Military Review

"New Deal" instead of "New Normal"

35
In his annual Address, President Vladimir Putin referred to the experience of recent economic success related to the development of the agro-industrial and defense-industrial complexes. With all the differences between the AIC and the DIC, both sectors of the economy in recent years have become zones of active industrial policy of the state.


Support for sales and investments in fixed assets, subsidized loans, large-scale government orders, restriction of imports to protect the domestic market - the use of these and similar measures has always met with resistance from the liberal economic community in the government and the expert environment. Nonetheless, it was they who ensured growth rates that were significantly higher than the average for the economy, launching the process of rebuilding (and somewhere creating from scratch) entire industries, and increasing export potential. And all this under rather difficult starting conditions - the general imperfection of our institutions and the unenviable initial condition of the sectors themselves.

If the agro-industrial complex was considered to be the most problematic area of ​​government in the Soviet period, the defense-industrial complex became such later. Therefore, the position of the “defense” vice-premier, which Dmitry Rogozin came to five years ago, was not called “shooting” unless due to the inconsistency of this epithet of the well-known humanity of the political mores of modern Russia.

Let us recall the main characteristics of the political situation that has developed around the military-industrial complex as of 2011 year.

Turned into a tradition of disruption of the HPV and GOZ. The first two post-Soviet state weapons programs (up to 2005 and up to 2010) were almost completely failed.

The outlined transition to import of VVST is no longer elements and components, but final products. Deals on Mistrals, Iveco armored personnel carriers, Austrian sniper arms, Israeli drones looked like trial balls of a new model of customer and contractor relations, when the buyer, feeling himself a welcome guest in the global arms supermarket, was already preparing to disclaim responsibility for the future of Russian industry.

Expectations of a landslide reduction in arms exports due to a reduction in available MTC markets (as the largest buyers - China and India - switch to their own or at best joint projects), the Soviet Union’s obsolescence, problems with financial and credit support of transactions and after-sales service.

Chronic price and financial conflicts between the customer and the contractor, paralyzing the performance of the state defense order not only at the contracting stage, but also at all stages of execution. Their resolution, as we remember, was often transferred to a higher political level.

"New Deal" instead of "New Normal"


To the above, it is worth adding the well-known structural imbalances in the defense industry that have accumulated throughout the post-Soviet period: outdated fixed assets and oversized assets, personnel aging and washing out of qualified personnel, low or negative profitability, loss of a number of previously mastered technologies, gaps in the lower levels of cooperation, etc. It is not surprising that at the time of the launch of the LG-2011 – 2020 there was a widespread belief that the industry simply could not cope with the sharply increased, mobilization the essence of the state order. This was one of the main Kudrinsky arguments against increasing defense spending.

From the height of 2016, we can say that the worst fears were not confirmed. It is enough to compare the volume of industrial production of industrial complex in the 2011-m with the expected data for 2016-m. Increase - in 2,6 times. And the matter is not only in the increased state defense order, but also in increasing exports. According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), published in 2016, "Russian arms exports have increased by 28 percent over the past five years compared to the previous five year period."

As for the state defense order itself, the key point was that the industry was able to meet the increase in the volume of execution discipline. In financially successful 2011, performance of the GOZ on 80 percent was perceived as a great success. In 2014, the GOZ was performed on 95 percent, in 2015, on 97 percent. The data on 2016 is not provided yet, but at the end of September at the Military-Industrial Conference in St. Petersburg, representatives of the Ministry of Defense talked about a certain excess of the schedule for the implementation of the state defense order compared to the same period last year. No less important, as the president noted in his Address, that the increase in volumes is accompanied by a significant increase in labor productivity (expected by the end of 2016 of the year - 9,8 percent).

These achievements became possible not only due to the notorious “manual mode” of control, but also as a result of solving a number of system problems in the military-industrial complex. Of course, the decision in this case does not mean the final result, but rather - a process with positive dynamics in each of the most complex areas. We list some of them.

Contracting system

The contradictions in this area, which were mentioned above, were largely dictated by the imperfection of the legislative framework. An important step in its reform was the adoption in December of the 2012 federal law “On State Defense Order”. He made the contracting system more flexible - allowing different pricing models; more complex - focused on the entire procurement cycle, including planning, placement, execution of the contract; more balanced in terms of regulation of minimum and maximum profitability. In many ways, precisely because of this, the discipline of the execution of the GOZ has been strengthened.

After the adoption of the law, the share of long-term contracts in the GOZ (2012 year - 33 percent, 2013 year - already 48 percent) significantly increased, which is very important from the point of view of economy of scale, investment planning, reduction of the cost of borrowed funds.

The next wave of reforming the rules of contracting was intended to increase the financial discipline of the state defense contractor. Since September 1, the package of amendments developed by the Department of Defense has come into force. The new requirements tightened the rules for banking support for the state defense order (separate accounts for each contract, stringent requirements for spending money, a limited number of authorized banks) and were very wary of industry representatives. Conversations about the inevitable disruption of the state defense order sounded on their part, albeit informally, but very insistently. Some of the new rules really looked ill-conceived. However, after a year and a half it can be fixed that in this case the worst fears did not come true. Largely due to the work on the mutual adaptation of the new requirements of the law and the realities of the defense industry, which was conducted during these one and a half years by the board of the Military Industrial Commission and the Ministry of Defense (at the moment the output is already the second package of corrective amendments designed to make the new rules of the game more thoughtful and executable).

Disputes over the new regime of banking support for the state defense order continue. However, an important result is already evident today: this regime qualitatively raises the level of state awareness of what is happening in the GOZ system, and allows at least partly to control the increase in costs. But it is important that in itself it does not create market incentives to reduce them.

Therefore, today the key issue in terms of increasing the cost-effectiveness of the state defense order is the pricing system. In its current form, it stimulates enterprises to overestimate costs. Increased costs in the application of a fixed standard of profitability allows the company to increase profits in absolute terms. And vice versa, cost reduction is unprofitable, since in subsequent periods all savings are withdrawn by the customer. Methods of rationing costs fails even in Soviet times. In modern conditions, the number of unreadable "variables" is incomparably higher.

It is clear that, due to the objective features of the defense sector as a quasi-market sector, it is quite difficult to find an alternative to pricing according to the “cost plus” principle. However, it is possible and necessary to look for options for its adjustment. Dmitry Rogozin set such a task at the Military-Industrial Conference at the end of September of this year, and today the relevant proposals are already being considered by the MIC board.

Industry retooling

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade for 2012, the share of obsolete equipment (over 20 years old) in the machine park exceeded 65 percent. To solve this problem, the government approved five state programs related to the development of electronic and electronic, aviation, rocket and space industry, shipbuilding, nuclear power complex. The main role in the technical re-equipment was played by the federal target program “Development of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation for 2011–2020”. Many enterprises were indeed provided with modern technological equipment (until 2020, the scale of updating will be about 100 thousand units). In this regard, however, two related problems are worth noting.

First, direct subsidies for the modernization of production are not the best solution from the point of view of the system of incentives for the leaders of the defense industrial complex. What the state pays directly is not always adequately evaluated and calculated in terms of efficiency. Carrying out technical re-equipment of enterprises through the Federal Target Program was a necessary, but forced solution in the situation of accumulated depreciation of funds and low real profitability of companies. In the future, the main center of gravity in solving this problem should be transferred to the maximum consideration of the investment component in contracts. In his electoral article 2012 of the year “To be strong: guarantees of national security for Russia”, Vladimir Putin noted that “the purchase price ... must be ... sufficient not only for the recoupment of enterprises, but also for investments in their development and modernization.” At the time of writing this article, it sounded like a task for growth for the same pricing system, and now, when it has been worked out, and the relationship between the customer and the contractor has been normalized, a quite suitable moment is coming for the decision.

Secondly, one can only regret that the rather large-scale program of support for the technical re-equipment of the military-industrial complex was not coordinated from the very beginning with the task of re-creating the domestic machine-tool industry. At the very least, “it was necessary to choose several serious strategic partners, and the condition for the purchase of machines was to be their deep localization”. These are the words of Dmitry Rogozin on the Technoprom-2015 forum. This position has been expressed to them before, but, in all likelihood, did not become consensus in the government. This is one of the examples of discordance between the strategies for the development of the military and civilian industries (and in general, of different sectors of the economy), which is important to overcome if we seriously set ourselves the task of re-industrialization.

Import substitution

Under this hackneyed term recently applied to the DIC hides four quite different topics.

The first is the restriction of imports of final military products. As already mentioned, as of the beginning of the decade, there was a serious tendency to lobby for such imports. And with all the counterarguments, there was a high probability of following this path. Just because it is the path of least resistance. In addition, it is beneficial for many in terms of dropping responsibility for the development of problem industrial assets, and for business intermediaries. Before my eyes was an example of India, where import activity, despite all the talk about the priority of the local military-industrial complex, gained momentum because of the many intermediary lobbyists. There was a temptation to go the Indian way. Fortunately, thanks to the political position of the president of the country, the head of the military industrial complex, the new defense minister, this temptation was avoided.

The second topic is the replacement of sanction imported components in military products. The government has adopted an import substitution program, detailed “road maps” have been formed for a number of positions. According to official statements for the 2014 year, the task of mastering the entire range of components and components for the production of armaments and military equipment was to receive a solution within three to five years.

In the case of products supplied by Ukrainian enterprises, complete import substitution is a matter of time. Before the crisis, the Klimov plant mastered the production of helicopter engines supplied by Motor Sich, the only thing is to increase serial production. NPO Saturn was identified as the parent company for the production of gas turbine engines for fleetwhose monopolistic supplier the Nikolaev enterprise "Zorya-Mashproekt" earlier acted. According to the vice president of USC Igor Ponomarev (in May 2016), while all work is being carried out according to the schedule agreed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Defense and USC, the first prototype GTU is planned to be placed on a test bench in 2017, serial delivery to ships under construction of project 22350 may begin at the end of that year. By the way, no less urgent task was the development of repair of the Nikolaev gas turbine installations, which are equipped with many ships of our fleet.

As for the Western or East Asian elemental base (its share in some samples of the HEAT is of the order of 65 percent), here most often it is about replacing one import with another. To achieve a more acceptable result in this area, long-term and systemic solutions are needed. Industries such as microelectronics, on the one hand, are strategically important for the defense industry, but on the other, they can pay off only with the widest coverage of civilian markets.

This makes relevant the third dimension of the problem of import substitution: the development of basic industries that are of fundamental importance to both civil and military industries. In the machine tool industry, microelectronics, electronics, photonics, there are a number of programs of different levels, but much more intensive and complex efforts of the state are needed for these industries to be restored, and somewhere created anew. The basis of such efforts is the formation of an “anchor” domestic market for each of the positions. Often - an artificial "design" of such a market. As an example, Dmitry Rogozin at a recent congress of the Union of Mechanical Engineers referred to possible solutions in microelectronics: “If we today transfer passports, identity cards, various documents, goods to use national chips, then due to this huge order for simple civilian products, we will lower the cost price ... to create its own special purpose electronic component base. ”

Finally, the fourth aspect of import substitution is winning back the domestic civilian market by domestic engineering and, above all, by defense companies. Recently, much has been said about the unnatural situation in which 80 percent of the Russian civil aviation market belongs to the Boeing-Airbus duopoly, when large-scale shipbuilding contracts, without any localization requirements, lock themselves off to foreign shipyards when power-engineering orders go abroad again and again, despite all sanctions risks and the availability of relevant competences of Russian companies.

It must be admitted that in those sectors that directly border the military-industrial complex — civil aviation, shipbuilding, and rocket and space technology — great efforts have been made to recreate the industrial potential. Projects developed as early as 80, but still able to occupy positions in the relevant niches today (IL-96 in cargo and passenger versions, IL-114), are revived, although with great difficulty, the projects of the two thousandths are pulled out, albeit with great difficulty. (Sukhoi Superjet, Angara family of rockets), new ones are being implemented (MS-21, PD-14 engine), fixed assets for promising industries are being built (construction of the Zvezda shipyard, which will specialize in large-scale shipbuilding).

In the Address to the Federal Assembly 2016 of the Year, the President named among such markets adjacent to the defense industry the production of civilian products for medicine and energy. Indeed, defense companies are capable of playing a leading role in a number of positions. Again, subject to the purposeful formation of an “anchor” market, a consolidated civil order, open to defense enterprises (at the initiative of the military-industrial complex board, such a mechanism is already being formed today for the supply of medical equipment).

Personnel issue

Personnel hunger in the defense industry involves all levels of the division of labor, from skilled workers to designers and directors of enterprises. And different levels of training - from vocational guidance in school to complementary education of accomplished specialists. The military-industrial commission initiated certain solutions around the perimeter of these problems. Among them:

development of a new state training plan for the five-year period, taking into account the real needs of the defense industry organizations;
development of contractual relations “university-student-enterprise”, providing for the transition from targeted recruitment to targeted training, strengthening the role of the employer in the process of preparing specialists;
restoration of the system of additional vocational education, which allows up to 2020 of the year to carry out retraining and improve the skills of about 200 thousands of engineering and technical personnel of the military-industrial complex;
development of internal corporate training programs and corporate universities (they begin to play a major role in the training of personnel in working specialties);
social policy measures (increasing income levels, housing support) at the enterprises themselves.


The latter is especially important, since the weakest link in the personnel chain remains the link between the educational institution and the defense industry enterprise, as well as everything that the personnel managers of enterprises call the official term “consolidation”. Simply put, graduates of engineering faculties do not come to defense companies or do not linger on them. It is important that in this direction, associated with the motivation of employees, a lot has been done in recent years. In particular, mechanisms have been created to support cooperatives from OPK workers (free of charge to receive a plot for building and infrastructure) and to implement corporate housing programs. Today, a number of companies are implementing such programs in the interests of employees, including both preferential purchase arrangements and long-term lease options. The average salary in the defense industry has grown quite substantially. In 2011, it was 24 530 rubles, in 2016 (according to the expected results) 45 551 rubles (in the whole country the growth is noticeably lower - from 23 369 to 36 200 rubles).

The average age of OPK employees has dropped from 45,9 to 45 years. The improvement is not so significant, but a few years ago the “defense industry” was predicted by demographic failure: the core of experienced specialists is aging, the middle generation is extremely small, the new one is not in a hurry to change.

In short, in this case, too, despite the most alarming forecasts, the worst was avoided: both the statistics and the experience of observing enterprises suggest that the change nevertheless arrived, the defense industry has become younger in recent years and the average 45 years in practice do not mean the prevalence middle-aged specialists, and the industrial alliance of "grandfathers" and "grandchildren."

However, there is another component of the personnel problem. It is not only a shortage of specialists of certain categories, but also a negative selection, which also begins at school. Of course, this is not a general rule, but an alarming trend: engineering students usually go for not the best applicants, in the pool of target recruitment in the interests of the military-industrial complex are not the best students, not the best graduates come to work for enterprises and they are not always the strongest from comers

But the engineering elite, if we want to have a technological future, cannot be second-rate, consist of those who could not make it into financiers, lawyers or security officials. For a long time, this “second-rate” was programmed by the system itself of corporate hierarchies in industry. At the Council of General Designers and Representatives of the Academy of Sciences, which was held in 2013, Dmitry Rogozin shared his observation on a visit to one of the large corporations: carriers of design competencies in it at the third and fourth levels of the corporate hierarchy. If the “ceiling” for the best representatives of the profession is set so low, by definition, it will not attract ambitious and talented youth to it.

The desire to change this state of affairs, to shift the balance of power in favor of the technocratic elite, has become one of the clear priorities of Dmitry Rogozin as a “defense” deputy prime minister. Important steps in this direction are raising the status of the chief or general designer at the enterprise (their assignment to the military industrial complex / college of the military industrial complex, the rule of “two keys”, suggesting that the expenditure of funds for technical issues occurs only through two signatures - the general director and the main / general designer), the formation of the institute of general designers for complex weapons systems, and then - the institute of general technologists, leaders of the priority technological areas of the defense industry.

Of course, this is not enough to raise the prestige of the engineering profession to a new level - systemic changes in the economy and society are needed here. But it is obvious that such changes should start from the top level of the social pyramid.

Coordination and planning

In recent years, much has been said about the lack of interdepartmental and inter-sectoral coordination in industrial-technological policy, which makes the latter ineffective and uneconomical. Within the “defense” sector, this lack of coordination is gradually being managed to fill as the status of the Military Industrial Commission is strengthened and sectoral and inter-sectoral instruments are created under its auspices.

In 2012, the commission received the functions of an arbitrator in the event of a price dispute between the DIC and the Ministry of Defense. In 2014, the MIC was headed personally by the President of the Russian Federation. This decision made possible operational working coordination between the civilian, industrial wing of the commission and its power wing, which was always accountable directly to the president.

In the same series (the creation of working coordination mechanisms) stand the already mentioned decisions on general designers and technological managers. At the head of specialized scientific organizations and scientific and technical councils, they will be responsible for the targeting and mutual coordination of research and development in their respective fields, that is, to serve as a kind of system integrator of technological policy.

In one of the so-called May presidential decrees, the ambitious task of creating a qualitatively new system of analysis and strategic planning was put, which would link the state's scientific, technical and industrial policy, military construction with an assessment of the challenges and threats to national security for the long term. And the board of the military-industrial complex returned to the Soviet practice of developing fifteen-year "Basic Directions for the Development of Weapons and Equipment", which should serve as a basis for the development of the State weapons programs for a ten-year period. In particular, the “Main directions of development of weapons and military and special equipment for the period up to 2030 of the year” were approved, in which a list of samples defining the appearance of promising weapon systems was formed. Some of the priorities laid down in the strategic planning documents were reflected by Dmitry Rogozin in a speech in the State Duma. Among them:

automated control system of the Armed Forces;
automated battlefield control system;
visualization of the battlefield;
robotics;
reduction of types of weapons, military and special equipment;
modularity;
inter-clan unification and creation of inter-medium devices;
electronic component base;
transition to full life cycle contracts.


Such accents make it possible to expect that the issues of control, interaction, intelligence, information confrontation and, in general, the construction of modern network-centric systems will occupy a worthy place in the State Armaments Program until 2025 of the year.

However, the HPV-2025 itself still remains unaccepted. At the beginning of 2015, there were reports in the media about the postponement of the start of the next State Weapon Program from 2016 to 2018. The reason, in all likelihood, is that as the planning system in the military and military-industrial field is adjusted, the question of the instability of forecasts and plans of a macroeconomic nature is only more acute. Simply put, the caravan moves at the speed of the slowest camel. And state strategic planning should be comprehensive. Otherwise, we can assume that it does not exist at all.

Development policy

Of course, there are much more similar areas in which the bottlenecks were solved and at the same time problems for the future were solved. A separate discussion is required for the problems of asset restructuring, financial recovery and credit support to companies, optimization of the mobilization potential of the defense industry. I dwelt on only a few of the most obvious public priorities of the past "defense five-year plan." This is enough to see what phase of the process we are in.

At the aforementioned Military-Industrial Conference in St. Petersburg, the chairman of the military industrial complex’s collegium defined this phase as a transition from mobilization (and somewhere, I’ll add the “fire brigade” regime) to development policy: “Over the past few years, the MIC has proven its the ability to provide large-scale rearmament of the army and navy against the background of maintaining high positions in the export of VVST. We managed to mobilize the existing potential, and somewhere and restore the lost. Now the companies and branches of the defense industry are facing a higher level. We need to go from mobilization to sustainable development - to ensure its effectiveness over the long distance, the ability to respond flexibly to environmental challenges and change it in our own interests. ”

In the same speech, there was also a list of the main challenges that our development policy should “build up”. I think they were focused rather accurately.

First, it is a challenge to a new technological policy. The Soviet scientific and technical reserve in the weapons field is virtually exhausted. A new HPV should be primarily innovative, focused on the creation of qualitatively new IWT platforms. But it is much more difficult to control and program the sphere of research and development in terms of terms, costs, effectiveness, than mass production. Especially in our conditions, when the non-addressing and conceptual irresponsibility of R & D managed to become the norm.

Secondly, it is a challenge to corporate competitiveness, the quality of the corporate environment. As rightly noted in the UAC strategy prior to 2025, “it is not products that compete in the global market, but effective corporations by means of all their competencies and resources”. In addition to product performance and price, competitiveness factors include a stable financial position, transparent management, a developed supplier “ecosystem”, business reputation, a certified production system, a global service network, the availability of financial instruments (export credits, leasing), etc. the combination of these factors, the competitiveness of Russian defense companies is very limited.

Third, it is a challenge to the development of civilian markets for end products. There are more than enough skeptics who say: if you have an available market for less (conditionally) 500 of millions of consumers, then you should not even try to play in an industrial power. The domestic market is too narrow, and the external is hopelessly busy. As a rule, such conversations are arranged by arguments about “new normality” and “post-industrial future.” However, it is new technological trends that call into question this logic. In a number of industries, the new industrial revolution may reduce the return on technology and goods. In other words, the knowledge-intensive products of the new generation will be profitable in smaller markets, and the concept of global factories will gradually become a thing of the past. This is precisely the structural prerequisites of that turn towards re-industrialization and the protection of the domestic market, the beginning of which we are seeing in the West.

Therefore, it is time for speech leaders of our first persons to stop accompanying the findings of the new coming of protectionism with a “unfortunately” turn. This is a new reality, political and technological, overturning the dogmas of the Washington Consensus.

And here I come back to where I started from — measures of stimulating industrial policy can have an effect even in the conditions of our imperfect institutions, if they are consistently implemented for at least several years. By applying these approaches to other industries, we may well gain a “new course” instead of a “new normality”.
Author:
Originator:
http://vpk-news.ru/articles/34358
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  1. Teberii
    Teberii 25 December 2016 06: 06
    +7
    But as our government can be believed, Medvedev assures that he will continue to support agriculture. And he himself raises excise taxes on diesel fuel. And this applies to all areas.
  2. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 25 December 2016 06: 37
    +5
    I would like to ask the author - why is it still not in the government?
    1. Lopatov
      Lopatov 25 December 2016 10: 49
      +8
      Such people are not taken as astronauts. "In order not to confuse the authorities with their understanding" (c)
      1. rotmistr60
        rotmistr60 25 December 2016 11: 04
        +3
        with your mind

        You said it well. +
  3. Homo
    Homo 25 December 2016 06: 55
    0
    Another cry from the heart, "the boss is all gone"?
  4. aszzz888
    aszzz888 25 December 2016 07: 36
    +3
    Powerful article. The whole report came out +.
  5. Sergey S.
    Sergey S. 25 December 2016 08: 39
    +3
    Therefore, it is time for speech leaders of our first persons to stop accompanying the findings of the new coming of protectionism with a “unfortunately” turn. This is a new reality, political and technological, overturning the dogmas of the Washington Consensus.

    Fresh tradition ...
    I read the article, and did not understand what ...
    The priorities were especially surprised .... they lack the most painful points. Engines for ships, for example ...
    "Life type contracts" - sounds very nice, but in practice is this another justification for the rise in prices due to additional paper for each product?
    automated control system of the Armed Forces;
    automated battlefield control system;
    visualization of the battlefield; ...

    Is it a simulation or pushing an officer inside a virtual gadget?
    And what are the terms!
    Armed Forces automated control system
    Is our Sun a mechanism or a qualified community? Now generals and admirals, as well as all other officers, are someone dreaming of managing automated?

    The article is terrible.
    Written by the manager. if not according to the law, then according to the mind.
    Terms are mentioned. but the essence is not visible.

    It seems that this is part of the report substantiating the gigantic spending of folk money ...
    1. Lopatov
      Lopatov 25 December 2016 10: 39
      +4
      Quote: Sergey S.
      Is our Sun a mechanism or a qualified community?

      Our aircraft is a mechanism. At least they should be. From reconnaissance to rear. So that the infantry machine gunners do not shoot super-deficient "Sniper" because they have not brought others. (real case)

      Quote: Sergey S.
      Is it a simulation or pushing an officer inside a virtual gadget?
      And what are the terms!

      This is an increase in combat effectiveness at times. Even with existing obsolete weapons.

      A small example: determining the possibility of firing artillery at targets in the mountains or settlements, choosing the optimal trajectory. In the presence of an electronic three-dimensional map of the area, complex and very approximate calculations will turn into the exact version issued per second. And so in almost all areas

      Therefore, automation of control and virtualization of the battlefield is an order of magnitude more important than
      Quote: Sergey S.
      the most painful points. Engines for ships, for example ...
      1. Sergey S.
        Sergey S. 25 December 2016 11: 33
        0
        Quote: Spade
        Therefore, automation of control and virtualization of the battlefield is an order of magnitude more important than ...

        The issue of management illiteracy.
        Automation is applied to mechanisms, systems ...
        Automation involves the creation of products that do not need continuous regulation of individual processes, and have built-in means of working out teams in variable situations. But all decisions built into automatic systems are made at the stage of system design.

        This should not be about automation, which was really decided in the 1960s, for example, when creating space technology and nuclear power plants, but about information support and variational-simulation modeling of the situation in the conditions of the battlefield, - expanding the horizons of information for commanders units.

        As for
        Quote: Spade
        ... an order of magnitude more important than
        Quote: Sergey S.
        the most painful points. Engines for ships, for example ...

        read carefully. The list of important ones includes:
        robotics;
        modularity;
        electronic component base;
        transition to full life cycle contracts.

        ... but no engines.
        It just means that there will be nowhere to introduce the electronic component base, there is nothing to master modularity, we will implement the transition to full life cycle contracts mainly on small arms ...

        Neglecting energy security is about the same as neglecting food ...
        And don't forget, the Motor War is not over yet ...
        Once the Kirov plant, and not only it, belonged to the Moscow Region ...
        1. Lopatov
          Lopatov 25 December 2016 12: 19
          +2
          Quote: Sergey S.
          The issue of management illiteracy.
          Automation is applied to mechanisms, systems ...

          Marshal Ogarkov "an illiterate manager"?

          After all, he was the first in our country to raise with a rib the question of automation of command and control. Moreover, on the scale of the Warsaw Pact army deployed over the war, and not microscopic against this background, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

          Quote: Sergey S.
          But all decisions built into automatic systems are made at the stage of system design.

          Oh oh Do you fundamentally deny the possibility of automatic feedback systems?

          Quote: Sergey S.
          This should not be about automation, which was really decided in the 1960s, for example, when creating space technology and nuclear power plants, but about information support and variational-simulation modeling of the situation in the conditions of the battlefield, - expanding the horizons of information for commanders units.

          Take artillery, for example. Everything is built on higher mathematics. First of all, Probability and Game Theory. And the artillerymen must first of all automate the sea of ​​the same type of calculations, in which they are now drowning. And purposefully very, very "coarse" in order to increase productivity

          Quote: Sergey S.
          It just means that there will be nowhere to introduce the electronic component base, there is nothing to master modularity, we will implement the transition to full life cycle contracts mainly on small arms ...

          Give me a perfect electronic component base, a group of good programmers and unlimited funding, and I will bring the Kulatsky Sawed-Off M-122 30-mm howitzer, model 1938, to the level of the best modern artillery models in terms of firing accuracy with conventional ammunition and opening fire on received unplanned target on the march. It will only lose at the maximum firing range.

          These are the pies ... Now electronics is much more important than motors.
      2. basmach
        basmach 25 December 2016 17: 07
        0
        You probably never had anything to do with automation (and the word is beautiful). Your example is just an advanced ballistic computer,
        "Automation of a technological process is a set of methods and means intended for the implementation of a system or systems that make it possible to control the technological process itself without the direct participation of a person, or leaving a person the right to make the most responsible decisions.
        As a rule, as a result of the automation of the technological process, an ACS is created. "However, any ACS engineer will tell you that the more complex the ACS (and its software), the more glitches it has. (Believe me, you constantly have to face it). And in battle the infantryman has no time to look at the pictures, otherwise you will quickly find yourself in a different reality.
        1. Lopatov
          Lopatov 25 December 2016 17: 33
          0
          Quote: basmach
          You probably never had anything to do with automation (and the word is beautiful). Your example is just an advanced ballistic computer,

          And can a ballistic computer automatically apply to a virtual map targets discovered by its own and other means of reconnaissance? Apply non-shooting spaces to each art. units, and in the future, for each gun / installation? Map the boundaries of safe distance from their units, and real, and not once and for all established by the Combat Charter? Consider a really necessary expense for the target?
          To control the movement of guns / installations after short fire raids to prevent their destruction in counter-battery? Carry out replenishment of a transportable missile launcher with a limited number of loading machines (game theory)
          And this is not even 10% of what is needed in the preparation and conduct of hostilities ... I remember that we planned the engineering equipment for the fire, main and spare on healthy such "sheets" ... A modern computer, using the appropriate mat. the apparatus would do it in seconds, and the calculation of forces and means would be optimal. I do not speak for astronomy ... that kind of thing ...

          Quote: basmach
          "Automation of a technological process is a set of methods and means intended for the implementation of a system or systems that make it possible to control the technological process itself without the direct participation of a person, or leaving a person the right to make the most responsible decisions.

          Well ... A person from the information provided to him by the automated control system makes a conclusion about the order of hitting targets, and the expense allocated for this. Everything else is done by ACS. A person can intervene in the event of force majeure, for example, a new important goal. The system should integrate it into the scenario of fire destruction.

          Quote: basmach
          However, any ACS engineer will tell you that the more complex the ACS (and its software), the more glitches there are. (Believe me, you constantly have to face it).

          And therefore, this system should appear in the troops right now. In order to eliminate these glitches during exercises, tactical exercises and command post training.

          Quote: basmach
          Yes, and in battle, the infantryman especially has no time to consider pictures, otherwise you will quickly find yourself in a different reality.

          And the majority of artillerymen in battle are engaged exclusively in pieces of paper ...
          1. basmach
            basmach 25 December 2016 18: 40
            0
            In order to apply something, it is necessary to have data, communication channels of information sources with ACS. Game theory was also studied. And in order to leave the field of counter-battery firing (although I am not an art), ACS is needed last, if not at all. No Asu will help you if the calculation is calving (you should understand that). Yes, and as I understand it, the withdrawal positions are set in advance (and if you did not plan them in advance, relying on ACS, then what kind of pro are you). Yes, and the army we not only consists of art. I do not argue, there are areas in the army where it is necessary, but to consider that it will replace everything and everything is the height of stupidity.
            1. Lopatov
              Lopatov 25 December 2016 19: 30
              0
              Quote: basmach
              In order to apply something, it is necessary to have data, communication channels of information sources with ACS

              But isn’t this? What then, comrade artillery officers from the time of the Great Patriotic War, to this day have been applied to large-scale tablets for planning fire and converting individual targets into group targets? (Fun, huh? In the age of the Internet, smartphones and computers ... use a large piece of white plastic with a grid applied on it)

              Quote: basmach
              And in order to leave the field of counter-battery fire (though I am not an art), ACS is needed last, if not at all. No Asu will help you if the calculation is calving (you should understand that).

              You are absolutely right, you can unscrew from the fire after a minute fire attack without ACS.
              The question is how much will the unit be withdrawn from the artillery fire system. For tens of seconds with ACS or tens of minutes without ACS.
              If you think that the fire department is engaged in the following way: they came, got up and started shooting, then you are grossly mistaken. A division without an automated control system is deployed on pre-prepared and attached firepower during the day in 15 minutes with excellent marks. About the unprepared, at night and for three points, I will not even report, so as not to upset. Although no, I will still disappoint ... in 31 minutes with control machines and 36 minutes without them
              Now you begin to understand what even a simple ACS for artillery is?


              Quote: basmach
              Yes, and the army we not only consists of art. I do not argue, there are areas in the army where it is necessary, but to consider that it will replace everything and everything is the height of stupidity.

              Do you somehow ask the infantry officers how much work the battalion headquarters have to do with the simple task of organizing a march.
              1. basmach
                basmach 25 December 2016 22: 14
                0
                Do you somehow ask what (in the event of a full-blown conflict) will be destroyed first. And when all this goes blind, it turns out that nobody can work with a ruler and a piece of white plastic. And to close communication channels there is electronic warfare. Pull wire connection. In addition, we are talking about different principles. There is a classic problem about a traveling salesman and 60 cities. The bottom line is to make the best route. So, the machine (according to the program it will stupidly calculate ALL possible options (as in chess), a person determines a group of optimal routes.To replace a person with an ACS, you need an artificial intelligence that can think like a person, and not stupidly calculate options, because everything changes in war "This is not a stable factory process. It is impossible to foresee and program everything. The more complicated the program, the more problems it has. There is an old joke for programmers. How long does it take for one programmer to develop a program - 3 months." if they will have two-5 months. And if 10-time program generally will not. A simple example of a game. How many of them are developing and how many patches are then. The game is not a war. prog into account in as many varying factors.
                1. Lopatov
                  Lopatov 25 December 2016 22: 49
                  +1
                  Quote: basmach
                  How do you take an interest in what (in the event of a full-blown conflict) will be destroyed first. And when all this goes blind, it turns out that nobody can work with a ruler and a piece of white plastic.

                  N-yes ... That is, do you consider the destruction of all personal computers in Russia to be a completely feasible task?

                  Quote: basmach
                  To replace a human ACS, you need an artificial intelligence that can think like a person, and not stupidly calculate options,

                  It depends on what you plan to shift the share of responsibility to ACS. And what proportion is needed. For example, when repelling a massive raid by enemy aircraft, I’m afraid a person can only have the role of a general leadership. For his reactions simply will not be enough to manage all the processes in a manual form.

                  Quote: basmach
                  A simple example of a game. How many of them are being developed and how many patches are coming.

                  A simple example of the Microsoft Office. Sea of ​​glitches, sea of ​​patches. But people, oddly enough, continue to use it. So, for example, you switched to a typewriter due to the fact that there are a lot of flaws in text editors? Sure no. And why do you propose to make it military? A graduate of an artillery school is already capable of so much that, in principle, graduates of civilian universities are not able to. For example, count on a slide rule. 8)))
                  1. Parsec
                    Parsec 26 December 2016 00: 04
                    0
                    You do not understand the fundamental difference between automation and mechanization.

                    Quote: Spade
                    N-yes ... That is, do you consider the destruction of all personal computers in Russia to be a completely feasible task?

                    ... you will have the most up-to-date smart phone in the absence of a telephone exchange, or, closer to modern realities, a cell within reach. Or there will be a honeycomb, but overloaded with service, which, in addition to a pair of sticks on the screen, will not deliver any other joy.

                    Quote: Spade
                    For example, when repelling a massive raid by enemy aircraft, I’m afraid a person can only have the role of a general leadership. For his reactions simply will not be enough to manage all the processes in a manual form.

                    So it is provided, and it will be so. The script for the reflection of a massive plaque is developed BEFORE the raid. The work of a senior manager should be the choice of alternatives; but the preparation of alternatives is the work of the headquarters. And the management of all processes during a raid will quickly shut up overloading any genius. Whoever does not understand this has not grown up to the leadership.

                    Quote: Spade
                    A simple example of the Microsoft Office. Sea of ​​glitches, sea of ​​patches. But people, oddly enough, continue to use it. So, for example, you switched to a typewriter due to the fact that there are a lot of flaws in text editors?

                    The average user uses 2 (two) percent of the capabilities of a word processor, an advanced 5 percent; same for table processors. And they, as a rule, do not go out to package errors - they appear at a different level.
                    Give a couple of examples from the sea, in any processor, text or table.
                    1. Cat man null
                      Cat man null 26 December 2016 00: 41
                      +1
                      Your psyche is going, camping ...

                      You first need to see a psychiatrist to set the direction. Then - to the psychologist. If not hopeless, yeah ...
                    2. Lopatov
                      Lopatov 26 December 2016 08: 31
                      0
                      Quote: Parsec
                      you will have the most modern smart phone in the absence of a telephone exchange, or, closer to modern realities, the cell is within reach. Or there will be a honeycomb, but overloaded with service, which, in addition to a pair of sticks on the screen, will not deliver any other joy.


                      Here they are, "a couple of sticks on the screen"

                      Quote: Parsec
                      The average user uses 2 (two) percent of the capabilities of a word processor, an advanced 5 percent; same for table processors. And they, as a rule, do not go out to package errors - they appear at a different level.

                      Here I am about that. If an artillery officer creeps out a glitch in rarely used astronomy, he will sigh and climb over the tables. But this does not mean that it is imperative to abandon the entire system / entire software package.
              2. basmach
                basmach 25 December 2016 22: 18
                0
                And by the way, the atra from the system will not be displayed for the duration of the ACS, but at least for the time it is relocated, not for a dozen seconds (ACS is not a magic wand)
                1. Lopatov
                  Lopatov 25 December 2016 22: 51
                  0
                  Quote: basmach
                  And by the way, the atra from the system will not be displayed for the duration of the ACS, but at least for the time it is relocated, not for a dozen seconds (ACS is not a magic wand)

                  Well, this is also a dozen seconds. Do you think you’ll have to leave for tens of kilometers?
  6. trantor
    trantor 25 December 2016 09: 25
    +6
    There is only one conclusion: while personal responsibility will not be attached to personal responsibility, nothing will move anywhere. And this is not necessarily a shooting.
    1. novobranets
      novobranets 25 December 2016 09: 51
      +1
      Quote: trantor
      until personal responsibility is attached to personal positions, nothing will move anywhere.

      During the conclusion of contracts, it is necessary to stipulate not only deadlines, but also deadlines for non-compliance. PYSY And what on the photo of a fantastic pepelats wheels are back to front? So will they do? Shoals from the first steps.
  7. cannabis
    cannabis 25 December 2016 09: 51
    +2
    The article is either translated from foreign analytics or written by a "Western-minded" person. Such phrases as "road map", "corporate environment", "bearers of design competencies" and a number of others cause rejection, if not hostility, towards the text in Russian people. In the article, the thought about the harmfulness of the mobilization economy runs through the edge of the "thread". Always, at all times, only the army could not protect such a vastness and distance as Russia. The people rose and saved the country from invaders. This is mobilization. And it is unacceptable to rely in modern times on a small army armed with modern but small-scale weapons. The people HAVE the RIGHT to defend their homeland.
    1. Tambov Wolf
      Tambov Wolf 25 December 2016 10: 10
      +3
      These foreign words have already zadolbali. Our words replace the devil with what. Remember the film "Volunteers". Now that, "Volunteers" or something. What kind of trash it turns out. When this Western worship only ends. It's time to introduce the law on littering the Russian language. Okay. , if in Russian there is no suitable designation. But if there is, then excuse me. Get a fascist grenade.
      1. cannabis
        cannabis 25 December 2016 10: 16
        +1
        Quote: Tambov Wolf
        Remember the movie "Volunteers".

        I remember of course, this is one of my favorite in childhood. Only with age did he begin to realize that such a vivid and patriotic film was created especially for the young generation, who did not know about the Volunteer Army, as the last attempt to protect Russia from the Zionists - the Communists.
    2. proletarian
      proletarian 25 December 2016 16: 25
      +1
      Read the article more closely, this article provides an analysis of what was, what is and what is needed; in an accessible modern "people" language and do not be surprised at foreign words and phrases, because the author aimed to convey his opinion not only to those who grew up in the USSR, but also to today's youth, for whom such words as: competencies, corporate environment, roadmap are much clearer than ours: engineering and technical capabilities, cross-industry cooperation, planning, in general, something like this.
  8. Vovanya
    Vovanya 25 December 2016 13: 50
    0
    Quote: novobranets
    pictured fantastic pepelats wheels back to front

    He has in front of where his ass.
  9. proletarian
    proletarian 25 December 2016 16: 01
    +2
    In my purely personal opinion, this article is more suitable for the "Analytics" section, simply because the author very seriously "delved into" the realities and, based on the conclusions, makes very reasonable proposals for the development of not only the defense industry, but the entire industry (from training and retaining personnel, before strategic planning).
    Afterword: It is a pity that for the most part they listen not to real analysts, but to "ehvective managers".
    And yes: You can crap me as you like, I'm just a "proletarian", but even taking into account the fact that I have forgotten more than some have learned, I believe that all the same they will begin to listen to such opinions, otherwise "kirdyk".
    1. cannabis
      cannabis 25 December 2016 16: 39
      0
      Quote: proletarian
      "kirdyk".

      This beast is already peering over the shoulders of "technology policy system integrators."
    2. Parsec
      Parsec 26 December 2016 00: 07
      +1
      Quote: proletarian
      (from training and retention to strategic planning).

      It is not worth the task of retaining personnel before a normally operating enterprise.
      Ford has long described it all.
  10. Siny
    Siny 26 December 2016 15: 58
    0
    Russia needs to look for its niche in international trade, can ecotourism?
    1. Vladimir Postnikov
      Vladimir Postnikov 27 December 2016 03: 51
      0
      Have you been to Europe? Apparently not. In our Leningrad Region, all exits on roadsides outside settlements are littered with piles of garbage. And what about other areas? The beaches on the lakes and the gulf beyond the city limits are incredibly craped. They bring, with ... and, their full bottles and bags with grub on their cars, but they do not take away empty ones back. Leave, along with processed and unprocessed contents.
      And what about the situation in the Arctic? You were there? I was.
      And in Europe I ride.
      Ecotourism .... Peacocks .... You hit me for the living.
  11. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 26 December 2016 16: 37
    0
    So what are we talking about? The state is pushing money into the military-industrial complex. In response, receives a trepak ...
    The eternal theme! All countries around the world consider their defense industry to be snickering thieves who produce frank junk at ultra-high prices. And so it is. It's true. So it is, military products - outright rubbish, shameful, worthless, with no junk climbing through any gates. As I recall a review of an army power station or a mobile repair complex, I don’t know whether to laugh or use foul language. After all bullshit! I am ashamed! But it’s beneficial ... After all, you just need to agree with military receivers from the Moscow Region. In modern conditions - stupidly give money. And that’s all. Is Rogozin shouting something there? More to give. And they will. They’ll give it anyway ... they’ll accept it anyway.
    But was not one single country in the world successful in this matter? Do you remember that? Remember the thousands of strongest maneuvering tanks, stunning artillery, absolutely incredible in reliability and efficiency, samples from almost any field of military use? Was it right? But as? And after all, there is an answer.
    Institute of Chief Designers. It is impossible to summon a horde of faceless thieves to order - top, half-top, quarter-top managers and just scammers from offices. Their task in life is to snatch. And they will snatch, even though you shoot every tenth. After all ... in general, it doesn’t matter, it’s already particular. But in general - the Civil Code is appointed with the rights of a medieval dictator.
    In his structure, he is free to fire, deprive him of money, put him in jail with confiscation, reward him, shower money, and generally do whatever he wants with his subordinates. Yes, under Stalin, the Civil Code had all the rights and opportunities. As well as the Civil Code, they single-handedly managed colossal funds, bought, sold, dug up or built towers to heaven, and no one dared to utter a word until ... While the IL plowed the enemy’s positions like a soft loam plow.
    GK is not enough. It is easy to control them with senior management. They depend on the authorities in everything, this should be just so - in the case of outright failures, they will consider their cases in a special order. Destroyed public funds and resources? To the wall or to prison. Korolev sat, and the result? All the tops would sit like that, if we had already plowed Mars by half ...
    One thing turns out bad in this case. It is impossible to steal. Habitual billions going through MO acceptance into whose pockets? They, these billions, will run out. So all my reasoning is a dream. Unattainable yet. While we are still bursts of queues on our streets, hordes of enemies are not watered. And then - do we have time? Oh, I doubt it ...
  12. Vladimir Postnikov
    Vladimir Postnikov 27 December 2016 03: 32
    0
    It was only in 2013 that you noticed that “the carriers of design competencies in it are at the third or fourth levels of the corporate hierarchy”?
    I am sure that it was not Rogozin who noticed it, but it was the "carriers of design competencies" who told him.
    Well, voiced at last. And Rogozin heard them. 14 years before, only effective managers existed for Vladimir Putin. Suddenly they remembered the designers. Just remembered. What changed? Have effective managers made a difference? I have not heard that. Judging by the published results, effective managers are still a thief .... in short, they work.
    I won’t say anything about planning. I still have television shots before my eyes when they smashed the State Planning Commission at the beginning of 90x. They smashed him.
    I'd rather say about the final part - "development policy".
    The development policy of your company is determined by the owner of this company. If it is a joint-stock company, then its policy is determined by shareholders. It is they who decide which part of the revenues should be directed to the development of production, and which part - to dividends.
    New course, you say? Also increase the speed? Sorry, but our scow does not go to the open sea. Cruiser? Yes, our scow bears the big name "Cruiser". But if they wanted a cruiser, then it was necessary to lay the cruiser, and not the scow.
    For that fought for it and ran.