45-th President of the United States entered into full control of the country. The election campaign, unprecedentedly dirty about Trump’s candidate, unprecedented protests against the new president in the US before he could do anything, accusations of ties with Russia, even claims that he was a Kremlin protege and Moscow influenced the American electorate, testify : an extraordinary event occurred. Trump himself is an unusual figure even in his style of behavior.
The USA is one of the main players in the international arena, a key country in the financial sphere. Therefore, the whole world, analysts and politicians are trying to understand where Trump will go, what his strategy may be taking into account various factors and what will global and regional scale lead to.
It is especially important to predict a possible American strategy for Russia, since not only the foreign policy situation for our country, but also the internal situation depends on it.
First of all, we need to assess Trump as an individual and specialist, his position in the political spectrum of the United States and relations with transnational elites. To analyze the internal and foreign policy position of the United States, to identify the most critical problems and effective ways to solve them. Try to identify the real goals of Trump and his team as president of the United States. Next, it is important to establish what forces and how they can counteract the new president in his actions. Accordingly, to predict that they will be able to oppose Trump and the forces on which he relies. Finally, it is necessary to draw conclusions regarding the objective interests of the United States in the global and domestic aspects. Only by the results of such an analysis will it be possible to give a more or less reasonable forecast of the development of the situation in the USA and in the world.
Let's start with the key figure. To assess the identity of any person is very difficult, and especially such an extraordinary, like Trump. However, if you rely on the well-known information about his life and activities as a businessman and a politician, his reaction in the world and in the internal political arena, a lot can be clarified.
It is noteworthy that a significant part of the political establishment of the United States and Europe, the transnational business community, Trump is perceived as an unacceptable figure as president. In an interview following the Davos Forum, Chubais described his general atmosphere as panicky, comparable only to the beginning of 2009, when, as a result of the crisis, many had a sense of the collapse of capitalism as a system. And this panic is caused by the election of Trump. The world order of the twentieth century is over, the German Foreign Minister said. Not only representatives of the US Democratic Party, but also Republican elites demonstrate hostility towards Trump. Thus, the conclusion is unequivocal: Trump is not built into the Western political establishment, perceiving his appearance as president as a severe and unexpected blow.
What kind of power does Trump represent? Whose interests are expressed? Answers need to turn to the analysis of the foundations of its ideological platform. He never revealed his views explicitly, except for slogans about the return of power in the USA to the people and the revival of American power. However, actions lead to the conclusion that it relies on a clear ideological system.
It can be defined as an explicit traditionalist, seeking, in particular, to restore the status of a classical family that does not perceive sodomy as the norm of life. The borders of the country in the understanding of Trump are as they were throughout the XX and previous centuries, that is impenetrable to refugees. He believes that the state’s right to regulate migration policy is natural.
Ideologically, Trump is a classic capitalist of the industrial age, convinced that national power is determined by industrial potential. Accordingly, globalization, involving the division of labor between countries and the de-industrialization of the United States, is unacceptable. This determined an ideological conflict with the transnational elites and their creatures in the US political establishment. At the same time, this is what gave Trump the support of medium and small American entrepreneurship, as well as layers of the proletariat connected with the traditional industrial business, which ensured the victory in the presidential race.
Thus, Trump is an expression of the interests of those business layers of the United States, which are focused on the re-industrialization of America, the restoration of its full independence from the influence of TNCs.
Political creatures of transnational elites in other countries perceive Trump as the destroyer of the world order. In turn, the parties and movements of the West, focused on restoring the sovereignty of their countries, see it as an example to follow.
Negative attitude to the trump of the highest establishment of the United States determines the serious problems that will inevitably arise during the announced course. The powers of the president are substantially limited by the congress and the senate. This means that many of Trump’s programmatic provisions will be rejected by these legislative bodies. He, in turn, using the veto, will begin to block unacceptable for him the initiatives of the Congress and the Senate. There may be a clinch situation.
Trump's personal economic independence is fully secured - the multi-billionaire was able to finance the election campaign himself and easily ensure the existence of his empire and, accordingly, his family, being the president of the United States. However, this same empire can become a channel of effective pressure, because for any owner his business is his beloved child, for the sake of which he will go to great lengths. In addition, by American standards in comparison with the main opponents - TNCs are not so big that they can significantly influence the political situation in the United States based on them.
At the same time, the control of the American president over the state budget is by no means absolute. Here, too, the Congress and the Senate play their part. Therefore, compromises are inevitable. The dominant position in the US economy is occupied by TNCs, which will create problems with attracting extrabudgetary funds for the implementation of presidential programs. An alternative can only be an open war against a part of transnational structures with reliance on others, and therefore in the interests of the latter. That is, Trump's position, taking into account the radical nature of the transformations announced by him, suggests the likelihood of a sharp exacerbation of economic confrontation within the United States and globally. At the same time, the 45 president has the right to count on the support of large and medium-sized industrial businesses in the United States, which are not part of transnational corporations. Nevertheless, it is unlikely to be able to pursue an independent economic policy.
The figures, placed by Trump on key posts, have different, sometimes polar views on private issues of US development. The president holds the position of arbitrator. But he has no full-fledged team of like-minded people. This means that there is no high-quality information and analytical support for its activities as the country's leader, independent of the American special services and think tanks that traditionally support the activities of American presidents such as the RAND Corporation, where the influence of transnational elites dominates. This is fraught with the risks of making inappropriate decisions made by Trump's opponents to discredit him.
The conclusion is that Trump will face powerful opposition from the American establishment, which is closely associated with transnational elite groups that use the US as a tool to implement their geopolitics, which he will not always be able to overcome. And it will be forced to maneuver, which can be perceived as an inconsistency of politics.
Now we turn to the personal qualities that determine the ability of a political leader to influence processes in society. Among these, intellectual and managerial potential, consistency and predictability of actions stand out above all. The psychological type is also important, on which the leadership style and tactical methods of conducting the policy depend.
The key personal quality of a leader is his intellectual potential, which can be defined as the ability to process social and political information in real time in the amount and quality that ensures an adequate response to the situation. This potential is determined by methodological training, experience in political activities and relationships at various levels of the social hierarchy and in different strata, as well as the ideological basis.
The latter is the most important part of the intellectual potential and is a set of knowledge and ideas about the universe, society and the general directions of development. It allows the leader to correctly formulate the goals of the state he heads and the ways to achieve them. Judging by Trump's behavior, his assessment of the internal situation in the United States and the state of international relations, he has a more or less clear ideological platform.
At the same time, Trump and his teams are not clearly qualified in geopolitics. This, in particular, is manifested in the fact that it clearly places the economy above geopolitics. This is evidenced by his actions and statements regarding NATO and global American initiatives to create trans-partnerships - the Pacific and the Atlantic. Regarding the first, he issued a decree on the withdrawal of the United States from him, and on the second he simply closed consultations on the formation. By declaring that NATO is outdated, he thereby jeopardized the very existence of this bloc. In fact, this is a revision of the foundations of traditional American geopolitics of the last 60 years. Meanwhile, it was expansionism that provided the United States with domination and the possibility of parasitism on the resources of the third world countries. The high level of well-being of American society was determined to a decisive extent by just this. And NATO remains the most effective instrument of US domination in Europe, including in its markets. The destruction of the alliance is fraught with a significant weakening of American influence in the region or even the withdrawal of the United States from Europe. And this will quickly make the EU an economic rival for the United States.
Trump lacks experience in political activities and information warfare. His statements and actions are sometimes shocking, are made in such a form that gives opponents a trump card for attacks.
He clearly has excellent instinct and methodical preparation for overcoming crisis situations, which he has repeatedly hit. Undoubtedly, he has a wealth of experience in relations at various levels of the social hierarchy, which again follows from stories his business. In the election campaign, Trump showed exceptional psychological stability.
In general, Trump's intellectual potential should be rated as much higher than its predecessors in the 21st century. 45-th president is able to make difficult decisions and not be afraid of responsibility. Apparently, this is dangerous for transnational leaders who seek to see puppets at the top post.
The other most important personal quality of a leader is organizational potential, which means the ability to direct the activities of your team and the state apparatus as a whole towards the achievement of stated goals in a chosen manner within a set time frame. This potential is determined by experience, special methodological training, the ability to select and arrange personnel, personal commanding qualities. Judging by the facts from the life of Trump, here he is perfect. His whole story is a continuous and successful organizational activity as the head of a large corporation. This is evidenced by his election campaign, the main engine of which was himself.
An important quality of a leader of any power, especially such as the USA, is consistency and predictability. The first is usually understood as the ability to carry out a certain line when exposed to external destabilizing factors and to achieve goals. Predictability - the possibility of political forces and society more or less accurately predict the behavior of the leader in a certain situation.
Consistency gives the image of a stable, reliable politician and ultimately provides confidence (positive or negative depending on the ratio of the political orientation of the leader and a given social group) of elites and allies. Predictability ensures certainty of relationships with external forces and society. On the one hand, it improves the quality of interaction with internal forces, expands the influence on the social base, and on the other hand, it clarifies the attitude of the opposition. The number of neutral players is reduced. The predictability of the leader polarizes external forces.
Today we can state that Trump is consistent. His actions in the first days after the inauguration showed that campaign promises are not empty words, but a guide to action. Given the projected increase in pressure on him, and so unprecedentedly strong, we can confidently assume that he will be forced to maneuver. But to the stated goals go aggressively. However, the predicted Trump can only be called partly. It is possible to calculate his final goals and the general strategy for achieving them. But the tactics even for the near future is quite difficult. This is determined by its economic and informational and analytical dependence on structures that are completely or partially hostile to it, and the characteristics of the psychological type.
It can be considered choleric pronounced dominant type. He is inclined to quick, sometimes not quite reasonable decisions, which he takes, relying on his mind and flair. Moreover, it is ready to act contrary to the recommendations of experts. Opponents have fewer opportunities to influence it. At the same time, this situation creates favorable conditions for its management using information confrontation technologies.
To summarize: Trump's strengths as a leader and personality are his clear ideological position, high intellectual and organizational potential, as well as the sequence of actions demonstrated to them, the ability to independently make decisions and be responsible for them. The weak sides include inadequate training as a global politician, economic and informational and analytical dependence on hostile structures, as well as a choleric personality type that creates favorable conditions for covert management of his opponents.
According to the clinch law
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