Worse "Caliber"
The appearance of a serial hypersonic missile means a revolution in naval art: the relative parity in the offensive-defense system will change, the potential of the means of attack will radically exceed the capabilities of the defense.
The news of the successful testing of the latest Russian hypersonic missile seriously worried the US military leadership. There, according to media reports, they decided to develop countermeasures in a fire order. We have not paid due attention to this event. Meanwhile, the commissioning of this rocket’s armament will be an upheaval in military shipbuilding, will significantly change the balance of forces on the marine and oceanic theaters, and will immediately lead to the category of obsolete samples still considered completely modern.
The NPO of mechanical engineering conducts a unique development at least from the 2011 of the year (“Zircon”, five times from the target ”). In open sources, the research and production cooperation of enterprises and research institutes involved in its creation is presented fairly fully for such a promising and accordingly closed project. But TTX missiles are shown very sparingly. In fact, only two are known: the speed, which is estimated with a good accuracy of Mach 5 – 6 (sound speeds in the atmospheric surface layer) and the very approximate probable range 800 – 1000 kilometers. True, some other important data are available, based on which you can estimate the rest of the characteristics.
On warships "Zircon" will be used from the universal launcher of the vertical launch 3С-14, unified for the "Gauges" and "Onyxes." The rocket must be a two-stage. Starting stage - solid fuel engine. Only a ramjet (ramjet) can be used as a sustainer. The main carriers of Zircons are the heavy nuclear missile cruisers (TARKR) of the 11442 and 11442М projects, as well as the promising nuclear submarine with cruise missiles (SSGNs) of the 5 generation “Huskies”. According to unconfirmed data, the creation of an export version is being considered - the BrahMos-II, the model of which was presented at the DefExpo 2014 exhibition in February of the 2014.
At the beginning of this year, the first successful flight tests of a missile with a ground-based launcher took place. It is assumed that they will be put into service with the start of delivery to the ships of the Russian Navy before the end of the decade.
What can be drawn from this data? From the assumption of placement in a unified PU for “Calibrov” and “Onyxes” we make a conclusion about the dimensions and, in particular, that the energy sector of the GOS “Zirkon” cannot significantly exceed the similar indicators of the two mentioned missiles, that is, 50 – 80 kilometers depending on the effective area of dispersion (EPR) of the target. The combat unit of an operational-tactical missile designed to destroy large surface ships cannot be small. Given the open data on the weight of the Onyx and “Caliber” warheads, it can be estimated in kilograms 250 – 300.
The trajectory of the rocket at hypersound with a likely range of 800 – 1000 kilometers can be only high-altitude on the main part of the route. Presumably 30 000 meters, and even higher. This achieves a large range of hypersonic flight and significantly reduces the effectiveness of the most advanced air defense systems. At the final segment, the rocket is likely to perform anti-aircraft maneuvering, in particular with a decrease to extremely small heights.
In the control system of the rocket and its GOS, it is likely that algorithms will be laid that allow it to autonomously identify the location of the main target in the warrant of the enemy. The shape of the rocket (judging by the model) is made taking into account stealth technology. This means that its ESR may be of the order of 0,001 square meter. The detection range of the Zircon is the most powerful radar of foreign surface ships and airplanes of the LLD - 90 – 120 kilometers in free space.
Aging Standard
This data is enough to assess the capabilities of the most modern and powerful air defense system of American Ticonderoga type cruisers and destroyers of the Orly Burk type URB based on the Aegis control system with the most modern Standard-6 SAMs. This rocket (full name RIM-174 SM-6 ERAM) was adopted by the US Navy in the 2013 year. The main difference from the previous versions of the "Standard" is the use of active radar homing, which allows you to effectively hit targets - "fired and forgotten" - without accompanying the firing radar of the carrier ship. This significantly increases the efficiency of its application for low-flying targets, in particular, beyond the horizon, and allows you to work according to external target designation, such as an AEW aircraft. With a starting weight of 1500 kilograms, “Standard-6” beats on 240 kilometers, the maximum height of destruction of aerial targets is 33 kilometers. Rocket flight speed is 3,5 M, approximately 1000 meters per second. The maximum overload during maneuvering is about 50 units. The warhead kinetic (for ballistic purposes) or fragmentation (for aerodynamic) weighing 125 kilograms is twice as large as in the previous series of missiles. The maximum speed of aerodynamic targets is estimated at 800 meters per second. The likelihood of hitting such a target with a single missile under field conditions is defined in 0,95.
Comparison of the Zircon and Standard-6 performance characteristics shows that our rocket hits the US ZUR range in height and almost doubles its maximum aerodynamic speed - 1500 versus 800 meters per second. Conclusion: the American “Standard-6” cannot hit our “swallow”. However, this does not mean that the hypersonic "Zircons" will not shoot. The Aegis system is able to detect such a speed target and provide target designation for firing - it provides the ability to solve missile defense tasks and even combat satellites whose speed is much higher than that of the Zircon anti-ship missiles. Therefore, the shooting will be conducted. It remains to assess the probability of hitting our American missiles.
It should be noted that the probability of damage given in the TTX Zour Zour are usually given for polygon conditions. That is, when the target does not maneuver and moves at a speed that is optimal in order to get into it. In real combat, the probability of defeat is usually much lower. This is due to the peculiarities of the process of guiding missiles, which determine these limitations on the permissible speed of the maneuvering target and the height of its destruction. We will not go into these details. It is important to note that the probability of hitting the Standard-6 missile from a maneuvering aerodynamic target will be affected by the detection range of the active homing system and the accuracy of the missile's release to the target pickup point, the permissible missile overload during maneuvering and the density of the atmosphere, as well as errors in the location and target elements according to the radar target designation and BIUS.
All these factors determine the main thing - whether the missile defense can “choose”, taking into account the target’s maneuvering, the amount of miss to the level at which the combat unit is able to hit it.
Open data on the range of the active seeker of standard-6 missiles is not available. However, based on the weight and size characteristics of the rocket, it can be assumed that the fighter with an EPR of about five square meters can be seen within 15 – 20 kilometers. Accordingly, the target with a 0,001 ESR square meter - the “Zircon” rocket - the range of action of the Standard-6 GOS does not exceed two to three kilometers. Shooting at repelling the attacking PKR will be conducted, of course, on a collision course. That is, the rate of missile convergence will be about 2300 – 2500 meters per second. To accomplish a convergence maneuver, the missile defense system remains less than one second from the moment of target detection. The possibility of reducing the magnitude of the slip is negligible. Especially when it comes to interception at extreme altitudes - about 30 kilometers, where the rarefied atmosphere significantly reduces the maneuvering of missiles. In fact, the Standard-6 SAM to successfully defeat a goal such as Zircon must be brought to it with an error not exceeding the damage zone of its warhead — 8 – 10 meters.
We drown aircraft carriers
Calculations made with these factors in mind show that the probability of a Zirkon missile being hit by one Standard-6 missile defense system is unlikely to exceed 0,02 – 0,03 under the most favorable conditions and target designation directly from the SAM missile. When firing according to external target designation, such as an ARLO aircraft or another ship, taking into account errors in determining the mutual location, as well as the delay time for the exchange of information, the error in the missile target output will be greater, and the probability of hitting it is less, and very significantly - to 0,005 –0,012. In general, it can be stated that the Standard-6, the most effective missile defense system in the Western world, has scanty opportunities for defeating the Zircon.
It may be objected: Americans from a Ticonderoga type cruiser hit a satellite flying at a speed of 27 000 kilometers per hour at an altitude of about 240 kilometers. But he did not maneuver and his position was determined with extremely high accuracy after a long observation, which allowed the missile defense system to be launched to the target without a miss. There will not be such opportunities in repelling the Zircon attack from the defending side, and the PKR will also begin to maneuver.
Let us assess the possibility of destruction of our anti-missile defense missile by means of air defense of a Ticonderoga type cruiser or a destroyer of the Orly Burk type URO. First of all, it should be noted that the detection range of the Zircon radar of a survey of the airspace of these ships can be estimated within 90 – 120 kilometers. That is, the time of the RCC approach to the turn of the task execution from the moment of its appearance on the enemy’s locator will not exceed 1,5 minutes. In the closed loop of the Aegis air defense system, everything for everything 30 – 35 seconds. With two Mk41 DPS, it’s really possible to release no more than four missiles capable of potentially meeting the attacking target, taking into account the remaining time, and hitting it - the probability of hitting the Zircon with the main anti-aircraft cruiser or destroyer URO will be no more than 0,08 – 0,12. Opportunities ZAK self-defense ship - "Vulcan Falanx" in this case is negligible.
Accordingly, two such ships, even with the full use of their air defenses against one Zirkon missile, give the likelihood of their destruction 0,16 – 0,23. That is, the CUG of two cruisers or destroyers of UROs have little chance of destroying even a single Zircon rocket.
EW funds remain. This is active distracting and passive interference. For their time setting since the discovery of the CRP or the work of their GOS is sufficient. The complex use of interference can disrupt the missile's pointing at the target with a decent probability, which, taking into account the operating time of the ship's electronic warfare system, can be assessed in 0,3 – 0,5.
However, when firing at a group target, there is a high probability that the RGB GOS will capture another target in the order. Just as in the Falkland fighting, the English aircraft carrier could, by putting passive interference, divert the Exocset anti-ship missiles sent to it. Her GOS, having lost this target, seized the Atlantic Conveyors container ship, which sank after being hit by a rocket. With the speed of “Zircon”, another ship of the order that captures the RCC GOS will simply not have enough time for effective use of EW facilities.
From these estimates it follows that a salvo of even two Zirkon missiles on the KUG as part of two Ticonderoga type cruisers or destroyers of Orly Burk URO with the probability 0,7 – 0,8 will lead to the destruction or sinking of at least one of the KUG ships. Four-rocket salvo almost guaranteed to destroy both ships. Since the firing range of the Zircon is almost twice as high as that of the Tomahawk anti-ship missiles (about 500 km), there are no chances for the American KUG to win the battle with our cruiser equipped with the Zircon anti-ship missiles. Even with the superiority of Americans in intelligence and surveillance systems.
The situation is slightly better for the American fleet when the KUG of the Russian Federation, led by a cruiser equipped with Zircon anti-ship missiles, is opposed by an aircraft carrier strike group (AUG). The combat radius of carrier-based attack aircraft during operations by groups of 30–40 vehicles does not exceed 600–800 kilometers. This means that it would be very problematic for a pre-emptive strike to deliver a preemptive strike to our ship’s formation with large forces capable of penetrating air defense. Small deck strikes aviation - in pairs and links that can operate at a distance of up to 2000 kilometers with refueling in the air, against our KMG with modern multi-channel air defense systems will be ineffective.
The output of our KUG for a volley and the launch of the 15 – 16 PKR “Zircon” for AUG will be fatal. The probability of failure or sinking of an aircraft carrier will amount to 0,8 – 0,85 with the destruction of two to three escort ships. That is, AUG with such a volley will be surely crushed. According to the open data, after upgrading, the 1144-3 SWD should be placed on 14 cells on the cruisers of the 80 project. With such ammunition PKR "Zircon" our cruiser can destroy up to three AUG US.
However, no one will interfere in the future with placing the Zircon anti-ship missiles on frigates and small rocket ships, which, as you know, have 16 and 8 cells for the Kaliber and Onyx, respectively. This will sharply increase their combat capabilities, make them a serious opponent even for aircraft carrier groups.
Note that in the USA they are intensively developing hypersonic EHVs. But the Americans focused their main efforts on creating hypersonic strategic missiles. Data on the development in the United States of anti-ship hypersonic missiles, such as "Zircon", is not available, at least in the public domain. Therefore, we can assume that the superiority of the Russian Federation in this area will last for quite some time - up to 10 or more years. The question is, how do we use it? Will we be able to fill the fleet with a sufficient number of these anti-ship missiles in a short time? With a miserable state of the economy and sequestration of the state defense order - is unlikely.
The appearance of a serial hypersonic missile will require the development of new ways and forms of fighting at sea, in particular, to destroy the enemy’s surface forces and to ensure their combat stability. In order to adequately enhance the capabilities of the air defense systems of ships, it is likely that a revision of the conceptual foundations of the construction of such systems is necessary. It will take time - at least 10 – 15 years.
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