Why Obama Mosul?
The city of Mosul in Iraq is the unofficial local capital of the Islamic State (IG, prohibited in the Russian Federation). The Iraqi army, Kurdish militia and Shiite militia are launching an attack on the city from October 17. The attack was preceded by air strikes inflicted by an international coalition led by the United States.
Storming the city is a large-scale operation in which more than sixty thousand people participate. IG militants are much less: according to various data, driven by the press, their number ranges from 3 to 9 thousand people. The operation is complicated by the fact that terrorists can, as is their custom, use civilians as a “shield”.
On October 18, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova noted that the operation to liberate Mosul could face a humanitarian catastrophe, since the civilian population has nowhere to go.
“Has anyone considered where the refugees will go, in what number, who will be able to receive them?” What is around is practically scorched earth, and we know how it is scorched. Who will take responsibility for the civilian population who just want to leave these places? "- quotes Zakharov "Lenta.ru".
Meanwhile, the Russian president discussed with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi an operation to free Mosul in a telephone conversation. “The head of the Russian state wished success to the Iraqi army and its allies in achieving the set task. The President of Russia expressed support for the efforts of the Iraqi authorities to eradicate the center of international terrorism, ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, ”the Kremlin press service reports.
Barack Obama’s opinion on the operation to free Mosul is also known.
Return of control of the Iraqi city, Mr. Obama considers the "paramount" for the United States. “The battle for Mosul will be hard, in the course of it there will be both successes and defeats, but nevertheless I am sure that IG will be eliminated and the liberation of Mosul will be another step towards its (IG grouping) complete destruction” - conveys the words of Obama newspaper "Sight".
The newspaper reminds that earlier a military-diplomatic source in Moscow said that the intelligence services of the United States and Saudi Arabia had agreed to provide the militants of the "IG" with the opportunity to safely exit Iraqi Mosul before the start of the assault.
It sounds very strange: from whom are coalition forces going to free Mosul? However, a source without a name is a doubtful source.
Apparently, another thing: before leaving the White House, Mr. Obama decided to arrange for himself the “Dembelsky chord”: to do some kind of victorious and large enough operation that would crown eight years of his US rule. After a series of failures in the Middle East, as a result of which a black cat ran between Washington and its long-time ally Riyadh, while the Russians managed to show themselves in Syria, Obama hopes to consolidate his reputation at least as a leading fighter against terrorism. In Syria, to demonstrate the will to win he did not work, so he took up Iraq. There, at least, everything is much simpler: the Iraqi army against the US has nothing, and Russia is not a hindrance. These reasons probably explain the storming of Mosul under the curtain of the Obama administration (we recall that the attack on Mosul in the USA has been spoken more than once).
In addition, Mr. Obama prepared his escape route: he declared with his usual care that the assault would be "difficult." This means that the Iraqi operation is likely to be continued by the successor to the current president - probably Hillary Clinton.
A geopolitical plan aimed at weakening the image of Russia operating in Syria is not excluded. If the foreign coalition in the air and the local motley army on the ground succeed in completely knocking out terrorists from the city captured in 2014, Washington can say that where the Moscow does not interfere with the war, the liberation goes without a hitch. And it will be difficult to argue with the winners. On the other hand, the attackers have not yet achieved such a big victory. And hardly Obama himself, who hinted at possible “defeats”, thinks that such a victory will come at an easy price. We should not forget about the probable exodus of civilians from the city, that is, about an additional humanitarian catastrophe in the region (which Mrs. Zakharova warned about).
However, with regard to the operation that has begun, some experts express great optimism.
“On the first day of the new operation, October 17, aviation struck 52 airstrikes plus the work of various artillery, writes Abu Anas al-Sham on the site "Free Press". - In the future, the activity of the Air Force of the international coalition will increase, and then the promotion of the Iraqis (whose combat effectiveness raises questions) and other forces will go faster. It is possible that by the American elections (November 8) the flag of Iraq will appear on the central square of Mosul instead of the flag of "IG". Selfies of joyful Iraqis on the next “Hadad Square” where the IG carried out Sharia punishments - this will be quite enough to support the candidate from the Democratic Party ”.
Thus, Abu Anas al-Sham believes that Washington needs the operation to free Mosul in order to promote the democratic candidacy of Hillary Clinton in the elections. If we consider that Barack Obama has shown full support for his “protégé” Hillary, especially after her pneumonia, then this point of view seems to be quite reasonable.
True, the same analyst acknowledges that the forces advancing on Mosul are heterogeneous. Hence the question arises about the likely conflicts between the participants of the assault. However, al-Sham does not think that such friction will be serious, as fighting is underway. Another thing - the conflict after the liberation of the city. Here the aggravation of disagreements is “inevitable”, since the Turks declare autonomy for the Iraqi Turkmen participating in the offensive (three thousand people), and the Kurds say that they must control the city after the victory. The author also recalls about the oil fields: they can also be subject to fights.
However, we add, while talking about it prematurely. The situation in the area of Mosul is complex. Iraqi troops suffer losses: to the east of Mosul, the “IG” suicide bomber attacked an army convoy, killing about seventy soldiers. City partially mined. Those who dig in there use civilians as human shields. Camps for the UN and the Red Cross refugees are quickly filling up: 30 thousands of citizens have already arrived there. The refugees are expected to be several hundred thousand people.
- especially for topwar.ru
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