The collapse of oil socialism
The Venezuelan Parliament pulls time: “is exploring the possibility of” the removal of President Nicolas Maduro from power on the initiative of the opposition. The initiative is connected with the decision of the National Electoral Council, which had previously postponed for an indefinite period the referendum on the early termination of the powers of Maduro. This referendum was scheduled for October 26-28. According to the opposition-minded deputies, the decision to “postpone” is a violation of the constitution.
Oppositionists believe that a referendum should be held before January 10. The fact is that a later date even in case of victory will lead to the transfer of power to the vice-president, supporter of Maduro. This person will rule Venezuela for the two remaining years (Maduro’s term expires in 2019). Thus, the parliamentary opposition will not be able to hold their man in power, and the situation will not change in essence.
Maduro himself did not find anything better than to visit ... the Pope. He enlisted the support of the Vatican in mediating negotiations with the opposition. Negotiations are scheduled for October 30.
The last clashes of protesters with the police led to the victims. One of the law enforcement officers was killed. The press reports a large number of injured - from 20 to 120 people, according to various sources. Probably, the number of victims will grow, because the protests do not subside. On October 27, more than eighty detainees were reported to the police.
Protesters demand a referendum on the resignation of Nicholas Maduro and impeachment. Any objection from the authorities only adds fuel to the fire.
"BBC" reports hundreds of thousands of residents who have taken to the streets of cities in the country to express disagreement with the policies of the Maduro government. The protests resulted in clashes with the police: in particular, it happened in San Cristobal and Maracaibo. Venezuelan human rights activist Alfredo Romero indicates that over twenty people were injured in Merida alone.
President Maduro did not say anything definite, only appealed to the pro-government rally participants in Caracas: "Let the people decide." However, what and how can the people decide if the Venezuelan Central Election Commission halted the collection of signatures for the referendum? The reason for the decision of the Central Election Commission was that the courts of several states annulled the results of the campaign, as if suspecting a fake signatures.
As a result, thousands of people came out in protest on the streets of Caracas. In addition, opposition leaders announced the start of a nationwide strike (launched on October 28). If at its end the authorities continue to block the collection of signatures, the opposition will march to the presidential palace.
Despite the fact that the parliament adopted a resolution on the trial of Maduro by a majority of votes, the government and the supreme court, reminds the BBC, are controlled by supporters of Maduro.
The protests are taking place against the background of a catastrophic situation in oil-producing Venezuela: inflation is already estimated at hundreds of percent, water and electricity are constantly turned off, and there is a shortage of food and medicine.
According to the latest IMF forecast, we will add that inflation may reach 700% in the near future. The cause of the financial and economic crisis lies on the surface: the price of hydrocarbons has long been at a low level compared to, for example, the record level observed several years ago. Revenues of the Venezuelan oil companies collapsed, and after all the state budget was kept on their money. Of course, Maduro's popularity has plummeted.
Oil socialism has been staggering in the country for years. However, the government still relies on oil as a way to solve old problems. There is a shortage of food and drugs in the country, and the authorities still state the need to reduce global oil production. This could be done jointly by non-OPEC countries. It is about reducing production at 400-500 thousand barrels per day, said the Minister of Oil of Venezuela, Eulogio del Pino.
“OPEC countries are ready to cut production by 700 000 barrels per day - to 32,5-33 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC countries produce about 16 million barrels per day. We offer countries outside of OPEC to coordinate and reduce production by about 400000-500000 barrels per day, i.e., about half of the OPEC reduction, ”he was quoted as saying "Vedomosti". He added that 16 mln. Tons of production comes from Russia, Oman, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Colombia, Mexico, Bahrain and Egypt.
Meanwhile, a strike continues in the country, and protests are spreading. The media predicts a quick civil war in Venezuela. It is also noted that Maduro deliberately pulls the time until January, so that the opposition could not come to power through a referendum and impeachment.
“Maduro is more afraid of this referendum because he is almost certain that the majority of voters will not support him,” BFM Emil Dabagyan, Leading Researcher, Institute of Latin America. - He is making some effort. The opposition, of course, does not reject the dialogue. But she believes that dialogue should not replace the procedure for the removal of the president. ”
As for the supporters of Maduro and his government, they look, according to a local resident, Maria from Santa Helena, as follows:
“The situation in Venezuela is developing in an unpredictable way, since the authorities of the country have not left the opposition to the mechanisms for removing the president from power,” said Gazeta.ru Region Leading Specialist Juan Carlos Hidalgo from the Cato Institute in Washington. “All that remains for oppositionists is the right to resist, which is provided for by the country's constitution,” he believes.
There are fears, the publication points out, that the authorities will use their usual methods: they will harshly suppress protests on the streets, labeling the oppositionists as “hirelings of American capitalism” And in this case, a civil conflict may begin.
What do Russian politicians think about the situation in socialist Venezuela?
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs "is looking at the situation with concern," suggesting that "the leadership of Venezuela and the healthy forces of Venezuelan society will find a way out of the current crisis period without detriment to the stability of the country and within the framework of the constitutional field." Moscow believes that the government of Maduro holds a constructive position.
Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov declares the inadmissibility of Western intervention in the affairs of Venezuela. “We support the leadership and the people of Venezuela and stand in solidarity with them at this difficult time,” Ryabkov quotes Utro.ru.
“In the conditions of a political crisis, Nicolas Maduro will rely on the army and the police. In any case, the army elite supports him. Thus, the Minister of Defense Padrino Lopez, on behalf of the Armed Forces of Venezuela, publicly expressed support for the lawfully elected president and commander in chief, ”said TASS specialist in Latin America, head of the department of international relations and foreign policy of Russia MGIMO Boris Martynov.
Interestingly, the protest electorate of Venezuela today includes those segments of the population that have always supported Chavez, and at first, Maduro. “Those poor segments of the population who received benefits and free housing from the state gradually made their way into the middle class. But when the country's budget fell to the bottom, and the free movement dried up, these people went into opposition to the ruling regime, ”Martynov said.
There is one more opinion. “The generals of the Armed Forces of Venezuela are former majors and captains, who were promoted by President Hugo Chavez to top positions. He was an idol to them, the military swore allegiance to Chavez and Bolivarian Venezuela. The big question is how loyal they will be to Maduro. He is not entirely his for them, not military, he does not have the former authority of Chavez, ”said Alexei Makarkin, deputy general director of the Center for Political Technologies.
Against the background of the economic crisis, the deficit and the highest inflation, we note in conclusion that a social explosion is really possible in Venezuela. The impoverished budget, the bankruptcy of many enterprises, unemployment, the declared strike, regular mass protests that have already led to the first victims, speak not only of the low popularity of Maduro and his government, but also of the urgent changes in the country that cannot keep on one oil.
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