Whose rakka, order and victory
The movement “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDS, SDF), mainly consisting of Kurds, after the liberation of Raqqah from IG militants (prohibited in the Russian Federation) may well include this city in their “federation”. We are not talking about the will of the winners who wished to subjugate the civilian population. The Kurds are not invaders, but liberators. Residents should support the idea of including the city in a federal region - only then can we talk about joining.
By freeing Raqqa, the “Syrian Democratic Forces” can create a military council to govern the city and include the “capital of terrorists” in the federal system. About this newspaper "News" said Abd Salam Ali - the representative in the Russian Federation of the Kurdish Democratic Union party, whose troops are members of the VTS.
“This issue will be decided by the population of the city,” he quotes. - If people vote for the presence of VTS in the territory of Raqqa, then they will remain. The main part of the combat units in any case will be withdrawn, that is, we are talking about the presence of units to maintain order. As for the governing body, they can become a military council, similar to the one that was created, for example, in Manbidzh (Aleppo province. - Approx. Izvestia), when the UDF fighters drove out the ISIL militants. We have a similar approach to the inclusion of Raqqa into the federal region. If the residents of the city support such an idea, it will happen. ”
As the general director of the Institute of Regional Problems Dmitry Zhuravlev noted in a conversation with Izvestia, the Kurds will include Raqqa in the federal region: “If Kurds have the opportunity to attach some territory and not run into political isolation, they will do it. Moreover, such a move is likely to be supported by the United States, because their task is to create an independent Kurdistan. The federalization of Syria will be an important step in this direction. How Americans are going to tear pieces off from other countries, primarily Turkey and Iraq, is another question. ”
As for the US political reaction to the actions of the Kurds in Raqqah, it is generally positive: Washington welcomes the Kurdish onslaught on the IS.
The release of Racca from the IG terrorist group will prevent the preparation of attacks against the US and its allies, believes Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook. He said this, commenting on the statements of the Syrian opposition about the start of the operation.
“Removing an IG cancer from the so-called capital of the so-called caliphate is another step in terms of our military campaign,” Mr. Cook said. TASS. “This is an important step, designed to ensure that the IS cannot use Raqqa to terrorize the Syrian people and plan outward attacks - against the US, their friends and allies.”
One more statement is known - from the State Department.
The United States will not coordinate the operation to free Raqqi with Moscow and Damascus, said Mark Toner, deputy head of the US State Department press service, at a briefing.
“No, we have no plans to coordinate this either with the regime or with Russia,” TASS quoted him as saying.
Toner also pointed out that Washington is not seeking to federalize Syria after its liberation from militants: "We are not striving for any particular federalism or federal system, nor for semi-autonomous zones."
Moreover, he announced the US desire to "see sovereign Syria in its unchanged state."
Meanwhile, in Damascus, the SDS military actions were considered just a blow to Syrian sovereignty.
According to the Syrian authorities, the operation of the “Syrian Democratic Forces” to free Raqqa is illegal and is a threat to national sovereignty.
"Any operation not sanctioned by the Syrian leadership and going beyond the actions of the country's army is illegal," - quotes RIA News" Syrian parliament deputy Jamal Rabia.
In his opinion, this also applies to the VTS operation. This movement covers the United States. “In Damascus, her (operation. - Ed.) Is considered as an attack on national sovereignty,” said Rabia.
Thus, verbally speaking against the federal system in Syria and advocating for the “unchanged state” of the country, in fact, the Americans encourage the operation of the Kurds and their desire to expand their “federal region”.
Not only Damascus objects to the advancement of the Kurds.
According to the same Toner, the United States is negotiating with Turkey in order to avoid conflict situations in Rakka. Ankara, notes "Independent newspaper", dissatisfied with Washington’s bid for the SDS, since the movement consists of more than half of the Kurdish people's self-defense units (YPG).
“No one in the world believes in this naive position that one terrorist organization, DAISH, can be removed with the help of another,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
Nevertheless, some agreements were reached at the talks between the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, Joseph Dunford, and the head of the General Staff of Turkey, Hulusi Akar. The attack on the Syrian El-Bab received a go-ahead for American air support. The second point concerns Iraq: Iraqi Sinjar was liberated from IS by Kurdish forces, and now Ankara believes that there the Kurdistan Workers' Party intends to create a base (terrorist, in Turkey’s opinion). Acar warned that Turkey would be forced to intervene in the situation in Sinjar, and the American general acknowledged that "this will be Turkey’s right."
As for Rakka, let us add, here some experts express unequivocally: whoever takes the “capital” of the IG, he will assign the main contribution to the victory over the militants, even despite all the previous achievements. Shown on this topic in an interview "Utru.ru" historian, political scientist, chief editor of the “Problems of National Strategy” journal of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Azhdar Kurtov.
He also noted that Washington is unlikely to abandon its plan to reformat the Middle East, in particular, Syria. “Apparently,” the expert said, “their [Americans] task is to gain a foothold in part of the territory of Syria, create puppet governments there from those political forces called moderate opposition, and thereby continue to create problems for the Assad government. At the same time, a plan will be implemented to create some new state entities. These plans are already seen from the beginning of this century, with the introduction of American troops into Iraq, when many experts predicted the possibility of the disintegration of Iraq into three components: Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite. And now, when there are active, poorly hidden negotiations between Iraqi Kurdistan and the central government in Baghdad on the possibility of independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, this plan is close to the beginning of its practical implementation. ”
The most interesting thing is that Turkey participates in the “drawing” of the new map of the Middle East: Mr. Erdogan recalls the agreements that rewrote the Middle East and the Ottoman Empire after its defeat in the First World War. Erdogan finds those treaties unfair and seeks opportunities for territorial "increment" of Turkey.
He who possesses Raqqah can contribute to the realization of these intentions and hinder them. The second is possible in case of victory of government forces and supporters of B. Assad.
However, it is difficult to predict the development of events in Rakka. The expert believes that the completion of the military operation in Mosul is on the agenda: “Depending on how the operation ends in Mosul (either by routing the group or squeezing it out towards Syria), it will depend on how active the resistance of DAISh fighters in rakkah. So far, judging by the fighting in Syria, the resistance is, in general, effective. In Aleppo, active hostilities continue, and there has been no particular success with the opposing DAISH military detachments. ”
And if the militants can leave Mosul voluntarily, then this will not happen to Rakka: this city is still positioned by the IS as the “capital”.
Earlier, we will add, the sources of the Iranian agency Fars reported that the information about the attack on Rakka forced the commanders of the “caliphate” to announce an emergency in the “capital”. “Simultaneously with the start of the SDF operation to free Raqqi, the terrorists began to dig trenches around it and filled them with crude oil. The IG has a plan to set fire to the ditches in the event that the SDF moves towards the city, ”quotes the agency’s source. "Independent newspaper". This man noted that the smoke from the ditches set on fire could hamper the work of the air reconnaissance.
In general, it is clear why Washington is not going to coordinate the attack on Rakka with either Syria or Russia. The White House has its own plans, in which the "outsiders" are not dedicated. The White House’s approval of the PIF operation makes it clear in general Washington’s plan: Kurdish forces under the auspices of the United States will take Raqqa and proclaim victory, the political fruits of which, of course, they will have to share with Washington. Syria will never be the independent country that Mr. Toner would like to see in an "unchanged state." If the Kurds win, they will head for an independent state, not a federation. The United States will have a local force for constant pressure on the Turks, and Syria will lose part of its territory.
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