Strategic nuclear forces of Russia and the United States. Today and tomorrow

45
Strategic nuclear forces of Russia and the United States. Today and tomorrow


Part I. Land Component



The aggravation of the political confrontation between Russia and the United States, which coincided in time with the active phase of renewal of the national nuclear triad, heightened public interest in the strategic nuclear forces (SNF) of the leading powers. In the near future, it will only be heated, as the American triad enters the update phase.

Nuclear weapons (NW) there are nine countries: the USA, Russia, Great Britain, France and China legally, and India, Israel, Pakistan and the DPRK - illegally: the first three did not sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and North Korea withdrew from it. The arsenals of Russia and the United States, despite significant reductions, are overwhelmingly superior to the rest. When discussing the current and future nuclear arsenals of these countries, one cannot fail to consider briefly the terms of the START-3 agreement, since it largely determines their appearance.

The START-3 agreement was signed in April 2010 of the year and entered into force in February 2011. The term of the current contract is limited to February 2021 of the year, but it is envisaged to extend it, by mutual agreement, for another five years. A cautious discussion of the prospects of treaties in the field of reducing offensive weapons is underway, but it will be hampered by reasons both subjective (deterioration of relations) and objective nature - for example, further reductions increase the role of tactical nuclear weapons, under which there are no clear agreements. connect to the negotiation process; the role of missile defense and promising non-nuclear high-precision weapons. A positive thing is that the discussion of the extension of the existing START-3 agreement has begun.

The goal of START-3 is to reach the levels of February 2018 of the year:

- 700 deployed carriers, i.e., total deployed land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers;

- 800 carriers, including unopened, that is stored or intended for testing;

- 1550 warheads, counting warheads on ICBMs and SLBMs and bombers. The latter are counted not only as one carrier, but also as one charge.

At the moment, according to data published as of 1 March 2016, the parties are close to the required indicators, and in some places have already reached them. Thus, the number of deployed carriers in Russia is 521, and the number of warheads in the US is 1481. Paradoxically, since September 2013, the number of warheads in the Russian arsenal has almost continuously increased - this fact is explained by the fact that new missile systems, which are equipped with a shared warhead with individual targeting units (MIRV), come into service, outrunning the old monoblock ones. To reach the limitations laid down in START-3, the domestic military will have to complete the arsenal update (this process is almost continuous in our tradition) in one and a half years, then carry out active work on the decommissioning of obsolete complexes, while providing them with a worthy replacement .

Traditionally, the strategic nuclear missile forces (SMF), the land component of the nuclear triad, are the basis of domestic strategic nuclear forces. The importance of the Strategic Missile Forces is emphasized by the fact that this is a separate branch of the military, which reports directly to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. In addition, they are the first and most successfully undergoing modernization.

Sword bringing peace

Exact data on the composition of the Strategic Missile Forces in Russia are not published, but the region is relatively widely covered in the media, and general conclusions can be drawn from open national and foreign publications.

The armament of the Strategic Missile Forces consists of land-based ICBMs installed in coal-fired launchers (silos) and on mobile ground-based missile systems (PGRK), the second one is slightly larger. Both options are different answers to the question of maximum survival in the attack and, as a consequence, the provision of retaliation, the inevitable threat of which is the basis of the whole concept of nuclear deterrence. Modern silos have the highest security, and, given their placement far from each other, the enemy will have to spend on each one on the warhead, and to guarantee (a technical failure of an attacking ICBM or a significant miss) - perhaps several. The operation of the rocket mine is relatively simple and cheap. The disadvantage is that the coordinates of all silos to the enemy are probably known and they are potentially vulnerable to high-precision non-nuclear weapons. However, this problem is still relevant for a relatively distant future, since modern strategic cruise missiles have a subsonic speed and it is almost impossible to hit them all at once with them.

PGRK, on ​​the contrary, are supposed to survive not for stability, but for mobility, being dispersed in a threatening period, they become weakly vulnerable to pinpoint strikes, and they can be effectively dealt with by massive strikes at home-based areas, preferably with high-power charges. The stability of the mobile platform to the damaging factors of a nuclear explosion is much lower than that of a mine, but even in this case, the enemy will have to spend a large number of its warheads to defeat them reliably.

Above, we considered the worst option. The optimum is not a counterstrike, but a counterstrike, in which the missiles of the attacked side will have time to take off before the enemy warheads fall on their home areas. Ensuring this is a question of missile warning systems, the management system of the SNF and the speed with which they are deployed, which is a separate big topic.

From 1987 to 2005, the year in Russia in limited operation was a small number of combat railway missile systems (BZHRK) "Molodets" (12 trains were released, three PUs in each) - the only BZHRK brought to serial production and combat duty. From a tactical point of view, BZHRK can be considered a special case of the PGRK: the main difference is the use of an extensive rail network for dispersal during a threatening period. On the one hand, this provides high mobility, on the other hand, the use of civilian infrastructure complicates security issues and, to a certain extent, “substitutes” for the first blow large transport hubs, i.e. cities. The issue of visibility for reconnaissance assets is also painful, since, once discovered, the train is no longer easy to hide again - for obvious reasons.

At the design stage is a new BZHRK "Barguzin". The use of smaller missiles will reduce the weight, which will increase the secrecy - in contrast to the "Good fellow", he will not need three diesel locomotives at once. However, the prospects of Barguzin are still unclear, since criticism, including from the customer, is subject to operational difficulties and large costs in terms of budget cuts, with disputed advantages over the widely used wheeled PGRK.

Now they are the basis of the Strategic Missile Forces, namely the large Topol ICBM family: PC-12М Topol, PC-12М2 Topol-M and PC-24 "Yars". The original Topoli began to take up combat duty since 1985, and are now being removed from service. It is planned to end this process at the beginning of the next decade. Missile launches are carried out regularly, both to confirm the fleet's health and to test new technical solutions (given that they are still planned to be destroyed, the flying laboratory in this situation goes "for nothing"). According to various estimates, such PGRKs remain in service from 54 to 72: given the continuous process of transition of the Topol to non-deployed and subsequent recycling, it is difficult to accurately determine their number at a specific point in time.

The PC-12М2 Topol-M complexes (the start of deployment is 2006 year) and the PC-24 Yars (the start of deployment is 2010 year) are the development of Topol with an advanced rocket. In view of the slightly increased mass, the number of axles increased from seven to eight. Between themselves "Topol-M" and "Yars" are close - the most important is the difference in combat equipment. If the Topol-M, like the original Topol, is equipped with one 550 kT warhead, then the Yars is equipped with a three-unit or four-block 150 – 300 kT (according to different estimates). The use of a single warhead on the Topol-M was due to the fact that it was created taking into account the requirements of START-2, which prohibited the complexes with MIRVT IN. After the failure of the START-2, it was rapidly upgraded due to the pledged technical reserve.

Before the transition to Yarsy, only 18 units of the Topol-M PGRK were deployed. However, his missile was widely (supplied by 60 units) used since the 1998 of the year to replace the IBR UR-100Н УТТХ (PC-18А), with an exhausted service life, in the silo. "Yars" deployed in the mobile version of at least 63. In addition, they are used for the ongoing replacement of UR-100Н in silo - those no less than 10.

PGRK RS-26 “Frontier” with a small rocket and six-axle chassis is created. Smaller dimensions will drastically increase the maneuverability of the complex, since Yarsy is still too big for ordinary roads. According to the statements, "Frontier" is already ready for deployment, but it may be limited to political issues, because, according to the United States, it can be used for targets at a distance significantly less than 5500 km, and this violates the Treaty on the Elimination of Medium and Short Range Missiles.

In addition to "Topol-M" and "Yars" in service there are also ICBMs exclusively mine-based. UR-100Н УТТХ, which were put on duty in 1979, are almost decommissioned - no more than 20 – 30 units are left, and this process will be completed in the next two or three years. The P-36М2 “Voevoda” (PC-20В, better known by the sonorous American name SS-18 “Satan”) - the largest ICBM in the world, together with the powerful 8,3 MT combat unit, or ten light 800 CT unit warheads. The P-36M2 took up combat duty in 1988 year. Currently, 46 missiles of this type are in service. At the beginning of the next decade, they should be replaced by the promising heavy Sarmat RS-28, also capable of carrying at least eight warheads, including the promising maneuvering ones.

In Russia, strategic missile forces are an essential part of strategic nuclear forces. Priority in equipment is becoming more and more PGRK, with high stability, but retained and silos - as an economical option and as a means of deploying missiles of particularly high power. In the Strategic Rocket Forces not only there are more carriers than on navy, but they also carry a larger number of warheads. At the same time, the Strategic Missile Forces are successfully saturated with new technology and, as far as one can judge, they are safely mastering it in numerous exercises.

In the fleet, the development of new SLBMs and SSBNs seems to be accompanied by problems and delays. The submarine fleet continues to pursue the traditional illness of the Soviet Navy - a low floating rate (the percentage of time spent at sea). In combination with a reduction in the number of personnel, this leads to the fact that one or two SSBNs are simultaneously on patrol, which is incomparable with many dozens of PGRKs and silos in readiness.

Ugly ducklings

In the US, the land part of the triad is, in contrast to ours, the weakest component. This is also manifested in the fact that the mine-based land-based ICBMs are located in the structure of the Air Force - in the Global Impact Command there are the so-called 20 Air Forces, which, respectively, include “Missile Squadrons” (literally Missile Squadron), combined into "Rocket wings".

Armed with the US Armed Forces is the only type of ICBM - LGM-30G "Minuteman III". The first Minuteman III stood on duty back in the distant 1970 year and for their time became a revolutionary breakthrough - they were used for the first time by the SPH IN. Of course, since then a number of modernization programs have passed, primarily aimed at increasing the reliability and safety of operation. One of the most serious "improvements" has deprived Minuteman III MWR IN - instead of three 350 kT warheads, one was installed with 300 kT. Officially, this action of the United States demonstrated the defensive nature of its nuclear weapons - in the first place, the MIRPT IN are useful in delivering a first strike, when one of its carriers can destroy several enemy ones. However, the real reason was probably primarily to optimize the distribution of the “pool” available in START-3: without these measures, the “holy” - SSBNs and Trident II missiles would have to be trimmed.

"New" warheads were removed from the LGM-118 "Peacekeeper" - a much newer (beginning of the deployment - 1986 year) and advanced ICBMs. Each Peacemaker could deliver not three, but ten warheads with greater accuracy and to a somewhat longer range. He was deservedly considered the American counterpart of the Soviet "Satan". However, difficulties in creating and ending the Cold War led to the Peacekeeper being released in a rather small series - only 50 was put on duty. For the same reasons, the US programs to create the PGRK and BZHRK were not implemented. At the end of 1980-x, largely influenced by Soviet developments, the BRZHK with Peacekeeper missiles and the PGRK with the new small MGM-134 Midgetman rocket were in the active phase of development. Both programs were closed in 1991 – 1992, at the prototype testing stage. Peacekeeper itself was decommissioned in 2005 year as part of measures to fulfill the conditions of START-2.

By 2018, the United States plans to leave 400 Minuteman III in service. To fulfill this condition, 50 units will be transferred to "non-deployed" - the missiles are sent to the warehouse, and silos are filled. Thus, the ground-based ICBMs occupy a significant proportion (more than half) in the carrier pool, while no one plans to increase the number of SSBNs and bombers. However, in this case, the naval component accounts for more than two times more warheads.

The main task of the land component in the new conditions of the United States is to “create a threat” - for the reliable defeat of silos, the enemy will have to spend even more warheads than is stored in them. With this approach, the requirements for rockets are small - the main thing is for the enemy to believe that they are able to take off. However, even this sooner or later may become too difficult for Minuteman III. Their replacement program is called Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD). The possibility of creating a PGRK or BRZHK was estimated, but in the end they settled on the cheapest and simplest placement in the silo. Active funding for the creation of GBSD began in 2016. The cost of building, manufacturing and upgrading ground infrastructure is estimated at 62,3 billion dollars, stretched over three decades. According to the plans, the first “squadron” of GBSD will be on duty in the 2029 year, and it will be possible to completely replace Minuteman III with the 2036, but most defense programs are characterized by delays.

However, it is unlikely that GBSD will be implemented in full - with the conclusion of further agreements on the reduction of nuclear weapons, the American land component is the first in line for reductions. And now, with the relatively comfortable START-3 format, there are proposals to reduce the proportion of the land component or even completely abandon it in favor of more stable SSBNs and multi-tasking bombers.

Abbreviations used:
Strategic Nuclear Forces - Strategic Nuclear Forces
Nuclear weapons - nuclear weapons
NPT - Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
ICBM - intercontinental ballistic missile
SLBM - submarine ballistic missile
RGCH IN - shared head with blocks of individual guidance \
Strategic Missile Forces - Strategic Missile Forces
Silos - mine launchers
PGRK - mobile soil missile systems
BZHRK - combat railway missile system
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  1. +4
    1 October 2016 07: 57
    Everyone understands that the first time the rocket launch button is pressed, the world's population will cease to exist, so you should not even think about this threat to anyone.
    1. +9
      1 October 2016 08: 37
      Absolute nonsense, everyone will not die, even in the nuclear strike zone, the earth will not burst, will not leave orbit, after the exchange of nuclear strikes the war will continue with conventional weapons, where the winner will be revealed.
      1. +6
        1 October 2016 10: 27
        After the exchange of nuclear strikes, massive fires will begin, which will lead to smoke and, as a result, prolonged severe cooling, do not forget about radioactivity. Irreversible processes in ecology will begin, etc., the nuclear winter was calculated and modeled several decades ago by Soviet and American scientists.
        1. +3
          1 October 2016 11: 37
          Now there are many analysts, where they indicate that the consequences of a nuclear war were exaggerated and were used by both sides for informational and psychological warfare. Well, of course, it won’t happen if God forbid it happens, but it seems that life and even war by conventional means can and will continue.

          The second factor - the parties may not dare to take a massive nuclear strike in a limited conflict - just as Germany did not dare to use chemical weapons in the Second World War
          1. 0
            3 October 2016 14: 04
            they used it in the 1st World War, so they were immediately warned that they won’t find it enough. Once they used it in the 2nd, they prepared an answer, but our transport with a chemical answer managed to sink the Hans. After that, to the question Chem. weapons never returned
      2. +1
        7 October 2016 12: 56
        Well, yes, in the USA, wherever you throw a megalopolis, they will suffer more in Russia, with its boundless territories you can survive
      3. +3
        7 October 2016 19: 20
        Yak28
        Absolute nonsense, everyone will not die, even in the nuclear strike zone, the earth will not burst, will not leave orbit, after the exchange of nuclear strikes the war will continue with conventional weapons, where the winner will be revealed.

        I like one expert like you already answered this ... nuclear power plants, where are you going to go? But the same nuclear submarines with which reactors do not tell me? Chem plants, laboratories, burial grounds, of which there are thousands around the world ... And fires around the world ... who will extinguish them, who will eliminate the consequences of accidents at nuclear power plants, who will heal people from anthrax, plague and so on (and viruses with new strains).
        And for a snack- And volcanoes awakening wherever you go, wise guy? And especially a series of super volcanoes like Yellowstone? And there the released energy is several orders of magnitude higher than the entire aggregate nuclear stockpile of powers. And so on the little things, tsunamis, typhoons, earthquakes, floods, hl
        total infection of land and ocean, etc. ... who will fight there, dear? Head think a little and do not write nonsense.
    2. +8
      1 October 2016 09: 47
      Quote: Spartanez300
      the first time you press the rocket launch button, the world's population will cease to exist
      This is now, until the issues of MLM and ABM have been resolved at 80-90%. But the Amy is working hard on this. And we also have to deal with these issues. Everyone wants to live!
      ,
      so do not even think about this threat to anyone else.
      But this is a completely vain statement. If we WERE NOT THINKING ABOUT this, we would have long suffered the fate of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Thanks to Stalin, Kurchatov, Beria, the Queen and thousands of other statesmen who did not allow the development of the Japanese version for our country. * Drop shot * and * Incredible * did exist.
      1. +2
        3 October 2016 14: 13
        probably means the plan "Unthinkable" in 1945 Roosevelt did not support it. Since 1944 they tried to bomb our military columns, drowned our transports, but often received cabbage soup (kozhedub shot down 5 amerov planes during the war). did not have time, so Churchill was so brave. and after the passage of the winners of the 52 IS-3 tanks in the parade, the allies became completely sad
    3. +7
      1 October 2016 10: 20
      Quote: Spartanez300
      Everyone understands that the first time the rocket launch button is pressed, the world's population will cease to exist, so you should not even think about this threat to anyone.


      What in our time are strategic offensive arms, strategic offensive arms ...
      Run to upgrade your weapons
    4. +3
      1 October 2016 15: 44
      That's the whole point, that this thought is constantly thrown to us by propagandists. And on both sides. There will be no end to life in a nuclear war. Yes, up to 2 billion people will die, probably much less, but radiation from a nuclear explosion decreases much faster than from a reactor explosion, due to a different isotopic composition of the products. In Hiroshima and Nagasaki, recovery began in a short time and for decades people live normally. Hibakusha lived to be a hundred years old. And now there are still living ones.
      This propaganda is needed in order to frighten people and cover up real preparations for war. Remember how on the talk show foreigners are already furious when ours talk about the readiness of pin.stan to unleash it. Like - only Russians can assume this, we are civilized people, we understand that this is the end and we will never start a war, but crazy Russians can!
      In fact, those who are preparing this war understand that they have a lot of chances to survive and hope to flourish in that post-war world. This is why such propaganda about the "end of life" is dangerous - to intimidate the peoples with it, but also to reassure them that since everything is so hopeless, no one will go for it either. And they themselves are preparing to bang.
      1. +4
        1 October 2016 19: 02
        Optimist! Decades have passed since Hiroshima and Nagasaki! Decades of endless progress in the development of nuclear weapons! The main means of destruction have a power of the order of 700 ctn, and up to 1,2 ctn! So there is no optimism! If anyone bangs, the answer will fly unambiguously! And there is no chance to survive for the exceptional, one hell.
        1. +1
          2 October 2016 18: 50
          Modern charges contain several kilograms of plutonium and uranium, three-stage thermonuclear charges with a shell of U-238 are very rare, and the pollution of the territory after high-altitude explosions is much less than in Hiroshima. The only danger is the defeat of the blocks of nuclear power plants containing tens of tons of fissile materials.
      2. 0
        3 October 2016 14: 18
        Yes, everyone will not die out, but it will be very sad. Mohenjo-daro still glows. Although, after the explosion of the Tsar bomb, the blast wave circled the earth 3 times. The first time it went 36 hours 27 minutes. and nothing, we live. only the amount of vitamins in plant food is reduced to 3 times since the first nuclear weapons test
    5. 0
      31 January 2017 17: 25
      The fact of the matter is that it does not stop. A minority will die directly from the explosions, most from radiation sickness in the following months. And another picture will be in the southern hemisphere, where there will be less radiation and a nuclear winter less severe. With the presence of sensible bunkers, hundreds of thousands of people could very well survive there. Of course, slide into feudalism or even further, most likely mutate, but will not disappear as a species. In the northern hemisphere, where all the nuclear powers are located, it is at least naive to survive.
      1. 0
        15 August 2017 04: 58
        By extrapolation, up to 500 million die, not more. What will happen next is unknown, but according to American published models, there will be nothing extraordinary. Trivia on the background of the establishment of world domination by the survivors.
  2. +2
    1 October 2016 08: 47
    The quantity and development of nuclear weapons is certainly good, but whoever creates a new weapon more powerful than nuclear will be on horseback, for example, a climate weapon that can cause earthquakes anywhere in the world, or a weapon that can transmit explosive energy at any distance, for example, detonates a bomb at our training ground, and energy from an explosion, a blast wave formed in another country. Today is fantastic, and tomorrow there is no wink
  3. +4
    1 October 2016 09: 02
    Quote: Yak28
    Absolute nonsense, everyone will not die, even in the nuclear strike zone, the earth will not burst, will not leave orbit, after the exchange of nuclear strikes the war will continue with conventional weapons, where the winner will be revealed.


    And how long will it be able to continue if all the big cities, with factories, steamboats, warehouses are destroyed?
    Where will the energy come from (thermal, electric, any) if the refineries, thermal power plants, and nuclear power plants are pulverized?
    No, the army with swords will be able to fight on foot, only the daily passage will be at the division 10-15 km if with convoys.
    Civilization will be thrown back to the beginning of the 19th century. Without oil, atom and coal. For the sake of interest, take an interest in how much time you will need to cut and chop wood to heat your apartment. And this, home delivery is at best cartage.
    1. +2
      1 October 2016 09: 40
      I agree with you. All scientific potential will be destroyed, that part of the population that, not the fact that it will survive, will be cast back into the Stone Age. For example, I, for one, will not be able to recreate the technology of steelmaking, that is, everything is needed, it will start from the beginning .....
    2. +4
      1 October 2016 09: 44
      Firstly, nuclear war will not affect all countries, even less than half, and secondly, you know how many factories, factories and military equipment Yeltsin destroyed
      his team, here the damage is comparable to hundreds of nuclear weapons strikes
    3. 0
      2 October 2016 08: 08
      If nuclear weapons are used, most of the United States, almost all of Western Europe and part of Russia will be destroyed. A significant part of the world will not be affected by direct defeat, so there the whole civilization, i.e. existing infrastructure (with the exception of part of the population) will not be affected. There will be no stone age - only for participants in the conflict.
      Well, unless of course the whole world does not give a hitch about the type of nuclear winter.
  4. +3
    1 October 2016 10: 22
    Seeing the name, I thought it might be interesting analytics. As a result, the article, which is called "gallop across Europe" with a bunch of bloopers. I.e About nothing. Alas, but unfortunately you can not put cons.

    One pearl is worth
    So, the number of deployed carriers in Russia is 521, and the number of warheads in the United States is 1481.

    A lot of inaccuracies, especially in dates
    1. 0
      1 October 2016 12: 35
      good day ! Well ide own opinion? request not tired of verbal masturbation engage. tongue your vision. Well, all are not gynecologists, but just look. This is clear . yourself what? I see so and ............. it was so ............. and today ............ in general ........ okay, I'm not a paved village. the author of the figures does not write those. I make mistakes in the word fence. and on the error fence. misspelled word "star". feel Crazy, rabid bloody dregs!
      What are you? Death? Or healing cripples?
      Swipe, lead me to him
      I want to see this person laughing
      1. AUL
        0
        2 October 2016 19: 18
        megavolt823did you want to say something? Try again, maybe you can do something. So far, apart from emotions, nothing. Yes and emotions are incomprehensible.
        1. 0
          2 October 2016 22: 44
          Dear I contacted Old26.
          1. AUL
            0
            5 October 2016 15: 57
            If you write only for someone specific - then this is through a personal! And here is the general access to the written.
  5. +3
    1 October 2016 10: 45
    Quote: Yak28
    Firstly, nuclear war will not affect all countries, even less than half, and secondly, you know how many factories, factories and military equipment Yeltsin destroyed
    his team, here the damage is comparable to hundreds of nuclear weapons strikes

    Can we talk about Detroit? If flood, so for an adult.

    1. I do not care how many plants he destroyed. Knowledge and personnel survived. And most importantly, energy production has survived. No matter how many plants survive, it is important how many coal mines, thermal power plants, nuclear power plants survive. Civilization = the number of kilowatts of energy per person.
    2. Yes, you are an optimist. What do you think, neutral warheads will not get? Hell no. They will dump it on everyone so that no one strong remains on the planet. We will all plant potatoes / pineapples, and tune horses, deer and camels.
  6. +1
    1 October 2016 17: 30
    Quote: armored optimist
    That's the whole point, that this thought is constantly thrown to us by propagandists. And on both sides. There will be no end to life in a nuclear war. Yes, up to 2 billion people will die, probably much less, but radiation from a nuclear explosion decreases much faster than from a reactor explosion, due to a different isotopic composition of the products.

    In fact, those who are preparing this war understand that they have a lot of chances to survive and hope to flourish in that post-war world. This is why such propaganda about the "end of life" is dangerous - to intimidate the peoples with it, but also to reassure them that since everything is so hopeless, no one will go for it either. And they themselves are preparing to bang.

    The fact that several generations have been trying to intimidate - yes, there is such a thing. It is easy to control the "intimidated" people. He, the people, in order to get rid of what scares will go to great lengths.
    Yes, not everyone will die. But here is what they will be prosper in the post-war world - here let me disagree with you. And what it means to prosper.

    Okay, the radiation will go away, but the basic infrastructure necessary for prosperity will be destroyed. And there are no plants, power plants - there are no means of prosperity. Everything will not be so curly. And in the West they perfectly understood and understand. And it is unlikely that any of the powers that be will suddenly abandon the benefits of civilization, for the mythical hope of victory in the war.
    And preparations for the war went on and on and will go on. The question is that both sides after such a strike will not be able to "flourish" and still dominate. The place may be occupied by others, less affected.
    The topic is very capacious, but also does not correspond to the topic of the material.
    1. 0
      1 October 2016 17: 36
      Why will all power plants and mines disappear? Most of the warheads are designed to destroy weapons, sorry for the pun. There will be a lot of industrial and energy facilities, transport infrastructure, and runway runways especially. Arsonists can live in shelters with comfort for a long enough time. And then build your own villas in the least affected areas.
      1. 0
        1 October 2016 17: 39
        And to prosper, it means to seize more and more material values ​​and territories. I hope you understand that they will not lose their tasty grub and easy life?
        1. +1
          1 October 2016 18: 28
          The USA, in terms of TMV management, faced a completely different problem:
          - WWII and WWII were conducted in Europe and Asia, without affecting the national territory of the United States (with the exception of the Hawaiian and Aleutian islands);
          - US ground forces (bearing the greatest losses in the war) appeared on the theater of operations for hat analysis (Europe in 1917, Normandy in 1944 and Okinawa in 1945);
          - up to this point, the United States in the war raked the heat with the wrong hands of the Entente and the USSR;
          - The US economy, which was not destroyed, during the WWII and WWII and immediately after them grew at a frantic pace;
          - The United States was the sole beneficiary of WWII and WWII.

          During the nuclear missile TMV, the United States will undergo total destruction for the first time in its history, which will turn them into a third-rate power at any outcome of the war - win, lose or draw.

          The United States did not subscribe to such a leadership. Nuclear weapons are useless to them, except as a scarecrow until the outbreak of war. Therefore, the US has already lost TMV without even starting it. This is what guides Russia, violating the interests of the United States in Ukraine, in Syria, and then everywhere.

          PS From this for ukrov, balts and other limitrops it directly follows that America will not help them bully
      2. +1
        1 October 2016 20: 21
        Yes, nothing of industry will remain, all industrial and political centers will be destroyed. it’s not a fact that the S-400 patriots, etc., can shoot down warheads — this was all checked on mock-ups and single targets — I think most of the warheads will fly from both sides. even though radiation will decrease relatively quickly. but what will be the level in the first months, because at the same time more than a thousand charges will be blown up, and the French and the British will also be launched, and there can be any scenario.
        everyone’s goals are already defined and scheduled. I think TMV will be the last in the history of mankind ....
        1. +1
          1 October 2016 21: 30
          She will not be the last. Will drive humanity into the Stone Age - this is true, but there will not be the last. Our civilization is not the first, and not the last. There were others and will be again if we lack intelligence.
          1. 0
            1 October 2016 22: 34
            Quote: vvv-73
            She will not be the last.

  7. 0
    1 October 2016 19: 31
    Quote: armored optimist
    Why will all power plants and mines disappear? Most of the warheads are designed to destroy weapons, sorry for the pun. There will be a lot of industrial and energy facilities, transport infrastructure, and runway runways especially. Arsonists can live in shelters with comfort for a long enough time. And then build your own villas in the least affected areas.

    Most of it is not intended to destroy US weapons. They, unlike us, rely on preventive rather than OVU and VU. That is, by the time our missiles reach enemy territory, the mines will be empty. And what remains? Only a blow to the infrastructure of the enemy country. There were materials on the network about exemplary goals in other countries. So, there EMNIP the number of goals is approximately the following:
    - large cities and industrial centers - 37
    - large power plants - 25
    - large transport hubs - 22
    - 2 dozens of military bases, including naval, which are usually on the outskirts of large cities
    - 6 dozens of other large facilities.

    And why destroy everything? Both the United States and Russia have a unified power supply system. It is enough to violate the integrity of the system, destroying large ES and all. Sense in plants if there is no energy? If there is no coal and oil production due to lack of electricity ...

    So they can survive in shelters, perhaps even build villas, but that's all ...
  8. 0
    2 October 2016 01: 05
    There is an opinion that a softened version of the Third World War has already passed - referring to hundreds of nuclear explosions made by the United States and the USSR as part of atomic weapon tests. Moreover, the explosions were in all environments - and in the atmosphere, and on the ground, and underground and water, and even in space. Of course, the factor of fires and other disasters was not taken into account here, but if we take the purely damaging factors of nuclear weapons - over the years no one has had millions of mutants and the population as a whole has not suffered - except for those who, by chance, were not far from the landfills.
    Therefore, I think that a full-scale conflict will naturally result in colossal damage to industry and infrastructure, millions if not billions of victims - that is, everything that happens in a world war with "conventional" weapons in at least several years will be done in just one blow. But life will not stop there, and after the end of the war (whatever its outcome) it will be rebuilt even without a significant decline in civilization. Won in the European part of the USSR in 41, too, all factories were destroyed and taken out, hydroelectric power stations and other power plants were blown up, but all this was restored after the end of the war.
    PS As for the calculations of Soviet and American physicists about the "nuclear winter", we can say the following. First, the calculations were carried out in those years when the number of nuclear weapons on both sides was still many times greater than now. Secondly, within the framework of the Manhattan Project, research was conducted on the safety of a nuclear explosion for the Earth. And part of their working group was strongly convinced that a nuclear chain reaction in the atmosphere would trigger a self-sustaining thermonuclear fusion reaction. One of the scientists was even put in a psychiatric hospital about this before the tests - as eyewitnesses say, he was insane and kept repeating about the end of the world. So their predictions ... they are predictions.
    1. AUL
      0
      2 October 2016 19: 58
      Something you, Eugene, distort!
      1. Yes, the volume of tests for 70 years of nuclear weapons was quite decent. But the tests were carried out for a very long time, and did not bang at once, as in TMV. And this is a big difference. Dialectics, the transition from quantity to quality. In addition, a significant number of tests were carried out underground. Yes, and people were not allowed into dangerous areas (not counting a few cases of "fresh" exercises that they have, that we have).
      2. Power plants will be covered (including nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power stations with dams), oil refineries and oil fields, factories, transportation hubs (they won’t hit the silos, missiles have already flown out for a long time). Industry will be broken and disorganized, even if some factories remain. Remember, when the Union collapsed, the collapse of industry arose simply due to disruption of industrial cooperation. And if part of the factories is physically destroyed - what kind of industry can we talk about?
      3. A significant part of the population will die immediately, even more later. Where will you find a civilian bomb shelter now? Who has a gas mask at home? What to do in the conditions of continuous fires, blockages, floods? Our GO is not only at zero, but in a big minus (I know what I'm talking about, dealt with these issues).
      4. When everything is more or less over, how to restore life? A modern urban resident is unlikely to survive without electricity, gas, and central heating. Not to mention medicine, which will not be. About the word at all. Where to get food? After all, food supplies will either partially die, or fall into the hands of our Effective Managers, they will not reach people.
      I don’t even want to think about the criminal situation. And the army will not help here. And so the National Guard ... What to expect in such conditions from our police, the police must say?
  9. 0
    2 October 2016 03: 50
    Quote: demiurg
    What do you think, neutral warheads will not get? Hell no.

    and fly to Australia?
  10. 0
    2 October 2016 07: 49
    Quote: armored optimist
    Why will all power plants and mines disappear? Most of the warheads are designed to destroy weapons, sorry for the pun. There will be a lot of industrial and energy facilities, transport infrastructure, and runway runways especially. Arsonists can live in shelters with comfort for a long enough time. And then build your own villas in the least affected areas.

    Airfields will survive as concrete strips on the ground. Mines in the form of vertical caves. How long will the power plant last without repair and maintenance of boilers, turbines and generators?
    What are opu villas? Hundreds of millions of people decompose on the go, without food and water.
    Almost all household and industrial electronics from EMR will be covered with a copper basin. And these are not only iPhones, but also machine control units, computers and controllers in production. Even the am injectors will burn out.
  11. 0
    2 October 2016 10: 11
    Quote: Evgeniy Atlasov
    There is an opinion that a softened version of the Third World War has already passed - referring to hundreds of nuclear explosions made by the United States and the USSR as part of atomic weapon tests. Moreover, the explosions were in all environments - and in the atmosphere, and on the ground, and underground and water, and even in space. Of course, the factor of fires and other disasters was not taken into account here, but if we take the purely damaging factors of nuclear weapons - over the years no one has had millions of mutants and the population as a whole has not suffered - except for those who, by chance, were not far from the landfills. .

    Well, firstly, several thousand nuclear explosions were nevertheless extended for almost 1 years.
    Secondly, disease data is likely to be grooved. Of course, there are no millions of mutants, but the number of civilians exposed to radiation from the number of civilians probably goes to tens and hundreds of thousands of people. In the polygon zone, there was probably an increase in oncological diseases, different from other regions, and birth with pathology. What would happen to such a population in the event of a real nuclear war - I do not want to think ...

    Quote: Evgeniy Atlasov
    Therefore, I think that a full-scale conflict will naturally result in colossal damage to industry and infrastructure, millions, if not billions of victims - that is, everything that happens in a world war with "conventional" weapons in at least several years will be done in just one strike. But life will not stop there, and after the end of the war (whatever its outcome) it will be rebuilt even without a significant decline in civilization. Won in the European part of the USSR in 41, too, all factories were destroyed and taken out, hydroelectric power plants and other power plants were blown up, but all this was restored after the end of the war ..

    A somewhat incorrect example. All these regions were rebuilt "not independently," relying on their own resources, but with the help of the entire country. After a nuclear war, there is nowhere to expect help. The decline will be observed, to what extent it is difficult to say, but it will be. And the construction (restoration) process can drag on for tens of years. If at all possible in the foreseeable post-war future
    And certain areas will be contaminated with radiation at first. How long it will last is difficult to predict. It is one thing if a Topol or Yarsa BG explodes, hitting a target - an air force base, and quite another if the same warhead strikes a nuclear power plant located in that area
  12. 0
    2 October 2016 11: 20
    It is clear that missiles will fly to us not only from America.
    In this matter, according to a long tradition, the whole of Europe will be included.
    And then, America has a more developed marine component of the triad.
    1. 0
      10 November 2016 23: 22
      Naturally, even survivors will remain in the affected area. These will be people who find themselves in shelters, subways, hospitals. Hospitals are the centers of survival with all the necessary infrastructure. And this can be used if you connect the peripheral large hospitals with the metro and with each other by underground communications. Here we have in St. Petersburg a large Elizabethan hospital, and next to the huge Vreden Institute of Traumatology - special on the musculoskeletal system. A kilometer, approximately, passes the metro line. Well ... On their basis, you can create a stronghold of salvation and survival. There is still a little further giant hospital No. 122 named after Sokolova ... At a distance of 2,8 km from the metro there are 3 giant medical facilities. God himself ordered to be prepared.
  13. 0
    2 October 2016 11: 42
    Quote: Zomanus
    It is clear that missiles will fly to us not only from America.
    In this matter, according to a long tradition, the whole of Europe will be included.
    And then, America has a more developed marine component of the triad.

    Will turn on. Maybe China will join (or maybe not). In any case, the question of the further development of the strategic nuclear forces of Russia in the context of the development of the strategic nuclear forces of the United States, as the main enemy, has not been removed from the agenda. Although the article, as I wrote earlier, I did not like.
    In-1 About nothing, secondly, the author admits a lot of mistakes, especially with dates
  14. +1
    7 October 2016 12: 57
    [quote = Lex.] Well, yes, in the USA, wherever you throw a megalopolis, they will suffer more in Russia with its boundless territories; you can survive; only the Chinese who get rid of their rivals will benefit from this
  15. 0
    2 December 2016 20: 44
    About the global cooling, as they said little. During the exchange of nuclear strikes, a large volume of suspended particles and water vapor will be thrown into the stratosphere. The Earth will be covered by clouds everywhere, which will shield the planet's surface from solar radiation. A "nuclear winter" will come, which will last for several years. Agriculture will suffer, forests in the tropics and subtropics may die. An ice age may come. Hunger and cold. Will a lot of people survive in this situation?

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