Shiite Iran and Sunni Turkey in the struggle for Mosul

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Shiite Iran and Sunni Turkey in the struggle for Mosul

17 October in the morning 06: 00 operation was launched to free the city of Mosul from the hands of the Islamists. The object is important from several angles: firstly, it is one of the largest storehouses of oil (the main fields are located in the south of Kurdistan, in the Mosul-Kirkuk-Khanekin belt, make up 5% of world oil production) and minerals, which Iraq and its Kurdish autonomy is sold to world energy markets, secondly, it is a developed industrial and economic facility, and thirdly, it is the largest city in Iraq, under the control of Islamic State militants. Accordingly, the liberation of Mosul will mean the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and the loss of the second named capital of the group.

In the city of Mosul are more than 8 thousand militants of the IG, he was left by government troops with little or no battle during the attack 10 June 2014 of the year. It is the largest urban center under the control of the militants, with a pre-war population of 3 million (now there are about 1,5 million people). Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi said he was seeking to bring the city under control of Iraq this year.



Military geography in Mosul:

- about 50 fighters of the Shiite militia Al-Hashd al-Shaabi, which is supported by Iran, are currently stationed southwest of Mosul,

 south of Mosul is a large Iraqi army supported by 700-800 US instructors,

 to the north - the military formations of Iraqi Kurdistan (Peshmerga),

 Turkish militias are also located near the city.

The liberators of Mosul can be divided into the following groups: Iraqi formations, Kurdish formations of the Peshmerga, Turkish and Iranian forces. From the air, the operation is carried out by the countries participating in the Western coalition against the IS (forces of France, Germany and Canada).

The ground part of the special operation for the liberation of Mosul was planned with the advancement of precisely the Kurdish Peshmerga detachments, whose total number reaches the 50 thousand fighters. A couple of hours after the start of the operation, the Kurdish militant units of the “Peshmerga” had already managed to establish control over the 9 settlements on the approaches to the Iraqi Mosul. From the direction from the valley of Al-Kayyarav to the district of Al-Hamdaniya (in 30 km from Mosul) parts of the federal police of the republic have already moved forward. According to the Iraqi political scientist, professor of Salahaddin University (Arbil) Aziz Barzani, the liberation of the city of Mosul will take 1 a month, however, absolute control over the city is possible no earlier than 3 a month after the start of the operation. The total number of the liberation army numbers 120 thousand people.

The interests of Iraq in Mosul are transparent, the interests of the Kurds lie in the fact that Iraqi Kurdistan needs additional support from both Iraq and outside forces. Helping the liberation of Mosul will have its effect on this.

The question of Mosul has a special regional value for two influential players in the Middle East — Turkey (with its Sunni majority) and Iran (with its Shiite core).

IRAN'S INTERESTS IN MOSUL

The goal of Iran in Mosul is to break through the land corridor to Syria.

Formed exclusively on religious grounds, members of the Al-Hashd al-Shaabi militia are ready to fight against any Sunnis. This is precisely what Turkey fears, which strongly opposes the two participants participating in the liberation of Mosul - the Kurds themselves (who the Iraqi government asked for help) and the Shiites. Military Shiites will form reinforcement units and enter Mosul itself - this is a risk for Tehran.

Initially, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that there would be no Shiite fighters during the storming of Mosul, however, they are. And the Shiites warned that they would take part in the liberation of the informal capital of ISIS. As the National Interest notes, this may be a result of the pressure of Iran, which exerts influence through its henchmen and through Mosul wants to lay the foundation for the land corridor to Syria. The risk of the situation lies in the fact that a new round of the eternal Sunni-Shiite conflict may develop against the background of the operation.

TURKISH AMBITIONS IN MOSULA

The goals of Turkey in Mosul are multifaceted: from the desire to realize themselves as a Middle Eastern leader to the desire to return historical Ottoman heritage.

Turkey has placed an order of 2000 fighters near Mosul (Bashik district) who train local military. As the practice of the foreign policy of R.T. Erdogan, his ambitions often go too far. So they got to Mosul too.

If for Iran this city is assessed by modern realities, then for Turkey it has more historical significance. Almost a hundred years have passed since the defeat of Turkey in the First World War, as a result of which the Ottoman Empire officially broke up, and the oil region of Mosul became part of Iraq. According to the so-called so-called in 1920 the national vow, which drew the borders of the new Turkish state, Mosul province was considered a part of Turkey. However, then it was not possible to attach it, and therefore the Mosul problem arose. In the first half of the 20s, very heated parliamentary discussions took place in Turkey, as a result of which it was decided to agree on the following wording of Kemal Atatürk: “As long as we are weak, we must forget about these territories.” Here are the words of Erdogan said on the day the operation began: “We bear historical responsibility for Mosul. If gentlemen wish, then let them honor the Misaka Milli (national pact) and then it will become clear what significance this city has for us, ”this is a direct confirmation. In all likelihood, the same time came for the Turkish leader. However, the “echo” of Erdogan’s desire to return the Mosul vilayet to the neo-Ottoman state was heard back in January, when he sent Turkish to the Bashik region Tanks. The scenario with an enviable resemblance is being recreated to this day. Ankara allegedly with a “formal agreement” sent his military to carry out the liberation operation in Mosul. According to Turkish authorities, they will withdraw troops from northern Iraq only when necessary.

Thus, the goals of the two republics in Mosul differ in their essence, but they are similar in significance to their foreign policy prerequisites. The conflict of interest between the two powers is related to religious distinction and the civil war in Syria. If we analyze the chances of each of these two parties in a potential liberation operation, the Turkish side will most likely master it. Firstly, in the Mosul Sunnis itself - the majority, as in Turkey, secondly, the Turkish army (after the Kurdish formations) is the only real force capable of taking Mosul, and thirdly, the most effective wing in the liberation operation is the Kurdish peshmerga - closer to Ankara than Tehran. And the support of the Kurds to Erdogan is vital. It would seem that the view that the Kurds and Turks are the eternal enemies has already become commonplace and stable. However, the position of the Turkish establishment is actually different, depending on where these Kurds live. Erdogan is on friendly terms with Iraqi Kurds, and Iraq has close energy relations with Iraqi Kurdistan. Unlike Iran, which is just as usual weekly news about the executions of Kurdish activists, and at least about any cooperation and there can be no talk. Who will be the winner in the battle for Mosul? Shows time. For me, one thing is important - the Kurds, as the most effective force in the mosul operation, should be rewarded, and the disputed territories should be distributed according to the degree of their contribution to the liberation of the city. Let everyone be rewarded.
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  1. +3
    30 October 2016 05: 37
    Personally, I am for Persia.
    1. 0
      30 October 2016 23: 42
      The Americans again pitted everyone.
  2. 0
    30 October 2016 05: 59
    Victory in Mosul will not be quick. It is not yet known how much the coalition will get stuck there and how it will turn out for it. uh
  3. +1
    30 October 2016 06: 49
    The "ball" was tied up there. Anyway, they will have "showdowns" among themselves. If only they would not begin even before the capture of Mosul. There is no worse when there is no unity. No instructors will help here.
  4. +2
    30 October 2016 06: 49
    The total number of the liberation army is 120 thousand people.


    Against 8000 militants in the city .... something doesn’t fit here ... such a crowd of warriors is going to press a handful of bandits ... are these forces too excessive ... they can lay down their own with friendly fire.
    1. +2
      30 October 2016 07: 30
      Are these forces too excessive?

      Americans, and with the wrong hands, want a quick victory. But they also understand which of the Iraqis are at war. Therefore, here the principle is by number, not skill.
    2. Cat
      +2
      30 October 2016 07: 45
      So you must be able to fight! And at least wish for it! And when you don’t want and can’t get one result!
      Eastern saying: it is better to be the last of the wolves than the first of the rams.
      If the West wanted a result, it would simply motivate the first, second and third. One Kurdistan, the second religious non-interference from outside and a corridor, the third .... these are difficult, but Erdogan also has something to offer.
      And the West, solves its geopolitical problems, sometimes the USSR is already swinging the image of Stalin ..... Obama in the rate rises in the eyes of "Kiev ..... Mosul must be taken on the eve of the Great October Revolution ... to the all-American celebration of Helwin."
      The only thing, Obama to Stalin, how to "jump" to the moon on foot.
  5. +4
    30 October 2016 07: 25
    "... As noted by the National Interest, this may be the result of pressure from Iran, which is exerting influence through its henchmen and through Mosul, wants to lay the foundation for a land corridor to Syria."

    Iran is breaking a corridor for its potential pipelines in the EU, the latter receives an additional source and leverage for pressure, someone loses part of the market and, accordingly, income and influence, all this plowing of Syria is based on this
    1. +1
      30 October 2016 17: 49
      Quote: sa-ag
      Iran is breaking a corridor for its potential pipelines in the EU, the latter receives an additional source and leverage for pressure, someone loses part of the market and, accordingly, income and influence, all this plowing of Syria is based on this

      And not only. It is important for Iran to prevent the strengthening of the Kurds (as well as Turkey), since the Kurds also claim part of the territory of Iran.
  6. 0
    30 October 2016 07: 37
    This liberation mission will hiccup even to the world - having neutralized one mine right there, from a historical perspective, lay three delayed ones.
  7. +1
    30 October 2016 08: 02
    Yes. Nature does not tolerate emptiness.
    The presence of strong empires capable of defending their interests very much poisoned the life of the movement of goods and finances.
    And it gave rise to competition from the United States. Empires were dismantled into bolts (the last quarter of a century ago), small, territories are easier to control and easier to wedge into any conglomerate. But now sand is pouring from the USA. The formation of new empires begins, in a clash of interests, the formation of alliances for an hour and in blood. New world. "Controlled chaos" is another beautiful theory, sucked from the thumb, with uncalculated consequences. This chaos is already forming a number of empires (including virtual ones) and the US will not be allowed to "rule" it there.
  8. +1
    30 October 2016 10: 32
    Let there beat each other, the cunning will win in this situation. As the Arabs say; show patience and the corpse of your enemy, will carry you past to the cemetery. And Putin is patient.
    1. +2
      30 October 2016 14: 27
      Quote: captain
      Let there beat each other, the cunning will win in this situation. As the Arabs say; show patience and the corpse of your enemy, will carry you past to the cemetery. And Putin is patient.

      This is a Chinese proverb, so they will always win, and yes, the last character somehow does not look like followers of Confucius :-)
      1. +1
        30 October 2016 14: 46
        Quote: article
        To the south-west of Mosul, about 50 Shiite militias Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi, which supports Iran, are currently deployed.

        The Shiite militia blocks the possible escape route for terrorists from Iraqi Mosul to Syria.
        Quote: sa-ag
        Iran breaks through corridor for its potential EU pipelines

        Iran is unlikely to be talking about gas pipelines now, it just thinks it needs to provide a land corridor to Syria for the supply of arms to the government army of this country, as well as to the Afghan Iraqi Pakistani Iranian volunteers who are fighting for Syria against terrorists. After all, you can’t bring much by air like he does now.
  9. +1
    30 October 2016 21: 44
    Naturally, Jamila Kochoyan, a Kurdish by nationality (even I think a Yezidi), should advocate that the Kurds should be rewarded. Only now she got excited with a boastful statement that the Turks, after (!) The Kurds, are the second effective force in the region. I think it's presumptuous to compare the regular, well-equipped and, in fact, the second-strongest NATO army with the militia, with the police. To be honest, the article is essentially like an agitation from a combat leaflet, very amateurishly written. Sorry, a little feminine or even childish. Absolutely so, with the final obligatory refrain. looks like a mediocre essay by a 9th grade student) I did not expect from the "Military Review" that it has such authors who write such opuses. An armada of nearly 130 thousand fighters is milling about in front of Mosul. Although it was stated in serious sources, Euronews, etc. that only 000 inhabitants remain in Mosul. And against 500-000 thousand ISIS fighters, the motley Iraqi coalition of 5 thousand people is attacking. Or a statement that the Turks are friends with the wrong Kurds. Everything is very clear, the Turks are not friendly with the PKK and its Syrian branch. Since I think it would be difficult for everyone to be friends or at least border on the Kurdish version of the North Koreans. Let the United States be friends with North Korea and other Maoists on the Korean peninsula. Bordering these guys is a little different than arming and setting them on someone ...
  10. 0
    30 October 2016 22: 42
    For a long time, Jamily was not heard ...

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