djukanovic took in 1991 a year when he not yet thirty years old. Since that time, he has 26 years, steadily "wanders" from one powerful post to another. In 1991-1998 Djukanovic was the Prime Minister of Montenegro, in 1998-2002. - President, in 2003-2006. - Prime Minister again, in 2006 - Acting Minister of Defense, in 2008-2010 and 2012-2016 - again the prime minister of Montenegro. During this time, Djukanovic managed to be a supporter of the former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, and his opponent, and an ardent supporter of integration into NATO and the EU. In 2016, Mr. Djukanovic as the country's prime minister was replaced by Dusko Markovic. This is a politician of the same cohort, deputy Djukanovic for the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro. In October, a coup attempt was prevented in Montenegro in 2016. According to government officials, a group of Serbian citizens attempted to overthrow and kill Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic. The country's police reported on the arrest of twenty citizens of neighboring Serbia, who, according to the intelligence services, constituted the “backbone” of the conspirators. Allegedly, they planned to seize power in the country, kill Djukanovic and change the foreign policy of Montenegro, reorienting it to cooperation with Moscow.
Almost immediately, they blamed Russia for involvement in the preparation of the coup. The leaders of the conspirators, according to the Montenegrin authorities, were Bratislav Dikic, a colonel of the Serbian police, a former gendarmerie chief of the Serbian Interior Ministry and the leader of the Serbian Patriotic movement, Alexander Singelić, the leader of the Serbian Wolves movement, and Nemanja Ristic, the leader of the Zavetnica movement. In addition, in November 2016, the authorities declared that citizens of the Russian Federation were involved in the preparation of the coup. The Montenegrin Prosecutor’s Office has named names - this is 36-year-old Vladimir Popov and 46-year-old Edward Shishmakov, who were called agents of the Russian special services. Citizens of Russia, Montenegrin special services announced in the international search. The Russian Foreign Ministry denied the allegations of Russia's involvement in the preparation of a coup in Montenegro and called them unfounded.
However, even without Russian participation, the positions of supporters of the notorious European integration in Montenegro look very shaky. A certain part of the Montenegrins, as in their time, and Ukrainian citizens, managed to be fooled by the promises of almost fabulous life after the country's integration with the European Union. But many adequate Montenegrins are well aware that after the final break with Russia they don’t shine any “milk rivers”. Most likely, a serious economic crisis will begin in the country, on the wave of which European companies will buy property that has fallen in price to impossibility. It turns out that Djukanovic and his supporters actually play against the real interests of both Montenegro and the Montenegrin people. But integration into Europe is very beneficial to the corrupt and criminalized part of the Montenegrin political elite, and, alas, it is very numerous. Montenegrin officials and businessmen close to them look at the numerous properties of Russian companies and Russian citizens in their own country with appetite and expect that if there is a final break with Russia, this property will be confiscated under a specious pretext and then redistributed to them.
The only thing you can predict for sure - while maintaining the anti-Russian course, Montenegro does not expect anything good to come. The termination of Russian investments will entail a deterioration of the economic situation in the country, and corrupt clans with strong positions in the Montenegrin leadership will further strengthen their influence, this time with the direct support of the West.
Information