Military Review

Why Trump became president: real reasons from former top manager Lehman Brothers

31
Why Trump became president: real reasons from former top manager Lehman Brothers



Lawrence MacDonald, who worked as vice president at Lehman Brothers and who is the author of the bestseller about his collapse, last week visited Moscow and spoke at the conference “Global Economy and Financial Markets in an Era of Uncertainty: Scenarios and Forecasts”, in which it explained the reason for the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election. Anton Zapolsky from the National Rating Agency wrote down theses of a famous financier - it turned out very informative.

On my first visit to Russia, which came in the period immediately after completion historical Presidential campaign in the United States, I was surprised to find that the mainstream media agenda in my homeland and in Russia is almost no different. Although I expected that the period of official cooling in relations between our countries would prompt the Russian media to be more skeptical news American media, demonstrated in this election campaign its phenomenal engagement and bias. I was sure that healthy skepticism and the ability to evaluate events from afar would help the Russian media to remain more or less objective, but now I understand that I was wrong in general.

Both in New York and here in Moscow, I saw strikingly similar cliches and media stories that showed the public the basic interpretations of the "sensational" results of the presidential campaign and the reasons for the victory of Donald Trump’s election. It seems to me that it's time to move on and show a slightly different picture of the events that took place, based on more than eloquent facts.

VICTORY TRAMP IS NOT A SENSATION

Over the past one and a half years since Donald Trump was nominated for the presidency in 2015, his path exactly repeated the typical path of the leader in Mahatma Gandhi: "You are not noticed first - then they laugh at you - then they fight - then you win." Of course, the attitude towards Trump as the most incredible winner of the presidential election played into his hands, but did not become the main reason. Let's look at the statistics



Since 2010, i.e. already in the second year of the first presidency of Barack Obama, the Democrats began to rapidly lose the support of American voters and, accordingly, began to lose places at all levels of government: from governors to senators. Over the past 7 years, the Democratic Party has lost 10% of the seats in the Senate, about 20% in the Congress and 35% of the posts of governors. This led to the fact that

NOW IN THE USA THE REPRESENTATIVE OFFICE OF THE REPUBLICANS IN ALL THE ELECTIONAL AUTHORITIES INSTITUTIONS IS THE MOST SCALE WITH THE 1924 OF THE YEAR

But this is rather protest support, that is, the result of discontent with the democrats. Remembering this statistic, the fact that in the 2010 year, despite such catastrophic losses in the Senate and Congress, Obama was able to run for a second term, does not speak about Obama’s popularity, but about the extreme shortage of leaders in the Republican party. The two consecutive presidential terms of Barack Obama could mislead outside observers about his popularity with American citizens, but this is simply the result of the phenomenal deficit of real leaders among Republicans, who were brilliantly used by Donald Trump. And this is nothing sensational. Sensational, rather, the victory of Barack Obama in 2010, but more on that below.

FAKING NEWS, SOCIAL NETWORKS AND “RUSSIAN HACKERS” - NOT MORE THAN MEDIA STORIES

Many experts on both sides of the ocean are now actively discussing the so-called fake news spreading about Hillary Clinton during the pre-election race by Trump's headquarters on social networks that allegedly influenced the decision of ordinary Americans who voted for Trump to succumb to propaganda. But here it is worth looking more widely at this problem. First, the fake news spread from both headquarters: Donald Trump was massively distributed messages, and he was charged with crimes of a sexual nature. Well, and secondly, many of the news, which are considered fake, turned out to be quite real.

It is enough to mention the fact that before these elections the Clinton Foundation received about $ 120 million of financial support from Saudi Arabia, and in total from all the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, the foundation received more than $ 200 million for the presidential election campaign.



And the most curious thing: in the eyes of many American citizens, the majority of traditional media reports are more fake news than news from the Internet. According to a Gallup Media study, since 1997, American confidence in the media has steadily declined and reached its lowest point in the entire history of observations: in 2016, only 33% of Americans trusted media reports at 53% in 1997.

Even more telling is the fact that young Americans trust the media much less than the older generation - 26% versus 38%. Therefore, the problem is not that the Americans "bought" on fake news from social networks, but that they are looking for information on the Internet, because they are completely disappointed in the official media. But for journalists this fact is extremely unpleasant and they try not to advertise it.

And here social media, fake news and "Russian hackers" when it comes to the fact that Trump won in the traditionally democratic Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the Republicans have not won since Reagan !?

Many in Russia, when assessing geography and social strata, are guided only by states, but in the US there is also a division into counties (counties), and here we see Trump's overwhelming superiority: he won 3140 (!) Counties, and Clinton only in 58, Trump won in 30 states from 50 (Bloomberg, Reuters, RCP Data). This is such a convincing victory in all respects that it’s simply unthinkable to write it off entirely on the influence of social networks, especially since Trump’s main electorate is older people, and social networks have influenced them to a much lesser extent than various experts. "

VICTORY TRAMP: RIOT AGAINST GLOBALIZATION AND INDIVIDUALS

Let's immediately forget all the major media stories that are telling you from TV screens. It is much more important to talk about the most realistic and important reasons that a simple American citizen - Joe Lunchpail - turned away from establishment candidates from both Democrats and Republicans, turned away from mainstream media, went against the opinion of the so-called “public” and Hollywood pop. stars and voted for the scandalous scandalous billionaire. I will try to be brief.

UNEMPLOYMENT, DEGREE GROWTH, SOCIAL AND RACIAL STRESS, INCOMES FALL

1. According to a McKinsey study, more than 70% of Americans said that their income has declined over the past 10 years (McKinsey);

2. With 1973, the revenues of 1% of the richest Americans increased by 73%, the incomes of all the rest fell by 5% (Reuters, Bloomberg);

3. Total US wage growth slowed from 4,2% in 2010, to 2,4% in 2016 (BLS, Bloomberg);

4. The number of permanent jobs in the United States grew from 2007, to 2,1 million, while the US population grew by 29,4 million in the same period (BLS data);

5. The US Steel Belt, consisting of the states in which the largest steel and automobile factories were concentrated (Illinois, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio) is now called Rust Belt, where unemployment is highest in the country , crime, mortality (Bloomberg)



6. Youth unemployment in the 18-24 age group has been at its highest levels over the past 50 years. The number of working Americans in this age group does not exceed 45% (Bloomberg);

7. In 1970, the number of Americans who did not pay taxes was 11% of the US population. In 2016, their number was 49%. Almost 50% of Americans do not work and do not pay taxes! Since 2000, this figure has increased by 15%! (CBO, FED, Treasury data)

8. The number of working Americans has declined from 2000 of the year to 28 million people. In December 2016, the number of non-working Americans exceeded 95 million people (BLS data);

9. Since the 2000 of the year, every sixth workplace has disappeared from industrial production - these are 3,2 million jobs (BLS data);



10. Middle-class incomes of Americans and Europeans increased by 1988-2008% from 1 to 5, while middle-class incomes in Asia grew by 60-70%, 5% incomes of the richest people in the USA and Europe grew by 40-45%. Globalization has deprived the middle class of jobs in the West, has enriched the owners of companies and increased the well-being of the population of the poorest countries of Asia (Harvard Business Review, Eranko Milanovic);

11. From 2000, US labor productivity dropped by 2,5% - from 2,9% to 0,4% (BEA, Bloomberg);

12. Public debt during Barack Obama’s presidency grew from $ 8,8 trillion in 2008 to $ 18,5 trillion in 2016, while US GDP growth over the same period was 9,5%, that is, an average of 1,19% per year. These are the lowest rates in the last 25 years (World Bank);

13. “The unemployment rate among young African-Americans and Hispanics without college degrees remains extremely high,” Janet Yellen, June 2016

14. In 2015, out of 1 750 000, approved African-American consumer banking loans accounted for only 36 500, or 2% of total issuance (US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Federal Housing Administration (FHA));



15. Only 45% of African American families and 47% of Latin American families are homeowners, despite the fact that among white Americans this proportion exceeds 70% (Study of income and participation in the mortgage lending program, Panel Wave 2011);

conclusions

American voters were the main losers in the globalization of the world economy. Their interests were deliberately neglected over the past 20 years, cleverly disguising the dismantling of the industrial sector and the social sphere with gigantic debt borrowings, at the expense of which votes of dependents and minorities were bought, ensuring the victory of the establishment in the presidential election.

The US came up with 2016 with a national debt exceeding 100% of the country's GDP and a national debt of households exceeding 200% of GDP. The American society is divided and atomized, and the scale of property inequality brings it to the top 10 countries by the share of wealth concentrated in 1% of the richest people in the country. Despite the liberal and politically correct rhetoric of the authorities in the person, including the first African American president, the level of inequality among racial and national communities continues to increase rapidly, and the degree of social tension has already gone beyond the ordinary problem and turned into a series of bloody clashes between citizens and the police, as well as attacks on policemen.

The country's labor potential is rapidly drying up, and the proportion of dependents who do not pay taxes and do not create added value for the economy is growing rapidly, taking the most valuable cadres - young Americans whom the system demotivates to work in favor of living for benefits, which the remaining able-bodied citizens will have to pay.

Fatigue of US citizens from the unchanged course of liberalism, political correctness and globalization should have led to a paradigm shift a long time ago, but this could not happen in the absence of a strong charismatic leader. Donald Trump, no matter how controversial and scandalous his image, is an outstanding, strong-willed and very charismatic person, and that is why his victory became possible with such a serious separation from the establishment representative.

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http://fomag.ru/ru/news/NewsDetails.aspx?bid=67&news=11883
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  1. Razvedka_Boem
    Razvedka_Boem 28 December 2016 06: 12
    +8
    And then everything is about us, but about us ..) I think the article is a good answer to "all-propals". The data are well known, but in this case they are collected in one place, as well as from an American.
    1. Tatar 174
      Tatar 174 28 December 2016 06: 45
      +6
      If Obama and his presidents before him spent a lot of money on actions that the people around the rest of the world did not need instead of creating new jobs in their country and improving the lives of their people, rather than some dill with the Balts and Poles, then this was to be expected. of what happened. The people went to the polls and said what they wanted. Naturally and logically, in the end, Trump came, who told people that he would improve the life of his compatriots inside the country, and not friendly USA, but useless countries somewhere there.
    2. Finches
      Finches 28 December 2016 07: 25
      11
      With all my commitment to the course of our President, I will take the liberty of recommending to him, and especially his team in the Government, to pay close attention to this kind of data in order to avoid mistakes and correct already made in matters of the state’s internal economy and social politics ... 2018 is just around the corner! Yes, and 2017 - the year in historical perspective is extremely entertaining ...!
      1. antivirus
        antivirus 28 December 2016 08: 14
        +7
        there is no reason to rejoice in us. statistics are known both in the United States and in our country. Only we did not go into that state of aggregation, as in the US. We are semi-rural. Logistics (inversely proportional to social ties, including simple human communication) because of the roads and communications is weak, the mobility of the population is ha-ha (it is still called "out-of-pocket fishing"), the population density per sq. Km is as follows. that we will not populate and create a country-territory, as in the United States or Germany. 300 km from the Kremlin - the hares are running (in October I saw a gray one) and roads with broken asphalt.
        how to create if the teachers and paramedics do not live better than the peasants and the slave of the outskirts?
        1. ghby
          ghby 28 December 2016 10: 27
          +3
          Quote: antivirus
          300 km from the Kremlin - hares run (in October I saw gray)

          This is good.
          1. antivirus
            antivirus 28 December 2016 16: 49
            0
            Hare 500 m from the asphalt. but it is full of holes, at 3 speeds to go and winds (along the trail of a lorry. Apparently built in the 60 -70s. and a lorry drove in 30 years-following the trail of a stallion, locked into a cart, which in turn followed a mare (see the road of Kulebaki - Levino-Valtovo, but you will not see the height differences - "junkies") And this is in the 21st century.
        2. bk316
          bk316 28 December 2016 18: 47
          +2
          300 km from the Kremlin - hares run (

          Well, you’re definitely mishandled bully
          Any Muscovite knows: moose 30 km from the Kremlin.
          And 300 km from the Kremlin are moose, wild boars and BEARS.
          And the broken roads are tired of writing 300 km from the white house.
          1. antivirus
            antivirus 28 December 2016 22: 21
            0
            there are wild boars. but further into the wilderness. where there is no holey asf - only straightened fur with a shovel lane.
        3. Normal ok
          Normal ok 29 December 2016 14: 25
          0
          Quote: antivirus
          300 km ohm from the Kremlin - hares run (saw gray in October) and roads with broken asphalt.

          Well, hares - not an indicator. He himself saw the hare in 10 km from Odessa, almost in the center of a large village. Moreover, it is a gray hare and not a rabbit. And about the roads - you haven’t seen ours)))
          1. antivirus
            antivirus 29 December 2016 16: 51
            0
            at the same time, Shantsev and Belozerov are preparing to build the high-speed rail to Kazan and further - BEIJING.
            How to build interchanges and railway crossings and the roads themselves if there are no roads? And still we will live!
      2. 210ox
        210ox 28 December 2016 18: 25
        +4
        As for HIS TEAM in the government? I doubt that this is the case .. The posts of ministers are assigned rather strange personalities, not deserving and it’s not clear why they were even allowed into the reception room ..
        Quote: Finches
        With all my commitment to the course of our President, I will take the liberty of recommending to him, and especially his team in the Government, to pay close attention to this kind of data in order to avoid mistakes and correct already made in matters of the state’s internal economy and social politics ... 2018 is just around the corner! Yes, and 2017 - the year in historical perspective is extremely entertaining ...!
  2. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 28 December 2016 06: 59
    +5
    A man would no less convincingly substantiate the reasons for Clinton’s victory in the elections, if that were the case.
    In hindsight, we are all strong.
    1. thinker
      thinker 28 December 2016 08: 40
      +2
      Exactly, everything is so logical and beautifully painted, if you do not remember that Hillary’s separation from Trump is almost three million votes. request
    2. 0255
      0255 28 December 2016 17: 16
      0
      Quote: Michael m
      A man would no less convincingly substantiate the reasons for Clinton’s victory in the elections, if that were the case.

      so they wrote earlier, "the damn American capitalists will not let poor Trump come to power, Hillary will come, but nothing, nothing, there will definitely be a little bit of America with her" laughing
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 28 December 2016 07: 11
    +5
    So we will assume that Trump's victory is not an accident, but a historical regularity firmly standing on the major mistakes of the previous presidents of the United States.
    1. Evdokim
      Evdokim 28 December 2016 11: 34
      +3
      Correctly, the ideological department of the Regional Committee dialectically substantiated both victory and the further development of developed capitalism, in light of the condemnation of the cult of globalism and excesses in domestic economic policy, which led to the negative attitude of the American voter. laughing
      1. rotmistr60
        rotmistr60 28 December 2016 12: 01
        +1
        I will continue your thought. Following your artistic comparison, Obama is an American EBN that led the country, if not to collapse, then to defeats in many directions.
        1. Evdokim
          Evdokim 28 December 2016 12: 07
          +1
          Well, not EBN, but judging by the striking graphs given in the article, we can assume something like that.
      2. Normal ok
        Normal ok 29 December 2016 14: 27
        0
        Quote: Evdokim
        Correctly, the ideological department of the Regional Committee dialectically substantiated both victory and the further development of developed capitalism, in light of the condemnation of the cult of globalism and excesses in domestic economic policy, which led to the negative attitude of the American voter. laughing

        Super. I remembered the political information in the division in 1988. laughing
  4. antivirus
    antivirus 28 December 2016 08: 05
    +3
    VICTORY TRAMP: RIOT AGAINST GLOBALIZATION AND INDIVIDUALS
    And where are the carriers onet hide? The inertia of a large system is huge. They will continue to fight.
    Trump --- little by little past the box office
  5. Operator
    Operator 28 December 2016 11: 57
    +2
    It is clearly stated that all the achievements of the United States over the past 8 years have been realized only due to the growth of external debt by 10 trillion. dollars.

    Moreover, the level of this debt exceeded the size of annual GDP, i.e. You can repay a loan only by installments - with the consent of the creditors. Suppose it will be necessary to give back within 10 years - will the Americans agree to cut their expenses by 10 percent?
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 28 December 2016 21: 43
      0
      Operator

      What kind of income can Americans talk about if their debt continues to grow ... crying

      But you posed the question correctly. Americans will very painfully fall to their real level.

      Auto RU.

      Your opinion is very similar to the opinions of other analysts.

      Over the past two weeks, there is a very good video on YouTube from Jacob Kedmi.
      In fact the same, only in other words.
      1. Operator
        Operator 28 December 2016 21: 56
        +1
        GDP is income.

        Another thing is that US income does not cover the expense of having to borrow abroad.

        In case of refusal to borrow, the annual US budget loss will be double - from the cessation of receipt of funds for new loans (about 1,25 trillion dollars) and from the allocation of funds to repay old loans (about 600 billion with installments for 25 years).
        1. gladcu2
          gladcu2 29 December 2016 19: 52
          0
          Operator

          Maybe there is no GDP?

          Indeed, in the United States, money has long become a commodity and is formally counted in GDP and the sale of money itself.
          But the economy has already stopped development, since money has not been fulfilling its direct function for a long time - the valuation of goods, labor.

          Or do you believe the media?

          Everything is fine, beautiful marquise ... Everything is fine, everything is fine ...
          1. Operator
            Operator 29 December 2016 20: 14
            0
            GDP is nothing more than the sum of the prices of goods and services sold per year. In this sense, he cannot but be.

            The GDP does not include monetary emissions, the amount of loans and interest on loans, loans, grants, subsidies, etc.
  6. pts-m
    pts-m 28 December 2016 14: 02
    +4
    She is abroad on Mars. In Russia, similar situations with elections are also possible. But as the people say ... the tops have not yet completely become corrupted, and the bottoms have not yet completely gone brown ... but the situation is close to this, looking at the capital and its surrounding from all sides of the province.
    1. Volzhanin
      Volzhanin 29 December 2016 01: 07
      +2
      The tops sprinkled nowhere. But these bastards gotten frosty because they understand that the people of Russia, seeing the picture on the outskirts and remembering 1917 and 1991, are not in a hurry to hassle and even do not want to. But stupid greedy corrupt authorities directly push the people to the next analysis. If these greedy geeks do not stop and re-try, there will be trouble.
    2. user1212
      user1212 29 December 2016 05: 26
      +1
      Quote: PTS-m
      Similar situations with elections are also possible in Russia

      It is not a leader that is needed here, but an idea. Demshiza cannot offer an idea, and within the framework of the existing "idea", the result will not change from the rearrangement of the heads. Demshiza is not popular because of their rabidness and their victory today can only be the result of a coup, followed by a civil war.
      Quote: PTS-m
      the lower classes have not yet become completely obsolete ... but the situation is close to this

      What is this statement based on?
  7. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 28 December 2016 18: 54
    +2
    Well yes. It's like that. Globalization was conceived and implemented as the next big hap. Promptly transfer production to the poorest countries and remove fat through scant wages. So what is next? And then even the grass does not grow. Financiers do not differ in intelligence in general, and strategic thinking ... In order to deftly cheat (namely, financiers do this, in principle, this is their role and their goal), cunning and meanness are needed, and not intelligence at all.
    The only funny thing is that they now hope to reap the benefits, so to speak. With your harvest. Is it okay that the global financial system is, to put it mildly, overstrained? Apparently it somehow passed by the "mind" of these people. Traditionally, they "went into gold" and think that they have covered themselves from problems with an indestructible shield. Here ...
    Gold is a soft and not very practical metal, suitable only for coating electrical contacts. And the storm will be such that the very basics will shake. Including gold. I’m afraid that the Americans caught up late.
  8. basmach
    basmach 28 December 2016 21: 26
    +2
    And you compare oh tsifirki with ours (even official, from Rosstat). Of course we don’t have blacks and Mexicans (we just equated most of the population with them), but the numbers will hardly be better. In our youth, unemployment be healthy, incomes are falling, and the whole country has turned into a rusty belt - just look at closed enterprises in your city and compare with what happened. So what is more logical to ask, Kamo is coming people?
  9. SEER
    SEER 29 December 2016 21: 01
    0
    I would not believe this "Cossack". people for such structures are raised and nurtured almost from the cradle.