United grouping of troops in the Caucasus. Perspectives and goals
"To accept the proposal of the Government of the Russian Federation to sign an agreement between the Russian Federation and Armenia on the Joint Grouping of troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation".
The grouping is created to ensure the "security of the parties in the Caucasus region of collective security." Technically, interaction will be carried out through the ministries of defense of both countries. To submit, accordingly, to the Chief of the General Staff of the Republic of Armenia. And in the event of a military danger and other possible "emergency situations", the Commander of the troops of the Southern Military District of the Defense Ministry of the Russian Federation may assume command. The candidacy of a particular group commander will be coordinated jointly by the presidents of Russia and Armenia.
However, the units and formations that make up the grouping will be provided and financed at the expense of the funds of the states to which their armies belong. Simply put, the logistical support, armament, means of amplification and other critical aspects remain with the states. Russia is not going to re-equip the Armenian army at its own expense.
The composition of the future group is interesting. But it is too early to speak specifically on this issue. The official document says so little about it. Only that the composition of the combined forces will be determined by the Ministries of Defense of Russia and Armenia.
And finally: the contract term is defined in 5 years. However, an automatic extension is provided without additional approvals in case both parties agree on this extension.
Already today, a campaign has begun in the media of several countries to discredit the future treaty. The main leitmotif of this campaign was the "aggressiveness of Russia" and "the desire to change the balance of power in the Caucasus in their favor." By the way, for some reason I do not see anything wrong in the fact that Russia pursues a foreign policy that is beneficial ... to Russia. Would rather be surprised if it were not so.
It is in the light of the raised "hype" that I propose to consider the situation in the region.
To further understand the chain of reasoning, it is necessary to learn that Armenia is not just a partner of Russia in the region. Armenia is our strategic partner. In addition, Armenia is a member of the CIS, a member of the EEU. But, most importantly, Armenia is one of the basic states of the CSTO.
Further, it is necessary to understand that the security of Armenia and the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh are different things. Many people mistakenly believe that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Armenia. However, in fact, this is still a “gray zone”. Unrecognized state. Therefore, it makes no sense to talk about the influence of the group on the solution of this issue.
If we recall the very recent past, more precisely, the spring exacerbation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, we get an interesting picture. Strategic partner Armenia is at war with simply partner Azerbaijan. And a partner stands next to it in the future - Georgia. It was then that the "moans" of some "patriotic cheers" about the "stillborn" CSTO were heard for the first time. We were supposedly obliged to help the Armenians defeat the Azerbaijani army. The answer to these moans is given above.
Talk about creating a group in the region has been going on for a long time. Moreover, there were repeated attempts to push this idea through the CSTO. However, membership in the organization of both Armenia and Azerbaijan made the idea irrelevant. But Baku’s withdrawal from the CSTO and subsequent events just actualized the creation of joint forces.
Armenia is of great importance for us today. Not only as a partner in the region, but also as a state that provides the possible directions for the input-output of our forces further. The creation of a group of Russian videoconferencing in Syria has made Armenia a state, in which peace and security are now vital for us. The war in Armenia will mean war in the rear of our troops.
I understand perfectly well that both Yerevan and Baku conduct an "independent" foreign policy. And I also perfectly understand that the successes of our VKS in Syria, as they were a huge pain in the butt of the coalition, remain so. No one will change the attitude to our successes, to the successes of Assad, and even to Assad himself. Yes, and Russia as it was, and remained, the number one enemy.
Trump is not yet president. Yes, and talk about what and how will be with his arrival, prematurely. But expect some surprises necessary. Such a surprise could be the occurrence of the next military confrontation in Armenia. Strategically, such a conflict would be a great diversion.
I knowingly mentioned the "spring aggravation." Today in Baku they often talk about victory in that "war". Uri-patriots demand that the government and the president “put the squeeze on” Karabakh. But what really? And in fact, the victory of Baku is “Pyrrhic”. Through the efforts of John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov in Vienna and St. Petersburg, an agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh was developed and signed. On the line of confrontation should appear peacekeepers and a monitoring system. This means that the conflict from the sphere of military confrontation completely goes into the sphere of diplomacy.
Thus, the creation of a unified grouping can be considered as a preventive measure for the "cooling" of hot Baku heads. Maybe it will shut up some particularly belligerent mouths in Azerbaijan.
So, if we consider the region from a politico-military point of view, the following picture is obtained. The danger of terrorist organizations exists. The main routes of entry into the territory of the CIS and Russia are also known. Moreover, the scale of military operations against terrorists in Syria and Iraq will force the latter to go to third countries.
We have so far considered only the possibility of a “hidden” return of terrorists to their homes. And to Russia, and to Europe, and to Central Asia. And the possibility of a breakthrough in the same Armenia was not considered? What can oppose the courageous, but not having experience of serious fights, the Armenian army to a large group of terrorists?
The first "frontier of defense" of Russia against terrorism today is our videoconferencing system in Syria. It is they who today "utilize" the most odious supporters of ISIS (banned in Russia). It is they who control the movement of these gangs on the territory of Syria and neighboring states.
But the role of the “second frontier” will be performed by the group in Armenia. By the way, it is precisely this that explains some discrepancy between the arms purchased by Yerevan and the forces of the Armenian army itself. Remember Iskander. Remember the billions for the purchase of special equipment for the Armenian army.
Russia quite correctly understood the long-known truth: the enemy must be beaten on its territory. What our grandfathers and great-grandfathers sang in the songs in 30-s is realized in reality today. The benefits of grouping are obvious to both countries. The world must live in peace! And for this, it is necessary that the notion that it is impossible to start firing today will appear in the world. It is troublesome. Troublesome especially for the aggressor.
If we, besides declarations on the creation of a multipolar world, do nothing, our price is worthless. And any pole must not only be proclaimed, but also defended.
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