Military Review

Project "ZZ". What and who threatens Russia

41
Western experts have identified a number of factors that influence the position of Russia - both internal and external. If you group different opinions, it turns out the following: Russia is weakening due to the growing wedge of contradictions in the Middle East (Syria and Turkey) and the unstable situation in its own economy (the living standards of citizens are falling, a strong dependence on commodity trade remains with a low world oil price) . The third factor is active opposition to the “hidden Russian influence” of the intelligence services and departments of the United States.





Senior Researcher of the Atlantic Council in Washington, publicist Anders Oslund on the website Project Syndicate talks about the long-term sustainability of the Russian economy. According to him, "this question remains open."

The expert calls the economic “cronyism” characteristic of Russians, and the “heavy dependence” of Russia on oil revenues, due to which the economy will “suffer” every time when oil prices go down.

On the other hand, one should not forget how the USSR existed. If the Soviet Union taught us something, Aslund points out, then this is how "unstable systems can survive for many years."

Today’s Russia resembles Aslund the very Soviet system with which he first met in 1983, when he lived in Moscow. At that time, the country was being run by a “pedant from the KGB,” Yuri Andropov (“Budapest Butcher”). His health is no good. But it's not that. General economic features, both then and now, were quite similar: low oil prices, non-viable economic ideology, industries were in state ownership. And, of course, authoritarian rule.

There is, however, a difference. One, but important enough. According to Oslund, the current macroeconomic management in Russia is "much more competent than it was in those times."

Today, Russia does not risk being left without funding, despite ongoing Western sanctions. True, the lack of financial resources limits the Kremlin’s foreign policy opportunities and exacerbates the “tension” among Russian elites.

Since oil prices began to fall (in June 2014 of the year), Russia has slipped from 6 to 14 place in the global economic ratings of the International Monetary Fund. Its GDP (measured in US dollars) declined from 2,1 trillion. $ to 1,1 trillion $ and now is just 6% of US GDP. Russia is not economically competitive compared to the United States.

But at the same time, the Russian government is able to maintain a good macroeconomic balance, even if the growth prospects have faded. During 2014, the government stalled, and international reserves even showed a tendency to sharply decrease, but in December of that year, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation finally let the ruble exchange rate float, and the country's macroeconomic conditions stabilized.

In his public statements, Russian President Vladimir Putin singled out the 5 stability indicators: international reserves, foreign trade balance of payments, budget balance, inflation, and unemployment. Among them, he focuses on international reserves. In October 2016, Putin announced that “international reserves are growing” and “currently make up about 400 billion dollars.”

By the way, the international reserves of the Russian Federation include the Reserve Fund of the Ministry of Finance, which, as the expert points out, will be exhausted by the year of 2017. But for Putin, the total size of Russia's foreign exchange reserves matters.

In addition, the Ministry of Finance keeps the budget deficit at around 3% of GDP, while the fall in the exchange rate has kept revenues in ruble terms relatively stable. What has the government done to combat budget shortages? It mercilessly "hooked" education, health, and then retirement.

The tight monetary policy of the Central Bank led to a decrease in inflation (to 6%, with a planned decline to 4% next year). It is noteworthy that the unemployment rate is currently only 5,4%; government debt is quite small and makes up only 13% of GDP.

Despite these generally good performance, the standard of living of citizens is falling. Fall and investment. Real disposable income fell by 10% last year and is likely to fall further by 5-6% this year; investments fell by more than 8% last year and are likely to fall by 4% this year. As for GDP, it declined in 2015 by 3,7%. Probably, GDP will fall this year.

Western experts, of course, such indicators would be considered unacceptable. But ordinary Russians, as it turns out, appreciate the fact that their real (adjusted for inflation) revenues doubled in the period from 1999 to 2008. That is, the situation is not at all such as to enter the barricades and demolish the current regime.

But it is worth knowing and something else. Putin once saw the basis of his legitimacy in economic growth. Now he can no longer ensure a higher standard of living. What does he have left? He adheres to the advice of the imperial Minister Plehwe: "We need a small victorious war." And Putin is going this way: he "won the war in Georgia in 2008, annexed Crimea in 2014 and now continues to intervene in Syria (since September 2015 of the year)."

However, it cannot be said that he has no losses. Putin became involved in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. There he did not become a winner, even a small one. Eastern Ukraine is “a failure in foreign policy, and it shows that Russia, which has military superiority over its neighbors, cannot afford to wage long wars,” the expert notes.

The West plays on this weakness of the Kremlin and crushes Russia with sanctions that bite off about 1% of Russia's GDP each year.

Another threat to Putin’s regime is domestic elites. Aware of this internal threat, Putin has since August 2014 fired one KGB general after another, and at the same time seeks to eliminate potential rivals in power. It is not only generals who are flying: on November 15, the “purge” went in a different direction - Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, one of the “liberal technocrats”, was arrested. The day after the detention of Ulyukaev, Putin, Aslund writes enthusiastically, “addressed the Ministry of Defense with a prepared televised address, but the generals on duty looked at him with obvious disgust, and powerful Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appeared to be absolutely ignored. ”

Putin is politically savvy, the expert notes, and he often hides true intentions. It takes the whole world by surprise, both in military thinking and in diplomatic initiatives (examples: Ukraine and Syria). Yes, he is financially limited, but his position is not hopeless, and "we should always expect surprises from him," the author notes. And now, when Donald Trump won in the USA, which gave rise to a “power vacuum” in Washington, Putin has an excellent opportunity to “improve his internal status.” One can be sure that he is striving to take full advantage of this chance, Aslund sums up.

Another problem, both economic and strategic at the same time, is a high likelihood of increased tension in relations with Turkey. This is a problem of war.

The site Focus.de An interview with Abdel Mottaleb El Husseini (Abdel Mottaleb El-Husseini), a specialist in the Middle East.

The expert is convinced that Americans today have a “low profile” on Syria. And this “vacuum” in foreign policy will only intensify with the arrival of Mr. Trump in the White House. So there can be big changes in the Middle East. Their initiators will be "local actors."

Here are briefly expert predictions. Egypt will withdraw from the alliance with Saudi Arabia. It will gradually lose its leading position in the Arab world. See an opportunity to expand the influence of Iran. President Assad in Syria no longer feels completely isolated, since Russia wants to strengthen its position in the region. And here is another player: Turkey actively intervenes in the Syrian conflict. Together, this is an "explosive mixture."

The worst thing here is the threat of confrontation between Turkey and Russia. If Erdogan took advantage of the situation and intends to get even with the Kurds and redraw the borders, Putin is unlikely to approve such expansionist plans. Found a scythe on a stone: Erdogan has long wished to overthrow Assad, but Putin supports him.

In this scenario, el-Husseini is waiting for a confrontation between Russia and Turkey "at any moment." The expert is confident that the Russians will not tolerate the expansion of Turkey.

Another prediction: el Husseini doubts that NATO will join in this war and will support the Turks. The West has never danced to the tune of Ankara, and now it will not. Turkey was not attacked, she went on the attack. Erdogan, the expert considers utopian, who imagines himself the creator of the "great Turkish empire" and overestimated himself. With the new war, that fragile minimum of stability in the region, which is still preserved, will be destroyed.

Meanwhile, the Russian theme is still on the agenda of US lawmakers. The US House of Representatives passed a bill on intelligence services in 2017. The document contains a provision on the creation of an interdepartmental commission on "counteracting the latent influence of Russia on foreign states," notes "Lenta.ru".

The committee will include national intelligence officers, the State Department, the FBI, the ministries of defense, finance and energy.

The document was supported by 390 congressmen, all 30 voted against. The bill will now be considered in the senate.

* * *


According to a number of foreign experts, Russia observes threats from all sides and even from the inside. With a weak economy, a falling level of investment and a reduction in real incomes of the population, the country is involved in the Syrian conflict, the most dangerous threat in which is not a fight against IG (prohibited in the Russian Federation), but a likely confrontation with Turkey.

Experts do not lose hope for some stability of the Russian economy in the long term, but note the desire of the West to put more and more pressure on the Kremlin with sanctions, and in foreign policy - with propaganda and intelligence community activities.
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  1. Nitarius
    Nitarius 1 December 2016 09: 03
    +11
    every time they are surprised by such EXPERTS ... specialists in pots and toilets!
    1. jjj
      jjj 1 December 2016 09: 19
      +11
      So their system is so arranged. They seriously believe that an air-inflated financial system is a measure of success. Sadly waiting for them
    2. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 1 December 2016 09: 20
      +8
      Quote: Nitarius
      to the toilet specialists!

      Whatever specialists they are, but a conflict is possible with Turkey and God forbid war!
    3. lis-ik
      lis-ik 1 December 2016 12: 02
      +4
      For Nitarius, in general, the analytics and forecast for the economy are pretty accurate, and they coincide quite well in politics, such comments are surprising. You are either on the moon or wherever you live, but not in Russia or for years you are still not enough.
      1. gladcu2
        gladcu2 1 December 2016 22: 15
        +3
        lis-ik

        I didn’t understand this:
        Quote
        "The general economic characteristics, both then and now, were quite similar: low oil prices, an unviable economic ideology, industries were state-owned. And, of course, authoritarian rule."

        This is about the USSR. It’s strange somehow. A country that began life 70 times over 3 years from scratch, due to objective circumstances.

        And stop grinding nonsense. The USSR did not give a damn about oil prices. The country was cut off from half the world by an economic blockade. And for this reason, it had its own domestic market. Your banking system. And at least one can explain HOW? HOW could international oil prices affect the economy of the USSR?

        Someone once said stupidity about the dependence of the USSR on generally external factors, now for years without delving into particulars, everyone repeats it.
        1. Kasym
          Kasym 2 December 2016 01: 05
          +3
          I will support you. The Russian Federation is a self-sufficient country and the economy is building an appropriate one. There are electronics, aircraft, shipbuilding, engine building, etc. - but all this is more for domestic needs, and then for export. One State Reserve of the Russian Federation is worth. Or an import substitution program. They themselves did not expect how food exports exceeded arms exports. Now their engines will appear (PD-14, etc.), so they will not notice how the planes will be, like the cakes fly apart. Or those GTE for ships. So the potential is huge.
          Or how to evaluate watered. influence? The whole world is watching how Moscow at the most critical moment intervened in Syria and pulled out Assad. Even the enemies appreciated it. Such trade balances do not appreciate. Or how to evaluate shoe changes in Europe? Brexit, Moldova and Bulgaria, France and Trump on their heads. How to evaluate the anti-sanctions that have shown the importance of the Russian market for the EU? And the humanitarian aspect - only the Russian Federation can so quickly provide assistance around the world (that Syria is an example of this) ?! hi
  2. Stariknv
    Stariknv 1 December 2016 09: 16
    +7
    Russia is doing badly and the United States is a prosperous country that lives on credit that amounts to more than a dozen trillions of dollars; not every country can allow this and at the same time flourish.
    1. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 1 December 2016 09: 34
      +6
      Quote: StarikNV
      and at the same time flourish.

      This paradox always surprised me!
      1. kit_bellew
        kit_bellew 1 December 2016 14: 07
        +2
        Quote: Uncle Lee
        This paradox always surprised me!

        There is no paradox: if you borrow "all the time" and do not give back, anyone will prosper. At school, the bully-repeater will also take away the dvadat from the fry: I, they say, will give it back - and it flourishes. But! The hooligan will sooner or later finish badly if the fry picked by him unite.
        1. Uncle lee
          Uncle lee 1 December 2016 14: 17
          +3
          How rope do not twist
          And you poke your nose in the loop! what
        2. GOGENATOR
          GOGENATOR 1 December 2016 14: 55
          +2
          No need to lie here. The USA pays its debt on time. Yes, and even more so that 70% of the debt is an internal debt to its own citizens. The United States is the only superpower. Russia, due to its economy, remains a regional power.
          1. Gormenghast
            Gormenghast 1 December 2016 19: 42
            +1
            USA is the only superpower


            Bullshit. The power of the state is determined by military power. If, God forbid, a military clash between Russia and the United States occurs, then what will happen ?.

            That's right, in Russia there will be no economic consequences; they have all come.
            And the USA with a terrible roar will collapse from the pedestal, as its debt economy will not be able to function. And the US population will experience untold suffering from the lack of toilet paper. laughing

            For especially stubborn Pindolyubov there is a proverb (I explain - about the USA) - The higher the monkey climbs the tree, the better its butt is visible !.
          2. gladcu2
            gladcu2 1 December 2016 22: 23
            +2
            GOGENATOR

            Yes, what kind of economy is there.

            The crisis of the economic system. Money in the financial sector, from the consumer ned money to buy goods. Therefore, everyone has debts. But in theory, you need to repay debts, and not take new ones.

            The problem of the economy lies precisely in the fact that no one knows how to return this money to the consumer, so that he does not die in the literal sense of the word. hi

            How can one talk about positive trends at the stage of crises? Only war resolved the issue of writing off debts.
      2. HAM
        HAM 3 December 2016 15: 50
        0
        Yes, this is not a paradox, this is life due to the robbery of others.

        Insolence is the first happiness for the Yankees.
  3. Dimy4
    Dimy4 1 December 2016 09: 59
    +1
    The document was supported by 390 congressmen ...

    Uraaa, you can now knock out funding for this business, because now in all the failures you can refer to the "hand of Moscow".
  4. Gormenghast
    Gormenghast 1 December 2016 10: 25
    +6
    Aslund - derived from "a donkey".

    Depil; and if tomorrow the CBR sells at once $ 100 billion, or even 10 billion at the interbank market, and the ruble to dollar exchange rate briefly will rise to 1: 2, in favor of the ruble - is that means that Russia's GDP will become larger than US GDP? laughing The dollar is a completely arbitrary wrapper; Only infantiles, such as the indicated Donkey, can consider the state’s economic power in candy wrappers.

    By the way, one thermonuclear warhead is equivalent to $ 100 billion of GDP, since it can destroy the assets of the Oslande adversary exactly as much. am
    1. arpad
      arpad 1 December 2016 14: 46
      +1
      Quote: Gormengast
      Depil; and if tomorrow the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sells $ 100 billion at once, or even 10 billion at the interbank market, and the ruble / dollar exchange rate rises to 1: 2 for a short time, is that in favor of the ruble, will Russia’s GDP be higher than the US GDP?

      how ? It is now 10 times smaller than the United States
      Quote: Gormengast
      The dollar is a completely arbitrary wrapper;

      What do you say ? Well then, for this conditional candy wrapper they give as much as 60+ full-fledged rubles?

      Quote: Gormengast
      By the way, one thermonuclear warhead is equivalent to $ 100 billion of GDP, since it can destroy just as much property of the Oslande adversary

      why so little?
      I wonder how much the bullet will cost - the killer - well, let's say Buffett wink (as an example)
      1. Gormenghast
        Gormenghast 1 December 2016 19: 50
        +1
        how ? It is now 10 times smaller than the United States


        Naturally - the exchange rate will increase by $ 2 per ruble. Briefly. We divide (as donkeys do) the ruble GDP by the high dollar exchange rate and - bingo - we get the GDP in dollars nominally a lot more than the USA. Therefore, smart people consider purchasing power parity, rather than face value. and, accordingly, Russia's GDP fell by several percent, and not from 2,1 trillion to 1,1 trillion - as Donkey writes. Therefore, I affirm that he is a Donkey.

        What do you say ? Well then, for this conditional candy wrapper they give as much as 60+ full-fledged rubles?


        But what do thieves generally take away their values ​​for free? Because thieves. Like the USA. And like every thief, they will be punished.

        why so little?


        The figure is conditional. But imagine that the Pen-Dos achieved their goal, and Russia split into 20 republics. Then in our Ural republic there will be a Tagil division with unpaved "Yars" - how much will their pen-dos be bought, what do you think? am And they will redeem, because of the 20 specific princes there are likely to be (just according to the theory of probability) several Zhirinovsikhs.
    2. GOGENATOR
      GOGENATOR 1 December 2016 14: 59
      0
      No need to lie here. The USA pays its debt on time. Moreover, 70% of the debt is an internal debt to its own citizens. The United States is the only superpower. Russia remains a regional power because of its economy. US budget 4 trillion dollars, budget Russia’s 250 billion dollars. Russia is economically insignificant compared to the United States.
      1. fif21
        fif21 1 December 2016 16: 49
        +1
        Quote: GOGENATOR
        The US budget is 4 trillion dollars, the budget of Russia is 250 billion dollars. Russia is economically insignificant for

        The USA can print candy wrappers as much as it wants lol And in the Russian Federation they pay not in dollars but in rubles. Compare the cost of the F-35 and MIG 29.
      2. fif21
        fif21 1 December 2016 16: 53
        +2
        Quote: GOGENATOR
        No need to lie here. USA pays its debt on time

        While paying, including the printing press. A giant pyramid (bubble) is growing. And who will pay for it when it bursts? - That's right - investors in the US public debt hi
      3. Gormenghast
        Gormenghast 1 December 2016 19: 53
        +1
        Nonsense. The United States pays nothing to anyone. Payment is the transfer of equivalent, that is, something that has a constant stable value. The wrappers have no value; only have a fraudulent price. Therefore, the US is a crook.
      4. Sagan_bator
        Sagan_bator 2 December 2016 17: 58
        0
        Gogenator, why are you trying to protect the United States on a Russian site? Okay, everyone has their own point of view.
        But keep in mind that the United States was in a financial crisis in the 1970s, which could be described as default. Then they completely abandoned the gold content of the dollar. But the Soviet Union could well finish them off, and in the 1980s it would be very bad to live in the USA.
        But back to today's day. Today, the USA is a soap bubble. Puffed defense industry, puffed economy. The growth of unemployment, all in debt ea and in general, imperial overstrain.
    3. Indifference
      Indifference 1 December 2016 18: 38
      +2
      That's how smart you need to be to get the entire banking system hooked on "candy wrappers" - but we must be feeble-minded to buy and recalculate our budget with an eye to them !!! - And our great and mighty ruble is supported by oil and gold and all, all, no one and in x ..... Vost did not bite))) Why should I admit myself that I say a donkey?
  5. knn54
    knn54 1 December 2016 10: 28
    +1
    What the Jewish joke remembered:
    -Izya, well, you and Mr. ... n.
    - Oh, Monya. You might think that you are a white, fluffy ball ...
    PS And if specifically, fools and roads.
  6. trantor
    trantor 1 December 2016 11: 12
    +3
    What is there to argue? With such a government and its economic policy (more precisely, its absence) and such personnel decisions of the President, we spit on and forget about external factors. We can handle it ourselves. We’ll ruin everything ahead of schedule.
  7. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 1 December 2016 11: 48
    +3
    publicist Anders Aslund

    Typical ranting of another Western "specialist" on Russia. He is not even aware that the abbreviation KGB has not existed since 91. But this is probably not necessary, the main thing is that he was in Moscow in 1983, which means he knows absolutely everything about Russia.
    1. Gormenghast
      Gormenghast 1 December 2016 12: 30
      +1
      No, he knows that Putin is the head of the KGB, which means that there is a KGB. laughing wassat
      1. Sagan_bator
        Sagan_bator 2 December 2016 17: 59
        +1
        It’s just for the sake of solidity that the FSB is called the old name of the KGB. But seriously, Putin was the director of the FSB.
  8. Alexey-74
    Alexey-74 1 December 2016 12: 48
    +2
    Oh, another special in Russia. Guys, draw conclusions from the results of the story. Our internal problems are our problems, and the external problems of Russia are your problems.
  9. Dax
    Dax 1 December 2016 14: 35
    +1
    You read the "enlightened": a stupid person in a moron, we are not much smarter by an example, but why bastards live better than us financially?
    1. arpad
      arpad 1 December 2016 14: 39
      +3
      Quote: Dax
      You read the "enlightened": a stupid person in a moron, we are not much smarter by an example, but why bastards live better than us financially?

      because, talent must be hungry laughing
    2. Skubudu
      Skubudu 1 December 2016 15: 54
      +2
      Quote: Dax
      You read the "enlightened": a stupid person in a moron, we are not much smarter by an example, but why bastards live better than us financially?

      Do not speak for all "Us" speak for yourself.
  10. McLuha-MacLeod
    McLuha-MacLeod 1 December 2016 15: 18
    +1
    We don’t need to worry about this mura. This is not written to us, but to the western eared ones, They will eat everything with their ears
  11. Siberian1965
    Siberian1965 1 December 2016 16: 07
    +3
    Quote: GOGENATOR
    No need to lie here. The USA pays its debt on time. Yes, and even more so that 70% of the debt is an internal debt to its own citizens. The United States is the only superpower. Russia, due to its economy, remains a regional power.

    I don’t understand the jugglers in terms. For me personally ... who calls Russia what. And GDP these definitions are similar to the same place. Where, in what "democratic" quotation books there are decoding of the terms "regional" or "over". Rave. The Westerners picked up on the ratings to play war. And if you are simply nay .. or rating. In my opinion, Russia and unfortunately the states in this world do what they see fit, and the rest do what they will allow. There is also China, but he has not yet felt his strength, or maybe in the east he is waiting for the carcass of the states to be carried by. And economics is a technical matter, i.e. acquired. What I'm sure of is that the su ... and from Brussels and Washington are completely uninterested in my welfare. And buy a country for a cheap divorce - they say, do it, then I'll give you candy. This is for suckers - they will not give it. The drunk and the marked Judas did whatever the Westerners wanted - the result was a ruined country. Time will tell. The economy is not a constant - it is a changing thing, but greatness is in the genes. Bomzhara with money on the great does not pull, but the prince in rags is .... prince.
  12. fif21
    fif21 1 December 2016 16: 35
    +1
    Let them continue to think so laughing Russia is an iceberg, what they see is its peak, and what is under water? request The shadow economy of the Russian Federation (8 lards in the apartment of the colonel wassat 3 lard at the governor wassat ) 510 lard in the stash of the state wassat and 3 times more stuffed in "money-boxes" from the lads. And if the state still takes over the trade in resources and sets prices for them in the Russian Federation, and not at the London TSB, what will happen then? Expert - another dunno of Russia laughing The war of Turkey and Russia, and maybe Iran, Syria and Turkey? In Syria, Russia eliminates the threat to itself from ISIS, Turkey does not pose a threat to Russia. request The oversaturated European market will receive only raw materials from the Russian Federation, and soon processed raw materials. Chinese, Indian, Egyptian, Korean ... the product market for the Russian Federation is open! And the domestic market will only grow with an increase in purchasing power. There are problems, but who does not have them? hi
    1. arpad
      arpad 1 December 2016 16: 42
      +3
      Quote: fif21
      And if the state still takes control of the trade in resources and prices for them will be set in the Russian Federation, and not on the London TSB, then what will happen?

      Nothing will happen - Russia cannot dictate prices for any raw materials.
      Quote: fif21
      In Syria, Russia eliminates ISIS threat to itself, Turkey does not pose a threat to Russia

      Well, this is so far the interests have not crossed for the most part. and they have already crossed paths more than once.

      Quote: fif21
      The oversaturated European market will receive only raw materials from the Russian Federation, and soon processed raw materials.

      if the market is oversaturated, then what kind of price dictate can one talk about?
      Quote: fif21
      Chinese, Indian, Egyptian, Korean ... the product market for the Russian Federation is open!

      sure . are you just going to sell?
      Quote: fif21
      And the domestic market will only grow with an increase in purchasing power.

      How to increase purchasing power?
  13. Andrei946
    Andrei946 1 December 2016 16: 59
    0
    unsustainable economic ideology
    Correctly noticed and true and causal relationship traced correctly
    Putin became involved in a conflict in eastern Ukraine. There he did not become a winner, even a small one. Eastern Ukraine is “a failure in foreign policy, and it testifies that Russia, which has military superiority over its neighbors, cannot afford to wage long wars”
    The "expert" clearly does not see beyond his own nose. The inertia of the processes in Ukraine is still going on, but this does not mean that Russia has lost this battle.
    And now, when Donald Trump defeated the United States, which created a “power vacuum” in Washington,
    I do not agree. There can be no power vacuum in the United States. Just another group of elites comes to power, and another group leaves the presidium in the hall. They do not want to...
  14. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 1 December 2016 20: 13
    +1
    Quote: Dax
    but why are bastards materially better than us?
    Reply Quote

    Because only that they skillfully breed suckers. Only due to fraud and fraud. Or physically destroyed. Amero-animals still have power.
    If our authorities were nationally oriented and happy for the State, they would have long been settled with candy wrappers and other Western diarrhea.
    To keep the loot in omerzikovsovyh papers this is scum and idiocy in one bottle. All the ranting about the benefits of such investments do not stand up to criticism, only a frank down can believe in this madness.
  15. den-protector
    den-protector 3 December 2016 14: 29
    +1
    External threats are clear and visible. The real internal threats to Russia are the growing possibility of a social explosion, especially against the background of clumsy attempts by certain forces to "rally" the population into a kind of community called the "Russian nation" and obsessive attempts to rehabilitate the white movement, attempts to "reconcile" white and red in order to legalize the blatant social inequality, property stratification. The impression is that this is done on purpose in order to undermine society. So it is not far before the revolution, civil war or riots. What is needed is not a cosmetic repair of the political and social system, but a transition to a new state system - socialism (taking into account the mistakes of the Soviet Union), the nationalization of strategic sectors of the economy, the elimination of private ownership of the means of production. It is necessary to change the ideology (not superficial, official-patriotic), the state system, the mobilization economy and the preparation of the country for a possible global war. Perhaps only a blind man does not see the growing possibility of such a war. We need to cleanse society from top to bottom. And such large-scale events are possible only under socialism, if the leader of the country and his team have political will. They came up with the Day of National Unity as opposed to November 7. What and with whom the hell is unity? What can unite an ordinary person and a commerce person, a snickering bureaucrat or a representative of the "creative intelligentsia." Normal people can only be united by truth and justice. And the attitude towards them among the above categories of the population of Russia is very different. And the bulk of young people (up to 30 years old) do not care at all, the "nestlings" of J. Soros managed to grow future efficient managers with the help of a zombie box and other media. Lenin's signs of a revolutionary situation are evident. This so-called elite without blood will never part with the back-breaking labor they have acquired. The well-known Russian question arises: who is to blame and what to do?
  16. Dinko
    Dinko 3 December 2016 16: 10
    0
    This expert is of course a rare turkey. Especially when he says that we lost with Ukraine, forgetting how Obama almost crap one's pants when we returned Crimea! And that Russia can’t wage a long war is also complete nonsense, especially considering how many bombs and missiles were fired by American friends in Syria.