Operational situation in the Donbass theater against the background of Avakov’s brilliantly insane strategy. What steps to wait?
Battery 122-mm howitzers D-30, which is in service with 6-th OMSP them. Matvey Platov 2-th Army Corps NM LC. These towed guns, along with self-propelled counterparts ("Carnations") are an integral part of the artillery weapons of the Armed Forces of the New Russia
OPERATIONAL SITUATION AT DONBASS CONTINUES TO DESTABLE
Even before the promising 2017 year struck, at the next meeting of the Contact Group in Minsk, 21 December 2016 year, another absolutely useless agreement was reached on the introduction of a ceasefire regime, which was supposed to take effect at midnight 24 October The first week and a half there was a noticeable decrease in artillery shelling from the Ukrainian military formations in the border cities of Novorossia (from 100 to 200 once a day), then the situation returned to the old trend: the number of daily attacks from the barrel artillery began to increase gradually, and by 20 January numbers reached the previous 1000 shelling, and therefore to exaggerate the theme "Minsk" there is no longer any sense. At the same time, on the basis of statements made by Poroshenko’s entourage and representatives of law enforcement agencies “Square”, it is already possible to sketch a rather detailed prognostic picture for the current year.
Over the past 4-5 months, Kiev, enlisting the financial and logistical support of the previous regime in Washington, carried out a transfer to the contact line in the Donbass theater of operations the maximum possible number of large-caliber artillery units, salvo rocket systems, armored units, professionally trained sabotage reconnaissance groups (DRG), as well as private military companies from Eastern Europe. At the same time, in December, against the background of the failure-testing of the combat effectiveness of the advanced units of the LPRD people's militia corps at Debaltsevo ON, the forces of the 54 OMBR together with the Right Sector formations (banned in the Russian Federation) took steps to further strengthen the fortified areas in the environs of Mariupol acting on the new Azov ON . As we noted in our last work in December, most of the artillery batteries in the 10 SAU Acacia, 8 towed howitzers Hyacint-B, 15 howitzers D-30 (33 guns) were located in the coastal villages Rybatskoye and Melekino (on western outskirts of Mariupol).
Based on the performance of the above-mentioned guns, Ordzhonikidzevsky and Illichivsky districts of Mariupol, as well as the village of Kalinovka and p.t. Sartana, which are the main frontiers for the assault and liberation of the city by the Armed Forces of the DPR. From this you can make the only disappointing conclusion: the APU will hide behind the residential quarters of the city, leading indiscriminate counter-battery fire on the eastern suburbs of Mariupol, and they are not at all embarrassed that thousands of civilians live here. During the stripping of Mariupol from Ukrainian paramilitary forces, to destroy or oust artillery positions from Rybatsky and Melekino, capable of turning the eastern half of the city into ruins, a special operation will be required by a separate reconnaissance battalion "Sparta", a reconnaissance company "Typhoon" and other units. Large-caliber adjustable artillery shells of 100-mm artillery cannons can also be used, if such are, of course, purchased by the militiamen through numerous voentorg loopholes.
Aircraft tactical communication and retransmission An-26РТ (or its modification) APU, transferred in November to the airfield of occupied Kramatorsk. As part of the avionics may be radio relay station "Fig", designed to repeatedly increase the range of radio communication between ground tactical units, regardless of the range of the horizon. The transfer of this board to the Donbass indicates the possibility of a large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for hostilities, as well as the regrouping of artillery, armored and infantry "cores" with the aim of giving them an offensive configuration on the Telman, Novoazovsk and Debaltsevskiy directions was carried out under the supervision of the American stratospheric strategic reconnaissance RQ-4A "Global Hawk", which had been defended by the United States stratospheric strategic reconnaissance RQ-60A “Global Hawk”, which had been defended by the US military stratospheric strategic reconnaissance aircraft RQ-200A “Global Hawk”. —2016 km from the contact line over the Donbas during the several days of November and December of 2. The drone, using the AN / ZPY-2 MP-RTIP on-board radar, collected extremely important information about the locations of the positions of the DPR and LPR armies near Novoazovsk, Starobeshevo, Debaltsevo and Stakhanov. The radar coverage of this radar (AN / ZPY-200 reaches 17 km) also includes the rear parts of the VSN located in the Red Ray, Anthracite, Amvrosiyivka and Sedovo (near the Russian border). All information was transferred to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 26 became known about the scale of the planned action in November, when the An-XNUMX aircraft with radio communication equipment between the tactical units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was raised into the air from the Kramatorsk airfield. Favorable soil for the intensification of hostilities was created.
KIEV'S MISSIONS AND ECONOMIC MOMENTS
And so, in January of 2017, the first “promising and constructive” thoughts about the future of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics began to come from Kiev. First Pearl "issued" by the Deputy Minister for the unrecognized republics George Tuk. He announced the possibility of starting the process of returning the LDNR to the “Square” in the autumn of 2017, and also described the prospects for the return of the Republic of Crimea. Tuki’s absolutely marasmic opinion rests on hopes that the Russian Federation will end up with comprehensive economic support for the republics, which in his vision should lead to a complete collapse of the viability of Novorossia. And from this point on, one can declare the sheer short-sightedness of the “cockroaches” sitting in the head of the deputy head of the incompetent Ukrainian department.
To begin, let us begin by saying that by April, the Russian group of companies Atlant Invest had acquired the food industry enterprises from the DPR, among which were the bakery 2016, the mayonnaise plant, and the macaroni plant incorporated in the Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration. Alexey Skvortsov, the chairman of the group’s board, said that within one year, since the spring of 11, they had managed to conclude a very good deal with the former owner of these enterprises - the Ukrainian group of companies “Lauffer Group”, headed by entrepreneur Alexander Leschinsky. This already tells us that the policy of economic cooperation with the young republics of Donbass is a long-term one, and there can be no question of any return of Donbass to the bloody hands of Kiev. And this conclusion establishes a quite correct statement by A. Leshchinsky about the value of the product segment of these plants not only in the LDNR, but also in the Russian Federation. Moreover, Leshchinsky noted that new enterprises located on the territory play a very large role in the import substitution structure that is strategically important for Moscow, which had to be formed as a counterweight to the sanction red tape. Russian companies would hardly have bought back shares of enterprises of the Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration, if the seizure of the republics by the occupying troops of the Ukrainian junta were expected.
The second example is the sale of 80% of shares of public joint-stock company Nord, specializing in the production of refrigeration equipment, to the Russian LLC Diorit-Technis (part of the largest commercial holding Diorit), previously the exclusive distributor of Nord in the Russian Federation. Despite the fact that the Ukrainian leadership re-registered “NORD” from Donetsk to Kramatorosk controlled by Kiev, all the facilities of the company, fortunately, remained in the capital of Donetsk People's Republic, however, due to temporary economic difficulties, the plant's staff was reduced by 5 times (to 800 people ), and the mode of operation provides for 1 shift. Equally important events also occurred 16 December 2016-th year, as well as January 20 2017-th. The first date was marked by a document signed by Alexander Zakharchenko, aimed at the gradual integration of the DPR into the economic structure of Russia. The second, in addition to the inauguration of 45 US President Donald Trump, was the signing of an agreement to deepen economic cooperation with the Republic of Crimea, where A. Zakharchenko and I. Plotnitsky paid a visit in honor of the anniversary of the Pereyaslav Rada. As you see, Russian business is gradually penetrating the developing economy of the LDNR, and there are no prerequisites for stopping this process.
NEW "CUTS" STRATEGA-AVAKOVA. ON THE REAL THREAT TO EASTERN BORDERS CAPTURE OF NOVORSSIA BY OCCUPATIONAL UKRAINIAN MILITARY FORMATIONS
In addition to the incompetent predictions of Tuki, there are no less “entertaining” plans for Arsen Avakov, who illegally took over the post of Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, voiced by 17 of January 2017 of the year. This time Avakov, a month earlier, instructing the National Guard under officers to prepare for a military police operation in Donbas, instructed border guards to prepare for “entering the state border of Ukraine in Donbas”, which means taking control of the border area between LDNR and the Russian Federation. He made it clear that the re-seizure of the territories of the republics should be accompanied by a sweep by the forces of the militarized police, national guardsmen, and also the organs of justice. In other words, the agenda of the power structures of the “independent” conduct of a punitive operation among the peaceful population of the cities of Novorossia, which adhere to the corresponding pro-Russian ideology, and the repeated forced imposition of Bandera ideas, traditions and principles.
Of particular interest to us, residents of Mariupol, temporarily occupied by the Kiev authorities, is what methods Avakov with his degrading pack plans to reach the eastern borders of Novorossia. Obviously, on the "wooden horse", given the current combat potential of the Corps of the People’s Militia of the Republics. At the same time, the timeframes for the commencement of the offensive operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the Donbass Theater Department, which are regularly announced by Avakov, indicate that the time “H” in Kiev has long been known. Tuku talked about the autumn of the 2017 year, Avakov stops at the 17 and 18 years. It is very difficult to predict the date of the next attempt to conduct an offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the BCH, but there are already additional facts for this.
In the front row is the law on the permission to stay in the Ukrainian territory of foreign military units, which was adopted in the Verkhovna Rada on the initiative of the illegitimate president of Ukraine Poroshenko (Valtsman) on January 19, 2017. According to official information, this law gives permission for the transfer to Ukraine of the military units of the United States, Britain, Romania, Canada, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Poland in a total of approximately 3000 people with the aim of conducting the Rapid Trident-2017 military exercises, which will begin at the training ground in n.p. Starichi, Yavorivskyi district in the Lviv region. Also, the law refers to the arrival in the ports of the southern regions of the "independent" naval strike group of the NATO naval forces consisting of 10 surface ships, 5 submarines, 10 units. tactical aviation (including helicopters), as well as 60 units. lightly armored wheeled vehicles and more than 1500 people personnel. It seems to be an ordinary classic of the genre for Kiev: APU maneuvers with NATO Allied forces at the training grounds of Odessa, Nikolaev and Kherson regions (Shkolny, Kulbakino, Chernobaevka airfields, as well as the Yuzhny trading port and Ochakovo naval base).
But there is an interesting snag: the exercises in 2017 will be completed in September, just at the time when Kiev is going to begin aggressive actions against LDNR. The denouement in the Donbass is methodically brought under the period of the presence of naval and land units of the NATO Joint Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine, which may well lead to their unofficial involvement in the confrontation of Kiev with the armies of the DPR and the LPR. The question immediately arises: how can the united NATO forces be connected to a direct speech on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and how does the command of the North Atlantic alliance justify such a decision? Here there are two completely plausible versions.
The first is extremely simple, and the precedent for it can be considered the events that took place during the operation to force Georgia to peace in August 2008. Then, at the time of the Russian military contingent's deployment to the Georgian city of Poti, American army off-road vehicles “HMMWV” with advanced tactical information exchange equipment (including the use of satellite coded radio channels) were discovered, and ID cards of the US military were found in the depressed positions of the Georgian units. who, apparently, corrected the actions of the Georgian gunners. This speaks of the direct local participation of the West in that conflict, and Moscow did not wait for any clear explanations from the alliance at that time. What is not a reason for action in the case of the situation in an even more complex theater of military operations of Donbass?
The second version may lie in the simulation by the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, together with various NATO structures, casus belli, after which the alliance will not be able to respond by force. A serious provocation can be committed by Ukrainian military formations, which consists in launching a missile or bomb strike near the areas of concentration of the multinational contingent of the NATO Armed Forces at the training grounds of the Kherson region. One of them may be the landfill in Chernobaevka. For "fake" beats can be used as Drones with home-made "equipment", which are in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine and many countries of the alliance, and the operational-tactical complexes "Tochka-U" or "Elbrus", deployed in the northern part of Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. Naturally, the People's Militia Corps of the LDNR will be accused of all sins, which allegedly ventured into military aggression against NATO units and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Then the most unpredictable can begin.
The superior Ukrainian armored units, coordinated by NATO instructors, may well try to “break through” the defenses of the advanced fortified areas of the LPR People’s Police Corps in the area of Lugansk Stanitsa and try to advance 15-20 km on the Krasnodon OH. The offensive operation will take place with the support of large-caliber barrels and rocket artillery, whose positions are located in the area of the settlement of Happiness (near this settlement is also present tank the brigade represented by the T-64BV, and the 2-strong group of the Ukrainian military, pulled up in July 2016). The expected intensity of battles in this operational area can be extremely high. But even with the numerical superiority of the junta troops and military-technical support of NATO, the LPR army has many opportunities to drive the APU into another tactical "boiler" right on the border with Russia. And Russia will not sit idly by if a new round of confrontation provoked by Kiev, with active Western support, “lights up” right at the gates.
Here another interesting question arises: what is the likelihood of a comprehensive military support for Kiev from NATO under the new, supposedly more compliant regime of President D. Trump? There are no special illusions here, because even Trump doesn’t give a damn about what is happening in Ukraine, among his entourage there is such an unpredictable personality as 26-th Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who perceives all pro-Russian sentiments as a threat to the security of the US and the alliance. Even in the North Atlantic alliance, there may be a split, where the US will have more constructive relations with Moscow, and the European members - the United Kingdom, Denmark, Germany and France will continue to adhere to a more confrontational vector of relations, actively supporting Kiev in its outrages towards the republics of Donbass. This is evidenced by the statements of EU high-ranking officials in recent weeks. For example, on January 9, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, after Brussels consultations with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, expressed deep concern about the statements made by Donald Trump about the NATO's lack of prospects. At the same time, Steinmeier was fully supported by the aggressive rhetoric of James Mattis, observed at congressional hearings. Every day, the situation in the structure of the NATO bloc is becoming increasingly unstable, and the only thing that remains unchanged is that the number of local threats to the Russian Federation and its allies will increase in proportion to the growth of ideological chaos in the alliance itself, since each of its members or groups of participants will act in accordance with their own benefits.
The time has come to consider the defensive potential of the army corps of the LPR in the light of the upcoming summer-autumn attempts to break through the front line by the Ukrainian army in the area of the Village of Lugansk or in the Debaltsevskiy operational direction. As we said earlier, ukry on any of these areas have 2-, and even 3 -fold superiority in manpower, as well as almost 2 -fold superiority in the number of armored vehicles and artillery units. For this reason, the LC of the LC will have to rely only on 3 on its advantages - experience and motivation, announcement of general mobilization, as well as the presence of large settlements along the entire Northern Front (Lugansk, Alchevsk, Bryanka and Stakhanov); As is known, the network of fortified areas and strongholds near major cities significantly improves defensive capabilities, rather than in open spaces. Moreover, the high density of artillery firing points in these areas makes it possible to suppress the Ukrainian artillery deployed in the fields south of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk and Novoaydar. A huge role for the LC of the LC in this sector of the front will be played by the presence of counter-battery artillery reconnaissance radars (Aistyonok and Zoo), which will make it much easier to calculate the positions of Ukrainian artillery and mortar crews.
The artillery "fist" of the People’s Police Corps of the LNR today has very worthy and powerful arsenals capable of restraining the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the entire line of contact with the LPR. It is based on cannon and rocket artillery, which is in service with the 10 artillery brigade of the 2 Army Corps NM LC. It includes 18 220-mm multiple rocket launcher systems (MLRS) BM-27 (9K57) "Hurricane", a similar amount of 122-mm BM-21 (9K51) "Grad", 18 transported 152-mm howitzers AZNNXX) Grad, 2 36-mm NKXNNXX transported 18-mm howitz AZNNXX) Grad, 152 2 mmNNXX XGNUMX 65 24 40, Gradient , 39 2-mm howitzers 25A10 "Msta-B". The howitzers and MLRS that are part of the brigade have a range from 15 to 152 km, and therefore are able to easily “iron” distant approaches to the contact line and rear areas of the territories controlled by Kiev. In addition, from the large-caliber howitzers "Hyacinth-B" can be used specialized corrected artillery shell ZOF2 complex 65К10 "Krasnopol". They gunners Novorossia can conduct effective counterbattery fire on Ukrainian calculations, as well as fortifications in XNUMX-XNUMX km from the front line. These shells are also unified with XNUMX-XNUMX Msta-B XNUMX-mm cannons. In the warehouses of the XNUMX brigade there are tens of thousands of artillery and rocket projectiles of various types, which will support armored and infantry units for long weeks or even months of confrontation with the Ukrainian forces.
122-mm rocket launchers of the MLRS BM-21 "Grad" at one of the many military warehouses of the LC
And this is only a small part of the artillery armament, which is located at AK NM NMR. There are such units as: 6-th separate motorized rifle regiment "them. Matvey Platov "(Cossack), which is armed with a division of X-NUMX howitzers D-18 and a division of 30 18-mm SAU 122-2" Gvozdika "; OBRON 1-th AK NM NMR (Separate Special Purpose Brigade), which has a Grad, Carnations MLRS and other artillery; as well as the 2-th OMSBR of the 4-th AK NM NM, which also uses various artillery installations. In addition, there are other artillery units, thanks to which the total number of MLRS, SAU, howitzers and MT-2 anti-tank guns can reach 12 - 350 units, not counting hundreds of 400B120 type mortars. The force is quite impressive, and with accurate target designation with the help of a UAV, it is able to wipe out the advancing Ukrainian brigades and do-it-all. For the individual defense of the artillery units of the NM of the LC from tank platoons and brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, each of them may have its own “anti-tankists” armed with Metis-M anti-tank missiles, Konkurs, etc.
152-mm howitzer "Hyacinthe-B" on the repair base AK NM NMR
The tank fleet of the AK NM of the Luhansk People's Republic has more than 400 - 500 main battle tanks T-64BB, T-72B, most of which are equipped with the Dynamic Defense Systems "Contact-1" and in some cases "Contact-5". Infantry fighting vehicles BMP-2, which are in service with mechanized and motorized rifle subunits of the NM NM LPR, are also often equipped with the 4X22 “Contact-5” dynamic protection elements. Thanks to this technical solution of Luhansk residents, the survivability of the republic’s motorized rifle units has increased more than 2 times in comparison with the Ukrainian ones. At some firing angles (more than 55 hail to normal), the BMP-2 NM LC is now able to withstand hits from RPG-7 or Sapogov (military nickname LNG-9). The NM Corps of the Luhansk People's Republic, in fact, as well as the NM of the NPT DNR, is considered to be full-fledged armed forces: the structure has well-equipped Engineering troops, aerial reconnaissance units using UAVs, DER and air defense. So, for example, in the arsenal of the air defense units are the Osa-AK and Strela-10М3 self-propelled self-propelled complexes capable of covering the strategically important objects of the republics and military units from Ukrainian air strikes MiG-29А, Su-24М and Su -25. On the accounts of the Osa complexes LDNR already dozens of downed UAV UAVs.
An attempt by the Ukrainian military units to seize sections of the eastern border of Novorossia could also be made on the southern front. The APU, using significant numerical superiority, is capable of pushing through the defense of the Armed Forces of the DPR in the Telmanovsky isthmus section of the entire 35 km width. For this purpose, armored and artillery groups, which are currently deployed in the vicinity of Volnovakhi and Mariupol, will be involved. To avoid this, the command of the Armed Forces of the DPR must take a special look at the quantity and quality of fortified areas and anti-tank units in October, Novaya Maryevka and White Kamenka. For artillery support of tank companies and “antitankists” operating in this most complex and dangerous section of the contact line, at least one mixed artillery battalion, represented by the Hyacinth battery, the D-30 battery and the Gradov or Uragan battery, must be transferred under Telmanovo. ". Otherwise, the isthmus may be lost.
In the event that it is sufficiently strengthened, taking into account the presence of the Mariupol-Khingan separate SME’s counter-battery radar artillery reconnaissance 9, it will be possible to curb the offensive actions of the junta fairly quickly. And after that many tactical models will open up for the counteroffensive, including the formation of the Mariupol Cauldron (with a sweep from the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and a further march along the coast of the Sea of Azov. At the present moment, it remains only to closely monitor what steps Kiev will take in the near future, because the previously expected military-strategic stabilization from a regime change in the White House is hardly expected. As for the "Napoleonic plans" of Tuki and Avakov to seize the eastern borders of the independent republics of Donbass, they are more like the script of a fantastic series; but it is impossible not to take them into account, because the defensive capabilities of the NMDLNR army corps in some areas of the front line are far from ideal and to this day they need additional infantry units and equipment.
Information sources:
http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1752427.html
https://lenta.ru/news/2017/01/17/avakov/
http://shkvarki.org/donbass/item/12522-tuka-uveren-v-vozvrate-donbassa-maksimum-v-2018-godu
Information