It is worth noting that with the 50-70 T-64BV, sent to the front, in a big attack on the Nameless or Novoazovsk APU, they don’t dare to go, but they can try to take a sudden blow to Comintern, Lenin, Zaichenko and Sakhanka. And here everything depends solely on the number of anti-tank weapons and the MLRS that are at the disposal of the DNR army in the southern direction. Looking at the latest attempts to capture the Cominternovo and “Daring”, as well as the total loss of equipment and personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we can say with confidence that these funds are quite enough to block such local offensives, even taking into account the numerical superiority of ukrov.
But, judging by the three details of the operational-tactical nature observed during the last week, Kiev is not going to limit itself to attempts at a local breakthrough: a general attack on the Donetsk People's Republic can become the most likely outcome.
As you can see, the flight trajectory of the reconnaissance flight of the UAV RQ-4A this time took place at the Donetsk and Volovakh ON, where the most intensive preparations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are observed for the punitive operation, and this is not a coincidence, but a natural pattern
First, it is the ongoing reconnaissance flights of the Global Hawk unmanned RQ-4A in the immediate vicinity of the contact line in the Donbas. The last such flight was observed in early February of 2017, immediately after the critical aggravation of the situation on the Donetsk sector of the Western Front of New Russia. The American strategic reconnaissance drone spent some time patrolling along the front line between Donetsk and White Kamenka at a record distance of 55-60 km. This convergence also says a lot: in order to obtain a photographically accurate radar image in the synthetic aperture mode (SAR), which can clearly classify the military equipment of the People’s Militia of the Armed Forces of the DPR, the Global Hawk radar AN / ZPY-2 should reduce the distance with the reconnaissance objects up to about 120 - 150 km. The convergence with the line of contact to 60 km gives a depth of view of the territory of the DNR 35 km in the “Telmanovsky Isthmus” region, plus about 50 km the depth of the Russian Federation. This suggests the following:
- The Pentagon has very strongly focused on the operational reserves of NM DPR, located under Telmanovo, as well as in the Starobeshevsky and Amvrosiyivsky districts, which will provide the Ukrainian command with irreplaceable assistance in developing the most successful tactics of the general offensive with the least losses and optimal involvement of military assets involved in the operation ;
- The European Command of the US Armed Forces continues to provide Kiev with comprehensive intelligence information on all possible rearrangements and other actions of the Russian Ground Forces units both on the border with Ukraine and on the border with the LDNR in case Moscow finally acts directly against the republics the guarantor of the safety of the Russian population of Donbass. As you can see, however much some of our media does not “holily and cherish” the Trump regime, this did not affect the situation with Kiev’s information support at the military-political level. The United States continues to assist the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in planning the "final atrocity" in the Donbas, which may begin in the coming days or weeks. Remember: it was after the increased reconnaissance missions of RQ-4A over the Donbas in November-December of the 2016 year that an attempt was made to break through the APU at Debaltsevo HE. Exactly the same will happen this time, only already on all sectors of the front.
Secondly, the transfer of the remaining operational-tactical missile systems "Tochka-U" to Kramatorsk and Avdiivka, as well as delivery to the Donbass huge railroad trains with armored vehicles and artillery from the warehouses of Western and Central Ukraine. The deployment of launchers of the Tochka-U complexes in Avdiivka has its operational tactical role. The “dead zone” of the OTBR 9М79-1 is approximately 18-20 km, and therefore Donetsk from these positions with “Dots” will not be fired. These missiles were procured to deliver powerful strikes against the groupings of the DPR Armed Forces in Telmanovsky and Novoazovsky districts, the distance to which from Avdiivka is from 70 to 125 km. The range of "Points-U", deployed in Kramatorsk, does not cover the southern part of the DPR, and therefore it is their plan to use against the fortified areas and the LDNR army corps in the area of Debaltseve and Donetsk. Railway trains with hundreds of platforms of armored vehicles and barreled artillery mostly arrive in Artyomovsk, where they are unloaded and distributed between Debaltsevskaya arc, as well as Gorlovsk and Donetsk operational directions.
Thirdly, this is the redeployment of the 2 Battalion (80 military) of the 24 Mechanized Brigade from Popasnaya to Avdiivka, as well as the continued supply of ammunition for Grad and Uragan multiple rocket launchers, which will last for weeks or even regular months. shelling of Donetsk and other settlements of the republic.
All these 3 factors clearly indicate the impending large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on two operational areas at once - Telman and Novoazovsk, as well as the systematic undermining of the defensive capabilities of the DPR army units near Donetsk and Debaltsevo with the help of a permanent artillery fire from the SA and RSZO. The inclusion of the Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration, Gorlovka, Debaltsevo and the northern borders of the Lugansk People's Republic in the first plan of the general offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kiev is hardly considered, and there are two arguments for this:
- as the practice of warfare shows, it is absolutely pointless and destructive to attack the LDNR in operational areas with deep rear zones, this is fraught with instant “origin” of numerous tactical “boilers” (in the area of the main agglomerations of the DPR, the largest group of DPR people's militia units are concentrated with depths of 70 and more kilometers);
- on the territories controlled by Kiev, located behind the line of the North-Western and Northern fronts of the LDNR, Ukrainian military formations have a powerful (echeloned) network of strong points, and therefore in the General Staff of the Supreme Soviet they are sure that the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of New Russia in this direction will start last, after success on the southern front, repair trophies, etc.
The first echelon is represented by localities (from west to east): Krasnogorovka, Avdiivka, Novgorodskoye, Dzerzhinsk, Svetlodarsk, Troitskoe, Popasnaya, Zolotoe, Bakhmutovka, Petrovka, Nizhneteploe, Stanitsa Luganskaya. The second echelon is more powerful, and is represented by the cities: Kurakhovo, Selidovo, Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar, Artyomovsk, Soledar, Lisichansk, Severodonetsk and Novoaydar. The third echelon is represented by even larger cities, some of which have command and head value: Constantinople, Krasnoarmeysk, Druzhkovka , Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Nikolaevka, Krasny Liman, Seversk and Rubezhnoye. At this point, the maximum that the LDNR army corps will be able to do initially is to free the nearest cities that are part of the first defensive echelon of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the main of which is Svetlodarsk - the tactical rudiment of the former “Debaltsevsky Cauldron”.
Another thing is the Western and South-Western fronts of Novorossia (Waveha and Mariupol IT). In these areas, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, against the background of multiple numerical superiority of the motorized infantry brigades, are significantly lagging behind in terms of a developed system of fortified areas due to the absence of a large number of large settlements. The main of them are only Mariupol, bounded by the coastline of the Azov Sea, as well as Volnovakha. The largest number of strong points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, receiver and rocket artillery batteries and armored units are concentrated in these cities and their surroundings. At the same time, between these cities there is a large number of small villages such as Stepnoye, Novognatovka, Bugas, Prokhorovka, Anadol, Privolnoe, Kalchik and Makedonovka. Here, the DPR Armed Forces can develop a much more rapid and successful counter-offensive, create a “Volnovakhsky cauldron” and continue the offensive in a southerly direction, forming the “Mariupol Cauldron”.
Motorized rifle companies and NM regiments of the DPR in this area have practically no serious obstacles, since it is much easier to free villages from Ukrainian militants than to spend weeks clearing cities like Artyomovsk or Konstantinovka. The above villages of Volnovakhsky and Mariupol districts can be ukrov cleaned in just a couple of weeks. It is for this reason that Kiev today is trying with all its forces to achieve 4-, 5-multiple overweight in Volnovakha and Mariupol (on Telman and Novoazovsk ON) and go on the offensive to the east until the moment when the General Staff of the DPR begins to concentrate an additional military group to repel Prorva troops junta.
SOME DETAILS OF THE COMING LARGE-SCALE BATTLE ACTIONS ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT DNI. PREPARATION OF OPERATIONAL TACTICAL PLATSIDE FOR LIBERATION OF DONBASS FROM CONTROL OF MAT
Virtually all the knowledgeable population of LDNR, Russia and the occupied part of the Donbass of the Donbass are confident that a countdown has been launched to the next attempt to conduct an offensive operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbas. All the tactical nuances observed in our work above indicate that the most active and decisive battles can break out on the Western and South-Western fronts of the DPR. Also, in view of the appearance exactly in this sector, 5 and 7 in February of 2017 of the year, the American strategic reconnaissance drone RQ-4A “Global Hawk”, with high probability it can be argued that the escalation will begin by mid-late February. Given that the NMD DPR army corps has long been given the go-ahead for the reciprocal use of large-caliber artillery and other weapons, units of the Southern Front will be able to restrain Ukrainian aggression for quite a long time, continue to blindly carry out Minsk-2.0 and observe how Grads and Uraganes ukropovskie whole villages and cities of young republics are leveled with the earth. But for so long it will hardly continue. In the framework of the majority of military exercises conducted by the motorized rifle units of the DPR People’s Militia Corps, one of the main points was the organization of a successful counterattack; and the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, wished the army units of the DPR army an abundance of shells and cartridges. These are the first “Square” signals that in the event of an outbreak of hostilities no one else will mess around with the inadequate Kiev regime.
Apparently, the militia will have to confront the junta alone, but it’s good, with the proper work of the military police. As usual, an attempt to advance the motorized rifle units of the Armed Forces will be preceded by a powerful many hours of artillery preparation both in the militia strongholds and in the civilian population of numerous front-line settlements in the southern part of the DPR. With continuous fire from self-propelled guns, transported howitzers and mortars, the line of contact with the republic will begin to cross tank companies of Ukrainian MBT T-64BV and BMP-2. In response, the DPR NM gunners will engage in a tough “counter-battery game”, repeatedly striking with Grad and D-30 howitzers, Gvozdika self-propelled guns and other artillery at Ukrainian positions, and anti-tank calculations with Metis-M systems , "Baby" and "Bassoon" will begin a big hunt for Ukrainian tanks, - the game of depletion will begin. The balance of power at this moment can be only 2: 1 or 3: 1 in favor of the Ukrainian forces. The size of the DPR army in the AFU offensive section can be significantly increased due to the large influx of volunteers from Russia, including the Republic of Crimea, and also due to the partial redeployment of individual brigades or battalions from some sections of the DPR Northern Front, from which a general offensive is not yet expected.
Given the great experience and the highest motivation of the NM DPR military personnel, we can expect the junta’s troop to gradually wear down and stop an offensive operation, but this will not last too long. Kiev will pull up additional deprotected units of military equipment and "cannon fodder" to continue the war. Consequently, it will not require a simple arrest of the APU breakthrough on the Southern Front, but a large-scale counter-offensive of the DPR NM in the western operational direction, the goal of which will be the release of Volnovakhi, Mariupol, and then the entire south-western part of the former Donetsk region. But for such a large operation, additional military units will need to be released, most of which are now forced to control the western borders of Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration and Gorlovka from local attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Novgorod, Avdiivka, Krasnogorovka and Marinka. Freeing up these resources is really only one way - cleaning these suburbs of Donetsk from the Ukrainian militants with their further pushing to the line "Tarasivka - Selidovo - Kurakhovo", which is located in 20 — 30 km from Donetsk. This will minimize the regular shelling of the western regions of Donetsk, Makeyevka, and Gorlovka with large-caliber artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and also put an end to the constant attacks of Ukrainian armored vehicles on the fortified areas of the DPR army in the Petrovsky, Kirovsky and Kievsky districts of Donetsk. After taking these measures, about 1,5-2 thousand DPR personnel, as well as several dozen units of wheeled and tracked armored vehicles that are now involved in the defense of the Yasinovatsky checkpoint, the eastern part of the Avdeevsky industrial zone and the DAP environs, can be sent as reinforcements to the areas of the counter attack .
As for the first stage of the counteroffensive of the NM units of the DPR, the tactically most acceptable direction is the Ugledaro. The "trick" is that the city of Ugledar is located just 25 km from the most powerful Donetsk and Dokuchaevsky operational-tactical groupings of the DPR troops, and no matter how much Kiev strengthens this city, taking it by storm will be several times easier and faster than Volnovakha. Artillery batteries from the southern suburbs of Donetsk, Yelenovka and Dokuchaevsk will be able to provide fire support to the DPR motorized infantry in the attack on Ugledar, which will facilitate the task. This local offensive will create the so-called “Ugledarskiy ledge”, which will include n. Ugledar, Novomikhailovka, Olginka and Novotroitskoe. The creation of the “Ugledarskiy bulge” will solve two strategically important tasks for the general counter-offensive of the DPR army:
- for the 4-5-thousandth group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Volnovakha, the most important transport artery will be blocked - the “Novotroitskoye - Velikaya Novoselka-Pavlograd” road, which allows to receive material and technical support from central Ukraine;
- an offensive “fist” will be formed along the line “Ugledar - Novotroitskoye” to take Volnovakhi into a tactical cauldron; fire support for advanced armored units of the DPR Armed Forces in this area will be provided with mortar batteries from Novotroitsky (120-mm mortars 2BX11), as well as large-caliber receiver and rocket artillery from Vladimirovka, Dokuchaevsk and Styly;
- in the southern part of the “Ugledarsky bulge” there are two commanding heights at once (the mound Tomb-Kirillovka with a height of 236 m and 228-meter height north of Olginka), allowing to control all movements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the northern outskirts of Volnovakhi, this will give the militias a huge advantage in continuing the counter-offensive .
After the creation of the “Ugledarsky ledge”, the advancement of the units of the DPR NM can be continued southward towards the villages of Rovnopol and Ivanovka. After stripping them, Volnovakha will be in the “half boiler”. Simultaneously with the battles for the two above-mentioned settlements, it will be necessary to advance the assault group of the DPR army along the Mirnoye-Andreevka-Donskoy line. Here is another rather important height - the Mogila-Kosach barrow 257 m high. Full fire control of the Donetsk-Mariupol highway opens from it. Thus, all the easy ways to support the Vologovskaya APU group with new equipment and ammunition for it will be blocked, and from the side of Prokhorovka and Novognatovka, you can safely start an offensive towards Bugas and Volnovakha, trimming the "half-boiler". For this stage of the counteroffensive, the DPR armed forces can take advantage of the next historical the height of Donbass - the mound "Mogila-Dubovka" with a height of 240 m, which is located 15 km east of Volnovakha.
It should be noted in advance that the battles for Volnovakha will be fierce enough, and it will take from 3 to 6 or even more weeks to completely oust the Ukrainian military formations from this sector of the front. This is due to the fact that almost the entire southern part of the Donbass is replete with a huge number of mounds and heights, some of which are now assigned to the militants of the junta. After taking Volnovakhi under control, all key opornikov APU in the western operational direction will be eliminated, and the command of the NM DNR will be able to continue cleaning the south-western part of the former Donetsk region. The main objectives in the further offensive will be the northern and north-western approaches to Mariupol - Maloyanisol, Kremenevka, Kalchik and Volodarskoe. It was these settlements that formed the “Mariupol Cauldron” in the summer of 2014, before an unacceptable and disastrous order to return the units of the DPR Armed Forces to early positions in the Shyrokyne and Gnutovo areas, and it was their stripping that would be the harbinger of the complete liberation of Mariupol from the Kiev regime.
Despite the fact that even after engaging volunteers, the balance of power in the Donbass theater of war will tend to favor the Ukrainian armed forces (with an approximately 2-2,5 multiple advantage), the number of armored vehicles, mortars, artillery, and anti-tank complexes will remain approximately 1: 1,5. According to unofficial data, the Don People’s Republic of Donetsk alone is armed with 300 - 400 MBT of various types (from T-64BV to T-72А / B), 500 - 600 BBM, more than 600 mortars of various calibers, more than 300 units. barreled artillery and 150 units. MLRS Grad, as well as thousands of RPGs and several hundred anti-tank systems. With such arsenals, Donetsk can well afford any option to counter the Ukrainian invaders.
By noon and evening of February 12, at the time of the completion of our review, the situation on the DNR fronts remained very tense. The most active operational directions were - Svetlodarskoye, Gorlovskoye and Donetsk. From the direction of n. The Lugansk (Svetlodarsk area) artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces opened fire from large-caliber artillery towards the militia strongholds in Molochny. K 17: 00 the situation in this square has become more complicated: the intensity of the fire has increased significantly. At the northern approaches to Gorlovka, p.t.t. Zaitsevo, traditionally for this sector, continued medium-intensity combat using large-caliber machine guns, hand grenade launchers and “boot” (LNG-9). In the Donetsk direction, north of the ABP (on the 8-kilometer stretch from Krutoy Beam to Verkhnetoretsky), there is a low-intensity armored combat using MBT, infantry fighting vehicles and mortars. The number of attacks on the territory of the republic for the last day ranges from 450 to 1350.
At the same time, according to data voiced by the deputy commander of the operational command of the DPR, Eduard Basurin, referring to the intelligence structures of the republic, the need to quickly oust the Ukrainian operational-tactical group from the western outskirts of Donetsk to preserve the security of the civilian population and the DPR units is once again confirmed. So, over the past week, to the zone of the backup 1-th separate tank brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the settlement. Cheerful Guy arrived 203-mm ACS 2C7 "Peony". This village is located just 40 km from the center of Donetsk, which allows the Ukrainian "Pion" to fire on all areas of the capital of the DPR. Also, according to the republic's intelligence, several units are deployed in the settlement. Pavlopol (north of Mariupol). Based on their performance characteristics, practically all the settlements and strategically important nodes of the DPR in the south of the republic, including Novoazovsk, Telmanovo, Sedovo and even the border areas of the Russian Federation (the range of the ZOF-43 OB is 37,4 km, active reactive ZOF-44 - km 47,5). In Novoselidovka (25 km west of Donetsk) arrived a few MLRS "Grad", and in the even closer n. Novomikhaylovka pulled up 152-mm transported howitzers "Hyacinth-B" for shelling the southern regions of Donetsk and Dokuchaevsk.
There is a similar situation under Mariupol: near the village of Berdyansk (on the Novoazovsk ON) dill placed at least 3 BM MLRS Grad, and in Water - almost 2 batteries 120-mm mortars 2B11. Everything indicates that all preparations of the offensive assault "bones" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the contact line have already been brought to a logical conclusion, and the observed movements of artillery are only a hurry preparation for the beginning of the next round of aggression, after which the Armed Forces simply have to cease to exist as a military unit. And whatever the outcome of the next meeting of the Contact Group, scheduled for February 15, a further ignore of “Minsk” by Kiev will eventually lead to full-scale military actions.