Military Review

2020 year as a certain milestone for the Russian defense industry

In one of his speeches the other day, our president once again reminded the representatives of the military-industrial complex that the rearmament program was designed for the 2020 year and that it is worthwhile to treat budget funds properly, so that later ...

And by the way, what then?

In general, the year 2020 looks like such a foreign one, after which everything will evolve according to some other scenario.

It seemed to me personally that all the speeches at the series of meetings with representatives of the Ministry of Defense and the defense industry complex are reduced to one. Naturally, to the money. And here I see some kind of hint from the president that the state defense order is in the state defense order, but, first, it must be executed properly, secondly - not to steal, thirdly - to think about the day tomorrow.

Each of the three points is important.

Let's talk a little about this topic. Yes, the stagnation caused by the past years of “democratic development” of our country seems to be overcome in the part that concerns the army. Fact. New types of weapons are not only being developed, they still really go to the troops. Not as test samples, but as in service.

However, all the way we flew into a crisis. Both global and personally organized for us. And here began the very "movements" that could not please the representatives of the defense industry complex. This is primarily a reduction in the release of new species. weapons.

Examples are known to all. This T-50, and "Armata", which will go into service, but not in the quantities in which it was originally announced.

The question why, even somewhat tactless, or something. Just not enough money.

The amounts that the Ministry of Defense and the defense industry would like to spend on the development and equipment of our army are really too heavy for the country's economy.

But both the Ministry of Defense and the design bureaus and defense companies are right that these amounts are necessary to maintain Russia's defense capability.

The question is not put so that the costs must be cut. It is clear that they have already been cut, and cut very weak. And, apparently, will be cut further. The question is posed differently. It is most efficient and painless for the country to ensure that both wolves (MO and MIC) are full and the sheep are safe. Who I mean by sheep, I hope, is understandable.

In essence, one should not think about how to spend money economically, but how to raise the economy itself. If Russia, that is, we doubled the GDP (as many people spoke about from high tribunes and in front of cameras), then there would be nothing to save. Any amount would be afford. But alas, today we have what we have.

Perhaps there is a way out. About this, too, was said enough, but the cart, as usual, is still there. But everything, on the one hand, is quite simple, on the other hand, it will look like a revolution.

Is it possible to compare with the revolution such things as the nationalization of the fuel and energy complex, heavy industry and mechanical engineering? Is complete. And it seems utterly, for it provides exactly what happened in the 1917 year, only with the difference that everything distributed, more precisely, privatized, is required to be returned back to the state.

And today, much of what the country earns does not go into its budget, but feeds a dozen oligarchs. Alas, but the reality of today.

No less important is the development of the Russian light industry, which has been severely curtailed in favor of import manufacturers. Specifically - the production of goods for the population. It is difficult, but you can imagine how much fully-fledged Russian rubles are converted into at least full-fledged dollars and euros and go abroad through imported goods and services.

And in this, our defense enterprises can play a very real role. Let's not talk about the completely miserable Gorbachev program of "conversion", it is better to recall the Soviet system of "cover" when the military enterprises produced quite normal for that time televisions, receivers, tape recorders, electric stoves, hair dryers, mixers and so on.

There is another point voiced by Putin, which I have already mentioned. About the correct use of funds. I don’t want to say that our MIC and MO, no matter how much they feed from the budget, everything will be small, no. But there are moments when the breadth in spending causes, if not embitternment, then wonder exactly.

But from Soviet times, the defense industry complex didn’t adapt to market conditions so well. Without state order and foreign trade to survive is unrealistic. Export is great, but there is a thin moment here. Not all that is produced can be sent to allies and partners, even for decent money.

That is why 2020, probably, not only in my minds sat down not only as a calendar date, but also as a point of a possible new starting point. Of course, such a moment when we completely renew the aircraft fleet, the fleet of armored vehicles, complete the construction of all mortgaged ships, it is unlikely to come at all, because technology does not last forever. Although about tanks, for example, you can't say that.

If you simply imagine that all the requests of the Ministry of Defense have been fulfilled and the state will no longer need to purchase so many weapons. What will come then?

I think this is a nightmare for many. Yes, as I said, this is unlikely to happen, but still.

There will be problems. Even despite the fact that our weapons today are very popular in the world, and many are ready to buy them. But external affairs are one thing, and internal affairs are completely different. And it is worth noting that the civilian sector in defense enterprises is virtually completely destroyed.

And this is largely the fault of the state itself.

One of the participants in the meeting went to the camera and asked Putin: “What are we to release the pots again?”

I do not know what is best. Set up the production of pans, if they are in demand from the Russians, or still buy them in China. For dollars.

I digress a little. I wanted to give myself a cast cauldron for a long time. I had to go to the other end of the city, because I did not want to take the Chinese. Well, they don’t look like Kazan, thank God, I know how a real Kazan should look like. Bought. I was surprised to see on the label: "Izhstal", the city of Izhevsk. There pans do not bother anyone. Nicely.

The situation is such that hope for a state order, but do not commit it yourself. Examples? Excuse me Omsktransmash. We wrote about the situation at the factory, when mass cuts of people began, because there was no work. But everything, fortunately, has changed, and the plant is working. How long is the question!

Today, so far (I will stress) everything is more or less adjusted. There is a work. And tomorrow? And after 2020?

Let me remind you that our airlines (and some even with state participation) still carry passengers on Boeing and Airbus and are not in a hurry to order Russian aircraft.

Let's be honest: Russia actually does not have its own trading fleetand meanwhile, the merchant fleet in many countries was the Navy's first reserve. Worth recalling stories the origin of the famous German raiders in world wars?

And we, forgive, to provide the Olympics and the Crimea drove Turkish and Greek ferries. To ensure deliveries to Syria, we charter the ships in Turkey ...

Can the defense industry become the cornerstone on which our economy can firmly establish itself?

The answer is one: of course, yes.

But for this, forgive us, our government and our central bank seem to be obliged, yes, they MUST send money not to buy US debt notes, not to keep the mythical inflation and not to support the dollar.

It is necessary to develop domestic production and start with what remains. From the enterprises of the military-industrial complex, if only because they are for the most part under state control. And this can ensure proper control over both quality and honesty.

In general, it is worth taking a closer look at what Putin sometimes says. The results are such ... extraordinary.

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  1. Bureaucrat
    Bureaucrat 17 November 2016 05: 54
    Good article, the author voiced the necessary things. Previously, all tanks were built only at tractor and locomotive plants. And about the civilian fleet, not in the eyebrow, but in the eye.
    I took Chelyabinsky Kazan.
    1. siberalt
      siberalt 17 November 2016 08: 31
      When they make plans for more than 10 years, then all this reminds of the final construction of communism, which will be seen by those who are now 20. tongue At the same time, those who are twenty will not forget this. Yes, only there will be no one to ask. laughing
      1. Botanologist
        Botanologist 17 November 2016 14: 01
        If after 20 of the year there will be a reduction, then for the army and especially the fleet it will be .... sad. By the 20 year, we will have in operation from the strength of 350 units of the new Su 30 - 34 - 35, about 700 helicopters. In the fleet, in general, from new deliveries of 6 frigates (of which 3 11356), 10 corvettes, maybe a dozen Buyanov, according to 5 Karakurt and patrolmen. Well, the sub-melting is 10 Varshavyanka and Yasen three.
        This is without SNF.
        And what local conflicts can we handle?
  2. Lumumba
    Lumumba 17 November 2016 06: 18
    Everything is actually very commonplace.

    The global world crisis as it began, it did not end. Therefore, the struggle for the remaining unprocessed world resources is getting angrier every year. And it has finally begun to reach our "elite" that if they cannot protect the country's resources from foreign vultures, then these vultures will simply take it and take it away by force. At the same time, they will no longer agree and buy up as before, since due to the crisis, the available resources are reduced, the dollar is weakening and there is no longer enough pie for everyone.

    The interests of the people do not play any role here. Well, perhaps as a calculated "resource" on paper. Here is such a cynical truth.
    1. Samarin
      Samarin 17 November 2016 08: 59
      Quote: Lumumba
      The global world crisis began as it did not end

      What other crisis, huh? where is your crisis there?
    2. ava09
      ava09 17 November 2016 09: 18
      (c) The global global crisis as it began, so it did not end (c)
      "Crisis" is an objective concept; it does not begin or end by itself. The fundamental principle of capitalism is the concentration of capital, on which the cyclical crises so necessary for the owners of "money" are based. The flock should be fattened before shearing and skinning the sheep. The Zion wanderers, the banksters and corporatocrats, follow the same rules. They revive the economic activity of the "population", making money available, and when the "herd" creates a certain amount of goods due to increased business activity, it is time to "concentrate capital". This is the crisis. After all, it is not for nothing that those who write the rules of the game of "capitalism" get richer during the crisis, taking away depreciated material wealth ...
    3. Corsair
      Corsair 17 November 2016 10: 38
      Quote: Lumumba
      The interests of the people do not play any role here. Well, perhaps as a calculated "resource" on paper.

      Well, well - and whoever you think will protect these very resources from seizure, partly they are observing interests, sir.
      The people will protect, not the oligarchs themselves, well, to make up for losses if something happens, and you need to feed the slaves a little bit and give them water to dress, so as not to become extinct, well, more spectacular and more spectacular spectacles, so that evil thoughts have something to occupy (example - 70 % of airtime - TV shows and all kinds of shows).
    4. N100
      N100 17 November 2016 11: 25
      At the same time, they will no longer agree and buy up as before, because due to the crisis, available resources are being reduced, the dollar is weakening and it is no longer enough for all the pies.

      And what is a crisis? The fact is that the Western elite has grown up a new generation of offspring and they need gifts for adulthood, not just money that they will spend or spend the wrong money, since the Shamsuarovs in Anglo-America are 95% almost like in the Russian Federation, but a really working business. And here Alcapone’s problems and methods don’t work, they’ll send them to .. three letters and that’s all ...., for this the members of the elite CJSC club come to a very original solution, arrange a crisis by agreement, and bankrupt the concerns they like, then they buy them for nothing (Brand, sales analytics, patent packages and give to their children. It's called a free market or sheep shearing (rams) in their language.
    5. legkostup
      legkostup 17 November 2016 11: 37
      There is no global crisis. Listen to more propaganda.
      1. St Petrov
        St Petrov 17 November 2016 13: 53
        and the state debt of Western countries, we also draw in the Kremlin?

        ec of God's chosen ones as simple as that) I would joke why you don’t have a crisis, but somehow it’s already beaten

        There is no crisis, yeah. especially at the Baltic whiskers in chocolate. What am I talking about the Baltic states - you can talk about Japan or Amsterdam. It looks so cool with the guys, until you start turning on your head

        Denmark announced that it would not sell government debt, after which interest rates fell sharply. Here are just the total volume of corporate, private, banking and public debt of the country has already exceeded 302%. Traditional for the Scandinavian countries remains the problem of a high level of loans in the mortgage sector. In Denmark, this is almost 90% of GDP.

        Spain: 313%

        Spain became one of the unpleasant surprises when a debt crisis erupted in Europe. Spanish politicians, representatives of one of the most powerful economies in the region, also lined up for preferential loans with the Greeks and Irish. Mortgage debt reaches 651 billion euros, but in general we are talking about 313% of GDP. After the real estate bubble burst, the debt situation is rapidly deteriorating.

        Greece: 317%

        Greece lived beyond its means for many years. Membership in the eurozone made it possible to borrow money cheaply and spend it on social programs. As a result, the bubble burst, and Athens was forced to ask for help. Debt reduction is out of the question. First you need to at least stabilize the economy and deal with social tension. Greeks used to live well. Result: total debt of 317% of GDP.

        Netherlands: 325%

        The Dutch economy can be called exemplary: the country focuses on services and exports, demonstrates one of the best GDP per capita in the world (more than $ 47 thousand) and can be very cheap. That's just the borrowing of households has crossed all borders, and economic growth leaves much to be desired, and in such a situation, the overall level of debt is growing steadily.

        Japan: 400%

        Japan is the absolute champion in public debt, which has long exceeded 200% of GDP. Households are not in a hurry to take new loans, but the government is still actively taking the opportunity to borrow cheaply due to its high credit rating. Bonds are popular among the population. But slow inflation and weak economic growth do not add to Japan's health.

        here it is written how there is no crisis in the world

        Well, against this background, Russia with the economy torn to shreds

  3. Nix1986
    Nix1986 17 November 2016 07: 26
    Nationalization is certainly good, but the main question is, do we have competent state managers? Maybe there is, but 99% of them are extremely few, and the second question, you need to be sure that this manager will not engage in national craft, that is, corruption. I’m personally not a nationalist, and I don’t care if we don’t have competent managers, then we invite the Varangians, I don’t care, a Negro, a Chinese or an Indian, the main thing is to cope with the work. But here is the moment, was Bo Anderson at the post in the VAZ and where is he now ?! Although the uncle is competent and the first car is not ashamed of since the beginning of the 90s. In general, as in any case, there are many pitfalls in nationalization, both inherent in world practice and growing out of our national characteristics.
    1. kit_bellew
      kit_bellew 17 November 2016 07: 45
      Quote: Nix1986
      Nationalization is certainly good, but the main question is, do we have competent state managers?

      Become literate the manager manager is not the most cunning science, if you get rid of such variables in the equations as the selfish interests of ministers, governors and other deputies and secretaries. Right now, the Ulyukaev’s case will clearly show their degree of untouchability. If the hand is still washed, nationalize, do not nationalize - not a damn thing will change.
      1. Nix1986
        Nix1986 17 November 2016 07: 49
        Believe me, this is a tricky science. At a minimum, they should be prepared for the fact that such a concept as free time becomes the gift that you want to receive for any holiday, you have to sacrifice a lot. This is if you really do business, as if this is your business.
      2. N100
        N100 17 November 2016 12: 01
        Becoming a competent manager is not the most cunning science if you get rid of such variables in equations as the selfish interests of ministers, governors and other deputies and secretaries

        Now the concept of a specialist-production worker is replaced by the concept of a good negotiator with contacts ........ the so-called walker ..... but knowledge and specialization is not the second but somewhere tenth of the quality of a manager. So we have nanovenics, a simple example of Rusnano, if the red detsetsel instead (x ... uh ... delight ... bones) I took it and bought a dilapidated company for the production of motherboards such as Abit, etc. .. and that’s it ... then buy obsolete CPU intel atom, VIA C3, etc. ONE ONE $ 1 FOR A BUCKET. Several factories would work in three shifts releasing from ATMs to mobile payment terminals. Boards for high-performance PCs for any purpose; BOARDS for automated lines from the food industry to household chemicals.
        Since domestic boards are therefore with a 100% guarantee that without bookmarks, the demand would be for all CIS countries. Over time, Zelenograd would have come up with its own chipset for Intel AMD CPUs, but in the process of distributing domestic CPUs with Elbrus architecture, the country would have put such a manager for 200 years in life.
    2. NordUral
      NordUral 17 November 2016 09: 48
      We must try to restore a good habit to deal with such a frontal place in Moscow. I think that those who want to steal will sharply decrease. In general, the country needs a radical restructuring towards the return of the country's social structure. How to solve this issue, everything else will follow.
    3. N100
      N100 17 November 2016 11: 38
      Do we have competent state managers?

      And what is a competent manager?
      I mean the manager?
      Or is it still a specialist? able to competently select employees in the personnel department, an analyst of sales markets, on which the implementation of production capacities of the enterprise is possible (energy efficiency of equipment, wear and type of machine tools of the enterprise and their flexibility during re-profiling)
      1. Nix1986
        Nix1986 17 November 2016 13: 36
        We have poorly poor specialists, there are no competent managers / managers who can find a niche for the product, find buyers, find staff, ensure the fulfillment of obligations, and ensure the further development of the enterprise. A great specialist / good manager is not synonymous. They have different tasks.
  4. McLuha-MacLeod
    McLuha-MacLeod 17 November 2016 08: 32
    Why should we talk about this? What are we blind kittens? Moscow needs to be filled up with these requests, otherwise it has gone far from reality. In general, it’s as if another country
  5. V.ic
    V.ic 17 November 2016 08: 38
    The article says everything correctly. But! The work of the "defense industry" is credited by the state under the state defense order. I doubt that the state will lend to the production of "pots and teapots". Banks in the Russian Federation (well, supposedly "Russian") hold the industry not only by the throat, but also in other, more painful places. T.N. "long" loans will not be given! The well-known formula of Kyrly Myrla "commodity-money-commodity" has long been transformed by them into a more acceptable formula for them "money-commodity-money", better suited for sucking out finances from the Russian Federation.
    1. NordUral
      NordUral 17 November 2016 09: 50
      Stop procrastinating these pots! The military-industrial complex, along with the main products, should produce what the country lacks now - machine tools, and this equipment is high-tech and it is worthy of lending.
      1. V.ic
        V.ic 17 November 2016 10: 35
        Quote: NordUral
        Stop procrastinating these pots!

        That's right, the pots need to be washed! am
  6. ghby
    ghby 17 November 2016 09: 26
    That is why 2020, probably, was not only in my brain, not only the calendar date, but also the point of a possible new reference.
    yeah, they will bring down the buck, therefore rearmament by then is necessary, well, as a guarantee of the absence of a physical solution to the global issue.
  7. Maxim Sheludyakov
    Maxim Sheludyakov 17 November 2016 09: 33
    What to do with young "specialists" brought up in fat times ....? Sometimes the hair stands on end when you watch the technologist inscribe a part into the workpiece, in which at least 4 of them will be removed! At the enterprises of the military-industrial complex, this is rolling.
  8. NordUral
    NordUral 17 November 2016 09: 39
    The article is correct in the state of affairs of the present. But who said that this present does not need to be changed? Change the attitude to your own means of payment - the ruble, change the attitude to the ruble mass. To change the attitude towards public property, which suddenly became not popular in the 90s (yesterday I heard from the mailbox that someone Gutsiev or Gutsiriev was selling oil fields to some oil company, which also belonged to some types - is that damn it ?!).
    So much needs to be changed in our Danish kingdom so that the leaders of the agro-industrial complex do not scratch their turnips and think, sighing bitterly, how to survive with these liberals in power.
  9. Victor N
    Victor N 17 November 2016 09: 39
    The "elite of technocracy" from the military-industrial complex had already demonstrated their inability to solve economic problems: enterprises were idle, and hammers, screwdrivers, and screws from Turkey and China were sold in the markets.
  10. Alexey-74
    Alexey-74 17 November 2016 10: 11
    Why look so far? We really don’t know what will happen in a year or two .... and before the 20s, so much more water will drain, so much will change ........ we know for sure one thing - there is less money left, and it’s clear that In addition to the military-industrial complex, Russia still has an economy that also needs to be developed, and this is another story.
  11. uskrabut
    uskrabut 17 November 2016 13: 34
    "But for this, excuse me, our government and our relatively seemingly central bank are obliged, yes, OBLIGED to direct money not to purchase US debt papers, not to keep mythical inflation and not to maintain the dollar rate"

    This must be written on the wall in the offices of Siluanov and Nabiulina, but Ulyukaev no longer needs it (he was lucky)
  12. Ustinov 055 055
    Ustinov 055 055 17 November 2016 13: 49
    Quote: V.ic
    The article says everything correctly. But! The work of the "defense industry" is credited by the state under the state defense order. I doubt that the state will lend to the production of "pots and teapots". Banks in the Russian Federation (well, supposedly "Russian") hold the industry not only by the throat, but also in other, more painful places. T.N. "long" loans will not be given! The well-known formula of Kyrly Myrla "commodity-money-commodity" has long been transformed by them into a more acceptable formula for them "money-commodity-money", better suited for sucking out finances from the Russian Federation.

    My friend the FSB colonel said that the most terrible bandits in Russia are Bankers, they sell money and not goods.
    1. V.ic
      V.ic 17 November 2016 20: 04
      Quote: Ustinov 055 055
      Bankers, they sell money and not goods.

      The bankers have removed the "commodity" component from the formula and "their" formula has degenerated into an axiom: money-margin-money (but you don't tell anyone about this!).
  13. Philip Staros
    Philip Staros 20 November 2016 16: 57
    What was it?!!!