Between the hamburgers and the caliphate
"If danger threatens the Serbian population, the Serbian army will be introduced into Kosovo." The words of President Tomislav Nikolic were uttered a lot of noise both in the media and in the political establishment of Europe in response to the refusal of the Kosovo criminal structures to skip the train with the words “Kosovo is Serbia”.
Their actions are quite understandable and predictable, unlike Nikolic's reaction. When asked to clarify the meaning of the above phrase regarding the prospects for the introduction of troops, the president replied: “If they kill the Serbs, then yes. And not only the army, we will all go. I'll go first, I'm not the first time. ”
What is this, just rhetoric, a vivid memory of the once-existing Yugoslavia - one of the strongest in the socialist bloc? Or something more serious? I think the second, and Belgrade has grounds for this. And there’s probably no other way out, if the Serbs, of course, don’t want to lose their cultural and national identity and turn into a faceless globalized mass of European men, designed to fulfill the aspirations of a significant mass of Middle Eastern and African immigrants without a murmur: don’t work and live well at the expense of others .
Let me remind you that the occupied Serbian territory at the present stage is a criminal enclave that carries out 80 percent of the supply of heroin to Europe and is the cheapest prostitution market in the Old World. Here, in Kosovo, the largest market of stolen cars, mass unemployment, the maximum on the continent, and an extremely low standard of living. Expecting that the situation will change for the better is the height of naivety, which is why Kosovo Albanians are fleeing to neighboring Macedonia. However, this is not about the socio-economic situation in the region, but about the prospects - or lack thereof - of a new war in the Balkans in the event that Serbia makes an attempt to forcibly return the territory belonging to it by right.
Present from Chernomyrdin
In 1999, the United States, with its characteristic cynicism and contempt for non-American life, corrected the “Eisenhower mistake”, that is, fulfilled its long-timed dream since the Second World War: established control over the Balkans, killing over two thousand civilians and injuring twice as many . But for Washington this is nothing more than the cost of "democracy." The occupiers built Camp Bondsteel, the largest military base in Europe, in Kosovo. They don’t really care about the Kosovo Albanians, nor do they care about the “civilized” West. However, the Balkan success of the White House is not due to its military power. As is known, the barbaric bombardments did not give the USA and their NATO satellites the expected result: the Yugoslav army retained its combat capability, and the troops of the nominally strongest bloc in the world did not decide on a ground operation fraught with serious military losses and defeat, as it was in Vietnam, whose ghost did not give rest to the strategists of the alliance. There was no one to go in the first echelon, said Colonel General Leonid Ivashov. According to him, Turkey was to become the main cannon fodder. But now, for obvious reasons, the Turks are no longer forward, and the combat capability of their army, as evidenced by the events in Syria, is not as high as it seemed until recently. Assistance to the Americans came from Moscow in the person of the late Chernomyrdin. He presented the White House of Kosovo. As Leonid Grigorievich later recalled: “The mood of the Serbs was belligerent. If they felt that Russia was behind their backs, they would have gone to all ... When Chernomyrdin turned the talks over to the Americans, the Serbian generals literally with tears in their eyes would say to me: "We didn’t lose, why should we leave and surrender?" If the Yugoslavs had gone southward, the NATO members would still have buried their soldiers, because the Serbs are desperate and courageous warriors. NATO was bombed, bombed, and the Yugoslav army almost all remained unscathed. " This is the opinion of a professional, better than others, representing what the NATO military machine and the once-existing armed forces of Yugoslavia are.
But what happened happened. As evidenced by story, often generals win wars, and politicians lose them. Recall the 1877 – 1878 Russian-Turkish war or the Russian-Japanese war, when all the successes of the Land of the Rising Sun on the battlefields were virtually canceled out in Portsmouth thanks to the firm position of Nicholas II and Sergei Witte who followed his instructions.
At the present stage, NATO aggression in the Balkans cannot be repeated for several reasons. First, the geo-strategic situation in Europe has changed: Western countries will not fight. The experience of the Russian past testifies to the groundless concerns about the allegedly possible bombing of Serbia. In 1878, only the fear of repeating the scenario of the Eastern War did not allow Alexander II to make the Ottoman Empire a property forty years earlier than it actually happened. Although defeated by Prussia, France saw in Russia the only guarantor of its independence. Bismarck would also not fight with us, would rather take part in the division of lands of the once brilliant Ports. Broken in 1866 Moltke Sr., Austria-Hungary turned out to be too weak for a serious conflict with Petersburg and in the second quarter of the 19th century, it was more and more dependent on Germany. And the United Kingdom was not able to confront Russia alone, its fleet in the Sea of Marmara did not pose any danger to us. And Trump's declarations show that he will not get involved in a full-scale military conflict in the Balkans.
Of course, in the problem discussed here, the position of Russia will be decisive, since it is the pivotal country for Serbia, following Huntington's terminology. In addition, the fault line between the Euro-Atlantic (Roman-German) and Orthodox civilizations runs exactly in the Balkans. Understanding the vulnerability for criticism of the term “Orthodox”, I will explain: it implies a common cultural, historical and religious Byzantine matrix for both Russia and Serbia. It is enough to cite as an example the influence of South Slavic book culture on the intellectual - in the widest sense - the formation of Kievan Rus. In turn, the Serbian culture developed under the enormous influence of the Byzantine. Let us recall at least the creation of Orthodox monasteries on Athos - the Russian Panteleimonov and the Serbian Hilandar with their bookishness and architecture.
Why the Balkans are not Europe
The need to shift the center of gravity of Russian geopolitics from an aging and rapidly Islamizing Europe to the East (“Back to Syria”) is obvious. But the latter would be wrong to consider only from a geographical point of view, as well as approach with the same yardstick to the West, which often include Japan and Australia with Canada. Serbia is precisely the East, only not in the Middle Eastern Muslim understanding of it, but in the Byzantine one. After all, the death of the empire in 1453 did not mean its death in spiritual and cultural terms. And from the point of view of the civilization code, the Serbs have a very indirect relation to the Old World. Many have written about this: both geopolitics and cultural scientists, for example, Vadim Kozhinov. In one of his works on the Second World War, he stressed that only Yugoslavia, Albania and Greece had real resistance to the Germans in Europe because of the “preserved deep patriarchal nature of these outlying European countries. They were alien to the orders established in them by Germany, and alien, perhaps, not so much as the Germans themselves, but the European ones, because these countries did not belong to the European civilization of the mid-20th century in their way of life (italics. - I. X. .) ".
Vadim Valerianovich was not alone in such assessments. Even Kissinger discreetly noted that the US aggression against Yugoslavia did not take into account the historical features of this country. In the book The Destruction of Yugoslavia, Professor Alexander Baryshev, recently departed from us, wrote that there were no grounds for believing that the requirements formulated in Rambouillet could have been accepted by Yugoslavia, which the author quotes further Kissinger: “Repeatedly fought with the Ottoman and Austrian empires, fiercely opposed Hitler and Stalin without any help from the Allies, ”and which“ would never agree to surrender to NATO power the historic territory in which there are sacred places for every Serb. ”
Note: Kissinger writes about sacred places for Serbs. And in Europe, as you know, they are connected with the opposition of foreign aggression, that is, they must represent something sacred for the whole of the Old World, like the Catalun fields or Poitiers, where Karl Martell stopped the Arabs in 732 year. One can cite as an example Vienna, under the walls of which Jan Sobieski put an end to the Ottoman expansion. But it is unlikely that anyone will argue that Kosovo is not an integral part of the cultural and historical matrix of Western civilization. This is something sacred for the Byzantine world, at the level of statehood revived - of course, with a number of essential reservations - in the Russian kingdom, and culturally and historically - preserved in the silence of the Serbian and Russian monasteries. Even Serbia, torn apart by the Habsburgs and the Caliphate, did not lose its Orthodox identity, remaining a stranger to the West, as Arnold Toynbey, another prominent thinker and philosopher of the past century, wrote about. Speaking about the reasons that brought the Austro-Hungarian empire to decay, he emphasized that in the second half of the 19th century “the task that the Habsburg monarchy could not solve was lurking in the Balkans. The inability to cope with the national movement in this part of their possessions eventually led the monarchy to a complete collapse. The old Danube shield of Western society, which withstood so many saber blows, was eventually defeated by Serbian bayonets (italics mine. - I. H.). ”
The Danube Shield was nothing more than a Romano-Germanic world hostile to the Serbs. But this was not understood by the pro-Western elite, who came to power in Belgrade at the beginning of the new millennium and surrendered Milosevic and Karadzic to their enemies. She very actively sought to integrate the country into Europe, that is, created, following the terminology of Lev Gumilev, a chimera, because, as a result of the civilization code I mentioned, Serbia cannot be part of the Western world. Otherwise, it will lose its cultural and religious identity. This is understood by the new leaders of the country in the person of Nikolic - in 2008, he, while still a candidate for the presidency, was not against the deployment of Russian military bases in Serbia, one of which may appear in the near future in the city of Leskovac.
Naturally, the question arises about Muslims who flooded Europe. Will they not rush to fight on the side of their Kosovo co-religionists if Serbia tries to return Kosovo by right? One of the most interesting domestic analysts, Yevgeny Satanovsky, believes that no: “The Islamists will not return to the Balkans, they have come to“ conquer ”France and Belgium, and they have no use for Kosovo. That is, those who are already in Europe, Europe and will learn. " But this concerns immigrants, and how Bosnian Muslims will behave is a question, especially considering that Bosnia, along with Albania, is one of the poorest countries in Europe. And yet: Albania is a member of NATO, will its army fight? In my opinion, hardly. The armed forces of this country have a little more than 21 thousands of people. Combat experience is missing. The Air Force - the old Soviet MiGs, which also sells Tirana. The number of Serbian army exceeds 100 thousands of military personnel, and the quantity and quality of its weapons is incomparably higher, especially if we take into account the increasingly strong military cooperation between Moscow and Belgrade. Yes, and the Serbs themselves, perhaps the best warriors along with us on the continent.
Triumvirate for Belgrade
Another problem formulated by the British journalist Mikhail Glenni during the disintegration of Yugoslavia: “The Balkans were again“ Balkanized ”on religious grounds. Now there are two axes, one of which is dressed in the robes of Eastern Orthodoxy, the second is dressed in an Islamic veil, and there is the possibility of an even sharper struggle for influence between the axis of Belgrade - Athens and the Albania - Turkey alliance. ”
The Alliance Belgrade - Athens is hardly possible due to the weakness of Greece and its dependence on NATO. Ankara and Tirana tandem are more likely. Although if Russia will provide diplomatic support to Serbia, Turkey is unlikely to intervene in a possible conflict. If only because it will not receive any benefit from acting on the side of the Albanian criminal structures in Kosovo. And the Americans will not want to share their sphere of influence in the region with the Turks. In addition, the time of the Ottoman Empire is long past, and Erdogan seems to be beginning to understand this.
Let us return to the question of Russia's position in a possible conflict in the Balkans. Of course, its participation can only be diplomatic, because, as Vadim Tsymbursky said: “The most dramatic moments in Russian history of the high-imperial phase turned out to be when Russia’s aspiration for Europe caused a response of state energy from Europe to the“ island ”.
Vadim Leonidovich wrote these lines almost a quarter of a century ago and, I think, at the present stage, the West, and in addition to the Balkans, has where to accumulate exhausted energy. In addition, France is on the threshold of a change of elites from pro-American to nationally oriented. Former Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic, Dominique de Villepin, once said: “Europe has lost its purpose and is guided by fear in foreign policy,” calling on the EU to regain independence and start a dialogue with Russia. Well, a pragmatic look, designed in a DeGoll style. Let me remind you that in 1999, the French were the number one satellite of the States. But even they accused Washington of acting “outside NATO”.
As for Germany, it is not clear where the German elite will drift in the post-Merkelean period. The complexity of the situation of this country is due to a number of factors: its occupation by American troops, the apparent decline in passion in the depths of the indigenous population, its inability to withstand the challenges of aggressive, full of strength and energy of immigrants. But the story is unpredictable, and Germany has repeatedly managed to rise from its knees. In this regard, I would like to recall the geopolitical concept of the outstanding German thinker Karl Haushofer on the creation of a single Eurasian union. By the way, geopolitics in their writings separated Serbia from the rest of Europe. It is unlikely that the current alliance is possible under the auspices of Berlin, which Haushofer saw in the 30s, but rather we can talk about the Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis. This is not about the Franco-German-Russian friendship, but about mutually beneficial cooperation on the basis of common interests - possible, I repeat, only when nationally oriented elites came to power in Paris and Berlin. Belgrade, as a junior partner, could easily have joined this triumvirate, and most importantly, it is within its framework that Kosovo is returned almost painlessly. This idea is not as utopian as it seems at first glance. After all, France was able to rise thanks to de Gaulle. Although in Washington, through the initiation of student unrest, every effort was made to overthrow this man and reduce the Fifth Republic to the category of secondary powers. But the situation may change, and in any case, the West, tired of too unceremonious control by the American partners, especially in the face of its new elites, seems ready to at least neutralize Kosovo’s return to Serbia. The Old World is experiencing, in my opinion, disappointment about the steps taken to set up a European home taken at the turn of the millenniums: in the same Brussels, everyone was already tired of the Poles living the life of either NATO or the European Union, tired of the constant whining of the Baltic countries about the “Russian threat” . And then the West is beginning to see that the criminal structures brought to power in Ukraine are not going to build any democracy, but will beg for money indefinitely and weapon.
One should also take into account such a geostrategic reality, including the Old World, as the division of the world into tellurocracy and thalassocracy - the terminology of Karl Schmitt, which is actively used in Russia by Alexander Dugin. Germany, Russia and Serbia, as well as France, belong to the first one. At the present stage, their interests are to some extent infringed upon by the pillar of thalassocracy - the United States. And with the upcoming change of elites in Paris and Berlin, I do not exclude their rapprochement with Moscow on the ground of opposition to Washington. Of course, the Americans will not allow Belgrade to occupy a dominant position in the Balkans, we are not talking about the elimination of Camp Bondsteel, but with the tough positions of Russia, France and Germany, Washington will have to accept the status quo in the "soft underbelly of Europe."
In conclusion, I note, perhaps, the main reason for the Serbs reason to return Kosovo. From the point of view of their civilization code or, if you will, the archetype of consciousness, the Serbs are an imperial people. What is their mission? Serbian thinker of the past century, St. Nicholas Velimirovich believed that she was in spiritual unity with Russia. This is the first. Second: sometimes political elites follow in the wake of those whom I have repeatedly called passionaries: we recall at least the conquistadors. The same Cortez began his way to the conqueror almost as a state criminal, but it was he who later directed the actions of the Spanish crown. Drake was a pirate, but didn't he take the first step to the greatness of England? Will there be Cortes or Drake in Serbia? Will what happened to us near Stalingrad with the Serbs and was so talented described by the poet Yury Kuznetsov: “But the fathers moved in the ground, the dead rose from the graves, for incomplete reasons for leaving, shadow behind the shadow, the father behind him, the father , leaving to the beginning of the people ... "
Their actions are quite understandable and predictable, unlike Nikolic's reaction. When asked to clarify the meaning of the above phrase regarding the prospects for the introduction of troops, the president replied: “If they kill the Serbs, then yes. And not only the army, we will all go. I'll go first, I'm not the first time. ”
What is this, just rhetoric, a vivid memory of the once-existing Yugoslavia - one of the strongest in the socialist bloc? Or something more serious? I think the second, and Belgrade has grounds for this. And there’s probably no other way out, if the Serbs, of course, don’t want to lose their cultural and national identity and turn into a faceless globalized mass of European men, designed to fulfill the aspirations of a significant mass of Middle Eastern and African immigrants without a murmur: don’t work and live well at the expense of others .
Let me remind you that the occupied Serbian territory at the present stage is a criminal enclave that carries out 80 percent of the supply of heroin to Europe and is the cheapest prostitution market in the Old World. Here, in Kosovo, the largest market of stolen cars, mass unemployment, the maximum on the continent, and an extremely low standard of living. Expecting that the situation will change for the better is the height of naivety, which is why Kosovo Albanians are fleeing to neighboring Macedonia. However, this is not about the socio-economic situation in the region, but about the prospects - or lack thereof - of a new war in the Balkans in the event that Serbia makes an attempt to forcibly return the territory belonging to it by right.
Present from Chernomyrdin
In 1999, the United States, with its characteristic cynicism and contempt for non-American life, corrected the “Eisenhower mistake”, that is, fulfilled its long-timed dream since the Second World War: established control over the Balkans, killing over two thousand civilians and injuring twice as many . But for Washington this is nothing more than the cost of "democracy." The occupiers built Camp Bondsteel, the largest military base in Europe, in Kosovo. They don’t really care about the Kosovo Albanians, nor do they care about the “civilized” West. However, the Balkan success of the White House is not due to its military power. As is known, the barbaric bombardments did not give the USA and their NATO satellites the expected result: the Yugoslav army retained its combat capability, and the troops of the nominally strongest bloc in the world did not decide on a ground operation fraught with serious military losses and defeat, as it was in Vietnam, whose ghost did not give rest to the strategists of the alliance. There was no one to go in the first echelon, said Colonel General Leonid Ivashov. According to him, Turkey was to become the main cannon fodder. But now, for obvious reasons, the Turks are no longer forward, and the combat capability of their army, as evidenced by the events in Syria, is not as high as it seemed until recently. Assistance to the Americans came from Moscow in the person of the late Chernomyrdin. He presented the White House of Kosovo. As Leonid Grigorievich later recalled: “The mood of the Serbs was belligerent. If they felt that Russia was behind their backs, they would have gone to all ... When Chernomyrdin turned the talks over to the Americans, the Serbian generals literally with tears in their eyes would say to me: "We didn’t lose, why should we leave and surrender?" If the Yugoslavs had gone southward, the NATO members would still have buried their soldiers, because the Serbs are desperate and courageous warriors. NATO was bombed, bombed, and the Yugoslav army almost all remained unscathed. " This is the opinion of a professional, better than others, representing what the NATO military machine and the once-existing armed forces of Yugoslavia are.But what happened happened. As evidenced by story, often generals win wars, and politicians lose them. Recall the 1877 – 1878 Russian-Turkish war or the Russian-Japanese war, when all the successes of the Land of the Rising Sun on the battlefields were virtually canceled out in Portsmouth thanks to the firm position of Nicholas II and Sergei Witte who followed his instructions.
At the present stage, NATO aggression in the Balkans cannot be repeated for several reasons. First, the geo-strategic situation in Europe has changed: Western countries will not fight. The experience of the Russian past testifies to the groundless concerns about the allegedly possible bombing of Serbia. In 1878, only the fear of repeating the scenario of the Eastern War did not allow Alexander II to make the Ottoman Empire a property forty years earlier than it actually happened. Although defeated by Prussia, France saw in Russia the only guarantor of its independence. Bismarck would also not fight with us, would rather take part in the division of lands of the once brilliant Ports. Broken in 1866 Moltke Sr., Austria-Hungary turned out to be too weak for a serious conflict with Petersburg and in the second quarter of the 19th century, it was more and more dependent on Germany. And the United Kingdom was not able to confront Russia alone, its fleet in the Sea of Marmara did not pose any danger to us. And Trump's declarations show that he will not get involved in a full-scale military conflict in the Balkans.
Of course, in the problem discussed here, the position of Russia will be decisive, since it is the pivotal country for Serbia, following Huntington's terminology. In addition, the fault line between the Euro-Atlantic (Roman-German) and Orthodox civilizations runs exactly in the Balkans. Understanding the vulnerability for criticism of the term “Orthodox”, I will explain: it implies a common cultural, historical and religious Byzantine matrix for both Russia and Serbia. It is enough to cite as an example the influence of South Slavic book culture on the intellectual - in the widest sense - the formation of Kievan Rus. In turn, the Serbian culture developed under the enormous influence of the Byzantine. Let us recall at least the creation of Orthodox monasteries on Athos - the Russian Panteleimonov and the Serbian Hilandar with their bookishness and architecture.
Why the Balkans are not Europe
The need to shift the center of gravity of Russian geopolitics from an aging and rapidly Islamizing Europe to the East (“Back to Syria”) is obvious. But the latter would be wrong to consider only from a geographical point of view, as well as approach with the same yardstick to the West, which often include Japan and Australia with Canada. Serbia is precisely the East, only not in the Middle Eastern Muslim understanding of it, but in the Byzantine one. After all, the death of the empire in 1453 did not mean its death in spiritual and cultural terms. And from the point of view of the civilization code, the Serbs have a very indirect relation to the Old World. Many have written about this: both geopolitics and cultural scientists, for example, Vadim Kozhinov. In one of his works on the Second World War, he stressed that only Yugoslavia, Albania and Greece had real resistance to the Germans in Europe because of the “preserved deep patriarchal nature of these outlying European countries. They were alien to the orders established in them by Germany, and alien, perhaps, not so much as the Germans themselves, but the European ones, because these countries did not belong to the European civilization of the mid-20th century in their way of life (italics. - I. X. .) ".
Vadim Valerianovich was not alone in such assessments. Even Kissinger discreetly noted that the US aggression against Yugoslavia did not take into account the historical features of this country. In the book The Destruction of Yugoslavia, Professor Alexander Baryshev, recently departed from us, wrote that there were no grounds for believing that the requirements formulated in Rambouillet could have been accepted by Yugoslavia, which the author quotes further Kissinger: “Repeatedly fought with the Ottoman and Austrian empires, fiercely opposed Hitler and Stalin without any help from the Allies, ”and which“ would never agree to surrender to NATO power the historic territory in which there are sacred places for every Serb. ”
Note: Kissinger writes about sacred places for Serbs. And in Europe, as you know, they are connected with the opposition of foreign aggression, that is, they must represent something sacred for the whole of the Old World, like the Catalun fields or Poitiers, where Karl Martell stopped the Arabs in 732 year. One can cite as an example Vienna, under the walls of which Jan Sobieski put an end to the Ottoman expansion. But it is unlikely that anyone will argue that Kosovo is not an integral part of the cultural and historical matrix of Western civilization. This is something sacred for the Byzantine world, at the level of statehood revived - of course, with a number of essential reservations - in the Russian kingdom, and culturally and historically - preserved in the silence of the Serbian and Russian monasteries. Even Serbia, torn apart by the Habsburgs and the Caliphate, did not lose its Orthodox identity, remaining a stranger to the West, as Arnold Toynbey, another prominent thinker and philosopher of the past century, wrote about. Speaking about the reasons that brought the Austro-Hungarian empire to decay, he emphasized that in the second half of the 19th century “the task that the Habsburg monarchy could not solve was lurking in the Balkans. The inability to cope with the national movement in this part of their possessions eventually led the monarchy to a complete collapse. The old Danube shield of Western society, which withstood so many saber blows, was eventually defeated by Serbian bayonets (italics mine. - I. H.). ”
The Danube Shield was nothing more than a Romano-Germanic world hostile to the Serbs. But this was not understood by the pro-Western elite, who came to power in Belgrade at the beginning of the new millennium and surrendered Milosevic and Karadzic to their enemies. She very actively sought to integrate the country into Europe, that is, created, following the terminology of Lev Gumilev, a chimera, because, as a result of the civilization code I mentioned, Serbia cannot be part of the Western world. Otherwise, it will lose its cultural and religious identity. This is understood by the new leaders of the country in the person of Nikolic - in 2008, he, while still a candidate for the presidency, was not against the deployment of Russian military bases in Serbia, one of which may appear in the near future in the city of Leskovac.
Naturally, the question arises about Muslims who flooded Europe. Will they not rush to fight on the side of their Kosovo co-religionists if Serbia tries to return Kosovo by right? One of the most interesting domestic analysts, Yevgeny Satanovsky, believes that no: “The Islamists will not return to the Balkans, they have come to“ conquer ”France and Belgium, and they have no use for Kosovo. That is, those who are already in Europe, Europe and will learn. " But this concerns immigrants, and how Bosnian Muslims will behave is a question, especially considering that Bosnia, along with Albania, is one of the poorest countries in Europe. And yet: Albania is a member of NATO, will its army fight? In my opinion, hardly. The armed forces of this country have a little more than 21 thousands of people. Combat experience is missing. The Air Force - the old Soviet MiGs, which also sells Tirana. The number of Serbian army exceeds 100 thousands of military personnel, and the quantity and quality of its weapons is incomparably higher, especially if we take into account the increasingly strong military cooperation between Moscow and Belgrade. Yes, and the Serbs themselves, perhaps the best warriors along with us on the continent.
Triumvirate for Belgrade
Another problem formulated by the British journalist Mikhail Glenni during the disintegration of Yugoslavia: “The Balkans were again“ Balkanized ”on religious grounds. Now there are two axes, one of which is dressed in the robes of Eastern Orthodoxy, the second is dressed in an Islamic veil, and there is the possibility of an even sharper struggle for influence between the axis of Belgrade - Athens and the Albania - Turkey alliance. ”
The Alliance Belgrade - Athens is hardly possible due to the weakness of Greece and its dependence on NATO. Ankara and Tirana tandem are more likely. Although if Russia will provide diplomatic support to Serbia, Turkey is unlikely to intervene in a possible conflict. If only because it will not receive any benefit from acting on the side of the Albanian criminal structures in Kosovo. And the Americans will not want to share their sphere of influence in the region with the Turks. In addition, the time of the Ottoman Empire is long past, and Erdogan seems to be beginning to understand this.
Let us return to the question of Russia's position in a possible conflict in the Balkans. Of course, its participation can only be diplomatic, because, as Vadim Tsymbursky said: “The most dramatic moments in Russian history of the high-imperial phase turned out to be when Russia’s aspiration for Europe caused a response of state energy from Europe to the“ island ”.
Vadim Leonidovich wrote these lines almost a quarter of a century ago and, I think, at the present stage, the West, and in addition to the Balkans, has where to accumulate exhausted energy. In addition, France is on the threshold of a change of elites from pro-American to nationally oriented. Former Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic, Dominique de Villepin, once said: “Europe has lost its purpose and is guided by fear in foreign policy,” calling on the EU to regain independence and start a dialogue with Russia. Well, a pragmatic look, designed in a DeGoll style. Let me remind you that in 1999, the French were the number one satellite of the States. But even they accused Washington of acting “outside NATO”.
As for Germany, it is not clear where the German elite will drift in the post-Merkelean period. The complexity of the situation of this country is due to a number of factors: its occupation by American troops, the apparent decline in passion in the depths of the indigenous population, its inability to withstand the challenges of aggressive, full of strength and energy of immigrants. But the story is unpredictable, and Germany has repeatedly managed to rise from its knees. In this regard, I would like to recall the geopolitical concept of the outstanding German thinker Karl Haushofer on the creation of a single Eurasian union. By the way, geopolitics in their writings separated Serbia from the rest of Europe. It is unlikely that the current alliance is possible under the auspices of Berlin, which Haushofer saw in the 30s, but rather we can talk about the Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis. This is not about the Franco-German-Russian friendship, but about mutually beneficial cooperation on the basis of common interests - possible, I repeat, only when nationally oriented elites came to power in Paris and Berlin. Belgrade, as a junior partner, could easily have joined this triumvirate, and most importantly, it is within its framework that Kosovo is returned almost painlessly. This idea is not as utopian as it seems at first glance. After all, France was able to rise thanks to de Gaulle. Although in Washington, through the initiation of student unrest, every effort was made to overthrow this man and reduce the Fifth Republic to the category of secondary powers. But the situation may change, and in any case, the West, tired of too unceremonious control by the American partners, especially in the face of its new elites, seems ready to at least neutralize Kosovo’s return to Serbia. The Old World is experiencing, in my opinion, disappointment about the steps taken to set up a European home taken at the turn of the millenniums: in the same Brussels, everyone was already tired of the Poles living the life of either NATO or the European Union, tired of the constant whining of the Baltic countries about the “Russian threat” . And then the West is beginning to see that the criminal structures brought to power in Ukraine are not going to build any democracy, but will beg for money indefinitely and weapon.
One should also take into account such a geostrategic reality, including the Old World, as the division of the world into tellurocracy and thalassocracy - the terminology of Karl Schmitt, which is actively used in Russia by Alexander Dugin. Germany, Russia and Serbia, as well as France, belong to the first one. At the present stage, their interests are to some extent infringed upon by the pillar of thalassocracy - the United States. And with the upcoming change of elites in Paris and Berlin, I do not exclude their rapprochement with Moscow on the ground of opposition to Washington. Of course, the Americans will not allow Belgrade to occupy a dominant position in the Balkans, we are not talking about the elimination of Camp Bondsteel, but with the tough positions of Russia, France and Germany, Washington will have to accept the status quo in the "soft underbelly of Europe."
In conclusion, I note, perhaps, the main reason for the Serbs reason to return Kosovo. From the point of view of their civilization code or, if you will, the archetype of consciousness, the Serbs are an imperial people. What is their mission? Serbian thinker of the past century, St. Nicholas Velimirovich believed that she was in spiritual unity with Russia. This is the first. Second: sometimes political elites follow in the wake of those whom I have repeatedly called passionaries: we recall at least the conquistadors. The same Cortez began his way to the conqueror almost as a state criminal, but it was he who later directed the actions of the Spanish crown. Drake was a pirate, but didn't he take the first step to the greatness of England? Will there be Cortes or Drake in Serbia? Will what happened to us near Stalingrad with the Serbs and was so talented described by the poet Yury Kuznetsov: “But the fathers moved in the ground, the dead rose from the graves, for incomplete reasons for leaving, shadow behind the shadow, the father behind him, the father , leaving to the beginning of the people ... "
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