New Middle Eastern Reality
The situation in Syria shows the international community in its true form, as it is. The picture turns out to be non-complementary neither for the UN, nor for the “great powers”, nor for their regional allies - Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, Russia demonstrates not only stubbornness and consistency in the diplomatic arena, where it is opposed to serious pressure, but also military skill, forcing potential adversaries to reckon with it.
Consider the current situation in Syria in the light of the actions of the Russian Federation and Turkey, based on the work of the expert IBI, Yu. B. Shcheglovina, prepared for the institute.
Last thing weapon Erdogan
29 November, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made another statement that the true purpose of his army in Syria is to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad and return the country to the "true masters". The reaction to his words of domestic politicians and the media was extremely acute. In this case, it was she who gave them weight. The main problems that Turkey itself pays attention to are the fire in the hostel in Adana (children were killed), approaching the transfer of the draft constitutional reform to the Majlis and ... the reaction of the Kremlin to Erdogan’s phrase. Moreover, it is not a statement as such, its perception by Moscow, since there are no military, economic, or political resources to “overthrow the Assad regime” from Ankara.
In theory, Turkey should seethe about what losses the army will suffer if, in practice, it tries to make a “festive” Friday Namaz in Damascus, as Erdogan promises from 2011 onwards. But this Friday namaz has long become a popular expression in Turkey, denoting what has not come to pass. And by the way, nobody cares how Aksaray will react to Moscow’s perplexity. So the Turks regard the words of Erdogan as an informational stuffing - the second one lately. The first was the imaginary entry of his country into the SCO. Note: at the Jerusalem summit in Istanbul, before those who gathered in the hall, and the Arab "street" Erdogan can not speak otherwise. He has the image of an implacable fighter against Islamophobia, "tyrants" like the Syrian president, Israel and the West. Image obliges to make tough statements.
His words are a signal to Saudi Arabia and Qatar that Turkey is still their strategic ally, despite the curtsies towards Trump, made with the expectation of partnership, subject to the issue of the preacher Gulen, and Moscow, with whom "reconciliation" took place. It is also no accident that Erdogan’s statement was made on the eve of the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Turkey. Ankara is lobbying for the lifting of sanctions against its business and the return of the parties to the visa-free regime, also trying to allow reciprocal entry through internal documents and switch to settlements in national currencies.
Turkey seeks to score as many points as possible using any suitable rhetoric, whether it be membership in the SCO or the overthrow of Assad. The country is in a difficult economic situation, has suffered from a break in relations with Russia, an attempted coup and the introduction of a state of emergency, tensions with the EU and participation in Iraqi and Syrian events. And in none of these areas is she able to improve her position. In this situation, she can only rhetoric, which will make foreign "partners" respond - which is what Erdogan does.
Consultation with the opposition
As the representatives of the Syrian opposition from the northern part of the country told the Financial Times newspaper, they are negotiating with Russia in Ankara with the mediation of Turkey on how to put an end to the confrontation in Aleppo. “Washington is completely cut off from these negotiations and has no idea about what is happening in Ankara,” the source testifies. As the newspaper notes, such negotiations can leave Washington aside from the most important conflicts in the Middle East. The parties did not reach a consensus, but the fact that negotiations are taking place without US participation emphasizes changes in the Middle East, the FT states.
Note that this is indirectly confirmed by the information that Ankara and Moscow, against the background of statements by President Erdogan against the Assad regime, agreed on joint efforts for humanitarian interventions in Aleppo. The role of Turkey is obviously not limited to the supply of aid, but includes the impact on the groups that still continue to resist in eastern Aleppo, including Nuredd az-Zinki, which is blocked from the “Dzhebkhat al-Nusroy” banned in the Russian Federation (it’s also Dzhebhat Fath ash-Sham ”).
Initially, Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia planned to use Aleppo as an alternative to Damascus and create a government that would act on the international stage as a “true representative of the Syrian people” (Libyan option). Therefore, Aleppo and paid special attention to the West, in the Arabian monarchies and in Turkey. Negotiations in Ankara show that it decided to respond to the situation and proceed in Syrian politics from the loss of control over Aleppo. Speech about the expansion of the opposition throughout the territory is no longer going. Ankara needs to thwart the Kurds' plans for the formation of a parastatal enclave in northern Syria. It is planned to solve this problem at the expense of pro-Turkish groups, reorienting them from the war against Damascus to create an advantage over the Kurds in the northern regions. It is possible that for the sake of this Ankara will reduce its participation in the logistics of the Syrian armed opposition through the Turkish logistics corridors, even to the detriment of relations with Riyadh. Using them in the old regime forces Damascus and Moscow to stimulate the creation of the Kurdish “sanitary cordon” in the north.
The gap with KSA for the Turkish leadership is predetermined. Riyadh and Ankara-Doha ligaments have a different vision of the future structure of Syria and the forces that should dominate it. For Saudi Arabia, these are Salafi and affiliated with them currents, for Turkey and Qatar - the Muslim Brotherhood. Ankara will not bet on excessive military reinforcement of pro-Saudi “Dzhebhat an-Nusra”, although now there is an alliance between KSA, Turkey and Qatar, and the groups under their control often fight together. Combined with the task of overthrowing the Syrian president, they left disassembly among themselves for the post-Cassadian period. Russia's entry into Syria and success in Aleppo means that Assad will not be overthrown and the strategy must be built on this basis. Turkey and Qatar are aware of this faster than Saudi Arabia.
The beginning of consultations between Ankara and Moscow on the Syrian conflict means the beginning of the withdrawal of Turkey from under the Saudi umbrella. Leaving out of business Americans (to be confirmed) - the result of the lack of progress in the Turkish-American consultations on the support of the Syrian Kurds and the attack on Raqqa. The USA deceived Turkey by promising them that the Kurds would leave Manbij. Taking into account the Russian experience of guarantees from Obama, the Turks could already conclude that it is impossible to rely on words from the United States, but to sign papers.
Sunni Triangle Mustard
The problem of chemical weapons in Syria, usually used by opponents of Assad as a justification for the need to overthrow them, is again on the agenda. Russian military experts have proven the use of mustard against civilians in the province of Aleppo. It was applied in September at Marat-um-Haus. Unexploded chemical munitions found near army barracks. He was a homemade 240-mm mine with a filler neck in the tail section. Content - black oily liquid from 0,5 to 1,5 liter.
At one time, the topic of chemical weapons tried to use the Saudi and Turkish intelligence services to ensure that the US Air Force attacked the Syrian military facilities. This attempt was thwarted by the actions of Moscow, which guaranteed the removal of chemical weapons from Syria under the control of the OPCW. The aggravation of the situation was triggered by the provocation of anti-Assad forces, who sprayed mustard gas of artisanal production in one of the densely populated areas of Aleppo.
At the first stage of the war, Saudi special services organized the delivery of chemical weapons components to Syria with the participation of the Turks. Riyadh purchased technologies and equipment for the production of mustard through dummy companies in Albania. This country has had chemical weapons stockpiles since Enver Hoxha. After the collapse of the Tiran regime under the auspices of the OPCW, they began to utilize these arsenals. The weapon itself was destroyed, but the components for the production of mustard gas, technological documentation and laboratory equipment went to the black market. They were purchased by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Mustard production laboratories were established in Iraq in the Sunni Triangle area. The poisonous substance was shipped through Turkey to Syria.
After a failed provocation with an attempt to draw the Americans into the war in Syria with the announcement of the no-fly zone (the idea of Riyadh and Ankara based on the Libyan experience), this channel was frozen after Turkish special services seized couriers loaded with mustard. Taking into account the events connected with the coup and the hidden activities of part of the Turkish security forces to discredit the Erdogan regime, this action could complicate the actions of Ankara in Syria. It is not by chance that this public continuation story not received. Just a few months later, Baghdad made a statement that a laboratory for the production of handicraft chemical weapons was operating in the territory of the “Sunni Triangle”.
Saudi Arabia has changed tactics. Today handicraft laboratories for the production of low-quality mustard gas (which follows from the number of victims) are working in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, the Islamic State, which is banned in Russia, is selling it, which sold Dzhebhat an-Nusra mustard through Turkish intermediaries, and in Syria itself Dzhebhat an-Nusra, which organized a laboratory in Idlib.
Fracture in Aleppo
The key to the current situation in Syria was the turning point in the battle for Aleppo. The government army and Lebanese Hezbollah units took control of a number of strategic neighborhoods in eastern Aleppo, dividing the “cauldron” in two. From a military point of view, there is the agony of the defenders, the loss of their ability to resist and the growth of centrifugal sentiments among the militants. With the exhaustion of ammunition and the loss of hope for breaking the blockade, anti-Assad groups sharply reduce their combat potential.
“Dzhebhat al-Nusra” in the course of the attack on Aleppo has undermined its resources. Saudi military instructors used their usual tactics of "human waves", because of which the losses of the Islamists exceeded the permissible limits. Every third action movie was killed or wounded. As a result of unprofessional artillery command, almost the entire arsenal was spent, which had to be brought under fire from Idlib. Half for nothing. As a result, they were not able to help out those who were blocked in eastern Aleppo, and the situation of the Islamists in Idlib became catastrophic due to the shortage of manpower and ammunition.
The fact that a turning point has come is convinced by several facts. The first and main thing is the beginning of a mass exodus of civilians along the corridors provided (tens of thousands) and the surrender of several hundred militants. It is necessary to complete the operation in eastern Aleppo and prepare an attack on Idlib, the militant bases in which should be under constant pressure from artillery and aviation. The command of Jebhat al-Nusra ordered its supporters to leave Aleppo, since a point was put on its defense.
The loss of Idlib will mean the end of Saudi Arabia’s organized presence in Syria, a loss to Iran in this conflict and a blow to the reputation (and not so brilliant due to failures in domestic and foreign policy) of the heir to the Crown Prince and Defense Minister KSA Mohammed bin Salman. So we must be prepared for the fact that Riyadh will strain all resources in order to keep Idlib.
The second point showing that the situation in Aleppo for anti-Assad forces is close to a catastrophe is the activity of US Secretary of State John Kerry, who is trying to renew the framework agreement with the Russian Federation on Aleppo. The current administration does not leave attempts to reach an agreement with Russia, providing for the completion of the siege of Aleppo in exchange for the disengagement of the Syrian opposition forces and the Dzhebhat Fath ash-Sham terrorist group (the former Dzhebhat an Nusra) stationed there. This was reported by the Washington Post. The administration understands that Trump can make a "different kind of deal with Moscow", make an agreement that "throws the Syrian opposition to the mercy of fate and firmly puts" Washington on the side of President Assad.
From a practical point of view, Damascus and Moscow need to continue stripping militants from eastern Aleppo. This will clearly accelerate the process of joining the peace process of new settlements in opposition to Assad, will strengthen the centrifugal tendencies in the opposing groups and will create the basis for negotiations on a peaceful settlement. This should be combined with humanitarian interventions by the population of Aleppo. The profile structures of the UN should be publicly upset by taking a neutral and wait-and-see attitude on this issue. This topic should be put in front of the United States constantly, without forgetting that the main task remains the complete cleansing of Aleppo from militants.
"Russian factor"
What exactly has allowed the Syrian government forces to achieve progress in Aleppo, despite the fact that there is still a lot of work to occupy the remaining quarters of the Islamists and talk about final success after the entire eastern part of the city comes under the control of government forces? First and foremost, the work of the General Staff of the Russian Army. After receiving the order to start preparing such a military operation, he was faced with the task: to determine the format of the participation of the RF Armed Forces. He had to ensure the political and physical survival of the Assad regime, but avoid the danger of becoming stuck in a conflict with permanent losses without visible progress, as was the case in Afghanistan.
The United States could not solve this problem in Iraq, although Secretary of Defense Robert Gates tried to do it. Determining the necessary and sufficient format for the country's participation in hostilities is the main task of the military leadership before deciding to intervene in conflicts of low and medium intensity. In addition to Russia and the command of its Armed Forces, no one in modern history has managed to do this if we are talking about world powers and major local clashes of modernity. It should be noted a high level of planning operations, starting with the transfer of a group of Russian VKS to Syria and its deployment there. This was an absolute surprise for the US and its intelligence, which is important in itself.
The Russian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff had to solve the problem of the optimal format of participation in the war with a shortage of human resources in the Syrian army, which collapsed along interfaith borders, which reduced it to two or three divisions of the whole and most of the air force with a worn out fleet, with the increasing panic of the CAA command and political leadership against the backdrop of a massive desertion of Sunni soldiers and officers. The Russian military operation in Syria can be attributed to the model of wars not by number, but by skill.
Our military and political leadership had to quickly address the issue of not only stabilizing the situation on the fronts, creating an optimal cover for the Syrian army, but also the problem of operational management and strategic planning. The advisers sent to the Syrian Armed Forces headquarters were tasked with ensuring not only operational control, but also combat coordination between Syrians, Iranians and Lebanese, separate branches of forces and fronts in the southern and northern directions. It was necessary to find a consensus with the Kurdish units, which positioned themselves as an autonomous force. Moscow, unlike Washington, has solved this difficult task.
It should be noted that the conflict in Syria, as well as in Iraq, Libya and Yemen, is inter-tribal and interfaith. The concept of local truces with tribes, sheikhs, groups and settlements, developed and successfully implemented by the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, worked to the full. More than a thousand of these types of structures and military units went on a truce with the government. Thanks to this approach, the south of Syria was calmed down, which made it possible to concentrate a few government forces in the north, in the region of Aleppo and Homs. The painstaking and difficult work was carried out mainly by Russian negotiators from among military advisers. In terms of its overall success, this task is on a par with those solved by Russian advisers and military pilots and sailors at the command points of the Syrian army.
In Aleppo, small forces of the government army, strengthened thanks to advisers organizationally, technically, and morally with the same quantitative composition, in a short time will reach a change in dynamics on the fronts. The rupture of the defense of the Islamists was also possible due to the correct assessment of the enemy’s combat potential and the miscalculation of the algorithm of its actions. The strategy was based on exhausting, which led to success. The operation of Russian videoconferencing in Syria is a successful embodiment of an optimal model of participation in local conflicts of medium and high intensity, which the West and first of all the United States could not build. At the same time, the effectiveness of the work of Russian military advisers to the Syrian army is the result of surprise inspections conducted by the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. The policy aimed at creating a highly professional army, justifies itself, which is confirmed in Syria in a real combat situation.
Consider the current situation in Syria in the light of the actions of the Russian Federation and Turkey, based on the work of the expert IBI, Yu. B. Shcheglovina, prepared for the institute.
Last thing weapon Erdogan
29 November, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made another statement that the true purpose of his army in Syria is to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad and return the country to the "true masters". The reaction to his words of domestic politicians and the media was extremely acute. In this case, it was she who gave them weight. The main problems that Turkey itself pays attention to are the fire in the hostel in Adana (children were killed), approaching the transfer of the draft constitutional reform to the Majlis and ... the reaction of the Kremlin to Erdogan’s phrase. Moreover, it is not a statement as such, its perception by Moscow, since there are no military, economic, or political resources to “overthrow the Assad regime” from Ankara.
In theory, Turkey should seethe about what losses the army will suffer if, in practice, it tries to make a “festive” Friday Namaz in Damascus, as Erdogan promises from 2011 onwards. But this Friday namaz has long become a popular expression in Turkey, denoting what has not come to pass. And by the way, nobody cares how Aksaray will react to Moscow’s perplexity. So the Turks regard the words of Erdogan as an informational stuffing - the second one lately. The first was the imaginary entry of his country into the SCO. Note: at the Jerusalem summit in Istanbul, before those who gathered in the hall, and the Arab "street" Erdogan can not speak otherwise. He has the image of an implacable fighter against Islamophobia, "tyrants" like the Syrian president, Israel and the West. Image obliges to make tough statements.
His words are a signal to Saudi Arabia and Qatar that Turkey is still their strategic ally, despite the curtsies towards Trump, made with the expectation of partnership, subject to the issue of the preacher Gulen, and Moscow, with whom "reconciliation" took place. It is also no accident that Erdogan’s statement was made on the eve of the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Turkey. Ankara is lobbying for the lifting of sanctions against its business and the return of the parties to the visa-free regime, also trying to allow reciprocal entry through internal documents and switch to settlements in national currencies.
Turkey seeks to score as many points as possible using any suitable rhetoric, whether it be membership in the SCO or the overthrow of Assad. The country is in a difficult economic situation, has suffered from a break in relations with Russia, an attempted coup and the introduction of a state of emergency, tensions with the EU and participation in Iraqi and Syrian events. And in none of these areas is she able to improve her position. In this situation, she can only rhetoric, which will make foreign "partners" respond - which is what Erdogan does.
Consultation with the opposition
As the representatives of the Syrian opposition from the northern part of the country told the Financial Times newspaper, they are negotiating with Russia in Ankara with the mediation of Turkey on how to put an end to the confrontation in Aleppo. “Washington is completely cut off from these negotiations and has no idea about what is happening in Ankara,” the source testifies. As the newspaper notes, such negotiations can leave Washington aside from the most important conflicts in the Middle East. The parties did not reach a consensus, but the fact that negotiations are taking place without US participation emphasizes changes in the Middle East, the FT states.
Note that this is indirectly confirmed by the information that Ankara and Moscow, against the background of statements by President Erdogan against the Assad regime, agreed on joint efforts for humanitarian interventions in Aleppo. The role of Turkey is obviously not limited to the supply of aid, but includes the impact on the groups that still continue to resist in eastern Aleppo, including Nuredd az-Zinki, which is blocked from the “Dzhebkhat al-Nusroy” banned in the Russian Federation (it’s also Dzhebhat Fath ash-Sham ”).
Initially, Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia planned to use Aleppo as an alternative to Damascus and create a government that would act on the international stage as a “true representative of the Syrian people” (Libyan option). Therefore, Aleppo and paid special attention to the West, in the Arabian monarchies and in Turkey. Negotiations in Ankara show that it decided to respond to the situation and proceed in Syrian politics from the loss of control over Aleppo. Speech about the expansion of the opposition throughout the territory is no longer going. Ankara needs to thwart the Kurds' plans for the formation of a parastatal enclave in northern Syria. It is planned to solve this problem at the expense of pro-Turkish groups, reorienting them from the war against Damascus to create an advantage over the Kurds in the northern regions. It is possible that for the sake of this Ankara will reduce its participation in the logistics of the Syrian armed opposition through the Turkish logistics corridors, even to the detriment of relations with Riyadh. Using them in the old regime forces Damascus and Moscow to stimulate the creation of the Kurdish “sanitary cordon” in the north.
The gap with KSA for the Turkish leadership is predetermined. Riyadh and Ankara-Doha ligaments have a different vision of the future structure of Syria and the forces that should dominate it. For Saudi Arabia, these are Salafi and affiliated with them currents, for Turkey and Qatar - the Muslim Brotherhood. Ankara will not bet on excessive military reinforcement of pro-Saudi “Dzhebhat an-Nusra”, although now there is an alliance between KSA, Turkey and Qatar, and the groups under their control often fight together. Combined with the task of overthrowing the Syrian president, they left disassembly among themselves for the post-Cassadian period. Russia's entry into Syria and success in Aleppo means that Assad will not be overthrown and the strategy must be built on this basis. Turkey and Qatar are aware of this faster than Saudi Arabia.
The beginning of consultations between Ankara and Moscow on the Syrian conflict means the beginning of the withdrawal of Turkey from under the Saudi umbrella. Leaving out of business Americans (to be confirmed) - the result of the lack of progress in the Turkish-American consultations on the support of the Syrian Kurds and the attack on Raqqa. The USA deceived Turkey by promising them that the Kurds would leave Manbij. Taking into account the Russian experience of guarantees from Obama, the Turks could already conclude that it is impossible to rely on words from the United States, but to sign papers.
Sunni Triangle Mustard
The problem of chemical weapons in Syria, usually used by opponents of Assad as a justification for the need to overthrow them, is again on the agenda. Russian military experts have proven the use of mustard against civilians in the province of Aleppo. It was applied in September at Marat-um-Haus. Unexploded chemical munitions found near army barracks. He was a homemade 240-mm mine with a filler neck in the tail section. Content - black oily liquid from 0,5 to 1,5 liter.
At one time, the topic of chemical weapons tried to use the Saudi and Turkish intelligence services to ensure that the US Air Force attacked the Syrian military facilities. This attempt was thwarted by the actions of Moscow, which guaranteed the removal of chemical weapons from Syria under the control of the OPCW. The aggravation of the situation was triggered by the provocation of anti-Assad forces, who sprayed mustard gas of artisanal production in one of the densely populated areas of Aleppo.At the first stage of the war, Saudi special services organized the delivery of chemical weapons components to Syria with the participation of the Turks. Riyadh purchased technologies and equipment for the production of mustard through dummy companies in Albania. This country has had chemical weapons stockpiles since Enver Hoxha. After the collapse of the Tiran regime under the auspices of the OPCW, they began to utilize these arsenals. The weapon itself was destroyed, but the components for the production of mustard gas, technological documentation and laboratory equipment went to the black market. They were purchased by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Mustard production laboratories were established in Iraq in the Sunni Triangle area. The poisonous substance was shipped through Turkey to Syria.
After a failed provocation with an attempt to draw the Americans into the war in Syria with the announcement of the no-fly zone (the idea of Riyadh and Ankara based on the Libyan experience), this channel was frozen after Turkish special services seized couriers loaded with mustard. Taking into account the events connected with the coup and the hidden activities of part of the Turkish security forces to discredit the Erdogan regime, this action could complicate the actions of Ankara in Syria. It is not by chance that this public continuation story not received. Just a few months later, Baghdad made a statement that a laboratory for the production of handicraft chemical weapons was operating in the territory of the “Sunni Triangle”.
Saudi Arabia has changed tactics. Today handicraft laboratories for the production of low-quality mustard gas (which follows from the number of victims) are working in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, the Islamic State, which is banned in Russia, is selling it, which sold Dzhebhat an-Nusra mustard through Turkish intermediaries, and in Syria itself Dzhebhat an-Nusra, which organized a laboratory in Idlib.
Fracture in Aleppo
The key to the current situation in Syria was the turning point in the battle for Aleppo. The government army and Lebanese Hezbollah units took control of a number of strategic neighborhoods in eastern Aleppo, dividing the “cauldron” in two. From a military point of view, there is the agony of the defenders, the loss of their ability to resist and the growth of centrifugal sentiments among the militants. With the exhaustion of ammunition and the loss of hope for breaking the blockade, anti-Assad groups sharply reduce their combat potential.
“Dzhebhat al-Nusra” in the course of the attack on Aleppo has undermined its resources. Saudi military instructors used their usual tactics of "human waves", because of which the losses of the Islamists exceeded the permissible limits. Every third action movie was killed or wounded. As a result of unprofessional artillery command, almost the entire arsenal was spent, which had to be brought under fire from Idlib. Half for nothing. As a result, they were not able to help out those who were blocked in eastern Aleppo, and the situation of the Islamists in Idlib became catastrophic due to the shortage of manpower and ammunition.
The fact that a turning point has come is convinced by several facts. The first and main thing is the beginning of a mass exodus of civilians along the corridors provided (tens of thousands) and the surrender of several hundred militants. It is necessary to complete the operation in eastern Aleppo and prepare an attack on Idlib, the militant bases in which should be under constant pressure from artillery and aviation. The command of Jebhat al-Nusra ordered its supporters to leave Aleppo, since a point was put on its defense.
The loss of Idlib will mean the end of Saudi Arabia’s organized presence in Syria, a loss to Iran in this conflict and a blow to the reputation (and not so brilliant due to failures in domestic and foreign policy) of the heir to the Crown Prince and Defense Minister KSA Mohammed bin Salman. So we must be prepared for the fact that Riyadh will strain all resources in order to keep Idlib.
The second point showing that the situation in Aleppo for anti-Assad forces is close to a catastrophe is the activity of US Secretary of State John Kerry, who is trying to renew the framework agreement with the Russian Federation on Aleppo. The current administration does not leave attempts to reach an agreement with Russia, providing for the completion of the siege of Aleppo in exchange for the disengagement of the Syrian opposition forces and the Dzhebhat Fath ash-Sham terrorist group (the former Dzhebhat an Nusra) stationed there. This was reported by the Washington Post. The administration understands that Trump can make a "different kind of deal with Moscow", make an agreement that "throws the Syrian opposition to the mercy of fate and firmly puts" Washington on the side of President Assad.
From a practical point of view, Damascus and Moscow need to continue stripping militants from eastern Aleppo. This will clearly accelerate the process of joining the peace process of new settlements in opposition to Assad, will strengthen the centrifugal tendencies in the opposing groups and will create the basis for negotiations on a peaceful settlement. This should be combined with humanitarian interventions by the population of Aleppo. The profile structures of the UN should be publicly upset by taking a neutral and wait-and-see attitude on this issue. This topic should be put in front of the United States constantly, without forgetting that the main task remains the complete cleansing of Aleppo from militants.
"Russian factor"
What exactly has allowed the Syrian government forces to achieve progress in Aleppo, despite the fact that there is still a lot of work to occupy the remaining quarters of the Islamists and talk about final success after the entire eastern part of the city comes under the control of government forces? First and foremost, the work of the General Staff of the Russian Army. After receiving the order to start preparing such a military operation, he was faced with the task: to determine the format of the participation of the RF Armed Forces. He had to ensure the political and physical survival of the Assad regime, but avoid the danger of becoming stuck in a conflict with permanent losses without visible progress, as was the case in Afghanistan.
The United States could not solve this problem in Iraq, although Secretary of Defense Robert Gates tried to do it. Determining the necessary and sufficient format for the country's participation in hostilities is the main task of the military leadership before deciding to intervene in conflicts of low and medium intensity. In addition to Russia and the command of its Armed Forces, no one in modern history has managed to do this if we are talking about world powers and major local clashes of modernity. It should be noted a high level of planning operations, starting with the transfer of a group of Russian VKS to Syria and its deployment there. This was an absolute surprise for the US and its intelligence, which is important in itself.
The Russian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff had to solve the problem of the optimal format of participation in the war with a shortage of human resources in the Syrian army, which collapsed along interfaith borders, which reduced it to two or three divisions of the whole and most of the air force with a worn out fleet, with the increasing panic of the CAA command and political leadership against the backdrop of a massive desertion of Sunni soldiers and officers. The Russian military operation in Syria can be attributed to the model of wars not by number, but by skill.
Our military and political leadership had to quickly address the issue of not only stabilizing the situation on the fronts, creating an optimal cover for the Syrian army, but also the problem of operational management and strategic planning. The advisers sent to the Syrian Armed Forces headquarters were tasked with ensuring not only operational control, but also combat coordination between Syrians, Iranians and Lebanese, separate branches of forces and fronts in the southern and northern directions. It was necessary to find a consensus with the Kurdish units, which positioned themselves as an autonomous force. Moscow, unlike Washington, has solved this difficult task.
It should be noted that the conflict in Syria, as well as in Iraq, Libya and Yemen, is inter-tribal and interfaith. The concept of local truces with tribes, sheikhs, groups and settlements, developed and successfully implemented by the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, worked to the full. More than a thousand of these types of structures and military units went on a truce with the government. Thanks to this approach, the south of Syria was calmed down, which made it possible to concentrate a few government forces in the north, in the region of Aleppo and Homs. The painstaking and difficult work was carried out mainly by Russian negotiators from among military advisers. In terms of its overall success, this task is on a par with those solved by Russian advisers and military pilots and sailors at the command points of the Syrian army.
In Aleppo, small forces of the government army, strengthened thanks to advisers organizationally, technically, and morally with the same quantitative composition, in a short time will reach a change in dynamics on the fronts. The rupture of the defense of the Islamists was also possible due to the correct assessment of the enemy’s combat potential and the miscalculation of the algorithm of its actions. The strategy was based on exhausting, which led to success. The operation of Russian videoconferencing in Syria is a successful embodiment of an optimal model of participation in local conflicts of medium and high intensity, which the West and first of all the United States could not build. At the same time, the effectiveness of the work of Russian military advisers to the Syrian army is the result of surprise inspections conducted by the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. The policy aimed at creating a highly professional army, justifies itself, which is confirmed in Syria in a real combat situation.
Information