Course on the world?
In 2009, a detailed analysis of the current state of affairs in the world, trends and deepening global contradictions led me to the conclusion about the likelihood of a third world war and the assumptions about the nature of its course. At that time, relations between Russia and the “civilized world” were almost cloudless: the West robbed us, and our power elite rejoiced at such a “partnership”. Then talk about the possibility of a world war was somehow not perceived. But today, the lazy isn’t talking about the reality of the third world war. Comparison of the forecast and the current state of affairs shows that the assumptions are beginning to materialize.
At the expense of Europe
First of all, the growth of global contradictions attracts attention. The decisive influence of the West’s attempts to establish control over the regions containing the bulk of world reserves of energy resources and other strategic raw materials had a decisive influence on the content and form of their manifestation.
The first of the contradictions that form the objective conditions for a new world war is usually the imbalance between the growth of production and consumption and the resources available, the capabilities of the Earth’s ecosystem. The only way out is to reduce consumption. The question arises: at the expense of whom?
Many scientists and experts say that the problem of hydrocarbon deficiency is supposedly removed: shale oil appeared on the market, and it is only up to the improvement of production methods. However, optimistic promises of the possibility of reducing its cost to the level of urals are very doubtful. And the problem is not only in oil. Approaching the depletion of uranium reserves. Meanwhile, in densely populated Europe, the USA and Japan, nuclear power is probably the only chance to prevent the transformation of the territories of these countries into a zone of ecological disaster as a result of increasing emissions from thermal power plants. The problem of fresh water is getting worse. Its main reserves - Lake Baikal and the Amazon Basin - are beyond Western control. Attempts either by rough aggression (Iraq and Afghanistan) or by “soft” power (“Arab spring”) to take control of a key region in terms of reserves of energy raw materials were unsuccessful. The controversy has not been resolved by artificially restricting access to the world’s resources to the rapidly growing economies of China and India and other countries of Southeast Asia. As a result, the West is faced with the need to solve this problem within itself — to search among its countries for those who should reduce consumption in the interests of others. Work in this direction is in full swing.
First of all, the problem of migrants is being intensified. In any normal country, unauthorized crossing of the border means a prison and subsequent expulsion from the country. In Europe, illegal migrants are also outraged against the local population. And the EU authorities look at it as an almost normal phenomenon (although the law is valid for citizens of other countries, violators are punished). The number of migrants is growing very rapidly, and they are concentrated in the most developed countries of Europe. The result may be the growth of chaos there, the diversion of significant resources to support visitors and their integration into society. As a result - the aggravation of economic problems and production cuts, the business will begin to intensively withdraw it beyond the national territory. This means de-industrialization of Europe and, accordingly, a reduction in resource consumption. The Transatlantic Partnership is working in the same direction - in a single economic area, the United States will be able to strangle EU production and reduce resource consumption. This has already happened with the countries of Southern Europe and the former socialist camp, as well as with the former Soviet republics. Thus, the United States solves the problems of its crisis by shifting them to "partners", as it was done before with the third world countries. In the same context, treaties in the development of the Kyoto Protocol should be considered. The US itself refuses to comply with its recommendations, but insists that others do it.
"Billion" without gilding
The contradiction between nations, including the top, and the transnational elite is growing and becoming apparent. Its resolution is possible either by building a single global state or by establishing a new world order. The latter is understood as a community of sovereign countries, reflecting the interests of their peoples, where supranational bodies play only a coordinating role, and transnational structures do not have independent political subjectness. Apparently, the European elites are beginning to wake up, realizing the disastrous for themselves following in the wake of someone else's politics. In the EU, this is manifested in the growing influence of various European skeptics - the party of Marie Le Pen in France, the “German alternative” in the FRG, the Brexit supporters in the UK, the “non-system” Alexis Tsipras in Greece. In the US, such a mood embodies Trump. Here, these contradictions are particularly acute - the military leadership regularly opposes the course of the political elite. For transnational elites, carriers of ideas like the “golden billion”, this means a serious threat to their current omnipotence. So the decision to create a European army can mean preparation for the forceful suppression of national elites, because the EU simply does not have a real external opponent.
The transformation of the system of world reserve currencies with the appearance of the Chinese yuan in it and its rapid transition to the third position, pushing the yen and pound sterling, show a clear tendency to the loss of the dominant position of the dollar. Already in the short term, this will mean a global financial outflow from the control of the Fed. The loss of the Anglo-American and transnational elites of the dominant position in this area means their collapse. After all, the Chinese elite is purely national both according to the principles of formation, and according to ideology.
The contradiction between the mentality of the “free market”, which professes the power of money, and the spiritual foundations of civilizations continues to grow. The most obvious manifestation of this contradiction for the transnational elite and its puppets in the top leadership of European countries was the obvious discredit of liberal ideas even among the population of Europe and the USA. In conceptual terms, this led to practical withdrawal from the active propaganda positions of the idea of the “golden billion” in any of its modifications, replacing it with the American “holding leadership in the world” without any ideological justification for the population and elites of other countries. The manifestation of this contradiction - and the growth of adherents of Islam in Europe, especially from among the indigenous people, the strengthening of various nationalist movements, professing the idea of "strong power for the people."
All the objective prerequisites of the Third World War noted seven years ago remain, moreover, they are becoming more acute. Disproportions cover all spheres of human activity and, accordingly, their resolution will require a complete revision of the world order. That is, we are talking about building a qualitatively new global order, which differs from the present in all major aspects. It is almost impossible to do this without bloodshed, which is quite large-scale.
The last feature
World wars can only be fought by coalitions. The core of one of them has long been formed in the form of NATO. Its global goal is understood - the establishment of world domination, unipolar world. It is explicitly defined in the US National Security Strategy: maintaining a leading position and achieving guaranteed access to all vital areas. The elite of this coalition is psychologically ready for the start of the war for resources, and even craves it, given the negative trends of the world for themselves.
However, Western society does not want war. There is no nation eager to ensure its well-being in this way. There is no war party, a structure capable of consolidating society ideologically and organizationally. There is no generally accepted ideology that justifies war as the only means of solving problems. Hence, the high sensitivity of the armed forces of the Western countries to the losses of personnel, the unreadiness of the population to the victims.
Transnational and Anglo-American elites, their puppets in the European ranks are aware of this and are trying to solve the problem by forcing military hysteria in the media. To some extent this is possible. The moods of intimacy of the great war have already covered a certain part of the population of the Old World. The realization that global trends are negative for them, gives rise to extreme nervousness in transnational elites. At the same time, their aggressiveness increases, the psychological threshold of the transition to the use of military force, including nuclear weapons.
Another coalition is not yet politically framed. However, its practical formation is proceeding at a rather high pace. The core has already been determined - Russia and China. Over the past two years, our joint military exercises have acquired unprecedented scale and intensity. And their focus has become quite clear - the fight against nuclear submarines and the reflection of attacks aviation in no way connected with the fight against terrorists. At the same time, the intensity of joint exercises with potential allies is growing: Iran, Egypt, Venezuela, the CSTO countries.
In 2009, I noted that the intellectual and political elites of Russia, China, our possible allies did not fully understand the essence of the global crisis and the resulting opposition, did not understand where the main danger comes from, who exactly is the geopolitical enemy. Therefore, the main task of the coalition countries in world war was not articulated - to thwart attempts to establish the rule of Western civilization.
Today, the leaders of Russia and China, the countries allied to them, officially declared their goal: building a multipolar world based on justice and equality of all states and peoples. This is a key ideological factor unification.
We state that today the global ideological confrontation has finally formed: contenders for world domination against supporters of equality of states. The ideological basis of the third world war is well understood by the elites of the opposing coalitions. There are their leaders - the United States and Russia. Thus, if by the year 2009 there were only objective prerequisites for the Third World War, then today it can be stated that a significant part of the subjective factors are being formed quite intensively. TMB is becoming a reality.
In conclusion, it is worth paying attention to those fearing the Chinese threat that in interstate relations allies and opponents are determined by the specific conditions of the situation. If there is a common enemy with which countries cannot cope alone, they unite to defeat him and do not pay attention to the contradictions among themselves. Such alliances are stable until victory is won. Suffice it to recall the anti-Hitler coalition, consisting of ideological and geopolitical antagonists. Nevertheless, it existed until the complete defeat of Nazi Germany. So with the Russian-Chinese alliance — until the common threat for our countries arising from the United States and its allies is eliminated, we will remain together. And then time will tell - after solving the main task, the world will be completely different.
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