Military Review

According to the clinch law

19
45-th President of the United States entered into full control of the country. The election campaign, unprecedentedly dirty about Trump’s candidate, unprecedented protests against the new president in the US before he could do anything, accusations of ties with Russia, even claims that he was a Kremlin protege and Moscow influenced the American electorate, testify : an extraordinary event occurred. Trump himself is an unusual figure even in his style of behavior.


The USA is one of the main players in the international arena, a key country in the financial sphere. Therefore, the whole world, analysts and politicians are trying to understand where Trump will go, what his strategy may be taking into account various factors and what will global and regional scale lead to.

It is especially important to predict a possible American strategy for Russia, since not only the foreign policy situation for our country, but also the internal situation depends on it.

First of all, we need to assess Trump as an individual and specialist, his position in the political spectrum of the United States and relations with transnational elites. To analyze the internal and foreign policy position of the United States, to identify the most critical problems and effective ways to solve them. Try to identify the real goals of Trump and his team as president of the United States. Next, it is important to establish what forces and how they can counteract the new president in his actions. Accordingly, to predict that they will be able to oppose Trump and the forces on which he relies. Finally, it is necessary to draw conclusions regarding the objective interests of the United States in the global and domestic aspects. Only by the results of such an analysis will it be possible to give a more or less reasonable forecast of the development of the situation in the USA and in the world.

Let's start with the key figure. To assess the identity of any person is very difficult, and especially such an extraordinary, like Trump. However, if you rely on the well-known information about his life and activities as a businessman and a politician, his reaction in the world and in the internal political arena, a lot can be clarified.

Antiglobalist

It is noteworthy that a significant part of the political establishment of the United States and Europe, the transnational business community, Trump is perceived as an unacceptable figure as president. In an interview following the Davos Forum, Chubais described his general atmosphere as panicky, comparable only to the beginning of 2009, when, as a result of the crisis, many had a sense of the collapse of capitalism as a system. And this panic is caused by the election of Trump. The world order of the twentieth century is over, the German Foreign Minister said. Not only representatives of the US Democratic Party, but also Republican elites demonstrate hostility towards Trump. Thus, the conclusion is unequivocal: Trump is not built into the Western political establishment, perceiving his appearance as president as a severe and unexpected blow.

What kind of power does Trump represent? Whose interests are expressed? Answers need to turn to the analysis of the foundations of its ideological platform. He never revealed his views explicitly, except for slogans about the return of power in the USA to the people and the revival of American power. However, actions lead to the conclusion that it relies on a clear ideological system.

It can be defined as an explicit traditionalist, seeking, in particular, to restore the status of a classical family that does not perceive sodomy as the norm of life. The borders of the country in the understanding of Trump are as they were throughout the XX and previous centuries, that is impenetrable to refugees. He believes that the state’s right to regulate migration policy is natural.

Ideologically, Trump is a classic capitalist of the industrial age, convinced that national power is determined by industrial potential. Accordingly, globalization, involving the division of labor between countries and the de-industrialization of the United States, is unacceptable. This determined an ideological conflict with the transnational elites and their creatures in the US political establishment. At the same time, this is what gave Trump the support of medium and small American entrepreneurship, as well as layers of the proletariat connected with the traditional industrial business, which ensured the victory in the presidential race.

Thus, Trump is an expression of the interests of those business layers of the United States, which are focused on the re-industrialization of America, the restoration of its full independence from the influence of TNCs.

Political creatures of transnational elites in other countries perceive Trump as the destroyer of the world order. In turn, the parties and movements of the West, focused on restoring the sovereignty of their countries, see it as an example to follow.

According to the clinch lawNegative attitude to the trump of the highest establishment of the United States determines the serious problems that will inevitably arise during the announced course. The powers of the president are substantially limited by the congress and the senate. This means that many of Trump’s programmatic provisions will be rejected by these legislative bodies. He, in turn, using the veto, will begin to block unacceptable for him the initiatives of the Congress and the Senate. There may be a clinch situation.

Trump's personal economic independence is fully secured - the multi-billionaire was able to finance the election campaign himself and easily ensure the existence of his empire and, accordingly, his family, being the president of the United States. However, this same empire can become a channel of effective pressure, because for any owner his business is his beloved child, for the sake of which he will go to great lengths. In addition, by American standards in comparison with the main opponents - TNCs are not so big that they can significantly influence the political situation in the United States based on them.

At the same time, the control of the American president over the state budget is by no means absolute. Here, too, the Congress and the Senate play their part. Therefore, compromises are inevitable. The dominant position in the US economy is occupied by TNCs, which will create problems with attracting extrabudgetary funds for the implementation of presidential programs. An alternative can only be an open war against a part of transnational structures with reliance on others, and therefore in the interests of the latter. That is, Trump's position, taking into account the radical nature of the transformations announced by him, suggests the likelihood of a sharp exacerbation of economic confrontation within the United States and globally. At the same time, the 45 president has the right to count on the support of large and medium-sized industrial businesses in the United States, which are not part of transnational corporations. Nevertheless, it is unlikely to be able to pursue an independent economic policy.

The figures, placed by Trump on key posts, have different, sometimes polar views on private issues of US development. The president holds the position of arbitrator. But he has no full-fledged team of like-minded people. This means that there is no high-quality information and analytical support for its activities as the country's leader, independent of the American special services and think tanks that traditionally support the activities of American presidents such as the RAND Corporation, where the influence of transnational elites dominates. This is fraught with the risks of making inappropriate decisions made by Trump's opponents to discredit him.

The conclusion is that Trump will face powerful opposition from the American establishment, which is closely associated with transnational elite groups that use the US as a tool to implement their geopolitics, which he will not always be able to overcome. And it will be forced to maneuver, which can be perceived as an inconsistency of politics.

Dominant choleric

Now we turn to the personal qualities that determine the ability of a political leader to influence processes in society. Among these, intellectual and managerial potential, consistency and predictability of actions stand out above all. The psychological type is also important, on which the leadership style and tactical methods of conducting the policy depend.

The key personal quality of a leader is his intellectual potential, which can be defined as the ability to process social and political information in real time in the amount and quality that ensures an adequate response to the situation. This potential is determined by methodological training, experience in political activities and relationships at various levels of the social hierarchy and in different strata, as well as the ideological basis.

The latter is the most important part of the intellectual potential and is a set of knowledge and ideas about the universe, society and the general directions of development. It allows the leader to correctly formulate the goals of the state he heads and the ways to achieve them. Judging by Trump's behavior, his assessment of the internal situation in the United States and the state of international relations, he has a more or less clear ideological platform.

At the same time, Trump and his teams are not clearly qualified in geopolitics. This, in particular, is manifested in the fact that it clearly places the economy above geopolitics. This is evidenced by his actions and statements regarding NATO and global American initiatives to create trans-partnerships - the Pacific and the Atlantic. Regarding the first, he issued a decree on the withdrawal of the United States from him, and on the second he simply closed consultations on the formation. By declaring that NATO is outdated, he thereby jeopardized the very existence of this bloc. In fact, this is a revision of the foundations of traditional American geopolitics of the last 60 years. Meanwhile, it was expansionism that provided the United States with domination and the possibility of parasitism on the resources of the third world countries. The high level of well-being of American society was determined to a decisive extent by just this. And NATO remains the most effective instrument of US domination in Europe, including in its markets. The destruction of the alliance is fraught with a significant weakening of American influence in the region or even the withdrawal of the United States from Europe. And this will quickly make the EU an economic rival for the United States.

Trump lacks experience in political activities and information warfare. His statements and actions are sometimes shocking, are made in such a form that gives opponents a trump card for attacks.

He clearly has excellent instinct and methodical preparation for overcoming crisis situations, which he has repeatedly hit. Undoubtedly, he has a wealth of experience in relations at various levels of the social hierarchy, which again follows from stories his business. In the election campaign, Trump showed exceptional psychological stability.

In general, Trump's intellectual potential should be rated as much higher than its predecessors in the 21st century. 45-th president is able to make difficult decisions and not be afraid of responsibility. Apparently, this is dangerous for transnational leaders who seek to see puppets at the top post.

The other most important personal quality of a leader is organizational potential, which means the ability to direct the activities of your team and the state apparatus as a whole towards the achievement of stated goals in a chosen manner within a set time frame. This potential is determined by experience, special methodological training, the ability to select and arrange personnel, personal commanding qualities. Judging by the facts from the life of Trump, here he is perfect. His whole story is a continuous and successful organizational activity as the head of a large corporation. This is evidenced by his election campaign, the main engine of which was himself.

An important quality of a leader of any power, especially such as the USA, is consistency and predictability. The first is usually understood as the ability to carry out a certain line when exposed to external destabilizing factors and to achieve goals. Predictability - the possibility of political forces and society more or less accurately predict the behavior of the leader in a certain situation.

Consistency gives the image of a stable, reliable politician and ultimately provides confidence (positive or negative depending on the ratio of the political orientation of the leader and a given social group) of elites and allies. Predictability ensures certainty of relationships with external forces and society. On the one hand, it improves the quality of interaction with internal forces, expands the influence on the social base, and on the other hand, it clarifies the attitude of the opposition. The number of neutral players is reduced. The predictability of the leader polarizes external forces.

Today we can state that Trump is consistent. His actions in the first days after the inauguration showed that campaign promises are not empty words, but a guide to action. Given the projected increase in pressure on him, and so unprecedentedly strong, we can confidently assume that he will be forced to maneuver. But to the stated goals go aggressively. However, the predicted Trump can only be called partly. It is possible to calculate his final goals and the general strategy for achieving them. But the tactics even for the near future is quite difficult. This is determined by its economic and informational and analytical dependence on structures that are completely or partially hostile to it, and the characteristics of the psychological type.

It can be considered choleric pronounced dominant type. He is inclined to quick, sometimes not quite reasonable decisions, which he takes, relying on his mind and flair. Moreover, it is ready to act contrary to the recommendations of experts. Opponents have fewer opportunities to influence it. At the same time, this situation creates favorable conditions for its management using information confrontation technologies.

To summarize: Trump's strengths as a leader and personality are his clear ideological position, high intellectual and organizational potential, as well as the sequence of actions demonstrated to them, the ability to independently make decisions and be responsible for them. The weak sides include inadequate training as a global politician, economic and informational and analytical dependence on hostile structures, as well as a choleric personality type that creates favorable conditions for covert management of his opponents.
Author:
Originator:
http://vpk-news.ru/articles/35096
19 comments
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  1. Andrey Yuryevich
    Andrey Yuryevich 11 February 2017 06: 35
    +12
    zadolbali about the American oligarchs ... let's talk about ours:
    1. venaya
      venaya 11 February 2017 06: 53
      +10
      Quote: Andrew Y.
      zadolbali about the American oligarchs ... let's talk about ours:

      In TNCs, our or not our oligarchs do not exist. They are all true internationalists! That is, absolutely all nations, peoples, or states are milked. All, without exception.
      1. Andrey Yuryevich
        Andrey Yuryevich 11 February 2017 06: 55
        +5
        Quote: venaya
        In TNCs, our or not our oligarchs do not exist. They are all true internationalists! That is, absolutely all nations, peoples are milked

        they have a "family contract" ...- "love" everyone.
  2. Masya masya
    Masya masya 11 February 2017 07: 09
    +6
    Lynch Court

    here in this all america .... true !!!! we are different !!!
  3. cap
    cap 11 February 2017 07: 10
    +1
    The new president’s team is not a gift. It’s worth a look. There’s nothing good for us.
    More details to D. Trump's team here:
    http://rusjev.net/2017/01/20/vsya-prezidentskaya-
    rat-kto-est-kto-v-komande-donalda-trampa /
    1. To be or not to be
      To be or not to be 11 February 2017 10: 40
      +2
      From a speech on February 9, 2017: to the Subcommittee on Foreign Affairs of the US Senate General Philip M. Bridlaw,
      Professors, Sam Nunn School, Georgia Institute of Technology;
      Former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO in Europe; Former Commander and US European Command, Council Director of the Atlantic Council

      Theme “United States, Russia and challenges for the future”
      Breedlove made a presentation Topic: "US policy towards Russia."
      (spoke on the docent of the Atlantic Council)

      1.About Russia
      Russia is a great power with a rich history, the largest country in the world by territory, and a player of influence in
      Europe, East Asia and the Middle East. Russia has the second most powerful military in the world: nuclear
      an arsenal comparable to ours and conventional forces, which are the most powerful in Europe. While the economy is stagnating and hit hard by low oil and natural gas prices, it is still the 12th largest in dollars
      We can't just fire Russia as a regional force

      2 Areas of cooperation

      It makes sense for our government to start dialogues with Russia
      We have a lot to discuss with the Kremlin
      A. The most urgent issue concerns Moscow’s current practice in military aircraft
      in dangerous proximity, and sometimes without their transponders on, American and other NATO aircraft and
      ships. Such cases are fatal and even a clash between the US and Russia. We need to restore
      substantive ties between our armed forces of the two countries in order to avoid such incidents
      B. Nuclear disarmament. This process was frozen by Obama's first administration
      B. Potential for joint action
      against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and other Salafists of extremists .... . Moscow's main goal in Syria is
      back up Assad's weak, yet wild, regime.
      G. Iran. Moscow is an active partner of Iran in Syria. As we saw recently, Iran
      even went on admission of Russian military aircraft to the base for a short period of time; but at the same time they worked with us and with
      others to persuade Tehran to sign an agreement on its nuclear program. The Trump administration says it will improve the terms of this agreement. Is Moscow ready for
      partnership on this? Or does she prefer good relations with Tehran due to stability in the Persian Gulf?
      D. Space exploration and the fight against drug trafficking ..

      According to the first part of Bridlav's conclusion:

      ..We can do important things when the USA and
      Russian interests intersect.
      We should not, however, be naive. There are a number of critical areas in which Moscow is a daunting task for US interests, including vital ones.
      1. To be or not to be
        To be or not to be 11 February 2017 10: 41
        +2
        The second part is the vital interests of the United States:

        1.About the United States Politics for NATO
        We are vitally interested in maintaining a strong NATO and vibrant Europe
        2. About malware in Europe. Ukraine, the Baltic States and the Russian Federation
        President Putin has made it clear that he wants to change order after the end of the Cold War, established in Europe. He and senior Russian officials justified the aggression in Ukraine, arguing that the right to protect ethnic Russians and they said that this principle is applicable elsewhere.
        Moscow hinted by actions and statements that if they succeed in Ukraine, there will be future goals. These goals may include our allies in NATO, Estonia and Latvia, where ethnic Russians make up 25 percent of the population. We are vitally interested in ending the revanchist policies of Moscow before they move to other countries, and especially our NATO allies in the Baltic countries.
        While we are conducting a dialogue with Moscow, we need to strengthen the presence of NATO in the Baltic countries and other eastern members of the Alliance. Trump Administration Must Approve Summit Decisions
        And Trump and the administration, which understands the value of negotiations from a position of strength, and support NATO in the confrontation with Krkmml. It should fully support Ukraine against Kremlin aggression.

        3.About cyber threat and dialogue
        We must also significantly increase our cyber defense in order to counter the operation that the Kremlin is conducting against us and others. We also need to consider how we can respond to future cyber attacks in this way. to discourage them from continuing this practice. ,, To convince them to engage in a serious dialogue on avoiding cyber confrontation:

        Bridlaw's conclusion on his speech

        Dialogue with Moscow is possible as cooperation on some important issues, without giving up principles or our interests.
        We must enter this conversation with good faith and respect, but also from a position of strength. This is a way to reach an agreement that serves our interests.
        hi
  4. aszzz888
    aszzz888 11 February 2017 07: 42
    +3
    Only by the results of such an analysis will it be possible to give a more or less reasonable forecast for the development of the situation in the USA and in the world.


    even though the water article is more or less, the actions of analysts are described in detail. And that’s all - he is ours! (In the sense of Trump).
  5. MPK105
    MPK105 11 February 2017 08: 38
    +15
    I’ve read it carefully. I think that it’s just nobody will be with him (Trump) ... But in general, there is "trampomania." When will there be articles about Russia, about our president, about our "life"? Thank you in advance.
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 11 February 2017 12: 59
      +6
      Quote: MPK105
      I think that just with him (Trump) no one will be ...


      Did you mean that it will not be boring? If so, then probably - but it will not be boring. Here's how the other day he “attached” our sad Russophobe McCain:
  6. Niccola Mack
    Niccola Mack 11 February 2017 08: 55
    +7
    The powers of the president are significantly limited by Congress and the Senate.

    Konstantin, can you deal with these two concepts? Somehow, the Senate, apart from Congress, hurts the eye.
    In an ideological sense, Trump is a classic capitalist of the industrial era, convinced that national power is determined by industrial potential. Accordingly, globalization, involving the division of labor between countries and the deindustrialization of the United States, is unacceptable.

    This is a very interesting question - if it is impossible to put pressure on raw materials appendages and “steam” them with dollars, then what? If the flow of goods from China and the rest suddenly ceases, what will America do with its industrialized industry “transferred to the lower cost zone”?
    Already inside, the real sector decreased to a minimum - everything was taken out.
    The destruction of the alliance is fraught with a significant weakening of American influence in the region or even the US withdrawal from Europe. And that will quickly make the EU an economic competitor to the United States.

    The alliance is not going anywhere (European members have no options - they have relaxed too much under the US "roof") - but "Trump self-financing" can drastically weaken European members.
    As for the EU competition - if it goes further, they will soon fall apart and compete with themselves.
  7. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 11 February 2017 10: 58
    +6
    Trump was pushed upstairs (well, don’t we think that he personally won the presidential election in such and such conditions, and the “show” of the competition with Clintons was obviously arranged specially) in order to create a charismatic leader of the Western world of “democracy” who can argue over popularity in the world with Putin. and become his ideological "counterbalance." The move is smart enough and with a “distant” “kneading”. There is an opinion (of those based on the "theory of world conspiracy" winked ) that Trump's nomination is a product of a compromise of the Masonic organizations and the Vatican ...
    1. marshes
      marshes 11 February 2017 13: 03
      +6
      Quote: Monster_Fat
      Trump was pushed upstairs (well, don’t we think that he personally won the presidential election in such and such conditions, and the “show” of the competition with Clintons was obviously arranged specially) in order to create a charismatic leader of the Western world of “democracy” who can argue over popularity in the world with Putin. and become his ideological "counterbalance."

      I agree with you, they missed the “bright leaders”. But he was enough for strength for one term, just Republicans did not have a candidacy with charisma at that time.
      Quote: Monster_Fat
      There is an opinion (from those based on the "theory of a world conspiracy") that the nomination of Trump is the product of a compromise between the Masonic organizations and the Vatican ...

      It is possible, although this candidate does not suit the Rothschild clan (Britain, Germany, France, Holland, China), for globalism.
  8. sds87
    sds87 11 February 2017 23: 29
    +2
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    There is an opinion (from those based on the "theory of a world conspiracy") that the nomination of Trump is the product of a compromise between the Masonic organizations and the Vatican ...

    There are many opinions, but so far I have not read reliable information about the "roof" of Trump. But this “roof” has pushed even the globalists who dominate in a number of countries and in the USA itself. Clintons are also not church mice and invested in the elections in full and lost. A serious struggle has begun on Earth among the true rulers. Rothschilds, Rockefellers ... Living is becoming more fun.
    1. Cat man null
      Cat man null 12 February 2017 00: 12
      +1
      Quote: sds87
      ... Rothschilds, Rockefellers ...

      - and the Rottweilers laughing

      Quote: sds87
      ... I haven’t read reliable information about Trump’s "roof" anywhere ...

      - this, you see, is not the information that is written on the fences
      - so you have to be satisfied with the Rottweilers, as well as Hildel ... Handel ... pah !! Club this, in short love

      Quote: sds87
      Clintons, too, are not church mice and invested in the elections in full and lost

      - Clintons in this scenario are just “mice” laughing

      However, all of your, um, analysms perfectly overlap with the presentation of the previous analyst:

      Quote: Monster_Fat
      There is an opinion (from those based on the "theory of a world conspiracy") that the nomination of Trump is a product of a compromise between the Masonic organizations and the Vatican ...

      - but there is at least a mention of a certain horse of Spirologicality of these "opinions"
      - You have the same, sorry ... Wahidan request
      1. sds87
        sds87 12 February 2017 00: 50
        +1
        Quote: Cat Man Null
        - You have the same, sorry ... Wahidan

        Yes, even a fret sedan and eggplant. My comments do not give you peace? And when did I manage to step on the tail of the cat? wassat
        1. Cat man null
          Cat man null 12 February 2017 01: 14
          0
          Quote: sds87
          My comments do not give you peace?

          “They amuse me, I will say so.”

          Quote: sds87
          And when did I manage to step on the tail of the cat?

          - you? Kotu? I don’t know about that, sorry ...
          - and so - they don’t call me, you know ... I myself come (s) yes
          1. sds87
            sds87 12 February 2017 11: 15
            +1
            Quote: Cat Man Null
            - and so - they don’t call me, you know ... I myself come (s)

            The named guest is worse than Tatar. (C) a proverb.
  9. vlad007
    vlad007 12 February 2017 02: 48
    +3
    Quote from the article: “He never revealed his views explicitly, except for the slogans about the return of power in the United States to the people and the revival of American power. However, actions allow us to conclude that he relies on a clear worldview system.”

    Trump in the 2011 year wrote the book "The former greatness of America." In 2016, she was translated into Russian. There, everything that Trump is going to do both in foreign policy activities and within America is described in great detail. A whole BIG chapter is dedicated to China, and China is also mentioned in other chapters. A whole chapter is devoted to Russia, but a small one - 2 pages. Trump does not consider Russia a serious threat for obvious reasons - he is primarily concerned with the ECONOMY, in this matter Russia does not threaten America in any way.