How to divide the skin of an unkilled bear, or Azerbaijan is trying to cut off a piece of Iranian pie
Only here the whole hitch is that this very Southern Azerbaijan territorially belongs to Iran and so far no manifestations of the people's will about unification with Aliyev Azerbaijan show. At the same time, in the South, or as it is officially called, Iranian Azerbaijan includes both Eastern and Western Azerbaijan, plus a couple of provinces: Zanjan and Ardebil. The total population of this territory is about 30 million people.
It would seem that there is nothing extraordinary in the fact that a certain opposition deputy expressed a rather scandalous idea, which looks like obvious claims to redraw the existing borders. We in the State Duma also have enough of those representatives of the opposition, who then call on Russian soldiers to wash their boots in the Indian Ocean (although they formally deny their words), then to drop the atomic bomb on Grozny, then to hang all non-system oppositionists on the lampposts. However, the matter does not go beyond parliamentary clownery.
But in Baku, the situation looks somewhat different. The idea of renaming the Republic of Azerbaijan to Northern Azerbaijan is not just expressed by opposition deputies, but also supported by representatives of the ruling New Azerbaijan party. The same idea was supported by representatives of other political forces, for example, the Fatherland Party, which is considered pro-government. Experts in Azerbaijan have not seen such a rapprochement of the positions of the parliamentary opposition and the majority in the Milli Majlis for a long time.
But such a unity must be based on something. And the foundation of this kind really is. This basis can only be a possible US and NATO aggression against Iran. By the way, one can even assume that the idea that came to the heads of the opposition and was supported by the ruling party was actually thrown at the Milli Majlis from the outside, because with all due respect for the independence of present-day Azerbaijan, such global thoughts cannot be considered the prerogative of the parliament of a state far from status superpower, able to redraw the map of the world.
Perhaps the West, led by the United States, is trying to grope Iran’s pain point, which it will use for its own purposes. This sore point should be the very “Southern Azerbaijan”, whose population can be used as a revolutionary mass. It turns out that again certain forces are trying to launch the classic scenario, when a controlled (until a certain moment) opposition is nurtured within the state. And then this opposition, having received proper funding, will start doing its job, as happened in Libya, is happening in Syria and could have happened in Russia. Only now the Americans do not want to flaunt themselves, but try to solve the problem by proxy. The “hands” suitable for this turned out to be Azerbaijani. Like, if Baku wants to demonstrate its loyalty to the United States, then let it try to shatter Iran with its available capabilities. Therefore, the idea arose to rename the current Azerbaijan to Northern Azerbaijan.
In this case, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will have to make a difficult choice: take the lead from the “generators” of bold ideas or show the West that such adventures are completely unacceptable for him.
Let's not forget that Azerbaijan is a state bordering Russia, therefore any conflict in the South Caucasus can automatically spread to the North Caucasus, which cannot be called calm without that. In addition, the Gabala RLS, which is leased by the Russian Federation, is located in Azerbaijan. By the way, the term of its lease expires very soon. If Baku does not wish to extend the lease further, then it will be immediately clear which path of further development the current Azerbaijan chooses. True, the press has already received information that Mr. Aliyev, in principle, is in favor of extending the terms of the Russian military in the Republic, but at the same time plans to repeatedly increase the rent of the Gabala radar station. If the further rent by the Azerbaijani side is approved, then all these words about the appearance of North Azerbaijan on the world map become, in fact, meaningless. After all, it will be more expensive for Baku to play a double game.
The situation with Iraqi Kurds, too, was once used by Americans for their own purposes, only then no single Kurdistan appeared on the world map. Therefore, we can definitely say that South Azerbaijan, which supposedly can become part of Greater Azerbaijan, is just a bait for Baku. Obviously, the White House will not agree to donate Aliyev a huge piece of Iranian land in the event of a successful campaign against Tehran.
In addition, in the case of a counterproductive focus on splitting Iran and on refusing to cooperate with Russia, Baku may lose more than it gain. If you count the number of Azerbaijanis working on the territory of Russia today, the closure of the borders between our countries will lead to huge financial losses for Baku. And here it is unlikely that American assistance, if any, will be provided, will block these losses.
This proves once again that the ghostly crane in the sky today does not promise anything positive for the current Azerbaijani leadership.
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