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With 90-x, when a fierce “all against all” war broke out in Somalia, replacing a long standoff with Addis Ababa, Mogadishu counted, using the internal problems of its neighbor in the Horn of Africa, to “reunite” with the neighboring provinces of the Muslim-inhabited both ethnically and by language. The authorities acted in accordance with the idea of building “Great Somalia” (a great-power project distributed in the Middle East, which most of the countries in the region had had, and some people still suffer). As a result, the country has become a classic example of the “former state”.
The “world community” in the whole diversity of this concept can do nothing with this zone of continuous crisis. International peacekeeping forces suffered a defeat in Somalia in the 90s, with serious losses. African states, whose military contingents periodically come to the aid of its official government (not without benefits for their own geopolitical interests), cannot break up the radical Islamists. Relying on the clan-tribal basis of Somali society and support from the Arabian Peninsula, they restore power after any defeats.
At the same time, the country's problems have long gone beyond its borders. The Somali diaspora in North America and Western Europe has become the rear base of local pirates, whose potential is underestimated by world players, although it has been reduced due to the actions of the Navy states that have been fighting with them in the Red Sea and the western Indian Ocean. Somali refugees in neighboring African countries, primarily in Kenya, have become a breeding ground for Islamist terrorism. In the Arabian monarchies, immigrants from this country are kept under control. In Yemen's civil war-ridden, where there are extremely many of them, they represent a potentially significant force.
Somalia, which has long been divided into stable (Somaliland and to a lesser extent Puntland) and unstable territorial entities, formally remains a democratic state represented in the UN and having embassies in many countries. What exactly characterizes the adequacy of international politics in problem areas, including in Africa. What this policy leads to is clear in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, the countries of the Sahara and the Sahel. Somalia is distinguished from them by the remoteness from the main theaters of military operations of the Middle East and the focus on their own internal conflicts. But understanding what is happening in this country, especially with regard to the separation of powers and posts between the tribes and their clans, is important for assessing the situation in the Horn of Africa and everything that is happening in FAS. This article is based on the materials of experts from IBV, S. V. Aleinikov, A. A. Bystrov, and V. V. Kudelev.
Long election
In Somalia, the lengthy multi-step process of parliamentary and presidential elections, launched in October 2016, is nearing completion. 49 from 54 deputies of the upper house of parliament are known, its lower house - the People’s Assembly (NA) is formed. At the end of 2016, the National Assembly started its work by adopting a regulation on the procedure for electing the leadership of the Federal Parliament and the President of Somalia. The deputies of the 10 convocation began to exercise their functions and assumed the powers of the extra-constitutional National Leadership Forum, which had usurped power in the country since last May.
In accordance with the provisions of 10 – 11 of January, elections for the National Assembly of Somalia and his two deputies were held in Mogadishu. Of the four candidates for the presidency, Professor Mahamed Osman Javari, a representative of the rakhanwein tribes, was re-elected by secret ballot, supported by 141 from the 259 deputies who participated in the vote. His first deputy was the representative of ethnic minorities Abdiweli Sheikh Ibrahim Muday, who held this position in 2010 – 2012. The second deputy is the representative of the tribes of Dir Mahad Abdullah Awad, who worked in this position in the parliament of the 9-th convocation in 2012 – 2016-m. They won in the second round, receiving respectively 164 and 171 voice. The leader of the Dam-ul-Jadid faction, dominant in the central government of Somalia, Farah Sheikh Abdikadir, who claimed to be the first deputy chairman of parliament, was defeated.
The results of the elections of the NA leadership partly clarified the balance of political forces ahead of the presidential campaign scheduled for the end of January. The re-election of NA President Mahamed Javari torpedoed the plans of the President of the South-West Somalia region Sharif Hassan to become the new Fed president, as a representative of rahanwein has already taken one of the highest government positions, and only the other three major Somali ethnic groups can apply for the presidency - Chavie, Darod and Dir. Since most of the Dir (Isak et al.) Tribes live in Somaliland, the real struggle for the presidency will be between candidates from the Hawiyeh tribes (primarily the Abgal) and the freebies (especially the Majerten).
The defeat at the elections to the leadership of the National Assembly Farah Abdikadir, who received only 94 votes, shows that most of the deputies are opposed to strengthening the position in the country of the Dam-ul-Jadid group and re-election to the presidential post of Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud. However, given the corruption factor in the Somali elections, one cannot exclude the possibility of re-electing Sheikh Mahmoud to the presidency.
Most likely Fed presidential candidates:
former president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (descended from the Abgal / Muduluod / Chaviye tribe), leading his election campaign under the slogan “For real political change!”, funded by major Somali businessmen;
his tribesman, and. about. President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, who speaks under the slogan “Finish what has begun”, actively supported by Ethiopia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia;
Hassan's relative Sheikh Mahmud, a relatively young politician, Djibril Ibrahim Abdullah, who proclaimed as the slogan “For Just Power and a Single Nation”, supported by the United States and other Western countries;
their fellow tribesman, a big businessman, the leader of the political opposition of the current government, Abdulkadir Osoble Ali, speaking under the slogan “In unity is strength!”;
and. about. Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali "Sharmarke" (from the Ottoman-Mahmoud / Majerten / Darood clan), who advocates political stability and is financially supported by the UAE;
to a lesser extent, the former Prime Minister of Somalia, Mahamed Abdullahi Mahamed "Farmadzho" (a native of the Marehan / Darod tribe), who returned from the United States, a popular politician in Mogadishu, who advanced the slogan "Interests of the country and the people".
Presidential candidates have the greatest financial capabilities of Hassan Sheikh Mahmud, the smallest ones of Mahamed Farmadzho. In total, more than 20 candidates participate in the presidential race. Most of them are in favor of changing the ruling regime and carrying out real political reforms. These candidates have concluded an alliance between themselves, providing support to those who will pass in the second or third round of voting in the presidential election. They called on the parliament and the CEC to hold elections honestly and warned against foreign interference in the electoral process in order to avoid falsifying election results, their boycott and the new political crisis.
Elections in Somalia are held in a complex military-political and social environment. They are accompanied by numerous scandals associated with gross violations of the rights of voters and candidates. Elected members of parliament are under pressure from both the government and the Al-Shabab terrorist group that threatens their lives. A major terrorist attack was organized by the militants of this group 2 in January near the Mogadishu airport. As a result of the explosion of two cars filled with explosives, at least 15 people were killed, dozens were injured, several buildings were destroyed, including the Mir Hotel, in which members of the Somali government, deputies and foreigners lived.
A new hotbed of political tension in Somalia has arisen in the federal region of Galmudug. In addition to the fact that the conflict between its authorities and Puntland and the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-Jamaa Sufi military-political organization (ASUD), has not yet been resolved, the local parliament at an emergency meeting decided to remove from power the President Galmudug Abdikarim Hussein Guled for non-performance of duties violation of the constitution. 54 of 89 MPs voted for retirement. President Gouled called the decision of the parliamentarians illegal and refused to leave his post. On January 11, he returned to Adado, declared a state of emergency in Galmudug, and appointed a new provincial governor. Mass demonstrations in support of parliament were held in Adado. Additional security forces have been sent to the city, loyal to Gouled.
And about. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud supported the actions of Guled, his protege and ally in the fight for the presidency. The heads of federal regions of Somalia also spoke out against similar parliamentary decisions that could destabilize the situation in the country. At the same time, in the central provinces of Somalia, controlled by Ahlyu Sunnah wal-Jamaa, the regional parliament of the Central Somalia region of 65 deputies representing the provinces of Galgudud, Mudug and Hiran was formed and sworn. Earlier, the ASUD leadership stated that it did not recognize the legitimacy of the authorities of Galmudug and the elections of deputies to the Federal Parliament held in Adado.
Thus, the central provinces of Somalia remain divided into zones of influence between the administrations of Galmudug, ASUD, and Al-Shabab. Military tensions are growing in the region, which can escalate into a new armed conflict between both political groups and local tribes. This may affect the results of the presidential election. At the same time, the situation in Galmudug is aggravated by another drought, a traditional disaster for Somalia and other countries of the Horn of Africa, causing massive population death from starvation and epidemics.
The protracted process of parliamentary and presidential elections in Somalia has an extremely negative impact on the situation in the country. For more than a year, federal and regional authorities have been engaged in political intrigues, ignoring problems in the areas of security, the economy and social security of the population. In the confrontation of the warring leaders and their supporting groups are spent not only the personal funds of applicants for posts, but also government funds. At the same time, the majority of Somali politicians and public figures are in favor of a change in the ruling regime.
Chaos and business
A number of Western experts note that armed confrontation between various factions of the Islamist group Al-Shabaab, which differ in their focus on Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) banned in Russia, may resume in Somalia, although such a division is artificial. . There are no classical supporters of these currents in Somalia. The local tribal groups publicly position themselves as supporters or affiliates of this or that movement in order to give the intertribal struggle a global character. The estimates of the Western intelligence community, according to which the supporters of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi lost the Somali foothold to the supporters of Ayman al-Zawahiri, are doubtful. In fact, they participated to a minimal extent in the struggle in Somalia in Al-Shabaab between the "old" and "young", who were unwittingly helped by the United States, using against their groups Drones.
Alertness about the return of “supporters of IS” to Somalia was born against the background of the announcement of an alarm in Al-Shabab security service (Jaysh al-Amniyat) due to the expected expansion of Omar Abu Obeid’s supporters, eliminated by the American UAV in 2012, to Somalia. After that, members of his faction, including for financial reasons (as a result of this confrontation, they lost their usual means of replenishing the treasury in the form of racketeering and smuggling), were forced to leave Somalia and relocate to Yemen. At the same time, neither here nor there were no obstacles.
Given the chaos in Somalia, this is not surprising. In Yemen, they were warmly received by the people of President A. A. Saleh. The colony of Somalis in Yemen is numerous and has always been under the auspices of the authorities. This became especially noticeable during the reign of Saleh, who used these contacts to organize channels for the massive smuggling of alcohol and migrants who had moved from Yemen to Saudi Arabia. Through Somalia from Yemen, there was a cut (light drug), fuel and weapon. Virtually all Islamist leaders in Somalia have been involved in these operations to one degree or another, and many lived in Yemen. President Saleh used the Somalis to intimidate and destroy their political opponents. So, in the midst of the "revolution", Somali mercenaries burned a tent camp of protesters in Sanaa.
The main counterpart of President Saleh was a Somalian from the Comoros, Fazul Abdullah Mohammad, who created in Yemen an underground network for recruiting Somalis into the ranks of death squads. He, at the suggestion of Saleh, was in close contact with the Iranian special services (IRGC) to conduct joint operations to transfer weapons from Yemen through Eritrea to Sinai. Later, with the assistance of Saleh, he extended his activities to Somalia, positioning himself "as an IG supporter": the Yemeni president needed his own foothold in this country to maintain the channels of smuggling. Iranian weapons, marching Hamas and Islamic Jihad into the Gaza Strip, were procured by Iranians in Yemen with the assistance of the Yemeni leader.
These attempts were one of the reasons for the inter-factional struggle, and in 2011 the year was clearly over the tip of former like-minded Fazul Abdullah Mohammad was eliminated by a strike from an American UAV. After that, and also in connection with the removal of Saleh from power, the Yemeni group began to lose influence and moved from Somalia to Yemen. There, under the auspices of the IG, she began to organize terrorist acts in the mosques in the areas of influence of the Khousits, as well as in Aden, on the orders of Salekh. At the same time, "Yemeni supporters of the IG" appeared, which published several videos. These were the Somalis, whom Saleh used for subversive war, and the fact of the existence of the IG in Yemen - for the necessary impact on the Americans. The implication was that the only force that could contain the danger was the Saleh Republican Guard and the forces of its allies, which at that time were the Housits.
The danger of the emergence of "Somali supporters of the IG" in Somalia, where they intend to partly move from Yemen, is due to the fact that they have money. According to the leaders of Jaish al-Amniyat, we are talking about the finance of the Khousit and Saleh in order to arrange the transfer of weapons to Yemen already from Somalia. The intermediaries in this case were again the operatives of the Iranian IRGC, who contacted arms dealers in Somalia through their contacts in the Eritrean government. It is expected to arrive from Yemen in Somalia assault "supporters of the IG", which will ensure their safety.
In this regard, we note that Asmara, despite his trusting relations with Abu Dhabi, secretly maintains relations with Iran, including on issues of arms smuggling. That is, Eritrea adheres to a multi-vector policy, as it was always accepted in the East. We also note that the attempt to reanimate the Somali-Eritrean canal is directly related to the fact that Oman, which is experiencing growing pressure from Riyadh, decided to tighten control over the logistical channels of smuggling Iranian weapons to Yemen. Sultan Qaboos promised this to the heir to the crown prince and KSA Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman. In this situation, his appeal to Tehran regarding the freezing during operations of this kind is logical. Hence, the urgent resuscitation of the old Somali ties on the part of the Iranians and their Yemeni allies.
The November UN report acknowledged that the authorities had made progress in controlling the export of charcoal, the backbone of Al-Shabab's “economy”. After this loss, the jihadists are trying to subjugate the sugar market and introduce a “tax” on agricultural products in rural areas. The first gives them an income of 18 million dollars a year, the second - 9,5 million. Al-Shabab has remained under control and part of the charcoal market, the total amount of which is 120 – 160 million euros. It is alleged that the Kenyan military from AMISOM was involved in the trade. Every year, bypassing the UN Security Council embargo, up to six million bags of charcoal 25 kilograms are sent to the Arabian Peninsula from the ports of Bar Gabo and Kismayo. In Kismayo, the Kenyan military has two dollars each.
12 November The African Union called on the EU to reconsider the decision to pay for the work of Burundian soldiers in Somalia directly, and not through Bujumbura. The contingent of Burundi in the composition of the AMISOM - the second after the Ugandan, 5400 soldiers. In total, AMISOM consists of over 22 thousands of military men. Burundi’s First Vice-President, Gaston Sindimvo, did not rule out the withdrawal of Burundi’s contingent from Somalia if the EU continues to pay it directly. So the triumph of "law and order" in this country will obviously not happen soon.
The “world community” in the whole diversity of this concept can do nothing with this zone of continuous crisis. International peacekeeping forces suffered a defeat in Somalia in the 90s, with serious losses. African states, whose military contingents periodically come to the aid of its official government (not without benefits for their own geopolitical interests), cannot break up the radical Islamists. Relying on the clan-tribal basis of Somali society and support from the Arabian Peninsula, they restore power after any defeats.
At the same time, the country's problems have long gone beyond its borders. The Somali diaspora in North America and Western Europe has become the rear base of local pirates, whose potential is underestimated by world players, although it has been reduced due to the actions of the Navy states that have been fighting with them in the Red Sea and the western Indian Ocean. Somali refugees in neighboring African countries, primarily in Kenya, have become a breeding ground for Islamist terrorism. In the Arabian monarchies, immigrants from this country are kept under control. In Yemen's civil war-ridden, where there are extremely many of them, they represent a potentially significant force.
Somalia, which has long been divided into stable (Somaliland and to a lesser extent Puntland) and unstable territorial entities, formally remains a democratic state represented in the UN and having embassies in many countries. What exactly characterizes the adequacy of international politics in problem areas, including in Africa. What this policy leads to is clear in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, the countries of the Sahara and the Sahel. Somalia is distinguished from them by the remoteness from the main theaters of military operations of the Middle East and the focus on their own internal conflicts. But understanding what is happening in this country, especially with regard to the separation of powers and posts between the tribes and their clans, is important for assessing the situation in the Horn of Africa and everything that is happening in FAS. This article is based on the materials of experts from IBV, S. V. Aleinikov, A. A. Bystrov, and V. V. Kudelev.
Long election
In Somalia, the lengthy multi-step process of parliamentary and presidential elections, launched in October 2016, is nearing completion. 49 from 54 deputies of the upper house of parliament are known, its lower house - the People’s Assembly (NA) is formed. At the end of 2016, the National Assembly started its work by adopting a regulation on the procedure for electing the leadership of the Federal Parliament and the President of Somalia. The deputies of the 10 convocation began to exercise their functions and assumed the powers of the extra-constitutional National Leadership Forum, which had usurped power in the country since last May.
In accordance with the provisions of 10 – 11 of January, elections for the National Assembly of Somalia and his two deputies were held in Mogadishu. Of the four candidates for the presidency, Professor Mahamed Osman Javari, a representative of the rakhanwein tribes, was re-elected by secret ballot, supported by 141 from the 259 deputies who participated in the vote. His first deputy was the representative of ethnic minorities Abdiweli Sheikh Ibrahim Muday, who held this position in 2010 – 2012. The second deputy is the representative of the tribes of Dir Mahad Abdullah Awad, who worked in this position in the parliament of the 9-th convocation in 2012 – 2016-m. They won in the second round, receiving respectively 164 and 171 voice. The leader of the Dam-ul-Jadid faction, dominant in the central government of Somalia, Farah Sheikh Abdikadir, who claimed to be the first deputy chairman of parliament, was defeated.
The results of the elections of the NA leadership partly clarified the balance of political forces ahead of the presidential campaign scheduled for the end of January. The re-election of NA President Mahamed Javari torpedoed the plans of the President of the South-West Somalia region Sharif Hassan to become the new Fed president, as a representative of rahanwein has already taken one of the highest government positions, and only the other three major Somali ethnic groups can apply for the presidency - Chavie, Darod and Dir. Since most of the Dir (Isak et al.) Tribes live in Somaliland, the real struggle for the presidency will be between candidates from the Hawiyeh tribes (primarily the Abgal) and the freebies (especially the Majerten).
The defeat at the elections to the leadership of the National Assembly Farah Abdikadir, who received only 94 votes, shows that most of the deputies are opposed to strengthening the position in the country of the Dam-ul-Jadid group and re-election to the presidential post of Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud. However, given the corruption factor in the Somali elections, one cannot exclude the possibility of re-electing Sheikh Mahmoud to the presidency.
Most likely Fed presidential candidates:
former president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (descended from the Abgal / Muduluod / Chaviye tribe), leading his election campaign under the slogan “For real political change!”, funded by major Somali businessmen;
his tribesman, and. about. President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, who speaks under the slogan “Finish what has begun”, actively supported by Ethiopia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia;
Hassan's relative Sheikh Mahmud, a relatively young politician, Djibril Ibrahim Abdullah, who proclaimed as the slogan “For Just Power and a Single Nation”, supported by the United States and other Western countries;
their fellow tribesman, a big businessman, the leader of the political opposition of the current government, Abdulkadir Osoble Ali, speaking under the slogan “In unity is strength!”;
and. about. Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali "Sharmarke" (from the Ottoman-Mahmoud / Majerten / Darood clan), who advocates political stability and is financially supported by the UAE;
to a lesser extent, the former Prime Minister of Somalia, Mahamed Abdullahi Mahamed "Farmadzho" (a native of the Marehan / Darod tribe), who returned from the United States, a popular politician in Mogadishu, who advanced the slogan "Interests of the country and the people".
Presidential candidates have the greatest financial capabilities of Hassan Sheikh Mahmud, the smallest ones of Mahamed Farmadzho. In total, more than 20 candidates participate in the presidential race. Most of them are in favor of changing the ruling regime and carrying out real political reforms. These candidates have concluded an alliance between themselves, providing support to those who will pass in the second or third round of voting in the presidential election. They called on the parliament and the CEC to hold elections honestly and warned against foreign interference in the electoral process in order to avoid falsifying election results, their boycott and the new political crisis.
Elections in Somalia are held in a complex military-political and social environment. They are accompanied by numerous scandals associated with gross violations of the rights of voters and candidates. Elected members of parliament are under pressure from both the government and the Al-Shabab terrorist group that threatens their lives. A major terrorist attack was organized by the militants of this group 2 in January near the Mogadishu airport. As a result of the explosion of two cars filled with explosives, at least 15 people were killed, dozens were injured, several buildings were destroyed, including the Mir Hotel, in which members of the Somali government, deputies and foreigners lived.A new hotbed of political tension in Somalia has arisen in the federal region of Galmudug. In addition to the fact that the conflict between its authorities and Puntland and the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-Jamaa Sufi military-political organization (ASUD), has not yet been resolved, the local parliament at an emergency meeting decided to remove from power the President Galmudug Abdikarim Hussein Guled for non-performance of duties violation of the constitution. 54 of 89 MPs voted for retirement. President Gouled called the decision of the parliamentarians illegal and refused to leave his post. On January 11, he returned to Adado, declared a state of emergency in Galmudug, and appointed a new provincial governor. Mass demonstrations in support of parliament were held in Adado. Additional security forces have been sent to the city, loyal to Gouled.
And about. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud supported the actions of Guled, his protege and ally in the fight for the presidency. The heads of federal regions of Somalia also spoke out against similar parliamentary decisions that could destabilize the situation in the country. At the same time, in the central provinces of Somalia, controlled by Ahlyu Sunnah wal-Jamaa, the regional parliament of the Central Somalia region of 65 deputies representing the provinces of Galgudud, Mudug and Hiran was formed and sworn. Earlier, the ASUD leadership stated that it did not recognize the legitimacy of the authorities of Galmudug and the elections of deputies to the Federal Parliament held in Adado.
Thus, the central provinces of Somalia remain divided into zones of influence between the administrations of Galmudug, ASUD, and Al-Shabab. Military tensions are growing in the region, which can escalate into a new armed conflict between both political groups and local tribes. This may affect the results of the presidential election. At the same time, the situation in Galmudug is aggravated by another drought, a traditional disaster for Somalia and other countries of the Horn of Africa, causing massive population death from starvation and epidemics.
The protracted process of parliamentary and presidential elections in Somalia has an extremely negative impact on the situation in the country. For more than a year, federal and regional authorities have been engaged in political intrigues, ignoring problems in the areas of security, the economy and social security of the population. In the confrontation of the warring leaders and their supporting groups are spent not only the personal funds of applicants for posts, but also government funds. At the same time, the majority of Somali politicians and public figures are in favor of a change in the ruling regime.
Chaos and business
A number of Western experts note that armed confrontation between various factions of the Islamist group Al-Shabaab, which differ in their focus on Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) banned in Russia, may resume in Somalia, although such a division is artificial. . There are no classical supporters of these currents in Somalia. The local tribal groups publicly position themselves as supporters or affiliates of this or that movement in order to give the intertribal struggle a global character. The estimates of the Western intelligence community, according to which the supporters of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi lost the Somali foothold to the supporters of Ayman al-Zawahiri, are doubtful. In fact, they participated to a minimal extent in the struggle in Somalia in Al-Shabaab between the "old" and "young", who were unwittingly helped by the United States, using against their groups Drones.
Alertness about the return of “supporters of IS” to Somalia was born against the background of the announcement of an alarm in Al-Shabab security service (Jaysh al-Amniyat) due to the expected expansion of Omar Abu Obeid’s supporters, eliminated by the American UAV in 2012, to Somalia. After that, members of his faction, including for financial reasons (as a result of this confrontation, they lost their usual means of replenishing the treasury in the form of racketeering and smuggling), were forced to leave Somalia and relocate to Yemen. At the same time, neither here nor there were no obstacles.
Given the chaos in Somalia, this is not surprising. In Yemen, they were warmly received by the people of President A. A. Saleh. The colony of Somalis in Yemen is numerous and has always been under the auspices of the authorities. This became especially noticeable during the reign of Saleh, who used these contacts to organize channels for the massive smuggling of alcohol and migrants who had moved from Yemen to Saudi Arabia. Through Somalia from Yemen, there was a cut (light drug), fuel and weapon. Virtually all Islamist leaders in Somalia have been involved in these operations to one degree or another, and many lived in Yemen. President Saleh used the Somalis to intimidate and destroy their political opponents. So, in the midst of the "revolution", Somali mercenaries burned a tent camp of protesters in Sanaa.
The main counterpart of President Saleh was a Somalian from the Comoros, Fazul Abdullah Mohammad, who created in Yemen an underground network for recruiting Somalis into the ranks of death squads. He, at the suggestion of Saleh, was in close contact with the Iranian special services (IRGC) to conduct joint operations to transfer weapons from Yemen through Eritrea to Sinai. Later, with the assistance of Saleh, he extended his activities to Somalia, positioning himself "as an IG supporter": the Yemeni president needed his own foothold in this country to maintain the channels of smuggling. Iranian weapons, marching Hamas and Islamic Jihad into the Gaza Strip, were procured by Iranians in Yemen with the assistance of the Yemeni leader.
These attempts were one of the reasons for the inter-factional struggle, and in 2011 the year was clearly over the tip of former like-minded Fazul Abdullah Mohammad was eliminated by a strike from an American UAV. After that, and also in connection with the removal of Saleh from power, the Yemeni group began to lose influence and moved from Somalia to Yemen. There, under the auspices of the IG, she began to organize terrorist acts in the mosques in the areas of influence of the Khousits, as well as in Aden, on the orders of Salekh. At the same time, "Yemeni supporters of the IG" appeared, which published several videos. These were the Somalis, whom Saleh used for subversive war, and the fact of the existence of the IG in Yemen - for the necessary impact on the Americans. The implication was that the only force that could contain the danger was the Saleh Republican Guard and the forces of its allies, which at that time were the Housits.
The danger of the emergence of "Somali supporters of the IG" in Somalia, where they intend to partly move from Yemen, is due to the fact that they have money. According to the leaders of Jaish al-Amniyat, we are talking about the finance of the Khousit and Saleh in order to arrange the transfer of weapons to Yemen already from Somalia. The intermediaries in this case were again the operatives of the Iranian IRGC, who contacted arms dealers in Somalia through their contacts in the Eritrean government. It is expected to arrive from Yemen in Somalia assault "supporters of the IG", which will ensure their safety.
In this regard, we note that Asmara, despite his trusting relations with Abu Dhabi, secretly maintains relations with Iran, including on issues of arms smuggling. That is, Eritrea adheres to a multi-vector policy, as it was always accepted in the East. We also note that the attempt to reanimate the Somali-Eritrean canal is directly related to the fact that Oman, which is experiencing growing pressure from Riyadh, decided to tighten control over the logistical channels of smuggling Iranian weapons to Yemen. Sultan Qaboos promised this to the heir to the crown prince and KSA Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman. In this situation, his appeal to Tehran regarding the freezing during operations of this kind is logical. Hence, the urgent resuscitation of the old Somali ties on the part of the Iranians and their Yemeni allies.
The November UN report acknowledged that the authorities had made progress in controlling the export of charcoal, the backbone of Al-Shabab's “economy”. After this loss, the jihadists are trying to subjugate the sugar market and introduce a “tax” on agricultural products in rural areas. The first gives them an income of 18 million dollars a year, the second - 9,5 million. Al-Shabab has remained under control and part of the charcoal market, the total amount of which is 120 – 160 million euros. It is alleged that the Kenyan military from AMISOM was involved in the trade. Every year, bypassing the UN Security Council embargo, up to six million bags of charcoal 25 kilograms are sent to the Arabian Peninsula from the ports of Bar Gabo and Kismayo. In Kismayo, the Kenyan military has two dollars each.
12 November The African Union called on the EU to reconsider the decision to pay for the work of Burundian soldiers in Somalia directly, and not through Bujumbura. The contingent of Burundi in the composition of the AMISOM - the second after the Ugandan, 5400 soldiers. In total, AMISOM consists of over 22 thousands of military men. Burundi’s First Vice-President, Gaston Sindimvo, did not rule out the withdrawal of Burundi’s contingent from Somalia if the EU continues to pay it directly. So the triumph of "law and order" in this country will obviously not happen soon.
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