Palmyra sacrificed for the complete liberation of Aleppo
The liberation of Aleppo is now widely discussed by the entire world community, and not always in a positive way. But be that as it may, the circumstances in this metropolis have developed successfully for the government forces, and military happiness is on the side of Damascus, and therefore Russia. The urgency of the development of events in this sector of the front is amazing. Even on Tuesday morning, information was received on the course of the battle for the Salaheddin area of no more than 3 square. km, which kept a group of irreconcilable Islamists. And in the evening it was reported that the last militants are ready to lay down weapon and a ceasefire has already been reached. The government, in turn, provided the militants with the opportunity to leave Aleppo with their families. By noon on Wednesday, the situation was dramatically exacerbated. Jihadists violated the agreement and opened fire. The battle for the rest of the land in their hands resumed. According to the Russian Center for Conciliation of the Warring Parties, by that date more than 110 thousand civilians, including about 45 thousand children, were evacuated from the eastern districts of the city. At the moment, many of them have had the opportunity to return to their homes. People who survived the horrors of war, gleefully accepted the news of the liberation of the city, they took to the streets to celebrate victory.Against the backdrop of rapidly evolving events, the representative of the Syrian Arab Army (CAA) made a statement to the press: “The army began to clean up the last stronghold of terrorists in the quarter of Salaheddin. Militants return fire and try to use mortars. However, the complete liberation of Aleppo may occur soon, which will be officially announced. ”
The battle was still going on with a handful of irreconcilable militants, gunshots thundered and shells exploded, and Russian sappers were already working to neutralize land mines, mines and unexploded ordnance left by militants in the liberated areas of the city.
Unfortunately, the moment so joyful for the residents of Aleppo and the Syrians, supporters of President Assad, was overshadowed by several negative events. Accusations of all sins with new force sounded from Washington. This time, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon threw a fly in the barrel of honey, officially announcing his concern about unconfirmed information coming from Aleppo about the atrocities of the Syrian military against the civilian population. The figures were also called - according to the information of the Western media, 82 local residents, including women and children, were shot by the Syrian military and partisans supporting them. In addition, the West consistently continues to complain that it cannot convince Moscow and Damascus to "behave prudently towards the militants fighting in Aleppo," demanding the announcement of another humanitarian pause. To which the representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Major Major Konashenkov, reasonably remarked: "Terrorists should not have the slightest opportunity for a respite, which they always use to regroup and deliver sudden blows."
Palmyra
A very bitter pill, amid success in Aleppo, was the loss of Palmyra. No matter how banal it may sound, you still have to answer the eternal Russian questions "who is to blame" and "what to do". What immediately catches the eye? The command of the CAA and the Russian General Staff could not help but realize that Palmyra, ever since its release, was under threat of a new takeover. This was indicated by the configuration of the line of contact between government forces and the armed forces of the Islamic State (IG, prohibited in Russia). And the fact that the city is located in the depth of the operational ledge, which is deeply reaching the areas controlled by the Islamists, and surrounded on three sides by the enemy, is an evidence that the Syrian and Russian military leaders could not ignore. The converging strikes of the enemy from the north and south in the direction of the highway connecting the city with the center of the province of Homs could have led to the encirclement of the Palmyra garrison and the formation of a boiler. And this obviousness demanded measures for the complex preparation of Palmyra for defense, since the attack of the enemy, given the situation, was to be expected. For him, the city was in all respects a tasty morsel, and a new offensive by the Islamists to capture it was only a matter of time. This section of the Syrian theater of war had to pay special attention primarily to intelligence. What action was needed to prevent a disaster? Almost nothing.
Immediately after the fall of Palmyra, military expert Viktor Litovkin in the commentary for the "NVO" was not shy in expressions, describing the situation. In his opinion, all the attention of the Russian General Staff and the Syrian command was riveted to Aleppo, but they simply forgot about Palmyra. Her defense was entirely entrusted to the CAA, which was a serious mistake. You should always take into account the specifics of the Syrian military and not leave them unattended. As experience shows, their resilience is quite ephemeral — and they did not hold out for three days defending a settlement. As an example, they can put Islamist militants who have been fighting for years, keeping urban neighborhoods behind them.
The Syrian command did not prepare the city for defense. And this is considering that Palmyra was at the very tip of the ledge, deeply wedged into the territory controlled by the IG. And always, since the liberation of this city, there was a danger that the Islamists would return it to their hands. It turns out that the next capture of Palmyra by them was only a matter of time. The lack of manpower in the ranks of the SAA and allies is a known fact, but none of the Syrian command even thought about creating militias or self-defense units from the local population of Tadmor. According to Litovkin, Russian air and space intelligence were also not up to par. The Islamists gathered forces near Palmyra for more than one day. How could you not pay attention to the movement of enemy units in a certain direction, to concentrate them in the immediate vicinity of the city? With timely intelligence aviation had the opportunity to deliver preemptive strikes and prevent what happened. As they say, from the General Staff of Syria bribes are smooth, but one cannot ignore the obvious miscalculation in the work of advisers.
Litovkin also stressed that the return of Palmyra under the control of the Syrian government is a matter of prestige for Russia. There can be no doubt about the need to win back the city. But we must take into account the fact that in military terms it is more important now to finish the operation in Aleppo, and with Palmyra it’s still worth the wait.
According to Litovkin, the issue of shortage of manpower in the ranks of the CAA and allies should not be decided by the Russian Federation. The army can be replenished from Damascus from its resources, from Iran, Iraq at the expense of Hezbollah, the Hazaras, but in no case can the units of the Russian Ground Forces enter this country. The expert said: “Syria is important for Russia, Moscow is counting on cooperation with this country and the preservation of its military bases on its territory. But we cannot allow Syria to become a second Afghanistan. ”
The expert criticized the long humanitarian pauses arising under pressure from the West. According to him, to end the war, you need to "stop bending before Washington and make changes to the planning of military operations in Syria, adjusted for shouts from overseas, and fight to victory, without stopping, playing into the hands of the enemy."
EVENT CHAINOn the question of how intelligence was able to miss the movement of enemy forces in the desert terrain and concentrating them in at least three places to throw at Palmyra and the route connecting it to Homs, it is difficult to answer. And why, with the start of the Islamist offensive, the necessary response from the CAA command and the Russian videoconferencing forces did not follow, it is all the more impossible to understand.
On the evening of December 7, several vehicles loaded with explosives burst into the position of government troops near the village of Khuweisis (about 90 km northwest of Palmyra), suicide drivers performed their duty, powerful explosions erupted, after which the Islamists launched an attack to the battalion infantry, supported by artillery, tanks and SUVs equipped with heavy machine guns. And this was only the first echelon of terrorists. Having mastered the first point, the militants continued the offensive in two directions - to the southeast, towards the northern outskirts of Palmyra, and to the south in order to gain control of the heights dominating the only highway leading to the west. At the same time, they attacked the Syrian military in the area of Qasr Al-Khalabat (about 18 km south-west of Palmyra), having achieved success here, they continued their offensive in the north-east direction to saddle the chain of peaks located south of Palmyra and the route connecting her with Homs.
Already at this stage it was possible to conclude about the seriousness of the situation. It was clear that the enemy was trying to take the city into a ring, but for some reason there was no emergency action to prevent the impending catastrophe on the part of the CAA command. The next day, the militants had already rushed into the suburbs. All that the military leaders could come up with was to begin an emergency evacuation of the civilian population, it is known from official information what was really happening is difficult to say. The next day, militant forces, previously concentrated in the Arak region (approximately 30 km east of Palmyra), went westward along the route leading from Dair Al-Zor. This group broke into the defense of government forces and broke into the city from the east. The Islamists massively used their main weapon - “shahid-cars” and, despite the losses, sought to occupy residential areas of Tadmor, knowing that aviation would not bomb them, fearing civilian casualties.
The next two days, 9 and 10 December, the battles were fought in the city and on its outskirts, one might say, with varying success, but it was obvious that the enemy had a big advantage over government forces in numbers and combat capability and was pushing the latter on all counts. Later, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported that the Islamists managed to gather more than 5 thousands of fighters near Palmyra. (Again, a question for reconnaissance. How could such an accumulation of forces be overlooked?) On the night from 10 to 11 in December, the combat aircraft of the Syrian Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Forces struck several powerful blows at jihadists. TU-22MS took part in the airstrikes; on some of the targets, strikes were made by Caliber cruise missiles; in addition, more than 20 helicopters were involved in stopping the enemy’s rapid attack. This allowed the defending side to successfully counterattack the igilovtsy in some places, but the government forces could not develop this success, by the end of December 11, they were pulled out of the city like a bottle cork. There is information that in some areas the retreat of the Syrian troops was reminiscent of a stampede. According to unconfirmed reports, the Islamists seized depots with ammunition, small arms and ammunition (which were intended to attack Deir ez-Zor, scheduled for the 2017 campaign of the year), various armored vehicles and vehicles (up to 30 units), several D-20 howitzers and one the Gradz MLRS machine, and so on. The Washington Post suggested that the Islamists got the C-125 anti-aircraft missile system (the IG managed to seize the Muhajarah Syrian air defense base). The Syrians suffered serious casualties killed, wounded and captured. On Tuesday, Islamists announced the execution of 45 Syrian soldiers captured during a retreat from Palmyra.
The next day, the Islamists have already attacked the position of the Syrians in the immediate vicinity of the Syrian military airfield Tias (T-4), the loss of which is unacceptable for Damascus. Finally, according to reports from December 13, it became known that the government forces managed to throw the Islamists away from the military air base. To strengthen its troops defending the airfield, the government sent significant forces, including the Golan regiment and the Kalamuna Shield battalion. The backbone of these forces are units formed from representatives of the tribes inhabiting the mountainous regions of the province of Damascus.
Many military experts, assessing the high art of the actions of the IG units during the capture of Palmyra, suggested that this operation was planned and carried out with the help of Western military advisers.
POSSIBILITY OF A REVENGE
With the loss of Palmyra, many loud statements were made by Syrian officials (but not by Bashar al-Assad). In particular, the governor of Homs predicted the imminent release of Palmyra, but how soon it will be soon - only time will tell. It was also stated that with the end of the operation in Aleppo, significant forces would be redeployed to the province of Homs for the same purpose. Given the information on the preparation of a counter-attack on Aleppo by the forces of the so-called moderate opposition, for which the Islamists are gathering a powerful fist in Idlib province, it can be said that Palmyra will not be released soon. In addition, in Aleppo itself, a lot of work will have to be done to clean up the city from the remnants of the gangs, which may require quite a long time and considerable forces. It is always necessary to finish the case.
Former Commander of the Airborne Forces, Colonel General Georgy Shpak, retired, believes that "militants in Aleppo have defenses, trenches, basements, underground passages, it will be difficult to smoke them out of there, they will have to work thoroughly in Aleppo, they will have to clean the city, but with this you can poke around until spring. ” He also noticed that someday “Palmyra will be released, no doubt, although it has more symbolic than strategic importance”.
The jihadists have now intensified in other locations of the theater of operations, and battles have flared up again in Dair al-Zor and the suburbs of Damascus (Bard and Qaryatay). The Syrian command is unlikely to divert troops from Eastern Guta, where bloody battles with the IG units continue. The worst mistake in the current situation would be the dispersion of forces. To achieve strategic advantages often have to sacrifice something. In war, prestige is not a basic goal, the cornerstone of all decisions is common sense.
Ultimately, the primary tasks of military operations are the destruction of the enemy's army and the preservation of their troops. And the seizure or retention of territories and settlements are related to secondary tasks, which are performed on the basis of considerations of expediency. It is for these reasons, the question of whether to win Palmyra again or not, should be removed from the agenda. Given the situation of this city, it can be concluded that after the new liberation, it will again be in the depth of the operational ledge and the danger of its capture by the forces of the IG will remain. We will have to constantly divert troops to the defense of this settlement, which is not of military value.
RETURN TO ALEPPO
In the Syrian epic, informational war plays a significant role. The liberation of Aleppo allows Moscow and Damascus to develop success in this direction. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has received new information and visual evidence of the false accusations of war crimes by the West. The head of the Russian military press service, Major General Konashenkov, noted that during the operation in the megalopolis, no so-called local opposition councils had been found, in any case, local residents had not heard anything about them. Everything that people encountered during the time of the omnipotence of jihadists was: “only hunger and total terror from the militants for any attempts to express dissatisfaction or leave the enclave”.
It was also revealed that all the allegedly documentary videos about Russian bombing and shootings that took away the lives of civilians are staged, they were filmed by special television groups using extras. All oral information on the same topic is false from the first to the last word.
Russian sappers from the International Mine Action Center are currently working in Aleppo. Exploring schools and hospitals, which, according to the Western media, were subjected to airstrikes of the Russian air force or the Syrian air force, they concluded that none of these facilities functioned "under the militants for their intended purpose, they were all used as headquarters, Sharia courts , points of concentration of militants, ammunition depots or workshops for the production of improvised rockets. "
Officers from the Conciliation Center are also involved in the work of identifying facts of falsification of information coming from areas where military operations are conducted or were conducted. All newly received data without distortion are provided to the media, including the Western.
Konashenkov, in turn, declared that the West was indifferent in humanitarian aid to the Syrians, he said: “All our appeals to Western colleagues and international organizations to send the promised humanitarian aid to the civilians who escaped from the terrorist enclave of Aleppo remained unanswered. Instead of helping the Syrians, there is silence or excuses about “security threats.” Although earlier for the direction of assistance to the terrorist-controlled eastern districts of Aleppo, no danger in London, Paris, Berlin and Washington for some reason did not frighten anyone. ”
Information