Military Review

Project "ZZ". Russia and Turkey: tensions or partnerships?

24
Many Turkish citizens are unhappy with the humanitarian disaster in Aleppo, which extends to Turkey. The killing of the Russian ambassador in Ankara by a self-styled executioner could have been one of the manifestations of such discontent. Experts ask themselves: can Ankara and Moscow agree on the Syrian issue, or will the tensions between the two states remain?


In the last days between Turkey and Russia, despite all the statements of the Turkish government, tensions are rising: after the assassination of Ambassador Andrei Karlov, Moscow will freeze negotiations on the introduction of a visa-free regime for Turkish citizens.

Today is a newspaper "News" reported that Moscow will not cancel the visa regime with Turkey. Negotiations on the introduction of a visa-free regime for Turkish citizens will be frozen, a source in Russian foreign policy circles told the publication.

“Turkey needs to continue serious work to ensure the safety of those arriving in the country and provide guarantees of thorough verification of those who plan to visit Russia. In connection with the recent tragic events, as well as a number of incidents that occurred this year, Moscow is not yet ready to provide visa-free entry for Turkish citizens, ”a source told Izvestia.

“I think that every person who goes to Turkey should seriously think about it before doing this, because the attacks occur almost every day,” says the publication of the statement by the Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov. - The tragedy in Ankara has shown that both politicians and ordinary people can become victims. The world is starting to change. If an act of terrorism had previously occurred, then it was a tragedy for months of discussion. And now there are several of them on the day, it becomes commonplace. This is the worst tragedy. ”

Recall, Andrei Karlov was shot dead in Ankara at the opening of the photo exhibition “Russia through the eyes of the Turks.” The murderer, a young police officer Mevlut Mert Altyntash, was eliminated by the police.

The continuing tension between Russia and Turkey has become one of the leading themes for major Western publications.

Project "ZZ". Russia and Turkey: tensions or partnerships?


В "New York Times" An article by M. Fisher was published in which the author talks about the “new blow” inflicted on relations between Russia and Turkey. Such a blow was the murder of the Russian ambassador.

The murder of Andrei Karlov caused serious concern, the journalist said. We are talking about large-scale consequences that the whole world can feel. Other network activists no wonder "drew a parallel" with the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, who became the threshold of the First World War. However, this does not mean that experts agree with such comparisons.

The publication notes that the shooter who killed Charles in the gallery, shouted slogans about Aleppo. It is assumed that the Syrian events, namely the rapid attack of the Assad troops with the support of Russia, was the reason for the attack.

How can this tragic episode have consequences for Turkey, Russia, Syria and the United States?

According to the analyst, the killing of the ambassador can hardly provoke a conflict between Russia and Turkey. The author finds such a turn of events “extremely unlikely,” since both Ankara and Moscow keep the situation under control and show intentions of cooperation. Moreover, Moscow and Ankara are not looking for enemies "inside." The journalist assumes that the two states "coordinate versions" and shift the blame "on common enemies" from the outside.

The source of constructive negotiations is Syria. It is there that Russia and Turkey are making efforts to harmonize strategies that were previously built on antagonism.

Experts support this view. For example. Aaron Stein, who holds an expert position in the Atlantic Council, is convinced that with regard to the Syrian crisis, Turkey needs Russia, as well as Russia needs Turkey. The murder of a diplomat could cause a crisis in relations between Moscow and Ankara, but the parties are trying to smooth out sharp corners.

Tension nonetheless exists. It is also associated with Syria, and the situation is explosive. The two states have so far been, and today are, on opposite sides: Turkey against Assad, Russia - for Assad. In November 2015, the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian plane, thereby triggering a serious political crisis. Nevertheless, over the past year, relations between the two countries have improved. Turkey and Russia have managed to become partners again. The fact of the matter is that Ankara has narrowed its Syrian strategy, setting as its goal opposition to the groups of Syrian Kurds. The Kurds should not seize territory near the border. And such a strategy reconciled Ankara with Moscow, the author is sure. Probably, the states concluded an agreement: Turkey does not support opposition groups that threaten the interests of Russia, and Russia does not support Syrian Kurds. Mr. Stein puts it this way: Putin and Assad take Aleppo, and the militants connected with Ankara take Al-Bab to their hands.

The author believes that the shots in Ankara will not only not change the positions of Russia and Turkey in Syria, but will even strengthen the partnership ties between the two states.

That is why Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to blame for organizing the assassination of the ambassador of spiritual leader Fethullah Gulen, who lives in the United States.

Andrew finkel in «The Guardian» expresses a slightly different opinion: he is confident that tensions between Russia and Turkey remain.

The assassination of the ambassador is a “provocation”, which is aimed at disrupting negotiations between Russia and Turkey on Syria. This is the opinion of Vladimir Putin. And here is R.T. Erdogan’s assessment: he stated that the attack on Karlov is “an attack on Turkey, the Turkish state and the Turkish people”.

Meanwhile, the author recalls, the 22-year-old Turkish police killer shouted “Allah Akbar!” And called for Aleppo to be remembered. The motive of it, the correspondent believes, was a thirst for revenge. “The self-styled executioner,” the author notes, expressed dissatisfaction with those many Turkish citizens who feel they are “the losing party in the Syrian civil war.”

Finkle reminds that before the assassination in Ankara and Istanbul there were demonstrations, and the entrance to the courtyard of the Russian embassy in Istanbul was surrounded by a “shield” of armored police cars for several days. Most Turks are outraged by a humanitarian catastrophe in the Syrian city of Aleppo, the author writes. Humanitarian disaster spreads across the border, hence the discontent. And it “contradicts” the official opinion, according to which Russia and Turkey will reach a new understanding and resolve the situation in Syria.

Moreover, it will not be easy for Russia to forgive Ankara for its inability to fulfill its responsibilities to ensure the safety of diplomats, the journalist said.

And this is not to mention the main differences in the Syrian war. After all, Erdogan has long supported the Sunni opposition in Syria. True, now Ankara held the "red line", saying. which does not want to give Kurdish fighters the ability to control the border area. In fact, the previous policy of Turkey in Syria has failed. And now Ankara is paying for it with millions of refugees coming to Turkey from Syria.

B. Momani in "Globe and Mail" indicates that Putin and Erdogan will not be enemies after the tragedy in Ankara: their “friendly ties” will stand the test. Now, if the murder of Charles took place in 2015, when a Russian plane was shot down, the world would probably have witnessed a historic moment "akin to the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo", the political outcome of which was world war.

According to the analyst, the press and Russia and Turkey will lay the blame for the murder on supporters of Gulen. Gulen himself controls them from the United States. The purpose of the attack on this version is to disrupt the rapprochement between Moscow and Ankara.

This version, by the way, has already been evaluated at the State Department. The opinion of the provocation perpetrated by Gulen and his supporters was ridiculed by John Kirby. A recording of his briefing just appeared on US State Department website.

The official representative of the State Department was asked what his opinion was about the version put forward by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey about the murder of a Russian diplomat. We are talking about the fact that the Foreign Minister of Turkey, in a telephone conversation with the Secretary of State John Kerry, said directly: Turkey and Russia know that there are "Gulenists" behind the murder of the Russian ambassador.

Mr Kirby declined to officially comment on this telephone conversation, noting that special comments on this matter would be given later. In the meantime, "there is no specifics." However, Kirby noted that the Secretary of State, in a conversation with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, had expressed “concerns about some statements” about “American participation” or “support” of the ambassador’s murder “by tacit consent or otherwise.” According to Kirby, “this is a ludicrous claim” and “an absolutely false” statement, since “there are no grounds for it” behind it.

Regarding the involvement in the murder of the followers of Gülen, Kirby said only that an investigation was underway. Kirby does not know the motives of the killer. Therefore, let the "investigators do their work." Looking for "facts and evidence." However, any speculation about the participation of the United States is "absolutely ridiculous."

Earlier, the US Secretary of State offered Ankara and Moscow assistance in the investigation of the murder of A. Karlov.

* * *


The killing of the ambassador was a test for the partnership between Putin and Erdogan. However, the tragedy may also be the basis for rapprochement, despite the “freezing” of the abolition of the visa regime for Turkish citizens. In the end, the relevant Turkish departments must ensure the safety of diplomats.

The undoubted Islamism of a terrorist who shot at a gallery and commemorated Allah can lead anywhere: from IG (forbidden in the Russian Federation) to Fethullah Gulen living in the USA. Or there may not be any connection between the shooter and any organizations: there are plenty of mad people in the world without it.

«Historical”The points of view on the murder (parallels with 1914) are hardly consistent, since in recent months Russia and Turkey have found many common themes for rapprochement, and against such a background a provocation will remain a provocation. Moreover, Ankara and Moscow are inclined to look for a trail not internal, but external in the crime.

Thus, it is unlikely that the two states will enter a new period of tension in relations.

The opinions expressed by other emotional comrades in the network about the need to break off relations with Turkey, should also be viewed as a provocation. Thin world is better than a good quarrel. Russia is participating in the Syrian war, and to have a new enemy behind it would be the height of short-sightedness.
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 21 December 2016 09: 37
    +4
    The assassination of the Russian ambassador to Ankara by a self-styled executioner could be one of the manifestations of such discontent.


    Behind this "self-proclaimed executioner", there are some organizations of certain countries (countries).
    1. avt
      avt 21 December 2016 10: 56
      +4
      Quote: aszzz888
      Behind this "self-proclaimed executioner", there are some organizations of certain countries (countries).

      Perhaps for today the version of Satanovsky should be worked out as a priority. They could easily load such a “torpedo.” There is no need to dump Gülen either, as well as internal squabbles in the middle of Erdogan Pasha's entourage.
      Quote: Egoza
      And Turkish citizens, who feel sorry for the "opposition" in Syria, need to ask the question: "What did they achieve by killing the ambassador? Wars? Do you want it to be like in Syria?"

      Well, since Erdogan is an ethnic Georgian-laz, it's too late to drink Borjomi. request There is no longer to think, here they really need to work in full and not on
      Quote: Egoza
      Turkey will have to make VERY BIG concessions to Russia on many issues.

      And bow to the GDP, to save Turkey like Lenin in the 20s. They ALREADY brought a civil war to themselves, and with success, until victory, Assad, also brutalized spirits like gasoline into a fire, will take pretty much into this war.
      1. aszzz888
        aszzz888 21 December 2016 11: 12
        +2
        avt
        And bow to the GDP, to save Turkey like Lenin in the 20s. They ALREADY brought a civil war to themselves, and with success, until victory, Assad, also brutalized spirits like gasoline into a fire, will take pretty much into this war.

        And you know, something is not clear that Erdogan will bow. Either the gas price is raised, or the Gazprom shares are nationalized by the state of Turkey. This hover is on his own mind.
        1. avt
          avt 21 December 2016 11: 40
          +2
          Quote: aszzz888
          And you know, something is not clear that Erdogan will bow.

          request Well, literally you don't need to understand that, he really has been rustling lately in Russia in search of some kind of nishtyakov.
          Quote: aszzz888
          This hover is on his own mind.

          Well, like that, yes, he is a schemer, he is fighting for personal power successfully so far. But that's what it does to the country in the end !? In fact, the neo Brilliant port is never danced, but the civil war is already concrete with the Kurds and the end, if there are personnel and weapons in the region, and even if the spirits are crushed in Syria, it will not be seen in the short term for sure, and the results ... .. so let's say - controversial for the fate of Turkey as a state within its current borders.
          1. Talgat
            Talgat 21 December 2016 17: 09
            +2
            Sorry to wedge in - I just wanted to say something that seems obvious to many

            1. Turkey and Iran are geopolitical enemies (as well as Eurasia and Turkey - at least according to Gumilev Mackinder Mahan, etc.)

            2. No one wants a big war and blood - Iran and Russia and Turkey will try to come to an agreement (especially since Turkey will not be taken to Europe)

            3. Many Turks are really angry with Russia and Iran - the bombing and pressure of Turkoman (it sounds almost like Turkmens) - this is probably what caused the events. In Iran, anti-Turkish sentiments - there are not far from the war - do we need it? And in Russia, by the way, is the same as in Iran.

            4. Russia and Turkey need to get closer - that’s why they are blaming the USA on Gushlen - which is right - whether he is guilty or not - but on a scale of a century - let him be better guilty - than innocent people die further
            1. Talgat
              Talgat 21 December 2016 17: 14
              0
              and here’s the confirmation - at the same time, our role should not be overestimated - the KZ is just using us as a platform - since in reality we have the CSTO with the Russian Federation and the common air defense and the Eurasian Union, and so on - but with Turkey everything is in words - like similar languages ​​and sympathy - but still, as a short-circuit bridge can serve

              http://today.kz/news/kazahstan/2016-12-18/732063-
              nursultan-nazarbaev-podderzhal-provedenie-peregov
              orov-po-sirii-v-astane /

              Russian and Turkish leaders expressed interest in holding peace talks in Syria between the conflicting parties in Astana.

              Nursultan Nazarbayev supported this initiative and announced his readiness to provide a platform for such negotiations in the Kazakh capital.
            2. avt
              avt 21 December 2016 17: 17
              +1
              Quote: Talgat
              Russia and Turkey need to get closer

              Let’s put the chickpea, taking into account the current situation, it is necessary for Turkey to get closer. Moreover, if you look at the maps yes-a-avno published by the USA on the new cutting of borders in the region, then Turkey was really cut off there, but Iran ... was not touched! bully Although there are enough interethnic mobs there, they crush without sentimentality. Turkey is generally put on the brink of survival by the US, as during the First World War it was cut off by the Entente, in fact, destroying the Sublime port, turning it into Turkey. If it were not for the interests of the Bolsheviks ... there would not have been at all.
            3. Rolex
              Rolex 21 December 2016 19: 45
              0
              1) Iran is not entirely critical with Turkey. Iran is interested in Saudi and Qatar!
              2) Turkey is not taken to the EU, sanctions have not been completely lifted from Iran, the Russian Federation in general is like a stone on the head of the West. So all three have a common interest.
              3) Turks don't care about Turkomens .... it's just recently become fashionable to remember Turkomens. For some reason, when at the beginning they were exterminated, Turkey did not even react. As they say in politics, there is no morality!
              4) Gulian-Baba Yaga for Erdogan, but ...... but Erdogan is not enough to go to the assassination of the Russian ambassador.
    2. vovanpain
      vovanpain 21 December 2016 11: 32
      +8
      Russia is participating in the Syrian war, and it would be the height of short-sightedness to have a new enemy behind its back.

      Bravo Oleg good Checkers, maybe it's time to turn on your head? Of course, you can't trust Erdogan, but you can also wave your checkers to the top of stupidity. Obama with sixes applaud while standing. yes
  2. volodya
    volodya 21 December 2016 09: 44
    +2
    An intense partnership!
  3. Egoza
    Egoza 21 December 2016 10: 14
    +1
    Turkey will have to make VERY BIG concessions to Russia on many issues. And Turkish citizens, who feel sorry for the "opposition" in Syria, need to ask the question: "What did they achieve by killing the ambassador? Wars? Do you want it to be like in Syria?"
  4. Uncle Murzik
    Uncle Murzik 21 December 2016 10: 15
    +3
    with such partners and enemies are not necessary! For more than ten years, the Turkish authorities did not allow Russian diplomats in this country to be guarded by a special detachment "Zaslon" (the 7th department of the Center for Internal Security of the Foreign Intelligence Service). Its main task is to ensure the security of embassy staff, the Zaslon fighters work in many countries of the world. These are well-trained and armed fighters who not only carry out physical protection, but also have operational skills. Only after the public assassination of Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov, the Turkish side hastily returned to discussing the possibility of the arrival of the "Barrier" fighters to ensure the safety of our diplomats ... http://novorusmir.ru/archives/19755
    1. Boris55
      Boris55 21 December 2016 10: 18
      0
      Quote: Uncle Murzik
      ... with such partners and enemies is not necessary ...

      You do not see the difference in the behavior of Erdagan when our plane was shot down and now that our ambassador was killed?
      1. Uncle Murzik
        Uncle Murzik 21 December 2016 10: 33
        +1
        Boris55 while I see that the Turks are killing our citizens, read the exile! If the Turks did not put a spoke in the wheel with the guards, the ambassador could live! hi
      2. Lelek
        Lelek 21 December 2016 11: 01
        +5
        Quote: Boris55
        You do not see the difference in the behavior of Erdagan when our plane was shot down and now that our ambassador was killed?


        The Turks are a geopolitical opponent of Russia, an insidious opponent, and not taking this into account means losing somewhere in something. I’m not saying that we have to rattle our weapons and meet with hostility the rapprochement of countries, but the powder must be kept dry. Erdogan is a talented actor. Take, for example, the fact that he called Putin his best friend, while at the UN his permanent representative supported the resolution on qualifying Russia as an "aggressor country." In general, the "kowtow" of a Turk should be taken with caution and, just in case, keep your fist clenched. yes
        1. aszzz888
          aszzz888 21 December 2016 11: 14
          +2
          Lelek
          In general, the "kowtow" of a Turk should be taken with caution and, just in case, keep your fist clenched


          Precisely, and right in front of Erdogan's nose.
          1. Lelek
            Lelek 21 December 2016 11: 53
            0
            Quote: aszzz888
            Precisely, and right in front of Erdogan's nose.


            Well, why - in front of your nose, hold it so that you can see that the armored train is under steam. yes
  5. Wolka
    Wolka 21 December 2016 11: 51
    +1
    you can't believe the Turks under any circumstances, the Turks are unpredictable, politically hanging out like shit in the hole ...
  6. iouris
    iouris 21 December 2016 12: 11
    +1
    The assassination of an ambassador is always a sign of barbarism, a political provocation, a failure of the special services and a consequence of saving on the ambassador's security and protective measures in Turkey. We cannot discount the very specific methodology of Erdogan, who did not refuse to achieve those tasks that in principle contradict the tasks of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation.
  7. Rolex
    Rolex 21 December 2016 13: 30
    +1
    It's not news that Erdogan is a bastard, but in this incident, Turkey is the last country to want this blatant assassination. Business of another office .... and you yourself perfectly understand who. And all this against the background of the meeting between the Russian Federation, Iran and Turkey, the retreat of ISIS, etc. Hmm ..... isn't it weird ?!

    Kingdom of heaven to the ambassador!
  8. mgero
    mgero 21 December 2016 14: 07
    0
    if the civilian wine goes to turkey it will be fine, and the race should quietly contribute to this.
    1. Rolex
      Rolex 21 December 2016 14: 57
      0
      Why, O Armenian offender? You are accustomed to using the hands of strangers, in this case Russia, to muddy the water and catch a rotten fish in troubled water, to help incite hatred, etc. But you won't wait! You will dissolve in your own bile! It is a pity for adequate, sane Armenians, it is a pity that among them there are representatives of the fauna, like you, below the plinth!
      And yet, you better worry about the civil war in your own Armenia, where they eat Russian bread and spit in the direction of Russia.
      For this, I say goodbye to you in the hope that you will no longer stink!
      1. mgero
        mgero 21 December 2016 15: 21
        0
        another rotten Caspian Turk, all the atrocities are sitting on your advice and it is impossible to forget it. justice will prevail,
        and we do not care, we are sailing only on you to the Caspian (Azerbaijan) Turks, and of course to Turkey.
        1. Rolex
          Rolex 21 December 2016 19: 34
          0
          ........ wrote imbecil with a single gyrus which is from a thong! And now I hit the drain .... so get lost!