Military Review

The new scenario of "Russian blitzkrieg" in the Baltic States went beyond the limits of reasonable

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The new scenario of "Russian blitzkrieg" in the Baltic States went beyond the limits of reasonableAmerican analysts of the journal The National Interest released a new script blitzkrieg Russia in the Baltic States. If similar documents earlier predicted that the invasion would take several days, something new - "a few hours". According to analysts, the Airborne Troops capture Tallinn and Riga so fast that not even have time to realize what is happening in the NATO headquarters.


The National Interest, an American magazine, reported on Thursday, “Inosmi”, decided to argue with a report released by the Rand Corporation Research Center in February last year, which is linked to the US Air Force. That report stated that Russia, in the event of an invasion of the Baltic States, was able to reach the capitals of Latvia and Estonia in less than three days. The National Interest is confident that Russia can seize the capital within a few hours when sending the bulk of the airborne forces to the Baltic States.

"Everything will be over"

According to the scenario, Russia will launch rocket attacks and airstrikes, “which will crush the defense of the Baltic countries,” and then conduct “a large-scale operation of the airborne troops” and a limited entry of ground forces into Lithuania from Kaliningrad. “Everything will be over before the alliance understands what is happening,” the article says.
The scenario is confirmed by the data of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, according to which last year Estonia had 5,3 thousands of troops from the regular ground forces, Latvia had 4,4 thousands, and Lithuania had 6 thousands. Plus, the Estonian authorities can call on 12 thousands from the militarized Estonian Defense League, while in Lithuania there are about 11,3 thousands of militia fighters. Also in the republics on a rotational basis are the military from the western countries of NATO.

“However, the likelihood that all these forces can be instantly assembled and put on alert is extremely small - and the same goes for reservists. We also should not hope that in the event of a sudden attack, the Baltic authorities will be able to fully assemble regular ground forces - given the possible loss of the ability of governments to communicate during the first hours of the conflict, ”the newspaper writes, saying that Russian soldiers“ are much better prepared and equipped than their potential adversary. "

According to The National Interest, at best, Russia will be able to deploy only half of the airborne troops due to the lack of transport aircraft. “Nevertheless, we must take into account the likelihood that Russia can land approximately 10 thousands of paratroopers if it uses all of its IL-76 planes, which it currently has 91,” the article says.

The forecast of the journal is based on data about the Russian exercises, which were held last year by 18 and in which "airborne troops took part." “In addition, two motorized rifle brigades and a marine brigade are currently located in Kaliningrad. Their total number is 14 thousand soldiers and supported by an artillery brigade,” writes the magazine.

As the newspaper VZGLYAD previously reported, in fact, since the beginning of the 90s, the number of troops in the Kaliningrad region has sharply decreased. The 11th Army located there was completely disbanded. At that time, it consisted of more than 90 thousand people. According to open data, now the units in the region are insignificant and cannot even pose a threat to NATO from a theoretical point of view. So, in the same Baltic fleet only a few connections are included. If in 1991 it included 32 submarines, now only two remain. The number of combat aircraft in Kaliningrad also decreased by an order of magnitude.
At the beginning of 2010, according to open data, the number of ground troops of the Kaliningrad defensive region was 10 military, plus 500 of the marine corps. Also in the region there were less than 1100 tanks, about 500 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, at least 600 guns and mortars. Of course, the number of Baltic Fleet sailors should be added to this, but it has also been sharply reduced since Soviet times.

However, the reports of the Rand Corporation still seemed very serious to the Pentagon. In the summer, her report was used by Assistant US Deputy Secretary of Defense Michael Carpenter, who at a hearing in the Senate Committee on International spoke about the possibility of Russia seizing the Baltic states in 60 hours. So he justified the deployment of additional US forces in the size of the armored brigade combat group on NATO’s eastern flank. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded to the report, assuring that the alliance is ready "to protect all allies from any threats, and this is also the reason why we are now adapting our defense organization."

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly stated that the NATO leadership is inflating the myth of the "Russian threat." This is especially true of the countries of Central Europe, including the Baltic states. Russia has no aggressive intentions towards these countries.

Do not bother to look Charter

The editor-in-chief of the magazine Arsenal of the Fatherland, Viktor Murakhovsky, told the newspaper VIEW that he had read the material in The National Interest and believed that he had nothing to comment on.

“To begin with, it is absolutely incorrect to deduce the number of personnel from the number of the military who participated in the exercises. Calculate this estimated number can be, for this all you need to know the content of such a thing as "airborne operation." The fantasies of the authors are absolutely not connected with its reality, there is nothing to comment on. The compilers of the material did not even bother to look at the Airborne Forces Statute, where the main stages of this operation are marked, ”said a military expert.

Murakhovsky noted that the authors of the report mention as an example that the garrison of the Estonian Kuperyanovsky separate infantry battalion in the city of Võru is located just 80 km from the Russian military unit in the Pskov region. Analysts conclude that the garrison will be an easy target for the rockets with which the Smerch BM-30 is firing, which the Russian part is equipped with. “That is, in their opinion, the Smerch will fire exclusively from the territory of a military unit?” Apparently, they will be deployed somewhere on the parade ground, between the barracks? ”He wonders. In addition, the military expert said, 88 km is the firing range of the Soviet version of the Smerch MLRS. "Now the figures are different, but what are the military secrets," Murakhovsky added. In his opinion, the material was compiled by simply illiterate people.

"An example of degenerative military analytics"

A military expert from Latvia, Yuri Melkonov, also called the material "a vivid example of degenerative military analytics." “To say that the author of the material adhered to some methodology, for example, it calculates the approximate number of personnel in the intended operation in the Baltic States, in general, it is impossible. It is enough just to mention that never any maneuvers have developed into a full-fledged attack afterwards, the expert has told the LOOK to the newspaper. “Personally, I presented a person sitting in family underpants on the couch and writing this“ analytical ”material.”
However, according to Melkonov, the publication does not cause him laughter. “In the armed forces of the main NATO countries, in particular in the United States and Britain, there are special departments leading the information war. Such analysts are throwing such publications into the Network - in order to create a sense of danger and insecurity, in this case, among the population of the Baltic republics, ”he explained.

“This is even taught in military schools. The weak point of this, if I may say so, analysts is that the authors of such stuffing hold their audience, to put it mildly, for fools, ”the military expert believes.

In this case, according to Melkonov, the society is being prepared for another increase in the number of Western NATO countries in the Baltic States, in particular, in the US. “In the Baltic countries, there are already people who are ready to greet Americans - liberators from the mythical Russian aggressors with flowers. We will see that tomorrow Mr. Obama will be removed from work, then we will see what will happen next, ”the expert concluded.
Author:
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http://www.vz.ru/politics/2017/1/19/698731.html
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  1. Kenneth
    Kenneth 21 January 2017 15: 33
    +6
    It’s funny to you, but I personally learned how to make a navigational pad for landing on the territory of Estonia. True, it was at the beginning of 90 and there were no other cards at the department.
    1. Evil543
      Evil543 21 January 2017 16: 50
      +6
      And in our part all the layouts and maps were with German names ... Yes, let them be afraid, somehow we do not mind repeat
      1. novobranets
        novobranets 21 January 2017 16: 52
        +16
        Quote: Evil543
        Yes, let them be afraid, somehow we do not mind

  2. izya top
    izya top 21 January 2017 15: 33
    +8
    paranoia, paranoia, paranoia is somewhere between the western ears fool
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 21 January 2017 16: 12
      +3
      Quote: izya top
      paranoia, paranoia, paranoia is somewhere between the western ears


      Hey.
      Well, they fix it, they are afraid, that means we are doing everything right. yes
      1. alvog
        alvog 22 January 2017 05: 04
        0
        No, the feeling that they are simply dreaming of our invasion, suggest how we better do this. Not enough for us Ukrainian dreamers?
  3. Vladimirets
    Vladimirets 21 January 2017 15: 39
    +3
    "NATO headquarters will not even have time to realize what is happening."

    Maybe the point of the publication is to recruit more thinking people to the headquarters? request
    1. Papapg
      Papapg 21 January 2017 18: 52
      +2
      No, the meaning of the publication is in our kindness, we are kind and polite, therefore we will not disbelieve their genius, let all healthy and capable of repelling "aggression" be put in trenches, let all B / Cs open all the prices and wait, and suddenly the aggressor will dream , it's 50 to 50, either it will or not, but let them wait, maybe ...
      1. Rom14
        Rom14 21 January 2017 19: 24
        +2
        Or maybe out of kindness of soul to give them a gun ??? So that they shoot themselves out of fear and the Light is not balanced.
    2. LPD17
      LPD17 21 January 2017 19: 06
      +2
      yeah))) they’re just across the mediterranean sea on the longboats in the hundreds of thousands crossing)))
      What, no, but the landing training)))
      Transfer facilities mastered, who is not a flood)))
      1. your1970
        your1970 21 January 2017 20: 56
        +1
        By the way - yes, in Europe there is quite a real landing of amphibious assault from the Mediterranean Sea ....
  4. Spartanez300
    Spartanez300 21 January 2017 15: 46
    +2
    A few hours so a few hours, we will not reassure you.
  5. private person
    private person 21 January 2017 16: 06
    +4
    Funny article, let the Balts tremble. But why the hell did they give up? Let the EU continue to feed them and provide jobs.
    1. Evdokim
      Evdokim 21 January 2017 17: 50
      +1
      Balts just rushing from their own significance. Such a big enemy (Russia) wants to enslave them, deprive a blessed democracy, take away the last sprat, and all that. They are preparing for the invasion, and Russia does not want to fight like that, it turns out not to be profitable. It's a shame to them whether you understand green devils or squirrels. laughing tongue bully
  6. sabakina
    sabakina 21 January 2017 16: 07
    +4
    We also should not hope that in the event of a sudden attack the authorities of the Baltic countries will be able to fully assemble regular ground forces

    As I understand it, we will move equipment to the border at night in our hands in complete radio silence. And so that no one smoked !!!
    According to The National Interest, Russia, at best, will be able to deploy only half of the airborne troops due to a lack of transport aircraft. “Nevertheless, we must take into account the likelihood that Russia can land about 10 thousand paratroopers if it uses all of its IL-76 aircraft, of which it currently has 91”

    What? belay Obviously they don’t know about Antei and the maize.
  7. naGua
    naGua 21 January 2017 16: 08
    +3
    Geometric progression in sour minds is evident! First they click about the weeks, then the days, now about the hours. You see we happen to hear about the minutes, and then the fantasy tells us that there are also seconds and milliseconds laughing . Who is less ?! Bets are made!
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Rurikovich
      Rurikovich 21 January 2017 18: 36
      +4
      Quote: naGua
      You see we happen to hear about the minutes, and then the fantasy tells us that there are also seconds and milliseconds

      So they will leave in cons what wassat
      In a simple way - we won’t even think to attack, and they will come to surrender laughing
  8. BOB044
    BOB044 21 January 2017 16: 13
    +12
    Sick for the whole head. Capture the Baltic countries and then feed and support them. Enough in the days of the USSR they were well fed, now let them switch to pasture. good
  9. vobels
    vobels 21 January 2017 16: 24
    +1
    [quote] [/ quote] Personally, I imagined a man sitting in family shorts on the couch and writing this "analytical" material. " And they forgot to mention the fee. Apparently they paid well if they gave birth to such nonsense.
  10. Koshak
    Koshak 21 January 2017 16: 25
    +1
    As in the anecdote of perestroika times: they declared independence, declared war .... and immediately surrendered, so that they would be provided with a well-fed, calm life .. somehow smile
  11. Stinger
    Stinger 21 January 2017 16: 32
    0
    Analysts conclude that the garrison will be an easy target for missiles that shoots BM-30 "Smerch", which is equipped with the Russian part

    Not right. First, they quietly crawl and grab the authors by their genitals, and only then they will shoot from Tornado!
  12. The comment was deleted.
  13. raid14
    raid14 21 January 2017 16: 38
    +4
    Why do we need the Baltic states?
    Russia does not need living space, unlike the European quasi-states of dwarfs.
    There are no natural resources in the Baltic states, plus a hostile population, it is not easier to minimize their losses by using tactical charges, taking into account the wind rose and the spread of residual radiation.
    American analysts miscalculated, the bill will go not for hours, but for minutes.
    1. avg-mgn
      avg-mgn 21 January 2017 17: 31
      0
      Before writing about tactical charges, study the "wind rose" in the region, this is so between times, to understand the issue and overall development.
      1. raid14
        raid14 21 January 2017 18: 13
        0
        About the wind rose, read the comment "carefully" before you shine with your wisdom.
  14. 2я19
    2я19 21 January 2017 16: 39
    +1
    "Russia will do this and that with the Baltic states in a few hours, this and that! Tra-ta-ta" Why? Does it make any sense? Or ananatics get paid for something else ...
  15. iouris
    iouris 21 January 2017 16: 39
    0
    Most likely, the troops are deployed closer to the borders in anticipation of drastic political changes in the Russian Federation: to provide "moral support".
  16. volodya
    volodya 21 January 2017 16: 41
    +2
    I really want them to attack, but we will not attack, probably we are very harmful!
  17. Shadow of darkness
    Shadow of darkness 21 January 2017 16: 46
    +1
    What is there for several hours? These countries can be captured in a few seconds, it is enough to have a sufficiently large pack of the most powerful weapons in modern history - dollars. Whoever has this weapon will have the Baltic states and more!
    1. your1970
      your1970 21 January 2017 21: 01
      0
      I'm sure for some reason repeat lol - that if you give the limitrophs 10-20 billion dollars, they will shout that Russia is a friend and spit in the direction of the USA and the EU, and if you give 30-50 they will kick the American ambassadors with kicks ..
      it is a pity of course that we do not have superfluous - I would love to look at this circus .....
      1. Shadow of darkness
        Shadow of darkness 22 January 2017 15: 33
        +1
        It is also important not only how much greenery to give, but also to whom to give and how to organize this transfer. "Non-brothers" for a few lard bought, their entire country, along with its population. hi
  18. Vodila
    Vodila 21 January 2017 17: 02
    0
    Nonsense............
  19. muhomor
    muhomor 21 January 2017 17: 12
    0
    And what is the conclusion of the report? request To increase the NATO grouping in the Baltic states? And by whom? And how much? It seems that a whole tank battalion has already been deployed. fellow Baltic borders are inaccessible! laughing
  20. avg-mgn
    avg-mgn 21 January 2017 17: 13
    +5
    I personally have always had and still have a question - and why the hell is it for us, this Baltic? Gentlemen, if you really need it, take it for nothing. Ready to pay $ 10 (no more) so that I would never hear this name again.
  21. nakhtigalsif
    nakhtigalsif 21 January 2017 17: 36
    0
    Nice and informative article. In NI again, some horseradish coffee spilled and let's wang. In the "Cossacks" or something, like them, will beat. Thank you, parzhal. laughing
  22. Darth Revan
    Darth Revan 21 January 2017 18: 16
    +1
    This is not Klitschko, an hour, wrote?
  23. antivirus
    antivirus 21 January 2017 18: 20
    0
    If previous similar documents predicted that the invasion would take several days, then the new one would take “several hours”. According to analysts, the Airborne Forces will capture Tallinn and Riga
    I always knew this, but these just thought of it.
    1. Rurikovich
      Rurikovich 21 January 2017 18: 40
      +4
      Quote: antivirus
      If previous similar documents predicted that the invasion would take several days, then the new one would take “several hours”. According to analysts, the Airborne Forces will capture Tallinn and Riga

      Yes, you all swim finely - take it deeper
  24. TOR2
    TOR2 21 January 2017 18: 45
    +2
    According to the scenario, Russia will launch rocket fire and airstrikes “that will sweep away the defense of the Baltic countries”, and then conduct a “large-scale operation of the airborne troops” and a limited deployment of ground forces to Lithuania from Kaliningrad

    And why only Russia !!! Old Man also wants a piece of cake. So the Khan of the Baltic. Give her for three. Or rather for two.
    1. Rurikovich
      Rurikovich 21 January 2017 18: 58
      +1
      Quote: TOR2
      Old Man also wants a piece of cake. So the Khan of the Baltic. Give her for three. Or rather for two.

      So what? what Vilno we would have taken, current without zhikharou soldier wassat
    2. ValeriN
      ValeriN 22 January 2017 20: 31
      +1
      The "Old Man" has a fleet, but no outlet to the sea. He will definitely come in handy
  25. Fucknato
    Fucknato 21 January 2017 19: 21
    +1
    # They are not needed. Well, absolutely ... !!!
    1. Shadow of darkness
      Shadow of darkness 23 January 2017 14: 51
      0
      Well, you so right away, took and issued the most terrible secret of Russia.
  26. upadeishev
    upadeishev 21 January 2017 19: 28
    0
    If, following the example of James Forrestal, these "experts" leap down from the upper floors, maybe finally there will be normal ones, with whom one can communicate in the language of peace and understanding ...
  27. Nikolaevich_2
    Nikolaevich_2 21 January 2017 19: 37
    +1
    I COULD NOT UNDERSTAND A LOT OF POLITICS AND OTHER GUMPS, BUT WHO CAN EXPLAIN TO ME, WHY, SUDDENLY THEY DECIDED THAT RUSSIA SHOULD ATTACK THE "Baltic" ??? It's ridiculous to call these territories, even countries, and they also come in there! WHY THEY ARE RUSSIA?
    1. Rurikovich
      Rurikovich 21 January 2017 21: 09
      0
      Quote: Nikolaevich_2
      WHY THEY ARE RUSSIA?

      Well, the Baltic states and ask? what
  28. faiver
    faiver 21 January 2017 19: 49
    0
    another series of circus? :)
  29. wanderer_032
    wanderer_032 21 January 2017 19: 52
    +1
    Informational escalation of hysteria near the western borders of Russia is a sure sign of NATO’s impending military aggression. Information support is called.
    1. c3r
      c3r 27 January 2017 12: 55
      0
      The information hysteria about the impending NATO attack on the Internet is the first sign of panic! Here's how to invite to the mobpoint at the appropriate time, and show your knowledge and skills, but for now do not escalate!
  30. scaramaks27
    scaramaks27 21 January 2017 19: 57
    0
    Why is Dahl silent? Well, Zhenya Psakova in maternity leave, give her and her child God of health, they say everything about the Tribaltics, and Dalia is silent, MISSION! Soon there will be a two-Baltic, because infa has appeared in the networks that the hot Estonian guys are soooooooooo!
  31. Vo-wa
    Vo-wa 21 January 2017 22: 47
    +3
    The Baltics can and should be conquered and annexed to Russia. Yes, let it be!) After all, there is a sea) Only not in hours and not even in a week - in twenty years. BUT - without a single shot. You just need to support the Russians living there. You can feed them with maternal capital, you can throw in the "father's capital" - let them "breed and multiply." Latvians-Lithuanians and other Estonians are dying out and are leaving for Europe, and let our people live for themselves. When there will be more "indigenous" Russians there - and this is inevitable - "we will peacefully reunite"))) If the United Russia was smarter, it would conduct such a policy ... Slowly ... how the Chinese are conquering us.
    Hypothesis, like that)))
    1. ValeriN
      ValeriN 22 January 2017 20: 37
      0
      But an interesting hypothesis. There is no Tribaltic - there is no NATO tank battalion and threats from the north-west direction and, most importantly, everything is quiet and peaceful, in strict accordance with international law
  32. Roman96
    Roman96 21 January 2017 23: 20
    0
    “An example of degenerative military analytics” ... well, in general, you don’t even have to continue ... they are degenerates and in Africa they are degenerates.
  33. Larra anathema
    Larra anathema 21 January 2017 23: 35
    0
    The poor Balts are probably hiccuping with fear, so they are intimidated. belay
    A little more - and they themselves will declare war on us, and they will go to war, so that they no longer suffer from the expectation of 3,14 here, "when will the Russians finally attack and kill everyone." From competently inspired hopelessness.
  34. tolmachiev51
    tolmachiev51 22 January 2017 04: 20
    0
    What for !!!??? Again to step on the "Soviet rake" - you will then have to contain parasites! Let the Germans contain it.
  35. shinobi
    shinobi 22 January 2017 05: 01
    0
    Let someone from these "analytegs" objectively prove to me the urgent need to capture the Baltic states. The countries at the moment have no geopolitical or military-strategic importance, secretly dreaming of a Russian occupier.
  36. Portuguese boat
    Portuguese boat 22 January 2017 08: 35
    0
    All of these scribbles in US magazines and newspapers are concocted precisely in order to somehow cover up NATO’s military preparations for an attack on the Russian Federation and make themselves victims of Russia's alleged aggression.
  37. Nikolaevich_2
    Nikolaevich_2 22 January 2017 09: 03
    0
    INTERESTING! WHAT HAS "GOVERNED BEYOND REASONABLE" WHEN WRITING A COMMENT !? DID NOT scold ANYONE.
  38. Lexa-149
    Lexa-149 22 January 2017 10: 47
    0
    "As long as there are fools in the world,
    By deceiving us, therefore, with our hands.
    A fool doesn’t need a knife!
    You’re lying to him from three baskets
    And do what you want with him ... "
  39. pussamussa
    pussamussa 23 January 2017 09: 26
    0
    The Balts are doing their utmost to provoke Russia to take them back for maintenance.
  40. c3r
    c3r 27 January 2017 12: 49
    0
    We’ll invade Yugoslavia and Iraq as Americans. One-on-one plan. Anything new! For example, a good idea with digging (digging) and even the bottom of the Baltic Sea, what’s not the villainous plan of totalitarian Russia against the defenseless Baltic? They will crawl out of the land of land at night on their underground tanks, planes and submarines and defeat the spratmen each time, or even three! Horror, it’s scary to yourself! DEBOS are masochists! wassat