The pipe is not energy, pipe geopolitical
There is an opinion that the “Turkish Stream” is a geopolitical project rather than an energy one. Thanks to the new pipe, Russia will be able to bypass Ukraine and will get additional access to the commodity markets of Western Europe, and Turkey will begin to buy natural gas much cheaper. Some Western experts are confident that the purpose of laying the pipeline is to visually show the international community a rapprochement between Ankara and Moscow and demonstrate political force.
Andy Aller writes on this topic on the site. "Marketplace".
Russia and Turkey, the author notes, are hardly able to agree when it comes to international relations. But both governments reached an agreement on the construction of a pipeline under the Black Sea. Such a deal will allow Russia to gain additional access to the markets of Western Europe, and Turkey will provide the opportunity to “get gas for cheap”.
At the moment, reminds Aller, Russia supplies most of its natural gas through the territory of Ukraine, which has repeatedly increased gas transit tariffs. Russia has been trying to bypass Ukraine for many years now, and the Turk Stream pipeline would help to resolve this issue.
David Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies, a former special envoy in the field of international energy at the US Department of State, says that price is currently an obstacle to the deal between the Russians and the Turks. First of all, Turkey and Russia should agree on the cost of gas, and then there will be a real possibility of laying a pipe. The cost of gas supplied before was a stumbling block, the expert recalled. It came even to international arbitration. (Indeed, let’s add, the Turkish state-owned company Botas filed a lawsuit against Gazprom with the Stockholm arbitration court last October, demanding a reduction in the price of Russian gas. Until then, the parties failed to agree on a discount. The parties argued over the Botas contract Gazprom Export dated December 2014.)
Therefore, to talk about something prematurely.
Moreover, the price is not the only problem. In November last year, a Turkish aircraft shot down a Russian military aircraft near the Syrian border. Since then, the relations of the two states have cooled.
On the other hand, at the moment any agreement between Russia and Turkey will be perceived as a very important geopolitical event.
Henri Barkey, director of the Middle East program at the Wilson Center, believes that the “Turkish Stream” deal is far less related to energy than to geopolitics.
The goal is not the pipe itself, the expert believes: “The goal is to show that Turkey and Russia are able to get along. Especially after the difficulties in the relationship. And if the pipeline is built only for this, well, that's great. "
What is important here for the Turks is not so much the energy supply of Turkey and Western Europe, as a demonstration of political influence to the rest of the world, Barki said.
As for the plans to build the Turkish Stream, we will add that they are fully synchronized with the end of the terms of the Gazprom contract with Ukraine on transit.
“In accordance with the intergovernmental agreement at the bottom of the Black Sea, the project implementation period is December 2019 of the year. This is fully synchronized with the contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz, which is also valid until the end of 2019, ”he quotes Interfax Minister of Energy Alexander Novak.
Novak also said that gas volumes in Ukraine’s storage facilities are insufficient for the normal passage of the coming winter: “Today, according to our estimates, there is not enough gas to pass the winter in the UGS of Ukraine. During the summer period, about one and a half billion cubic meters of gas was not pumped into it. Today, for the normal passage of the Ukrainian partners must additionally download this volume. "
"For our part, we are ready to fully ensure the transit of gas for European consumers and the supply of gas to Ukraine for injection into underground gas storage facilities," Novak added. But it will take money: "... with the availability of appropriate financial resources, Ukraine will have the necessary volume of gas supplied."
Also Interfax announces further “flows” that Russia is ready to tackle. Today we are talking not only about Turkey, but also about India. Even this trend in Moscow is already considered "promising."
According to the same Novak, Russia considers promising a project to lay a gas pipeline to India. The working group will study it carefully: “We consider this project quite promising, but requiring careful study.”
According to the Russian minister, the project should now be worked out regarding the feasibility study, payback and efficiency.
The minister also pointed out that Russia is interested in supplying liquefied natural gas to India: “It was about supplying not only pipeline gas, but also liquefied gas, and the second phase of the Arctic LNG-2 project.” We invite Indian companies to participate not only in the capital, but also in the supply of LNG for their country. ”
On the terms of the likely "promising" contracts are not reported.
October 17 finally appeared long-awaited information about the discount on Russian gas for Turkey. True, the numbers were not named again. But it is clear that the discount will definitely be.
The discount for Turkey will depend on the volume of consumption, said Alexander Novak. “And there is still to be finalized the formula, which to date has so far only been formulated in the form of principles. In general, we are ready to move. Now work between our companies will be continued, ”the official said. "Lenta.ru".
By the way, on the same day, the press reported on the settlement of price gas disagreements between Russia and Belarus.
In an interview with the Russia 24 TV channel, the same Alexander Novak, who in recent days had to make a lot of statements and where to go, said that Russia and Belarus had reached a compromise on the cost of gas supply.
“As for the situation with the debt for gas, which arose this year, I can now say that we have found a solution. All conditions are stipulated, the key of these conditions is that all debts will be repaid, and gas will be paid at a price in accordance with the agreement according to the formula that was in effect until that time, ”the minister said. "Russian newspaper".
The publication reminds that negotiations on the price of gas supplies of the Russian Federation and Belarus are from the beginning of 2016 year. In early October, our Ministry of Energy reported a large debt of Belarus (of the order of 270-300 million dollars). But in Minsk, the debt was not recognized, pointing to the injustice of the contract price in 132,77 dollars per thousand cubic meters.
As a result, as we see, Russia not only does not reduce its dependence on the global commodity environment, but, on the contrary, is increasing it, getting ready to draw endless “streams” to all sides of the globe up to India and supply gas with discounts. Regarding Ankara, it makes no sense even to think that the Turks will not claim a big discount for themselves: otherwise there will simply be no “flow”.
The volume of gas supplies for export has greatly increased during the years of the rule of Gorbachev, Yeltsin and Putin. Shipments abroad from 1985 to 2015 quantified more than doubled. By statistical data to Gazprom Export, in 1985, 69,4 billion cubic meters of gas went to non-CIS countries, in 2000, 130,3 billion cubic meters, and in 2015, 158,6 billion cubic meters. m. Most gas goes to Western European countries (on the 1 location Germany) and to Turkey.
Andy Aller writes on this topic on the site. "Marketplace".
Russia and Turkey, the author notes, are hardly able to agree when it comes to international relations. But both governments reached an agreement on the construction of a pipeline under the Black Sea. Such a deal will allow Russia to gain additional access to the markets of Western Europe, and Turkey will provide the opportunity to “get gas for cheap”.
At the moment, reminds Aller, Russia supplies most of its natural gas through the territory of Ukraine, which has repeatedly increased gas transit tariffs. Russia has been trying to bypass Ukraine for many years now, and the Turk Stream pipeline would help to resolve this issue.
David Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies, a former special envoy in the field of international energy at the US Department of State, says that price is currently an obstacle to the deal between the Russians and the Turks. First of all, Turkey and Russia should agree on the cost of gas, and then there will be a real possibility of laying a pipe. The cost of gas supplied before was a stumbling block, the expert recalled. It came even to international arbitration. (Indeed, let’s add, the Turkish state-owned company Botas filed a lawsuit against Gazprom with the Stockholm arbitration court last October, demanding a reduction in the price of Russian gas. Until then, the parties failed to agree on a discount. The parties argued over the Botas contract Gazprom Export dated December 2014.)
Therefore, to talk about something prematurely.
Moreover, the price is not the only problem. In November last year, a Turkish aircraft shot down a Russian military aircraft near the Syrian border. Since then, the relations of the two states have cooled.
On the other hand, at the moment any agreement between Russia and Turkey will be perceived as a very important geopolitical event.
Henri Barkey, director of the Middle East program at the Wilson Center, believes that the “Turkish Stream” deal is far less related to energy than to geopolitics.
The goal is not the pipe itself, the expert believes: “The goal is to show that Turkey and Russia are able to get along. Especially after the difficulties in the relationship. And if the pipeline is built only for this, well, that's great. "
What is important here for the Turks is not so much the energy supply of Turkey and Western Europe, as a demonstration of political influence to the rest of the world, Barki said.
As for the plans to build the Turkish Stream, we will add that they are fully synchronized with the end of the terms of the Gazprom contract with Ukraine on transit.
“In accordance with the intergovernmental agreement at the bottom of the Black Sea, the project implementation period is December 2019 of the year. This is fully synchronized with the contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz, which is also valid until the end of 2019, ”he quotes Interfax Minister of Energy Alexander Novak.
Novak also said that gas volumes in Ukraine’s storage facilities are insufficient for the normal passage of the coming winter: “Today, according to our estimates, there is not enough gas to pass the winter in the UGS of Ukraine. During the summer period, about one and a half billion cubic meters of gas was not pumped into it. Today, for the normal passage of the Ukrainian partners must additionally download this volume. "
"For our part, we are ready to fully ensure the transit of gas for European consumers and the supply of gas to Ukraine for injection into underground gas storage facilities," Novak added. But it will take money: "... with the availability of appropriate financial resources, Ukraine will have the necessary volume of gas supplied."
Also Interfax announces further “flows” that Russia is ready to tackle. Today we are talking not only about Turkey, but also about India. Even this trend in Moscow is already considered "promising."
According to the same Novak, Russia considers promising a project to lay a gas pipeline to India. The working group will study it carefully: “We consider this project quite promising, but requiring careful study.”
According to the Russian minister, the project should now be worked out regarding the feasibility study, payback and efficiency.
The minister also pointed out that Russia is interested in supplying liquefied natural gas to India: “It was about supplying not only pipeline gas, but also liquefied gas, and the second phase of the Arctic LNG-2 project.” We invite Indian companies to participate not only in the capital, but also in the supply of LNG for their country. ”
On the terms of the likely "promising" contracts are not reported.
October 17 finally appeared long-awaited information about the discount on Russian gas for Turkey. True, the numbers were not named again. But it is clear that the discount will definitely be.
The discount for Turkey will depend on the volume of consumption, said Alexander Novak. “And there is still to be finalized the formula, which to date has so far only been formulated in the form of principles. In general, we are ready to move. Now work between our companies will be continued, ”the official said. "Lenta.ru".
By the way, on the same day, the press reported on the settlement of price gas disagreements between Russia and Belarus.
In an interview with the Russia 24 TV channel, the same Alexander Novak, who in recent days had to make a lot of statements and where to go, said that Russia and Belarus had reached a compromise on the cost of gas supply.
“As for the situation with the debt for gas, which arose this year, I can now say that we have found a solution. All conditions are stipulated, the key of these conditions is that all debts will be repaid, and gas will be paid at a price in accordance with the agreement according to the formula that was in effect until that time, ”the minister said. "Russian newspaper".
The publication reminds that negotiations on the price of gas supplies of the Russian Federation and Belarus are from the beginning of 2016 year. In early October, our Ministry of Energy reported a large debt of Belarus (of the order of 270-300 million dollars). But in Minsk, the debt was not recognized, pointing to the injustice of the contract price in 132,77 dollars per thousand cubic meters.
As a result, as we see, Russia not only does not reduce its dependence on the global commodity environment, but, on the contrary, is increasing it, getting ready to draw endless “streams” to all sides of the globe up to India and supply gas with discounts. Regarding Ankara, it makes no sense even to think that the Turks will not claim a big discount for themselves: otherwise there will simply be no “flow”.
The volume of gas supplies for export has greatly increased during the years of the rule of Gorbachev, Yeltsin and Putin. Shipments abroad from 1985 to 2015 quantified more than doubled. By statistical data to Gazprom Export, in 1985, 69,4 billion cubic meters of gas went to non-CIS countries, in 2000, 130,3 billion cubic meters, and in 2015, 158,6 billion cubic meters. m. Most gas goes to Western European countries (on the 1 location Germany) and to Turkey.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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