Now very few people doubt that the United States, with the support of its main allies (we will leave aside the special position of a number of European countries), launched an economic war against Russia. Optimistic forecasts about the speedy lifting of sanctions, expressed by numerous “experts” in 2014 and the first half of 2015, showed the degree of “depth” and the ability for sober analysis by these “experts”.
Not to mention the fact that the world community places the blame for the lack of progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements and the occasional exacerbation of the situation in the South-East of Ukraine exclusively on Russia, the Americans use any reason for toughening the sanctions - Russia's alleged violation of the US nonproliferation law weapons mass destruction against Iran and Syria, hacking by anonymous hackers of the US Democratic Party mail servers, Russian actions aviation in Aleppo ...
The “logic” of the decisions on the introduction (or statements about the threat of introduction) of the next sanctions is striking in the absence of at least some logic. For example, even if Russian hackers really intercepted the correspondence of the functionaries of the Democratic Party, why should Russia be punished as a state for this? Is there any evidence that these individuals carried out a hacker attack on the instructions of the state authorities of the Russian Federation? And if there is no such evidence, would it be more logical to introduce personal sanctions against hackers caught by the hand, but not the state?
However, the logic in the actions of Americans is, and it is very simple. Of course, the sanctions imposed in connection with the events around Ukraine, but their goal is not limited only to resolving the Ukrainian crisis. The sanctions are aimed at lowering the living standards of the majority of the population, stimulating protest attitudes in Russian society, and ultimately, replacing the current political regime and removing the leader who embodies this regime from the political arena. Obviously, the maximum task for the United States is the overthrow of Vladimir Putin as a result of the “color revolution” and the coming to power of one of the leaders of the “non-systemic” opposition of a pro-Western, liberal type. The minimum task is to replace Vladimir Putin with a more acceptable figure for the West during the upcoming presidential election in 2018.
Therefore, as we approach the 2018 presidential election of the year, Washington will, under various pretexts, try to toughen its own sanctions and incline the European Union to a similar decision. I would not be surprised if in a month or two some irresponsible bird, flying over Washington, allows itself to defecate on the head of some congressman or (God forbid !!!) of the president himself, and Russia will again pay for her barbarity! Alert American intelligence agencies will of course determine that the bird flew in from the East, will obtain (although they do not wish to present because of their special secrecy) irrefutable evidence that the malicious bird received an order to commit an ugly action directly from the cunning Russian tyrant, but the US government, Naturally, it will introduce new sectoral sanctions, for example, against civil aviation of the Russian Federation, which will be unanimously supported by Washington’s closest associates.
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Everything is clear with the Americans. Together with the Allies, they launched an economic war against Russia and, figuratively speaking, formed the first front.
But as in any war, Washington relies on collaborators who form a second front of economic war, and this is deeply echeloned.
The avant-garde of the second front is comprised of the few, but extremely active, non-systemic, liberal-type opposition figures residing both in Russia and abroad. They reveal to the naive Western public all the horrors of the bloody tyrannical regime, however, without explaining why in this mode they are still not only alive, but also look quite plump, freely driving around our country, promoting their views and even participating in elections. "Non-systemic" claim that the sanctions imposed on Russia as a bastard for it are like an elephant. They call to declare a rashka a total economic war in order to bring the population to a state where it can no longer tolerate and “throw the hated tyrant from the throne”.
Thus, the former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov speaking in the Polish city of Lodz at the forum “Olympic Games of Freedom”, called on the European Union not to compromise with Moscow and strengthen sanctions. Kasyanov hopes that soon the Russians "will begin to rethink the situation" and think about how to "live to the end of the year."
The same theses were heard at the “Free Russia” forum in mid-October in Vilnius, which was attended by such “stars” of non-system opposition as Alfred Koch, Garry Kasparov, Andrei Illarionov, Andrei Piontkovsky, Igor Eidman, Masha Gessen, Evgeny Chichvarkin, Ilya Ponomarev, and, of course, a bright representative of the liberal intellectual elite, masterfully owning profanity and blatant vocabulary, the conscience of the Russian people Bozhena Rynska.
Garry Kasparov said in Vilnius that the West today uses the economic potential in the fight against the Russian Federation "about ten percent" and called for Russia to apply the experience of Western economic pressure on Iran in 2012 – 2015. According to him, “Putin’s regime is not ready even for half of what the Iranian regime could endure, because that degree of integration into the West was not close there. That is, in fact, there will be much more problems here, even if the West will go at least partially to the sanctions that were built against Iran. ”
In general, the topic of using against Russia the methods of economic war that the United States used against Iran is becoming increasingly popular among Russian “non-system” oppositionists. Apparently, they are inspired by the fact that in the summer of 2013, at the next presidential election in Iran, the group of “conservatives”, led by the former president of this country, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was distinguished by harsh anti-American rhetoric and earlier enjoyed great popularity among the people, miserably lost to the opposing group of “liberal reformers ”, and its nominee Hasan Rouhani became the next president of the country. All observers interpreted the outcome of the elections as a result of a total economic blockade by the West, which led to a sharp deterioration in the material welfare of the majority of citizens tired of constant deprivation.
In an interview with the Danish newspaper Politiken in mid-October of this year. former senior researcher at the Higher School of Economics (HSE), and now senior researcher at the American think tank Brookings Institution Sergey Aleksashenko said: “to break Putin, you need a lot more pressure.” He is confident that Russia will be affected only by the complete blockade imposed against Iran, namely, the freezing of all Russian assets in Western banks, disconnection of banks from the SWIFT system, a ban on the import of oil and gas from Russia, as well as the export of any high-tech goods to Russia, including computers and mobile phones: “With the current sanctions, Putin is ready to live for another ten years. He is able to survive politically, and Russia - economically ... The example of Iran has shown that sanctions can be effective. But anti-Russian sanctions are just 5% sanctions against Iran. If the West really wants to put pressure on Putin, let it demonstrate the same sanction will as it does with Iran. ”
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Many "non-systemic oppositionists", including those who were present at the forum in Vilnius, are the former "elite" of Yeltsin Russia, inhabitants of Rublevka. Now they live permanently in Europe or the USA, and in the 90 and early zero years they occupied key positions in the state apparatus and business. They consider themselves to be in the category of “political emigration of the last wave,” although the definition of “political” hardly corresponds to reality: the majority left “Putin's Russia” after initiating criminal cases on crimes of an economic or general criminal nature.
For example, Alfred Kokh, the former chairman of the State Property Committee of Russia (GKI), deputy chairman of the government and organizer of “pledge auctions”, became famous for having “helped” ONEKSIMbank to gain control over Norilsk Nickel. He was forced to resign as the head of the GKI in connection with the publication in the media of the details of the scandalous deal with the sale of a blocking stake in Svyazinvest, and in 2015, he was put on international wanted list on charges of banal smuggling of cultural property. The former owner of Euroset, Yevgeny Chichvarkin, fled to London after a criminal case was initiated against him in connection with a kidnapping and extortion.
In the 1995 — 1998 years, Sergey Aleksashenko held the position of First Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Central Bank and was responsible for the issuance of government short-term obligations (GKO) and interaction with the IMF. He probably could tell a lot of interesting things about where the IMF loan of $ 4,78 billion disappeared, allocated to Russia to stabilize the financial situation in July 1998. The Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation, which opened criminal case No. 18 / 221050-98, the auditing company PricewaterhouseCoopers and even US congressmen Dan Burton and Mike Pence, tried to find traces of the loan, but to no avail. In Novaya Gazeta, one of the documents of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation was quoted as saying by 18.10.1999: “Aleksashenko S.V., holding the position of first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, had ruble and currency accounts in several commercial banks to which funds received from T-bills were credited. Only on his ruble account N 42301810400011702985, opened in Avtobank, 1998 received large payments for 11 year. For 1997 year, respectively, 6 payments and 1996 year - 12 payments totaling about 560 million non-denominated rubles. "
“Misha two percent” is the most cunning of them: everyone is sure that he stole “on black”, but he wasn’t caught by the hand, and therefore lives quietly in Russia (regarding the swindling deal with the summer residence of the former member of the politburo of the CPSU Central Committee 1 "law enforcement agencies, unfortunately," were ashamed "to open a criminal case, although the evidence of a crime was more than convincing).
The attitude of the current “political émigrés” to modern Russia is interesting to compare with the perception of the Soviet Union by the post-revolutionary Russian emigration. The attack of fascist Germany on the USSR split the white movement into two camps. Some representatives of the white emigration, including the generals Krasnov, Shkuro, Abramov, Vdovenko and others, driven by hatred of the Soviet power and the desire to avenge the loss of property and the death of loved ones, began to cooperate with the Nazis and even joined the militias created by the Germans to implement military functions (security, punitive operations) in Europe. The majority of the emigrants, including A. Denikin, I. Bunin, S. Rachmaninoff and others, acted on the side of the Soviet Union. 22 June 1941 Patriarch Metropolitan Sergius issued a special message in which he blessed all faithful children of the Russian Orthodox Church for the feat of protecting the Russian Fatherland. Many fought against fascist Germany in the underground and partisan detachments in Yugoslavia, France, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Belgium, and Italy.
In general, the spiritual principle, love of country, the feeling that they are part of Russia in many white immigrants turned out to be stronger than even the pain from the loss of loved ones, exile and the desire to take revenge on the Soviet power ... Although the current "political emigrants" have lost only power ( many managed to keep large property in Russia), their moods are very different. Three devils live in them and control them - greed, ambition and unlimited hatred for those who have deprived them of their power. “Patriotism” for them is a word not only empty, but even an abusive one. They would be happy if half of the Russian population went to the grave as a result of a complete blockade, or the country would be occupied by NATO troops, which would be hung up on a “patriot-statesman” at each telephone pole. The main thing for them is to dump Putin who is hated by them and to return power, and at what price it doesn't matter.
The most frankly this sentiment was expressed by Professor Zubov, a candidate in the last elections from the Parnassus party who wrote in the Vilnius forum, who wrote in his blog that it didn’t matter to him what scenario of power change in Russia would happen - revolution or occupation: “occupation is even better. Nothing to do. Stay on the balcony and throw flowers. "
It's funny that, speaking with the slogans of “overthrowing the tyrannical regime” and restoring democracy in Russia, the “non-systemists” understand this very democracy very peculiarly. The most simple and intelligible position on this issue was formulated on Twitter by Yakov Levin, who commented on the results of the last parliamentary elections: “People are rubbish. Such democracy cannot be given until they learn to vote normally ”(by the word“ normal ”, he apparently meant“ for the PARNAS party ”). And the conscience of the Russian people, a representative of the intellectual elite, masterly profanity of profanity, Bozena Rynska added: “Well, what about the cats? We are waiting for the generation of ... bans to die. Then maybe something will change. It is a pity, at this time we will be wonderful at retirement. ”
Many in Russia do not pay attention to the hysterical cries of "forever yesterday", treat them with disgust and even somewhat lightly, do not consider them dangerous, believing that in the eyes of the overwhelming majority of citizens of our country they have completely discredited themselves. After the collapse of the USSR, the current “non-systemic” could carry out market reforms without robbing the people, as it was done, for example, in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and other countries of Central Europe, but natural greed, dizziness from winning 1991 year, monstrous egocentrism, lack of any morality and confidence that the "scoops" can be robbed immensely and endlessly, they won. The people with horror recall the abominations of 90, impoverishment, predatory privatization, the power of gangsters in cities and bones will fall to prevent them from returning to power.
Jeffrey Sachs, a Columbia University professor who led a group of American advisers to the government of E. Gaidar, later assessed the outcome of reforms in Russia as follows: “It seems to me that the Russian leadership surpassed the most fantastic ideas of Marxists about capitalism: they considered that the business of the state is to serve a narrow circle of capitalists, pumping as much money as possible into their pockets as quickly as possible. This is not a shock therapy. This is a malicious, premeditated, well-thought-out action, which has as its goal a large-scale redistribution of wealth in the interests of a narrow circle of people. ”
In this, the overwhelming majority of Russians agree with the American economist, as evidenced by the results of the last parliamentary elections: less than 1% of the population voted for the Parnassus party.
In my opinion, the “waveless” in Russia and the “political emigrants” of the last wave are not as harmless as it seems at first glance. They were in power, had access to top-secret information, including of a defense nature, they know the most vulnerable places of our economy and are able to give extremely helpful hints to Western planners of anti-Russian sanctions. Finally, some of them, for example, former presidential aide A. Illarionov and former prime minister M. Kasyanov, were in the close circle of Vladimir Putin and can provide invaluable information to Western intelligence agencies about where and how to deal the most painful blow.
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However, the main danger is not “political emigrants” and “non-systemic” within the country, but their like-minded people are “hidden collaborators” who sat down in government departments of economic profile and form the rearguard of the second front of the economic war against Russia. Openly, they do not oppose the political leadership of the country, mimic patriots and even go to Orthodox churches, but slyly do everything to strengthen the effect of Western sanctions and shift the current political regime.
It was their comprador economic policies aimed at the unrestrained exploitation of oil, gas and other natural resources that led the country into a deep systemic crisis, and thanks to their activities, the crisis brought enormous advantages to big business and at the same time dealt an extremely painful blow to the middle class and low-income strata of the population, who are the main support of the President within the country.
Despite the crisis and the decline in production, the “big” business feels more comfortable than ever. For 6 months of 2015, the profits of large companies increased 2 times, and for individual sectors of the economy - 4,5,6,7 and even 17 times! [10] Over the entire 2015, profits jumped one and a half times, while GDP fell by 3,7%. Fantastic profit growth is typical not only for companies that specialize in the export of raw materials and have benefited from the depreciation of the ruble, but also for those that operate exclusively in the domestic market.
The same picture is observed in the 2016 year. Although production continued to fall, for eight months of this year. net profit of large companies increased by 17% over the same period 2015 of the year, reaching 7 trillion. rubles. Russian banks in January-September of this year. received 635 billion rubles in net profit, which is five times more than the same period last year (127 billion rubles). The profit of only one Sberbank rose to 376,65 billion rubles. The total assets of the banking sector at the beginning of October reached a fantastic volume - 79,7 trillion. rubles, which exceeds the size of Russia's annual GDP (75 trillion rubles.).
The financial prosperity of large companies in a crisis and falling production is explained very simply. Domestic business inflates prices for goods and services, using the monopoly position or through cartel collusion with the connivance or even encouragement of “hidden collaborators” in state bodies. As a result, consumer prices jumped to 2015% in 12,9. In turn, the banks inflate the size of the commission on operations of individuals: in January-September, 2016, 177 billion rubles were withdrawn from the pocket of an ordinary depositor as a commission.
In other words, through high inflation, the «hidden collaborators’ shifted the brunt of the crisis onto the population, sharply increasing the level of poverty. According to Rosstat, the number of Russians whose income does not even reach the subsistence minimum was 2016 million at the beginning of the second quarter of 22,7 - by 8,3 million or by 58% more than at the end of the fourth quarter of 2015 of the year (14,4 million). [ 15] At the end of 2016, the number of poor could increase by another few million people. The proportion of Russians living below the subsistence minimum in the total population was 15,7%, that is, every sixth citizen of our country lives in poverty.
As acknowledged by Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets, who spoke at the Sochi-2016 investment forum, poverty is also increasing due to the fact that wages “are significantly reduced to the real price of labor” and, if expressed less diplomatically, because of the monstrous exploitation of "big business" by employees. According to Golodets, “today there are almost 5 million people in the Russian market - 4 million 800 thousand - we work at the minimum wage and 1 million 800 thousand people are state employees who work at the minimum wage”.
The poor become poor, and the middle class, which in any society is the mainstay of social stability, is now rapidly eroding and becoming the poor. The consumption of even vital goods, both food and industrial, is falling. Retail volume in 2015 decreased by 10% - an unprecedented high drop over the entire history monitoring of this indicator with 1970 g. Real wages of the population fell for 2015 year by 9,5%, and the size of the minimum wage (7500 rubles) remains well below the subsistence minimum.
In the third quarter of 2016, we seem to have “reached the bottom of the crisis,” however, it is not clear who exactly reached this “bottom” - after all, big business and banks “did not think to go to the bottom”. As for the population, it both sank and continues to sink. According to experts of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, the income of Russians in the third quarter of 2016 fell another 6,1% compared to the same period last year. No such welfare decline has been observed since 1999.
A shocking column appeared in social networks, reminiscent of the hungry years of the civil war or the times of besieged Leningrad, “I change things for food”. Let me give you only one announcement from many of this kind.
"Good day! I’m in a hurry looking for a nominal fee or for free - milk formulas for 7-month baby. Nestogen Nestogen from 6 months will do. But we eat and little one. I know that in the dairy kitchen they give out food and some children do not eat these mixtures. Give and porridge, jars of mashed potatoes. I will be glad to all. I will pick up quickly and with gratitude. We are given 2 packaging, but they are sorely lacking. Financially it is very difficult for me now. I bring up one children. Thank you in advance! + 7 (985) …… .. (MTS) Natalia. ”
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At the same time, the “hidden collaborators” block any attempts to redistribute the national income from large companies and banks in favor of the poor. Under the most ridiculous pretexts, they reject proposals to replace the flat income tax with a progressive one, to introduce any form of control over consumer prices, to raise taxes on the income that big business receives from the exploitation of natural resources belonging to the whole people, etc.
They sabotage almost all presidential orders in the social field, in particular, the famous May decrees (according to the ONF and Opora Russia, 80% of all presidential orders in connection with May decrees were not fulfilled, and the rest were executed formally, with poor quality).
It is significant how the President’s instructions “to discourage the speculators from playing on the fluctuations of the ruble exchange rate”, expressed in the message to the Federal Assembly 4 in December 2014 of the year, i.e. during the period of rapid depreciation of the national currency, which led to a sharp surge in inflation and dealt a painful blow to the least protected strata of citizens of the country - pensioners, the disabled, large and incomplete families, single mothers, workers, ordinary public servants.
The degree of "effectiveness" of the fight against currency speculators is evidenced by the results of the Moscow Exchange. As with its jubilation, it is noted in its annual report, in the crisis year of 2015, when production fell throughout the entire 4 quarter, the exchange received “record-breaking financial results”, which “were caused by an increase in trading volume in the foreign exchange, money and bond markets”. In particular, the total volume of trading in the foreign exchange market amounted to 310,8 trillion. rubles, which is 36,0% higher than in 2014. Thanks to these “record-breaking financial results”, the ruble fell another 27% and the citizens of the country became just as poor. In the first quarter
2016 of GDP continued to fall, and the currency trading volume increased by 59,5% compared to the same period of 2015 on the stock exchange to 89 trillion. rub. “Against the background of rising exchange rate volatility.”
But today's material difficulties of the population are only berries. On the eve of the presidential election of 2018, the “hidden collaborators” are preparing for us new surprises, hoping that growing poverty will spawn a protest movement and bring people who “will sweep away the hated totalitarian regime” into the street. To all appearances, they intend to take advantage of the upcoming structural reforms, the need for which almost everyone now recognizes (a reform plan is now being developed in the Economic Council under the President).
In the liberal media on the subject of the upcoming reforms, many articles, interviews and comments have appeared, the meaning of which boils down to one thing - ordinary citizens will have to tighten their belts even tighter. More often this thought is presented in a very “delicate” form, but sometimes with amazing frankness and even cynicism.
For example, in an interview with "Moscow Komsomol" 27 October this year. HSE academic adviser Yevgeny Yasin, speaking of the tasks of economic policy on the eve of the presidential election, called for “not always implementing pleasant structural reforms, but for the people who are long overdue.” Responding to the journalist’s natural remark that “the population is not thrilled with the reforms that promise new financial trials”, the “gurus” of national liberalism and the defender of democratic principles categorically snapped: “Decisions on such important steps should not be made by the population and the responsible elite. " According to Ye.G. Yasin, “getting into the pocket is an ordinary monetary policy step. If you do not climb, if you have unnecessary expenses, you will not stop the crisis and only take one more step to deepen it. ”And further:“ I don’t belong to the category of people who believe that the population should be pitied - by shifting subsequent tests to others. In this sense, I fully support the line Gaidar. "
EG, however, did not explain why it is impossible to “pass the test” not to “others”, but, for example, to a large business, in which money from all the cracks bulges, just do not climb from the ears.
In general, we are preparing the second stage of “shock therapy” ...
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In war, including economic warfare, the one who is stronger is not always the winner (“God is not in power, but in truth”).
Our people have always been distinguished by their endurance and long-suffering. He survived the Great Patriotic War, the horrors of the 90-s, and survive the current crisis. However, to maintain social harmony and stability, in my opinion, two conditions are necessary:
- a feeling of social justice, which can only give a situation in which the crisis in equal measure falls on all segments of the population and segments of society, including the richest and big business:
- confidence that there is a way out of the current situation and the country is moving towards the “light at the end of the tunnel”.
We will withstand the onslaught on the “first front”. Far from all of Europe is ready to dance to the tune of Washington, obediently extend the old sanctions and introduce new ones. In the end, we have strong arguments in case the West crosses a certain line. Until now, we responded to economic pressure with extreme restraint and did not resort to extreme measures, for example, did not stop gas supplies to Europe, providing 30% of the needs of this continent, did not prohibit civilian flights of western countries through its territory to East Asia, etc. . Even with regard to the Kiev authorities, who bit the bit in their sanctions policy, we showed maximum restraint, limiting ourselves with mirror-response measures, although we could have introduced a visa regime for a long time and sent home several million guest workers, allowing the Ukrainian government to feed their families themselves.
As for the "second front" and "hidden collaborators", then the main weapon against them is vigilance. As they say in the East, "to think that a weakened enemy cannot kill you is to think that a spark cannot make a fire." And yet, like any evil spirits, the most “hidden” are afraid of light, publicity. Exposing them and opening their plans is the task of the whole society.